USDCAD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
USDCAD: Confirmed Bearish Reversal📉 USDCAD has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.
After the release of US economic data yesterday, the price dropped sharply, breaking below the pattern's neckline.
This morning, the pair is retesting the broken neckline and moving lower, indicating the potential for further downside.
The next key support level to watch is 1.4244.
Bearish momentumUSD/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibo retracement and could reverse from this level to the downside.
UsdCad Sell setupUS DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR📊
TREND: BEARISH📉
Price rejected demand zone from previously shared setup leading to a break-even trade. Price later gave impulse (new york session) to the downside and left imbalance. We can anticipate price will react to our premium supply before continuing to the downside as current orderflow is bearish.
Good luck!🔥
USDCAD SELL TrendUSDCAD
🐻 The price is in the decline, rebounding from the crucial 1.4320 resistance zone.
Bearish crude oil prices and trade wars with the US are undermining the commodity-linked loonie and acting as a tailwind for the USDCAD pair's decline
The Momentum oscillator crosses the 100-level down, confirms the increasing bearish sentiment.
#TradeIdea
🔽 We consider selling USDCAD;
🎯 Target: 1.4245;
🎯 Target: 1.4172;
usdcad biasa possible retest on the key level area before the continued down trend. Also a possibility of not reaching the key level so look out for a confirmation to join to the downside
change the trendIt is expected that a trend change will form within the current support range and we will witness the start of an upward trend. A break of the resistance trend line will be a confirmation of the upward trend.
USDCAD: Bearish Reversal ConfirmedThe 📉USDCAD pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.
Following the release of US economic data yesterday, the price quickly fell and broke below the pattern's neckline.
This morning, the price is currently testing the broken neckline and heading below it.
This suggests that we may see further downward movement in the price.
The next level of support to watch for is at 1.4244.
Trendline break and Rising channelsThe price broke a bullish trendline and a rising channel followed by 3 pullbacks, this a strong sign of an upcoming bearish impulse, I have put my sell stop order and it's time to short
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
Dxy bullish bias tomorrow friday 07/03/2025 High Impact NEWS:NFPThe most important thing is that we wait for the manipulation to pass , we see what price doing tomorrow OANDA:USDCAD
Could the price bounce from here?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.4260
1st Support: 1.4154
1st Resistance: 1.4366
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USDCAD BUYING SETUP USDCAD is showing a strong bullish setup, indicating a potential buying opportunity. The price is holding above key support levels, suggesting that buyers may soon take control.
If price sustains above the support zone and confirms with bullish candlestick patterns or breakout signals, we could see an upward move toward the next resistance levels.
Traders should wait for proper confirmations before entering and manage risk wisely. Stay alert for the next bullish move! 📈🔥
Technical Analysis by Ali Khan
USDCAD- Sell IdeaUSDCAD is in a bearish trend as it is making LHs and LLs. Look for a selling opportunity at the retracements or break and retest of resistance zones.
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4240
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.4160
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.4364
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDCAD SELL OPPORTUNITY!USDCAD has been on a clear Downward and has a high probability to continue selling after we had a further decline in price at the early hours of New York session. A sell opportunity is envisaged from the current market price.
USD/CAD Short Trade SetupJust entered a bearish position on USD/CAD at 1.4350 with clear technical alignment. Price reached our sell zone after recent rejection from higher levels.
Trade Details:
Entry: 1.4350 (sell zone)
Stop Loss: 1.4420 (above recent swing high)
Take Profit 1: 1.4260 (previous support)
Take Profit 2: 1.4150 (major support)
Risk-Reward: 1:2 for first target, 1:3.5 for second target
Price showing bearish momentum on multiple timeframes. The 1H chart confirms resistance at our entry level, while the 4H chart shows plenty of room to move down toward targets.
Will update as trade progresses. Planning to secure partial profits at TP1 and move stop to breakeven for remainder.
USDCAD Will Fall to 1.42446 The US dollar just took a big hit against the Canadian dollar, dropping all the way to 1.42446. This could be due to a weaker USD, stronger oil prices (which help Canada), or some big market moves. Traders are now watching closely to see if this is just a quick drop or the start of a bigger downtrend.
ABOUT USDCADMy option about usdcad Is more bullish so that zone is good and strong support,if the price comes to that zone it can pullback
USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Market Money Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent / swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (1.44500) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 1.39500 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook before start the plan.
USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Market is currently experiencing a bearish trend,., driven by several key factors.
1. Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis evaluates the economic indicators of the United States and Canada that directly impact the USD/CAD exchange rate.
United States Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: Forecasted at 2.0% to 2.5% for 2025, suggesting steady but slowing economic expansion.
Inflation: Stable at approximately 2.5% to 3.0%, with recent data showing no significant surprises.
