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USD/CAD (OANDA EU Clients)

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USDCAD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas

Could retaliations make USD weaker or CAD fall more?Hello Traders, Trump's administrations, accompanied by tariffs on allies like Canada and threatening Europe, surprisingly, Trump did impose 25% on an old ally and 10% on the strongest enemy. Trump could ruin the world and US economy. Right now, just like in any war, the superpower that thinks it could solely beat the world is gaining some victories in terms of currency value. But what about the long term? I think in the long term; retaliations could make us experience lower prices. But for now, the gap would be filled, and I'll search for some reasons to catch the next bullish move in the next few days.
Long
by AliSignals
2
What's Flowing: Trump’s Tariffs – Institutional InsightOn this episode of “What’s Flowing”, I dive into a document shared with me by an institutional trader analyzing the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the markets. With global trade in focus, we’ll explore how these policies are affecting currencies, commodities, and equities, and what institutional traders are watching closely. Are tariffs a strategic move for economic leverage, or are they setting the stage for market volatility? I’ll break down what I can from the report, reading between the lines to extract key takeaways for traders and investors. Stay tuned as we analyze the potential winners and losers in this shifting economic landscape, and what it all means for your portfolio.
Education
by moneymagnateash
USD/CAD Analysis: Market Surges on Tariff NewsFundamental Overview: The USD/CAD currency pair experienced a sharp surge, reaching its highest level since April 2003, trading around 1.4710. This movement was triggered by recent trade policy announcements and economic data affecting both the U.S. and Canadian economies. Trade Tariff Announcement: U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% import tariff on Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports. These protectionist measures have heightened trade tensions and weakened the Canadian dollar. Economic Data: Canadian GDP showed a 0.2% decline in November 2024, with a preliminary estimate of a 0.2% rebound in December 2024. The mixed data has failed to instill confidence in the Canadian dollar, keeping downward pressure on it. Treasury Yield Impact: U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated as investors move their funds to safer assets, further boosting demand for the U.S. dollar. The combination of trade uncertainty, weak Canadian economic data, and robust demand for U.S. assets continues to fuel USD/CAD bullish momentum. Technical Outlook: On the technical front, USD/CAD bulls remain firmly in control as the pair trades near the critical psychological level of 1.4700. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4750. A break above this level could pave the way for further gains, targeting 1.4800 in the near term. Support Levels: On the downside, initial support is at 1.4630, followed by the pivotal 1.4500 level. A breach below this zone could trigger a correction toward 1.4430, which aligns with the daily 72 EMA.
by softt_inc
USDCAD, Is 1.47 available ?Hello Traders, Happy new year in advance, I Hope you have a great year ahead with your family. let's go for USDCAD analysis: for upcoming weeks, we'll probably see a downward correction to Specified level at first and then it will start another Rally. so with a proper trigger we can open a short position at first and after that a long position with TP around 1.4700. And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post. If this post was helpful to you, please like it and share it with your friend. THANKS.
by aminrzb
6
USD/CAD: Will the Gap Close?USD/CAD Market Commentary: Will the Gap Close? The USD/CAD pair has recently exhibited strong bullish momentum, breaking out from a prolonged consolidation phase. Current price action suggests an impulsive Elliott Wave structure, with a potential completion of wave (3) and an ongoing corrective wave (4) before a final push higher into wave (5). Wave Structure and Triangle Formation Upon closer examination, the previous correction appears to have formed a WXY combination ending with a triangle consolidation, a classic Elliott Wave pattern that often precedes a powerful thrust in the direction of the dominant trend, which explains the strong thrust currently observed after its completion. This aligns with the guideline that price action breaking out of a triangle tends to be sharp and decisive. The recent breakout into wave (3) supports this expectation, suggesting a bullish continuation in the near term, with an expected target range around 1.4900-1.4950. Will the Gap Close? A notable feature of the current price action is the untested gap left behind at lower levels, approximately 1.4500-1.4550. Historically, the forex market tends to seek efficiency, meaning that unfilled price gaps often become liquidity targets over time. However, the current wave structure suggests that USD/CAD is likely to complete its 5-wave impulse first before reversing into a deeper correction. Technical Outlook Bullish Case: The strong breakout from the triangle indicates that USD/CAD may continue its upward trajectory towards 1.4900-1.4950 before encountering significant resistance. Bearish Case: After completing wave (5), the market may transition into a broader corrective phase, potentially forming an ABC retracement that could drive price downward to close the gap around 1.4450-1.4400. Conclusion Given the strong thrust from the Y-wave triangle completion and wave-based projection, USD/CAD is likely to experience further upside before any meaningful correction. However, once wave (5) reaches exhaustion, traders should be prepared for a possible retracement that seeks to fill the gap. The key levels to monitor are: 1.4900-1.49500: Potential exhaustion point of the uptrend. 1.4450-1.4550: Gap target and potential support zone. Traders should watch for signs of trend exhaustion near resistance, such as bearish divergence or a lower high formation, which could signal the start of a deeper pullback toward the gap closure. This structured outlook provides a roadmap for navigating USD/CAD’s price action in the coming sessions.
