Priced return timeWith a downtrend line break, the chart could have a price rally and a price reversal. Keep an eye on the chart.
USDCAD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
USD/CAD Slips—Fading Trade Fears, CPI in FocusUSD/CAD is trading heavy ahead of Canada’s inflation report, weighed down by softer US economic data and fading sticker shock from US trade policy headlines. With Canadian data impressing at rates not seen since mid-2024 and January’s steep reversal from 22-year highs increasingly resembling a cyclical top, the key question now is whether this marks the start of a more significant unwind of earlier USD/CAD gains.
The price broke through multiple support levels last week after failing above the 50-day moving average, taking out 1.4270 and 1.4195 before retesting the latter from below over the past two sessions. Momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bearish signals, reinforcing the near-term bias being lower.
Beyond 1.4195, downside levels include 1.4090, the December double bottom at 1.3932, and the 200-day moving average. On the upside, 1.4270 has acted as a cap for much of the past fortnight, alongside minor resistance at 1.4372. That zone could prove tough to crack this week without a major escalation in US trade tensions or an ice-cold Canadian inflation print.
On Tuesday’s CPI report, the data will be skewed by a temporary GST holiday, potentially distorting the signal. That raises doubts about whether it will have enough weight to disrupt the prevailing USD/CAD trend.
Good luck!
DS
correctionIt is expected that the downward trend will continue to the specified support levels. Then the continuation of the movement will proceed according to the specified paths.
USDJPY:800+ PIPS Dropping Well Since Our First Idea!Dear Traders,
Since we posted our idea when price was trading at 158 we told you that this will be a massive dropped and since then price has proven us right, now we think there is another big drop is on the way. Please use proper risk management while trading.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.4106
1st Support: 1.3949
1st Resistance: 1.4300
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Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4146
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.0472
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.4280
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDCAD - Bearish SetupUSDCAD has broken the consolidation at the resistance zone which was accompanied by an rsi divergence.
Now we are looking to short it on the daily fair value gap.
USDCADBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/CAD, structured similarly to the provided model:
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD (February 2025)
This analysis covers updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
Canada
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The Canadian economy recorded modest growth of 0.2% in Q4 2024, reflecting cautious expansion amid global uncertainties.
• Inflation:
• Inflation is projected to moderate to around 3.2% by autumn 2025, still above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range.
• BoC Monetary Policy:
• In early February 2025, the BoC maintained its policy stance, with the benchmark rate steady at approximately 5.00%, as officials balance the risks of slowing growth against persistent inflationary pressures.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• The labor market remains resilient, though wage pressures and employment growth are being closely monitored in light of global economic headwinds.
United States
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The US economy continues its robust expansion, driven by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
• Inflation:
• With inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, the US faces ongoing pricing pressures that necessitate a cautious monetary policy.
• Fed Monetary Policy:
• At the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate within the 4.25% - 4.50% range, maintaining a balance between curbing inflation and supporting growth.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Low unemployment figures continue to underscore the strength of the US labor market.
2. Geopolitical Factors
• Trade Relations and Tariff Policies:
• Given the close trade ties between the US and Canada, any shifts in trade policy—such as potential tariff adjustments or renegotiations of trade agreements—could directly impact the USD/CAD pair.
• Fiscal Policies:
• Expansionary fiscal measures in the US, along with debates over budget deficits, could influence the long-term trajectory of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar.
• Energy Markets:
• As Canada is a major energy exporter, fluctuations in global oil prices can have a significant impact on the CAD’s performance, indirectly affecting the USD/CAD exchange rate.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
• Long Positions: 62,000
• Short Positions: 67,500
• Net Position: -5,500 (net short on CAD relative to USD)
• This suggests that large speculators are currently favoring the US dollar over the Canadian dollar in the near term.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
• Long Positions: 90,300
• Short Positions: 78,200
• Net Position: +12,100 (net long on CAD)
• Major institutions and corporations appear more optimistic about the Canadian dollar’s fundamentals over the longer term.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
• Long Positions: 4,200
• Short Positions: 3,600
• Net Position: +600 (net long on CAD)
• Indicates a moderately bullish sentiment among retail traders for CAD.
Interpretation:
• The net short position of large speculators on CAD reflects short-term bearish expectations.
• However, the net long positioning by commercial and small traders suggests that institutional and retail players expect a more favorable outlook for the Canadian dollar in the longer term.
4. Possible Scenarios for USD/CAD
Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for CAD)
• Triggers:
• Continued robust performance of the US economy and a steadfast, possibly more hawkish Fed policy.
• A dovish tilt by the BoC amid slower domestic growth.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD could rise, with the pair potentially trading above 1.35.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
• Triggers:
• Mixed economic data from both Canada and the US, with central banks adopting a “wait-and-see” approach.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD may trade within a narrow range, approximately between 1.32 and 1.35.
Scenario 3: CAD Appreciation (Bullish for CAD)
• Triggers:
• A more robust-than-expected economic performance in Canada, reducing the need for further BoC easing.
• Signs of a slowdown in the US economy prompting a dovish shift by the Fed.
• A favorable move in global energy prices supporting the CAD.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD could decline, with the pair potentially moving below 1.32.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/CAD: Consolidation with a Potential for CAD Appreciation
Reasons:
• While large speculators are net short on the CAD, the longer-term positions held by commercial and small traders indicate growing confidence in the Canadian dollar.
• The fundamentals in Canada—such as steady labor market conditions and resilience in key sectors like energy—support a gradual stabilization.