Interest Rates: Currently at 4.50%, with the Federal Reserve potentially considering cuts later in 2025 if economic growth weakens.
Trade Balance: The US maintains a persistent trade deficit, though it remains manageable given the broader economic context.
Canada Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: Projected at 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025, indicating moderate growth heavily tied to commodity exports.
Inflation: Around 2.0%, stable but sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices.
Interest Rates: Set at 3.0%, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) likely to hold steady or adjust slightly based on incoming economic data.
Trade Balance: Mixed, with oil exports being a critical driver of the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Key Insight: The interest rate differential (4.50% in the US vs. 3.0% in Canada) currently supports the USD. However, declining oil prices—a key factor for Canada—and potential Fed rate cuts introduce uncertainty into the fundamental picture.
2. Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic conditions provide a broader context for currency movements, encompassing global and country-specific trends.
Global GDP Growth: Expected to range between 3.0% and 3.3% in 2025, reflecting moderate global economic expansion.
US Economy: Exhibits signs of slowing growth, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious stance, potentially leading to rate cuts if economic conditions deteriorate.
Canadian Economy: Strongly influenced by commodity prices, especially oil, which has faced volatility due to global supply and demand dynamics.
Central Bank Policies: The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, while the BoC remains data-dependent, with possible rate adjustments if inflation or growth shifts significantly.
Geopolitical Events: Trade tensions, including US-imposed tariffs, could pressure Canada’s economy, potentially weakening the CAD.
Key Insight: Macroeconomic factors present a mixed outlook. Moderate global growth supports risk assets, but trade tensions and central bank caution create uncertainty for USD/CAD.
3. Global Market Analysis
Global market conditions influence currency pairs through risk sentiment and economic interdependencies.
Equity Markets: US and global equity indices are range-bound, reflecting uncertainty and mixed economic signals.
Commodity Prices: Oil prices are under pressure, a bearish factor for the CAD given Canada’s role as a major oil exporter.
Currency Markets: The USD shows strength against some currencies but weakness against others, lacking a dominant trend.
Key Insight: Weak oil prices act as a headwind for the CAD, potentially pushing USD/CAD higher, though broader market uncertainty moderates this effect.
4. Commitment of Traders (COT) Data
COT data offers insights into the positioning of large traders, shedding light on market sentiment.
Large Speculators: Recent trends indicate a net short position on USD/CAD, suggesting bearish sentiment among big players.
Commercial Traders: Positioning is mixed, with some hedging activity reflecting uncertainty in the market.
Market Implications: The net short stance among speculators points to a bearish outlook, but it also raises the possibility of a crowded trade, increasing the risk of a short squeeze if the pair rallies.
Key Insight: Bearish sentiment prevails among large traders, aligning with technical signals, though the concentration of shorts could lead to volatility.
5. Intermarket Analysis
Intermarket analysis examines correlations between USD/CAD and other asset classes.
Oil Prices: A strong inverse correlation exists between USD/CAD and oil prices. Falling oil prices typically strengthen USD/CAD by weakening the CAD.
Commodity Currencies: USD/CAD often aligns with movements in other commodity-linked currencies like AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
Equity Markets: A risk-on environment (rising equities) can pressure the USD downward, while risk-off sentiment bolsters it.
Key Insight: Declining oil prices provide a bullish tilt for USD/CAD, but this is tempered by mixed risk sentiment across global markets.
6. Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative analysis employs technical indicators to assess price trends and momentum.
Moving Averages: The pair is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bearish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 45, the RSI is neutral but approaching oversold territory, hinting at potential downside exhaustion.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Positioned in negative territory, indicating bearish momentum.
Chart Patterns: A bear flag pattern has been noted, with a potential downside target near 1.3164, suggesting further declines.
Key Insight: Technical indicators predominantly point to a bearish trend, with the possibility of additional downside if key support levels are breached.
7. Market Sentiment Analysis
Market sentiment reflects the collective psychology of traders and investors.
Trader Sentiment: Surveys and positioning data indicate a bearish bias, with traders anticipating further declines in USD/CAD.
Expert Opinions: Analysts largely recommend selling the pair, citing both technical and fundamental weaknesses.
Social Media Trends: Discussions on platforms like X reveal mixed views, with some predicting a drop to 1.4000 and others warning of potential reversals.
Key Insight: Sentiment leans bearish, consistent with technical indicators and COT data, reinforcing expectations of a downward move.
8. Positioning
Positioning reveals how traders are aligned in the market, influencing potential price dynamics.
Speculative Positions: Likely net short, based on COT data and sentiment surveys, indicating widespread bearish bets.
Institutional Positioning: Mixed, with some institutions hedging against possible USD weakness.