Long
by TheSignalService
Trump’s Tariffs Push USD/CAD to a 22-Year HighTrump’s Tariffs Push USD/CAD to a 22-Year High As promised during his election campaign, US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs just two weeks after his inauguration: → 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, prompting both countries to vow retaliatory measures. → 10% on Chinese goods, with China announcing plans to challenge the decision at the World Trade Organization. The tariffs will take effect on 4 February. Trump acknowledged potential economic pain but justified the measures as necessary to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking, arguing that the long-term benefits would outweigh the costs. Trump’s decision: → Led to a decline in US stock indices, as analysts fear a potential trade war and global stagflation (sluggish economic growth amid high inflation). Further tariffs on Europe may follow. → Strengthened the US dollar, which gained around 1% against major currencies. According to the USD/CAD chart, the Canadian dollar is trading around 1.4700 against the US dollar—a level last seen in early 2003. On 30 January, our USD/CAD technical analysis highlighted the significance of a key trendline supporting the uptrend since last autumn. Now, by drawing a parallel line through December’s peak (A), we can identify a resistance level where the pair is currently stabilising. A large bullish gap has also formed on the chart. The lower boundary around 1.4600 may act as technical support in the short term, though broader price movements will likely be driven by fundamental factors. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDCAD currency pair trend after US imposes 25% tariff on CanadaNews: 🔆The Canadian dollar weakens as Donald Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Canada on February 1 🔆 Monetary policy : The Bank of Canada (BoC) has cut its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by January 2025, following previous cuts. This rate cut could weaken the CAD, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is also in an easing cycle. 🔆 Oil prices : Canada is a major oil exporter, so oil price movements have a significant impact on the CAD. Oil prices have recently risen on expectations of higher demand from China, which could support the CAD. Technical analysis: 🔆 Long-term trend : USD/CAD continues its strong uptrend, especially after breaking out of its previous short-term trading range. 🔆 Support and Resistance : If the uptrend continues, the next resistance level could be in the 1.4900–1.5000 range. Conversely, if there is a downside correction, the key support level to watch is 1.4280. Future Outlook: CAD is expected to strengthen in 2025 as lower interest rates stimulate economic growth and increase investor risk appetite. However, this outlook depends on the recovery of the global economy and demand for commodities, especially oil. Additionally, Canada is also considering a delicate tariff policy approach with the US to limit CAD weakness against the USD Conclusion: The USD/CAD pair is currently in a strong uptrend, supported by technical and fundamental factors. However, traders should be cautious and closely monitor economic developments, monetary policies and oil price fluctuations to make sound trading decisions.
