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Trump's tariffs: Latin America's rejection & global responseby Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst Toughening immigration policies and their effect on the U.S. economy. Since coming to power, Donald Trump has implemented policies that have negatively affected Latin American immigrants in the United States. The tightening of immigration laws, the elimination of protection programs and mass deportations have led to an exodus of workers who previously held key positions in key sectors of the U.S. economy. The construction of the border wall, the reinforcement of immigration patrols and restrictions on asylum applications have made it even more difficult for Latin American migrants to arrive and stay. The economic impact of these decisions has been significant. Many vacancies in construction, agriculture and hospitality, traditionally occupied by immigrants, have gone unfilled. This has generated productivity problems and has forced companies to look for alternatives, such as wage increases or task automation, to compensate for the lack of workers. Canada and Mexico hit back with tariffs Internationally, Trump's protectionist measures have generated a strong backlash. The imposition of tariffs on countries such as Mexico and Canada has triggered an adverse response: both countries have announced trade retaliation against the United States. Mexico has increased tariffs on key U.S. export products, such as steel and agricultural products, affecting the economy of the states producing these goods. Canada has taken similar measures, increasing tariff rates in strategic sectors. These trade conflicts have weakened relations between these countries and have prompted Mexico and Canada to diversify their markets, reducing their dependence on the U.S. and strengthening cooperation with other trading blocs. Colombia and its accession to the BRICS In this context, Colombia has made a strategic decision to join the BRICS bloc, aligning itself with emerging economies such as China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa. This decision responds in part to the need to seek new trade allies in the face of the uncertainty generated by Trump's policies. In addition, Colombia seeks to benefit from new investment and financing opportunities from the BRICS, in an effort to reduce its dependence on U.S. markets. Colombia's accession to this bloc marks a shift in Latin American geopolitics, where several countries are exploring alternatives to Washington's influence. The growing presence of China and Russia in the region reinforces this trend, offering financing and trade agreements that are attractive to many Latin American nations. U.S. isolationism The result of these policies has been a growing isolation of the United States in the region. Latin America, as a bloc, has shown a resounding rejection of the Trump administration, which has not only deteriorated diplomatic relations, but has also generated a deep distrust in its leadership. This rejection has spread to several European countries, where the perception of Trump as an unreliable and even con artist leader has been growing. The US withdrawal from key international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, has exacerbated these tensions and weakened the country's credibility on the global stage. Internal divisions in the Republican Party Even within his own country, a portion of his traditional Republican constituency has begun to distance itself. Many conservatives do not see his policies as representative of classic Republican values, but rather as a manifestation of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, which has evolved into an increasingly radicalized stance. The MAGA movement has redefined the Republican agenda during since Trump's attempt to regain his position in the presidency after Biden's Democratic victory and continued during his last campaign that led to his electoral victory, focusing on economic nationalism, protectionism and an anti-immigrant rhetoric that has generated friction within the party itself. Influential Republican figures have expressed concern about the direction the party has taken under Trump's influence, which could affect its long-term electoral viability. Impact on currencies: EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/MXN. Trump's policies have had a considerable effect on currency markets, generating volatility and sharp movements in the currency pairs most exposed to his decisions. - EUR/USD: The uncertainty generated by Trump's protectionist policies, coupled with the trade war with China and the global slowdown, has led the dollar to experience ups and downs against the euro. In times of stress, investors have traditionally sought refuge in the dollar, strengthening it against the euro, this has been noticeable after the presidential candidate's victory and prior to his official appointment. However, as the implementation of measures that weaken confidence in the U.S. economy has begun, the euro could regain ground despite its palpable weakness. There is a growing consensus on the need for further rate cuts by the ECB, suggesting that Christine Lagarde will soon cut 25 basis points this week and the rate-cutting cycle will be extended. Although the impact of US policies is not predictable in the short term, the ECB intends to play the cards it has in hand to try to ease tensions. A Europe trying to negotiate with Mercosur and seeking to remedy Europe's growing tensions in anticipation of growth doubts and rising inflation risk may indicate that it could miss the ECB's targets set since December. This will bring the deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% this week. Markets have already discounted this figure and analysts' consensus seems overwhelming. Purchasing managers' indices (PMI) have shown slight improvements especially in Germany, although without leaving a picture of general eurozone weakness. Now the biggest challenge for the ECB seems to be that all monetary policy decisions are being made in the shadow of the head