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USDCAD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas

Trump reshaping Canada’s election and Loonie Six weeks ago, a Conservative victory in the next Canadian election seemed inevitable. Now, that certainty is fading. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's support from the American right, including Elon Musk, is becoming a potential liability as Canada faces an unprecedented challenge: the U.S. president openly questioning its viability as a nation, threatening tariffs, and even suggesting annexation. A recent Nanos poll shows 39.6% of Canadians see new Liberal leader Mark Carney as the most qualified to negotiate with Trump, compared to 26% for Poilievre. This uncertainty may be weighing on the Canadian dollar. USDCAD broke lower last week, falling below key support (1.4260 - 1.4466), signaling a shift toward sellers. However, the 1-hour chart shows a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544. On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44. On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
by morrisgitau
CACIB: CAD: a temporary break?With a bank holiday in both Canada and the US yesterday, USD/CAD has consolidated above Friday’s lows of around 1.4150, as the pair broke away from the 1.44 pivot that had prevailed for about two months until last week. The pair nonetheless remains at the mercy of any eventual policy twist from the new US administration, mainly regarding the imposition of tariffs between the two countries as temporary respites are due to expire in early March, but also about geopolitics and its impact on global energy markets to a lesser extent. In this context, today’s Canadian CPI release for January may not attract too much attention, especially as the data has likely been distorted by the two-month break on Canadian sales tax. The BoC expects a more pronounced impact onto headline inflation (down to 1.7% YoY in January), whereas stripping out this temporary holiday, Canada’s CPI would have been on track to rise to a six-month high of 2.5% YoY. Ultimately, only a major data surprise could at this stage alter the bigger picture of Canadian inflation steadying just above 2% in the year ahead, while in any case the BoC’s reaction function may now give a greater weight onto Canada’s medium-term growth prospects, and whether any full-blown trade war could make the negative output gap worse.
Long
by AccuTrade2000
USDCAD in a corrective channel to continue in the downward move?USDCAD - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. A higher correction is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 1.4175 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 1.4125. We look to Sell at 1.4235 (stop at 1.4285) Our profit targets will be 1.4135 and 1.4125 Resistance: 1.4200 / 1.4235 / 1.4250 Support: 1.4150 / 1.4135 / 1.4125 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
USDCAD setting up for sell opportunitiesHello, USDCAD is gearing up for a potential drop on the 8-hour timeframe. From a technical perspective, the pair is currently in a corrective phase after a strong bearish move from the recent highs. As price nears key moving averages, we anticipate the correction to complete, paving the way for another leg down. The MACD is also approaching the zero line, signaling that sellers could be preparing to take control. On the fundamental side, this week is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility. Key catalysts include: Wednesday: FOMC meeting minutes release & a speech from President Trump. Thursday: Initial jobless claims and crude oil inventory data. Friday: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Global Services PMI. These events are expected to influence the US dollar significantly. A weaker dollar could favor further downside in USDCAD. Additionally, trade policy remains a major market driver—Trump had initially imposed tariffs on Canada but later postponed them for a month, adding another layer of uncertainty. With both technical and fundamental factors aligning, we maintain a bearish outlook on USDCAD in the near term. You can trade this pair using brokers that integrate with TradingView. tradingview.com/brokers/ such as TradeNation. Good luck!
Short
by thesharkke
UCAD Bears Turn Liquid After 4% Decline From Feb. HighOANDA:USDCAD has been trading in a Sideways Consolidation for 2 months now and last week finally delivered a Breakout! After the massive rally to 1.47926, price immediately plummeted down to not only fall back into the Consolidation Range but to then Breakout of the Support of that Consolidation. This Breakout is followed by massive Bearish Volume on top of RSI breaking down below 50! Price has satisfied all the Breakout Rules determining its validity, now to wait for a Retest of the broken support around the 23.6% Fibonacci Level or approx. 1.43 area for potential Short Opportunities to take down to the 1.41 area! Fundamentally, USD: Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing Index/ President Trump Speaks Wednesday - FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday - Unemployment Claims/ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/ Crude Oil Inventories Friday - Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI/ Existing Home Sales CAD: Tuesday - CPI Friday - Retail Sales/ BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
USD/CAD finds support (but 1.40 still beckons)USD/CAD has spent most of the past two weeks stuck on sell mode, after its short-lived rise to the 22-year high of 1.48 came crashing down thanks to tariffs being delayed. Due to bears closing shorts on CAD futures and bulls shying away from long USD bets, my core view is for USD/CAD down to 1.40, just above the 2022 high. But over the near term it shows the potential for a bounce towards 1.43. Last week's low stalled around a weekly VPOC and November high. A small bullish hammer and inside-day doji also formed around the 100-day EMA, while a bullish divergence also formed on the daily RSI (2) in the oversold zone. Bulls could seek dips towards the weekly VPOC in anticipation of a bounce to 1.4250, while prices hold above last week's low. At which point we can revisit its potential to roll over once more, in line with the core bias outlined above. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and forex.com
Long
by CityIndex
USDCAD Oversold bounce incoming.USDCAD is trading inside a Channel Up. February's price action has so far been a strong rejection of the price near the Channel Up top with the price dropping even below the MA50 (1d). This is very similar to the last Channel Up Top on October 13th 2022, which first dropped to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then bounced to the 0.236. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.44750 (the 0.236 Fib). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is almost oversold, which also favors buying. In fact it got rejected and currently is on the exact same levels it did in September - October 2022. Please like, follow and comment!!
Long
by TradingBrokersView
SELL USDCAD for bullish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 1.4270SELL USDCAD for bullish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 1.4270 Regular Bearish Divergence In case of Regular Bearish Divergence: * The Indicator shows Lower Highs * Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart..... The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here ..... TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with…….trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here
Short
by BALE_FX
2
USDCAD INTRADAY consolidation This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation