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U.S. DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL REFERENCE RATE

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Can the Brazilian Real Survive its Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate world of global finance, few narratives are as compelling as Brazil's current economic crucible. The Brazilian real stands at a precipice, buffeted by a confluence of domestic policy missteps and international economic pressures that challenge the very foundations of its monetary stability. President Lula's administration finds itself wrestling with a complex challenge: balancing ambitious social spending with the cold, hard realities of fiscal discipline. The currency's dramatic decline—losing nearly 20% of its value in recent months—represents more than a mere statistical fluctuation. It is a profound referendum on investor confidence, reflecting deep-seated concerns about Brazil's economic management. The potential depreciation to 7 reals per dollar looms like a specter, threatening to unleash inflationary pressures that could destabilize the entire economic ecosystem, from local markets to international trade relationships. What emerges is a high-stakes economic drama with global implications. The Brazilian real's struggle is not just a national issue, but a microcosm of the broader challenges facing emerging economies in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape. As central bank governors, international investors, and policymakers watch with bated breath, Brazil stands at a critical juncture—its choices will not only determine its economic trajectory but potentially reshape perceptions of emerging market resilience in the face of unprecedented economic volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDBRL might be building its 3rd impulsive wave.Not a financial advice. To support Biden's plan "Invest in America", FED will need to keep raising interest rates to contain #inflation, and make it attractive for international investors. Meanwhile, Brazilian economy is shrinking, with President looking to lower interest rates which it is what was done in 2003. but this time is indeed different, since the USA isn't willing to see its money plowing into emerging markets. TVC:DXY is also building a nice comeback. this is momentarily about to change in my POV.
Long
by thepixel
7
USDBRL_1W_Buyhello Analysis of the Brazilian real in the medium and long term Elliott wave analysis style The market is in an upward trend and in the medium term we are in wave 3, which wave 3 includes 5 waves. The target of wave 3 is 6.5500 and again we can have a correction as wave 4 to 5.8800 and continue to climb for the big wave 5 towards 7.4400 Sincerely, I am a dear Brazilian and the country is extremely beautiful and the entire continent of America ends in the great country of Brazil. I traveled around the continent of America in 2024 and I have not seen a country like Brazil, especially Sao Paulo. I wish all the best for Brazil
Long
by Elliottwaveofficial
4
U.S DOLLAR vs BRAZILIAN REALHowdy fellas, I am Brazilian by origin so this matters to me. It's a chart that I always check, as I every now and then exchange these currencies (as well as the euro related to Brazilian real). Now we all know at some point the dollar index needs to take a step back and retrace. It could continue to push higher against other world currencies, but that wouldn't be very good. So unless we're headed for a new world depression, I believe the Gods will allow it do drop. With that being said, a very decent retrace is the 30% mark that brings it down to the $4 bucks. But if it repeats the 60% retrace as it did back in 2008 we're looking a much lower numbers. Take a look at the chart my friends and let me know what you think. Trade thirsty!
by mr_willmedina
2
Send this down to 1 and its over for USDBRICS composite basket index vs USD BRICS currently accounts for 40%+ of the global population and 25%+ of global trade. Lessening reliance on USD will benefit their economies greatly regards cross border trade amongst members. Current additional applications to join the bloc have been received from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Algeria, Venezuela, Kazakhstan (all major energy markets) amongst others. All empires rise and fall, both economic and geographic... some more destructive than others. One to keep an eye on over next century.
Short
by LordEido
2
Dollar performance since 2022This is to demistify some ideas regarding the dollar: 1 - The yuan will replace the dollar as the universal legal tender. It's true that the US government "printed" a lot of money during the Covid pandemic and since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thus the dollar was weakened by inflation and the US national debt. But while that is true it has appreciated over the yuan and the ruble. 2 - The recent drop in USD/BRL is a long term trend. The currency of non-aligned (regarding the war in Ukraine) countries slighted benefited from the recent comparative weakness of the dollar. What is special about Brazil is the high interest rate which puts the country ahed of the World in controlling inflation and makes the country super attractive to bond investors. But the Brazilian economy is plagued by internal issues and not growing as much as the rest of the World. So eventually the Central Bank of Brazil will reduce the interest rate because the inflation is getting under control and the dollar will recoup value due to the investments outflow.