of the White House. The Euro has been moving in a range between 1.048 and 1.017 with its current price at $1.031, one of the lowest prices since September 2024 where it was trading at 1.12 very marked correction by US strength and European devolvement. Currently the Euro seems to be trying to hold its lows position as support, we will have to see if European policies and the economic rise will prevent the currency from continuing its path to the Eurodollar parity. - USD/CAD: Trade tensions with Canada, stemming from tariffs and the renegotiation of the T-MEC (USMCA), have influenced the volatility of this pair. The Canadian economy, highly dependent on trade with the US, has been negatively impacted, weakening the Canadian dollar at certain periods. However, the resilience of the Canadian energy sector and agreements with other trading partners have allowed the CAD to recover on several occasions. The Bank of Canada's monetary policy has been to reduce its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, on the basis that inflation is around the 2% target. These actions reflect an expansionary monetary policy aimed at stimulating the Canadian economy by reducing the cost of credit and encouraging investment and consumption. The Bank of Canada has indicated that it will continue to closely monitor economic conditions and inflation developments to determine future monetary policy adjustments. Since December 19, the Canadian dollar had sustained trading in a range between 1,443 and 1,448, which was pierced yesterday. To new highs of 1.479 Canadian dollars per US dollar. This movement has been in anticipation of the possible trade slowdown that may occur at the US borders and in addition to the US PMI production data (51.2) which yesterday was better than the previous month (50.1) versus the Canadian (51.6) which was worse than the previous month (52.3). - USD/MXN: The US-Mexico relationship has been one of the most affected by Trump's policies. Anti-immigrant rhetoric, the threat of tariffs and the renegotiation of the T-MEC have generated constant fluctuations in the Mexican peso. In times of stress, the USD/MXN has shown strong dollar appreciation, reflecting the uncertainty in the markets. However, Mexico's trade diversification and its strengthening in other blocs have allowed the currency to stabilize in the medium term. The economic policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) aims to adjust its inflation by making gradual rate adjustments. For example, in September 2024, the rate was reduced by 25 points to around 10.50%. Annual inflation stood at 4.21% in December according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). In order to face global volatility, Mexico took the initiative to accumulate its international reserves exceeding 228 billion dollars in January 2025. If we take IMF data from 2024 Mexico is in a situation of economic and financial stability in the face of negative external shocks, and being that the IMF considers a level of 100 to 150% in its ARA indicator, Mexico accumulated 117.1% in 2023, so this increase only improves its level of international solvency. While it is true that in 2021 (4.63%) the interest rate was at its lowest since 2015 (3.32%), the increase in inflation since the pandemic period has been correcting from 11.4% in 2023 to the current value. A -1.15% inflation compared to two years ago. On the other hand, looking at the currency and its behavior, since September 2024 the value of the dollar has been gaining strength and its growth range has widened, gradually devaluing the peso. Up to yesterday's high of 1.479. The range in which it had been since the second half of December between 1.428 and 1.448 has been forcefully pierced yesterday. As we have said quite possibly due to the US strength data. Conclusion: A legacy of uncertainty and rejection. Trump's legacy in international politics continues to be debated. However, it is undeniable that his decisions have provoked a unified reaction of rejection in Latin America and many other parts of the world. While some sectors of the U.S. economy have experienced short-term benefits from his protectionist policies, the long-term impact could translate into a loss of global influence and reduced competitiveness in international markets. The United States now faces the challenge of rebuilding its relations with its traditional allies and redefining its role on the global stage. Mexico and Canada have taken a “wait and see” approach, although some countries such as Colombia and Honduras have already begun to make decisions against the U.S. In particular, Honduras was already making an issue of the amount of “allowances” being sent to the country to help families subsist and grow from the U.S., not the only country that relies heavily on legal or illegal immigrants making a living as best they can and sending capital back to their families. There is no doubt that the inflationary war that Trump is generating with his tariffs, will affect Canada, Mexico, and of course the United States itself, as the main affected by this inflation. Europe and China will be in the second row. Mexico and Canada, seeing the rejection of the U.S. administration, could begin to look for local substitutes for their imports, and have begun to relabel products in supermarkets to differentiate national products from U.S. products and encourage local consumption. What is clear is that Trump's policies have left an imprint of uncertainty and polarization both domestically and internationally. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
by ActivTrades