• Any signs of a more dovish stance by the Fed in response to slowing US growth could further bolster CAD relative to USD.
Target:
• In the coming months, USD/CAD may consolidate in the range of 1.32 to 1.35, with the potential for CAD appreciation driving the pair lower toward 1.32.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are the sole responsibility of the investor.
If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
USDCAD TRADE SETUPWait for retest the key level and bearish momentum then take a trade for Sell otherwise skip this setup
USDCAD Bearish Breakdown: Retest & Drop Incoming? USDCAD Daily Chart Analysis 📉🔥
1️⃣ Trend Breakdown:
The pair was in an uptrend but has now broken below the ascending trendline, signaling a potential bearish shift.
2️⃣ Resistance Zone (Supply Area) 🟦:
The 1.4350 - 1.4450 region acted as resistance, rejecting price strongly.
Multiple rejections in this area indicate strong selling pressure.
3️⃣ Bearish Confirmation 📉:
Price is now trading below the broken trendline.
The recent daily candle closed bearish, confirming sellers are in control.
4️⃣ Key Support Areas 🔍:
1.3957 (200 EMA) → A crucial dynamic support level.
1.3916 → Previous key level that may act as strong demand.
5️⃣ Projected Move ⬇️:
Price may retest the broken trendline (pullback).
If rejection occurs, further drop towards 1.3950 - 1.3910 is likely.
📌 Final Thought:
A bearish move is in play! Watch for a pullback to retest the broken structure before considering further shorts. If price breaks below 1.3950, expect further declines.
💭 What’s your bias? Bulls 🐂 or Bears 🐻?
USD correlation short As the correlation is saying short for USD any Pull back and long entry will be up for the eurusd,GBPusd ,AUDUSD and short for USDCAD
AUDUSD: Another 300+ Pips In Making, Use Proper Risk Management AUDUSD price has broken through the bearish inducement and currently on the way to make another high. Strong bullish presence is likely to pressure the price to create another high. Use accurate risk management.
XAUUSD: $3100 is the next target, Get Ready For the Big Move!Gold is currently making a small correction and looking at how the price is behaved. We are expecting how the price is likely to develop next. Use accurate risk management.
USDCAD wait for a corrective structure before you sellFor USDCAD, looks like market will give us a correction before the drop, you can skip the correction and wait for the sell setup after the completion of the correction
USDCAD Strong Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
USD-CAD keeps going down
After the strong bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.42823 which is
Now a resistance and as
We are bearish biased we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
USDCAD BearishUSDCAD retraced from 2020 High, and likely to continue to dive deeper.
1.3950 likely to be supported, at a 1.54 RR.
USD/CAD Testing Trendline Support Before Continuing BullishOn the USD/CAD 5D time frame chart, the price is currently experiencing a significant decline after reaching the resistance area around 1.46721. This pullback remains within the context of a long-term uptrend, as indicated by the ascending trendline, which has repeatedly acted as support since 2021.
The primary scenario in this analysis suggests that the price could retest the support area around the ascending trendline and the previous breakout zone (blue area), located in the 1.38 - 1.39 range. If the price finds strong support in this area and shows signs of reversal, a buy opportunity can be considered, with an upside target back to the 1.46721 resistance level.
In this analysis process, several confirmations should be observed before making an entry decision:
Price Reaction at Trendline Support – If the price shows a strong bounce at this level, the bullish scenario remains valid.
Reversal Candlestick Confirmation – Patterns like bullish engulfing or pin bars can serve as reliable entry signals.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below the trendline significantly, this bullish scenario may become invalid, and USD/CAD could enter a deeper correction phase. Therefore, risk management is crucial, with an ideal stop loss placed below the trendline support.
USDCAD Bearish scenarioWe can clearly see the consolidation on weekly chart.
Past 2 weeks we realy show selling presure.
That for me is confirmation that we will go down more.
The play is long term 1-2 yeras but can't beas easy as that.
So, trade safe!
USDCAD SELL SETUPPrice finally broke the ranging structure. We'll be looking for another opportunity to go short on the pull back!
USDCAD USDCAD quick pullback on Usdcad still on a bearish trend at the moment I do see a continuation on the bearish there is just a minor correction that needs to some on the upside before the continuation keeps going.
USDCAD – looking for value to go short .. the week of 17 FebAs per my analysis, we are seeing a weak USD across all major and minor currency pairs on the weekly and daily time frames. Which pair to trade will probably become clearer on Mon, but for now I am looking at USDCAD.
Yes, that huge spike up gap is confusing, but that gap was quickly filled. If I just ignore that gap, the picture becomes clearer; now I find that the price action this entire year was in a range between 1.4468 and 1.4280. This range narrowed considerably to the lower part of the range (see the yellow box) and this led to my bearish bias. On Thu last week, price actually broke down (below the range). It could attempt a pull back to the area I have marked in green. This area is significant, it has acted as support multiple times. I also see that the bearish candles have started becoming larger and I feel that the bears are taking control of this market. If price does pullback to my zone, we could have a good trade location.
Given the scenario I described, I would take a short position, with stop around 1.4350 and initial target at the support near 1.4180. If the downtrend continues with momentum, I will consider extending my trade to a secondary target near 1.3950.
This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
USDCAD 2/17 - 2/21Looking towards the left side on the daily timeframe we can see that price has bounced off of a major level of resistance. Zooming into the smaller timeframe on the right side (hour) we can see that price has started to slow down/forming bullish divergence. Could possibly be a nice catch towards the upside.
