inflation is acceleratingSwitch the US dollars for savings. Brazil real will reach $.2. I have no idea what's causing it, only that the trend lines say stay in US dollars.
USDBRX trade ideas
cup and handle I see pattern cup and handle, and we can see either that USD/BRL being following this channel since 2011, so lets see if the price its going to hit the resistance of this upper channel.
US Dollar x Brazilian Real - Gravity will have its say?The USD has reached a strong resistance once again. Besides, the USD price has gone too far from the EMA200, there we can say the USD has become 'expensive'.
To enforce my short-term bearish view, comes the divergence between the price direction and both MACD and RSI. That's a strong indication that this bullish move has exhausted its strenght during its climbing.
Let us see if gravity will have its say in this situation.
Resistance areas: R$4.30 ~ R$4.60
Support areas: R$4.00 ~ R$3.80
Brazilian Real under fire - USDBRL Macro OutlookThe Brazilian Real remains under fire due to a weakening commodity outlook, continued coronavirus concerns and impacts on LATAM/emerging market assets, revisions in inflationary outlook (down to 3.25% for 2020) and subsequent shifts in future monetary stimulus, high gross debt to GDP (~80%) and continued capital outflow from asset markets.
All within a risk-off climate supporting dollar bids.
We continue to see compelling evidence for a leg higher from a technical perspective with price supported by its 52-Week Moving Average, completion of the first corrective leg and an extension into our macro swing target of 5.00xx. Around a +16.00% move on the cards from here.
We have added buyside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios.
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$USDBRL Update....testing the big breakout level (---)Would target 5.40 (+26%) and would likely be driven by China slowdown-Coronavirus
Approximately 27% of Brazilian exports go to China
Currently 90m people in lock down and Bloomberg estimates 69% of Chinese GDP shut this week
Does it re-open next week or further lock downs?
USD/BRL will continue to move higher in the following daysThe pair will continue to move higher in the following days to reach its all-time high. The US trade deficit with China falls in 2019, its first time in six (6) years. Yesterday, February 05, the Commerce Department said deficit slips by 1.7%. Imports tumbled 1.7% while exports decrease by 1.3%. The curb in trades were amid the trade war between the two (2) largest economies and Trumpโs โAmerica Firstโ policy. On December 14, the two (2) countries began to de-escalate their trade war by signing the phase one trade deal. Under the deal, China will need to increase its import of US agricultural products to a total of $40 billion annually. This will be catastrophic for Brazil who benefited during the heights of trade war. Before the phase one trade deal, Brazil accounts for 80% of total Chinese soybean imports. The deal already outshines the report published by Brazil. The country said its soybean output increased by 8% from the previous year.
$USDBRLBrazilian Real at long term resistance...again
Exports to China is material and thus exposed to #Coronavirus = slowing Chinese growth
Real BrasileroDรณlar en Brasil marca nuevos records con un velรณn tremendo por encima de los 4,28 reales.
Si no corrige pronto se pone fulero.
USDBRL - Highest monthly close everUSDBRL - Highest monthly close ever
The Cup and Handle is happening
USDBRL AT ALL TIME HIGH - MTF ANALYSISIn this video we are looking MTF analysis. USDBRL is at all time high. We will think only going longs, not shorts.
Note: Sorry for my english. I tried my best :)
USD/BRL failed to breakout from a major resistance line๐น๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ ๐ช๐ ๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ค ๐๐๐๐, ๐ก๐๐๐๐ค๐, ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐ฅ๐ ๐ค๐ฆ๐ก๐ก๐ ๐ฃ๐ฅ ๐๐ช ๐จ๐ ๐ฃ๐.
๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ก๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฅ.
The pair failed to breakout from a major resistance line, sending the pair higher towards a major support line. The populist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has been leading South America since his election in January 2019. Known as the โTrump of South Americaโ, he was able to gain full support for his plan to revive the largest trading bloc in the continent, the Mercosur, and banned Venezuela from the group. A recent report accuses Bolsonaro of orchestrating attacks to overthrow Nicholas Maduro. This comes at a time where the US has been very critical of the country, backing the opposition leader Juan Guaido to become Venezuelaโs interim president. Moreover, Jair Bolsonaro praised the US for backing Brazil to become the newest member of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). Washington previously backed Argentina, Brazilโs main economic rival, to become the next member of the group.
Usd/brl.... dollar x brazilian realDollar play a main role in brazilian economy and we have always to pay attention to it`s trend. Right now it has change and we got into a upside with try the resistance up. Dollar 4.25? Who knows? We are not here to try to predict the future but to follow the trend.
Diamond, the most powerfull figure of tech analysisThis figures preceeds a huge movement, depending on which direction will occur a breakout. Place your bets!
ridethepig | BRL 2020 Macro MapThis train is picking up speed and as most of those who follow the Brazilian chart updates will know there is now momentum via Bolsonaro's pension reform. This is giving consumers the ability to drive growth into 2020 and beyond via things like credit and the appropriate monetary policy.
Inflation is still coming down which means CB can keep lower rates, this will provide profit taking and reloading opportunities in 2020. For those really wanting to dig deeper into the flows, retail housing market will be a useful gauge to the next chapter as it will highlight the pace / acceleration of the pick-up.
On the technical side, a very clean 5 wave sequence over a multi year period. What we are trading here is the ABC corrective leg via Brazil momentum and capturing a double whammy with USD devaluation. Here tracking 3.70x as the level in play for USDBRL in 2020 macro flows, I also favour BRL on other crosses in particular versus MXN:
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. We can open the Brazil conversation here for the year ahead. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies I have attached them in the related charts.
US Dollar x Brazilian RealAfter the US Dollar has reached the last resistance around R$4.25, it has gone through a strong correction, slowing down exactly at EMA200. It is clear for us Brazilians that we have now a very good opportunity to buy more US Dollars to add to our greater Portfolio allocation.
USD/BRL - WEEK CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about USDBRL and its current landscape.
The emerging markets today can face an increase of volatility and perhaps pessimism as Trump's stated that will reinstate Steel and Aluminum tariffs for Brazil and Argentina since, in his perspective, both countries are devaluating their currencies to be "unfairly" competitive in the sale of agricultural goods, which is harmful to U.S farmers. We must remember that since the beginning of the Trade War, China has stepped into the gas pedal in buying Brazilian agricultural goods, and the Brazilian currency has reached new record lows against the U.S dollar after falling more than 8% this year, which theoretically bases Trump's argument. This could be bad news for the market if imply a new Trade War front against these Latam countries that don't have China firepower to sustain a tariff battle against the U.S.
Trump's movement could be interpreted as an endeavor to take these competitors of the road, to try to suffocate China's lifeline of agricultural goods, and maybe force them to become more friendly with the idea of expanding their spending on U.S agrarian goods.
For Brazil, it's tough news to swallow since its foreign policy during Bolsonaro mandate, has been based in bending the knee for the Trump, without asking nothing meaningfully in return, which has already pushed away other emerging countries from had a closer relationship with the country. Now Brazil has a hard lesson to learn that in the sovereignty game if you behave like a vassal, you can be discarded like one.
For the future perspective, the dilemma is that if the Brazilian government intervene in its currency and stop or even reverse the devaluation, they might hurt their support among Brazilian farmers that are the bedrock of this government, but if they keep the devaluation U.S could impose another round of tariffs and push the country to a brink of an economic crisis, now itโs up to Bolsonaro administration to rule the fate of the country, since Trump isn't to going to show any mercy in his strategy to be re-elected.
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