Will USD/CAD Stay Bullish Despite Paused U.S Tariff Plan?From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend for the MARKETSCOM:USDCAD currency pair remains bullish, as indicated by higher highs and higher lows supported by the upward trendline. The bullish trend began in late September with the formation of a double bottom, signaling strong bullish momentum. Recently, price action successfully broke through the oscillating channel to the upside, accompanied by a gap up and significant bullish momentum, primarily driven by Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Canada. However, the pair underwent a bullish correction from its highest level in over two years shortly, retesting the previously broken structure and currently moving upward. Moreover, Prime Minister of Canada Trudeau also announced an impending suspension of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods for at least 30 days. This postponed the immediate concern of any potential trade disruption, which had weighed the Canadian dollar down in the wake of heightened fears of waning demand for Canadian exports and dry foreign exchange inflows. Overall, if the daily candle manages to close above 1.4465, which serves as the upper boundary of the oscillating channel, there is a high probability that the bullish movement will continue. However, if the candle fails to close above the 1.4465 level or breaks below the trendline, bearish momentum could potentially push the price downward, retesting the lower boundary of the oscillating zone. RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
USD/CAD: Market Shifts Bearish – Drop Just StartingWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDCAD Analysis ! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by OGT_Forex
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 3 February 2025 - USDCAD reversed from the long-term resistance level 1.4670 - Likely to correct to support level 1.4400 USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the major long-term resistance level 1.4670, which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the start of 2020, as can be seen from the weekly USDCAD chart below. The resistance level was further strengthened by the proximity of the upper daily, weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands. Given the strength of the resistance level 1.4670, the USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.4400.
Short
by FxProGlobal
Will the US take the foot off the gas? | FX ResearchMarkets are already showing signs of recovery after the sharp risk-off gap lower. The market selloff around tariffs appears overstated, likely exacerbated by thin trading conditions. Recent U.S. tariff actions could be scaled back as negotiations progress, and markets tend to fill open gaps. The Canadian dollar saw significant weakness, hitting its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 2003, prompting countermeasures from Canada. Tariff news has overshadowed Friday’s U.S. data, which showed core inflation ticking higher. Investors will watch this closely, as stronger inflation could pressure the Fed to delay rate cuts. Earlier today, manufacturing PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK came in stronger than expected, while Eurozone inflation ticked up, supporting demand for the euro and the pound. Looking ahead, key releases include Canada’s manufacturing PMIs, U.S. ISM Manufacturing, U.S. construction spending, Fed commentary, and ECB statements.
by BlackBull_Markets
Could retaliations make USD weaker or CAD fall more?Hello Traders, Trump's administrations, accompanied by tariffs on allies like Canada and threatening Europe, surprisingly, Trump did impose 25% on an old ally and 10% on the strongest enemy. Trump could ruin the world and US economy. Right now, just like in any war, the superpower that thinks it could solely beat the world is gaining some victories in terms of currency value. But what about the long term? I think in the long term; retaliations could make us experience lower prices. But for now, the gap would be filled, and I'll search for some reasons to catch the next bullish move in the next few days.
Long
by AliSignals
2
What's Flowing: Trump’s Tariffs – Institutional InsightOn this episode of “What’s Flowing”, I dive into a document shared with me by an institutional trader analyzing the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the markets. With global trade in focus, we’ll explore how these policies are affecting currencies, commodities, and equities, and what institutional traders are watching closely. Are tariffs a strategic move for economic leverage, or are they setting the stage for market volatility? I’ll break down what I can from the report, reading between the lines to extract key takeaways for traders and investors. Stay tuned as we analyze the potential winners and losers in this shifting economic landscape, and what it all means for your portfolio.
Education
by moneymagnateash
USD/CAD Analysis: Market Surges on Tariff NewsFundamental Overview: The USD/CAD currency pair experienced a sharp surge, reaching its highest level since April 2003, trading around 1.4710. This movement was triggered by recent trade policy announcements and economic data affecting both the U.S. and Canadian economies. Trade Tariff Announcement: U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% import tariff on Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports. These protectionist measures have heightened trade tensions and weakened the Canadian dollar. Economic Data: Canadian GDP showed a 0.2% decline in November 2024, with a preliminary estimate of a 0.2% rebound in December 2024. The mixed data has failed to instill confidence in the Canadian dollar, keeping downward pressure on it. Treasury Yield Impact: U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated as investors move their funds to safer assets, further boosting demand for the U.S. dollar. The combination of trade uncertainty, weak Canadian economic data, and robust demand for U.S. assets continues to fuel USD/CAD bullish momentum. Technical Outlook: On the technical front, USD/CAD bulls remain firmly in control as the pair trades near the critical psychological level of 1.4700. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4750. A break above this level could pave the way for further gains, targeting 1.4800 in the near term. Support Levels: On the downside, initial support is at 1.4630, followed by the pivotal 1.4500 level. A breach below this zone could trigger a correction toward 1.4430, which aligns with the daily 72 EMA.