Long
by wolfiebr
4
Real vs Dollar = Infinite rise for the Dollar!-Comparing the Brazilian real with the US dollar means wasting time, as we know that the final result will always be an infinite increase in the US currency against the Brazilian currency. -Below I leave the beautiful pattern "CUP And Handle" formed and consolidated. -As Charles Dow said: "Prices discount everything". -Things usually take time to materialize, but they will never stop happening at a given future moment. -Also read the graphic analysis below! -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other graphic reviews!
by MacD_Bollinger
2
USD BRL chart Analysis EN and PT language On a weekly time frame, the Brazilian Real has experienced a downward trend since 2011. There are several reasons that have contributed to the market's inflation and the weakening of the Brazilian economy against the US Dollar. These reasons include factors such as job vacancies, high crime rates, corruption, and a complex tax system. The chart analysis indicates that the waves from 2011 to 2023 can be identified as five distinct waves, with wave 5 ending at 6 Brazilian Reals for 1 US Dollar. This signifies the continuous decline of the Brazilian economy over the years relative to the United States Dollars . In 2020, the Brazilian Real reached its highest exchange rate of 6 Reals for 1 Dollar, primarily due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. From a technical analysis perspective, this peak could be considered the end of wave 5, which had started in 2011 and lasted until 2020. Following the peak of wave 5, a correction phase began, resulting in complex wave corrections known as WXYXZ waves. In my opinion, this correction was influenced by various economic problems in the United States, including the closure of many banks and a substantial increase in national debt, which exceeded 1.4 trillion dollars for the first time in 30 years. Additionally, the Ukrainian War also had an impact on the value of the US Dollar. These factors are likely to have a positive effect on the Brazilian economy since Brazil stands in a different position from the United States in terms of economic conditions. Moreover, Brazil implemented several changes at the beginning of 2023, such as the decision made by BRICS members to use their local currencies for official transactions, reducing dependence on the US Dollar. Considering the current exchange rate of around 5 Reals for 1 Dollar, it is possible that the price may experience a slight increase as part of the (x) wave. However, by the end of the year, it is expected to start moving downwards, reaching a range between 4.5 and 4.2 Reals for 1 Dollar. This downward movement would mark the completion of the Z wave, concluding the overall wave cycle. It is important to note that further developments and news will shape the future chart for the Brazilian Real. Economic and geopolitical events can have significant impacts on currency exchange rates, and these factors should be carefully monitored to assess the potential direction of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar. BY Rami Rachid HiddenTreausre portuguese : Em um período semanal, o Real Brasileiro tem experimentado uma tendência de queda desde 2011. Existem várias razões que têm contribuído para a inflação do mercado e o enfraquecimento da economia brasileira em relação ao Dólar Americano. Essas razões incluem fatores como vagas de emprego, altas taxas de criminalidade, corrupção e um sistema tributário complexo. A análise do gráfico indica que as ondas de 2011 a 2023 podem ser identificadas como cinco ondas distintas, com a onda 5 terminando em 6 Reais Brasileiros por 1 Dólar Americano. Isso significa o declínio contínuo da economia brasileira ao longo dos anos em relação ao Dólar dos Estados Unidos. Em 2020, o Real Brasileiro atingiu sua maior taxa de câmbio de 6 Reais por 1 Dólar, principalmente devido ao impacto da pandemia de COVID-19. Do ponto de vista da análise técnica, esse pico poderia ser considerado o fim da onda 5, que havia começado em 2011 e durado até 2020. Após o pico da onda 5, uma fase de correção começou, resultando em correções complexas conhecidas como ondas WXYXZ. Na minha opinião, essa correção foi influenciada por diversos problemas econômicos nos Estados Unidos, incluindo o fechamento de muitos bancos e um aumento substancial na dívida nacional, que ultrapassou 1,4 trilhão de dólares pela primeira vez em 30 anos. Além disso, a Guerra da Ucrânia também teve impacto no valor do Dólar Americano. Esses fatores provavelmente terão um efeito positivo na economia brasileira, uma vez que o Brasil ocupa uma posição diferente dos Estados Unidos em termos de condições econômicas. Além disso, o Brasil implementou várias mudanças no início de 2023, como a decisão dos membros do BRICS de utilizar suas moedas locais para transações oficiais, reduzindo a dependência do Dólar Americano. Considerando a taxa de câmbio atual de cerca de 5 Reais por 1 Dólar, é possível que o preço possa ter um leve aumento como parte da onda (x). No entanto, até o final do ano, espera-se que comece a se mover para baixo, alcançando uma faixa entre 4,5 e 4,2 Reais por 1 Dólar. Esse movimento descendente marcaria a conclusão da onda Z, encerrando o ciclo geral de ondas. É importante observar que desenvolvimentos e notícias futuras moldarão o gráfico futuro para o Real Brasileiro. Eventos econômicos e geopolíticos podem ter impactos significativos nas taxas de câmbio, e esses fatores devem ser monitorados cuidadosamente para avaliar a direção potencial do Real Brasileiro em relação ao Dólar Americano. POR Rami Rachid HiddenTreausre
by Htback
2
Dollar / Real (Brazil) possible targetting higher levelsTarget one is reached. Usually after a beautiful cup and handle like this one, we see further upward price actions. Fundamentally, I don't think Real will sustain this trend of being valued, since the current president is a former prisioner charged for corruption and recently has been seen in Dubai with his 30y younger spouse in a hotel costing 60,000 reais per person by night, using public money to afford the expenses. Taxation is going nuts all over the country again, the previous president had cut them all, and now they are all being reinstalled. Inflation will hit and it's interesting to watch the DXY chart. I am keeping my earning in dollars as long as I follow the continuation here.
Long
by RaposaRacer