Market Impact: The heavy short positioning could trigger volatility if the pair moves against the consensus, such as in a short squeeze scenario.
Key Insight: Bearish positioning dominates, heightening the risk of a sharp reversal if positive USD catalysts emerge.
9. Next Trend Move
The next likely price movement is derived from current data and market conditions.
Direction: Downward pressure is favored, driven by technical sell signals and bearish sentiment.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.4150; a break below could target 1.4000 or lower.
Resistance: 1.4500; a move above could signal a trend reversal.
Triggers: Upcoming economic data releases, central bank statements, or shifts in oil prices could catalyze the next move.
Key Insight: The next trend move is likely to test lower support levels, potentially reaching 1.39500 if bearish momentum continues.
10. Overall Summary Outlook
Overview: On March 6, 2025, with USD/CAD at 1.43000, the pair exhibits a bearish outlook. Technical indicators, bearish trader positioning, and market sentiment suggest downside risks. However, fundamental factors—such as declining oil prices and potential trade tensions—could provide some support for the pair. The market is at a pivotal point, with price action near key support levels likely to dictate the next direction.
Future Prediction
Trend: Bearish (Short-Term), with Potential for Reversal
Details:
Short-Term: The pair is poised to test support at 1.41500, with a possible decline to 1.39000 if this level breaks. This outlook is driven by technical weakness and bearish sentiment.
Risks: A reversal could occur if oil prices rebound or if US economic data exceeds expectations, potentially pushing the pair toward 1.39000.
Conclusion: The short-term forecast favors a bearish trend, supported by prevailing technical and sentiment signals. However, fundamental factors like oil prices and trade policies could cap downside or trigger a reversal, warranting close monitoring of upcoming data and events.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
USDCAD...PULLBACK OR REVERSAL? Hello TradingView family! Hope you guys are all doing fantastic! Just wanted to come on here and provide some insight for you guys on USDCAD based on my 13 years of experience in these markets and with technical trading...SO let's dive in!
OK so I am going to keep it very simple on this post for what I may see for USDCAD. You know what...lets go old school and do some bullet points for my bias...HERE WE GO
1. Failed to break multi year highs around 1.46800 zone of price (although it tried coming as high as 1.47800)
2. Gave a fake out (false breakout) above these highs
3. Very strong response from the seller (I like to say BOOM or BAM!)
4. #1 sign of a reversal is power/strength (which those sellers displayed)
5. Buyer has struggled to respond to that seller move (showing the seller dominance)
6. Fib retracement alignment/ Fib extension alignment (with a downward move happening)
7. New zones of supply created
etc...etc...etc.
I think you guys can see my point :) Lots of confluence! Lots of momentum! Lots of seller...stuff! SO what is next as a analyst/trader? WAIT...a traders least favorite word lol
We must wait to see how this pullback (if we get one) comes in to show us the true dominance of the seller and the buyers showing us they are slowing down...because TECHNICALLY price is still in a uptrend...BUT my bias lies behind this being a REVERSAL...keep your eyes out!
IF you guys enjoyed show some love boost this post, follow my page & comment if you'd like! Looking forward to the next time & hope this gives you all some good nuggets to use!
Cheers!
Canadian dollar higher as US suspends auto tariffsThe Canadian dollar is steady on Thursday after gaining around 1% over the past two days. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4351, up 0.07% on the day. We could see some volatility from the Canadian dollar over the next two days, with the release of the Ivey PMI today and the employment report on Friday.
The Trump tariff saga took a twist on Wednesday, as the US announced it would exempt automakers in Canada and Mexico from 25% tariffs for 30 days provided they complied with existing free trade rules. Trump made clear that the trade war between the US and its two neighbors was not over.
Trump has been shooting from the hip, imposing, suspending, and re-imposing tariffs against Canada. Is this merely a heavy-handed negotiation tactic? If so, chances are good that a deal can be reached and a damaging trade war can be averted. Canada can ill afford a trade war with the US, as some 75% of Canadian exports head to its southern neighbor. A trade war would tip the weak Canadian economy into a recession.
The Bank of Canada is nervously watching as trade tensions escalate between Ottawa and Washington. The BoC has said that a trade war with the US would inflict "permanent" damage on Canada's economy and boost inflation. The BoC is in the midst of an easing cycle and a trade war would complicate plans to futher lower rates.
Canada's Ivey PMI fell sharply in January to 47.1 from 54.7, its first contraction in five months. The PMI is expected to rebound in February, with a market estimate of 50.6, which would point to stagnation. On Friday, Canada and the US release employment reports.
143.75 and 144.19 are the next resistance lines
There is support at 143.00 and 142.56
SHort USDCADShort usdcad, as per given entry. usdcad break their support and at 4h timeframe and making low levels.