by softt_inc
USDCAD, Is 1.47 available ?Hello Traders, Happy new year in advance, I Hope you have a great year ahead with your family. let's go for USDCAD analysis: for upcoming weeks, we'll probably see a downward correction to Specified level at first and then it will start another Rally. so with a proper trigger we can open a short position at first and after that a long position with TP around 1.4700. And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post. If this post was helpful to you, please like it and share it with your friend. THANKS.
by aminrzb
6
USD/CAD: Will the Gap Close?USD/CAD Market Commentary: Will the Gap Close? The USD/CAD pair has recently exhibited strong bullish momentum, breaking out from a prolonged consolidation phase. Current price action suggests an impulsive Elliott Wave structure, with a potential completion of wave (3) and an ongoing corrective wave (4) before a final push higher into wave (5). Wave Structure and Triangle Formation Upon closer examination, the previous correction appears to have formed a WXY combination ending with a triangle consolidation, a classic Elliott Wave pattern that often precedes a powerful thrust in the direction of the dominant trend, which explains the strong thrust currently observed after its completion. This aligns with the guideline that price action breaking out of a triangle tends to be sharp and decisive. The recent breakout into wave (3) supports this expectation, suggesting a bullish continuation in the near term, with an expected target range around 1.4900-1.4950. Will the Gap Close? A notable feature of the current price action is the untested gap left behind at lower levels, approximately 1.4500-1.4550. Historically, the forex market tends to seek efficiency, meaning that unfilled price gaps often become liquidity targets over time. However, the current wave structure suggests that USD/CAD is likely to complete its 5-wave impulse first before reversing into a deeper correction. Technical Outlook Bullish Case: The strong breakout from the triangle indicates that USD/CAD may continue its upward trajectory towards 1.4900-1.4950 before encountering significant resistance. Bearish Case: After completing wave (5), the market may transition into a broader corrective phase, potentially forming an ABC retracement that could drive price downward to close the gap around 1.4450-1.4400. Conclusion Given the strong thrust from the Y-wave triangle completion and wave-based projection, USD/CAD is likely to experience further upside before any meaningful correction. However, once wave (5) reaches exhaustion, traders should be prepared for a possible retracement that seeks to fill the gap. The key levels to monitor are: 1.4900-1.49500: Potential exhaustion point of the uptrend. 1.4450-1.4550: Gap target and potential support zone. Traders should watch for signs of trend exhaustion near resistance, such as bearish divergence or a lower high formation, which could signal the start of a deeper pullback toward the gap closure. This structured outlook provides a roadmap for navigating USD/CAD’s price action in the coming sessions.
Long
by TheSignalService
Trump’s Tariffs Push USD/CAD to a 22-Year HighTrump’s Tariffs Push USD/CAD to a 22-Year High As promised during his election campaign, US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs just two weeks after his inauguration: → 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, prompting both countries to vow retaliatory measures. → 10% on Chinese goods, with China announcing plans to challenge the decision at the World Trade Organization. The tariffs will take effect on 4 February. Trump acknowledged potential economic pain but justified the measures as necessary to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking, arguing that the long-term benefits would outweigh the costs. Trump’s decision: → Led to a decline in US stock indices, as analysts fear a potential trade war and global stagflation (sluggish economic growth amid high inflation). Further tariffs on Europe may follow. → Strengthened the US dollar, which gained around 1% against major currencies. According to the USD/CAD chart, the Canadian dollar is trading around 1.4700 against the US dollar—a level last seen in early 2003. On 30 January, our USD/CAD technical analysis highlighted the significance of a key trendline supporting the uptrend since last autumn. Now, by drawing a parallel line through December’s peak (A), we can identify a resistance level where the pair is currently stabilising. A large bullish gap has also formed on the chart. The lower boundary around 1.4600 may act as technical support in the short term, though broader price movements will likely be driven by fundamental factors. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1