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
USDCAD Bullish Flag Breakout and Uptrend PotentialUSDCAD is currently trading at 1.45200, showing a bullish outlook. The expected target price is 1.48590, indicating a potential gain of 300+ pips. A bullish flag pattern has already broken out, confirming strong upward momentum. This breakout suggests that buyers are in control and may push the price higher. The price action aligns with technical analysis, supporting a continued uptrend. Traders anticipate further bullish movement toward the target. Proper risk management is essential to navigate any pullbacks. Monitoring key resistance levels and market conditions is crucial. A sustained rally above the breakout zone can strengthen bullish confidence. Patience and discipline will be key in managing this trade effectively.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
USDCAD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Long
by ShahedZare
USDCAD Is Very Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 1.438. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.450 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
USD/CAD Daily AnalysisPrice has been moving in a steady uptrend since the last quarter of 2024 with the big number 1.4600 next in sight. However, an observation to note is that that the MACD has recently made a lower high, contradicting what is happening with price. We call this divergence and it's a sign that in this case buyers may be losing their grip of the market. We could see either a short term or longer term sell off, but while price remains above the swing low of 1.42612, it would be advisable to remain patient and wait for a sell setup below this key price point.
by FusionMarkets
1
The Loonie's Fate: Can CAD Hold Against USD?The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been losing ground against the U.S. dollar (USD) for years, and this chart suggests that weakness could continue. Since 2015, every time CAD has tried to strengthen, it has failed to break below 1.20, showing a long-term downward trend. USD/CAD at 1.47: A Critical Turning Point Right now, the exchange rate is sitting at 1.4527, just below a key resistance level (1.47). Historically, this level has acted as a ceiling where CAD has struggled to hold its value. Two Possible Outcomes: 1. If CAD Holds Below 1.47 → Potential for Stabilization A rejection at 1.47 would mean CAD could regain some strength, at least in the short term. This could happen if the Bank of Canada holds rates steady while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals rate cuts. If USD weakens, CAD could stabilize around 1.39 or lower. 2. If USD/CAD Breaks Above 1.47 → CAD Could Sink Further A breakout above 1.47 would mean further CAD weakness, and we could see 1.60 or even 1.80 in the long run. This would be bad news for Canadian consumers, as inflation would likely surge. The Bank of Canada might be forced to act aggressively, keeping interest rates high for longer to stabilize the loonie. The Big Picture: Could We See 1.80? The chart suggests that if USD/CAD breaks out above 1.47, the next long-term move could reach 1.80, which would mean an additional 21% devaluation of CAD against USD. What That Would Mean for Canadians: More Expensive Imports: A weaker CAD means higher costs for goods priced in USD—electronics, vehicles, food, and even vacations in the U.S. Higher Inflation Risk: Imported goods would become more expensive, keeping inflation high and making it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates. Potential Rate Hikes: If CAD weakens too much, the BoC may need to raise interest rates again to stabilize the currency, which could keep borrowing costs high. What Canadians Should Watch Oil Prices: Canada is a commodity-based economy, and higher oil prices typically strengthen CAD (since Canada is a major oil exporter). If oil prices rise, CAD could get some strength back, slowing the decline. Bank of Canada vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: If the Bank of Canada keeps rates high while the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, CAD could strengthen. But if the BoC cuts rates too early, CAD could fall further. Global Market Sentiment: In a risk-off environment, investors flock to USD for safety, weakening CAD. If risk appetite returns, CAD could stabilize. What Canadians Can Do to Prepare If USD/CAD Breaks 1.47 and Moves Higher: Hedge Against a Weak CAD: Consider holding some USD-denominated assets (U.S. stocks, USD savings). Lock in Loan Rates Now: A weakening CAD could keep rates high longer—fixed-rate mortgages may offer stability. Invest in Inflation-Protected Assets: If CAD weakens, commodities, energy stocks, and foreign investments could help hedge against inflation. Buy USD for Future U.S. Expenses: If you travel to the U.S. frequently, it might make sense to buy USD now before CAD weakens further. If USD/CAD Gets Rejected at 1.47 and CAD Recovers: Monitor U.S. Rate Cuts: If the Fed cuts rates, USD may weaken, giving CAD a chance to rebound. Be Ready for Short-Term Relief, But Plan for Long-Term Weakness: Even if CAD strengthens in the short term, the long-term trend still suggests CAD is vulnerable. Final Thoughts: The Loonie’s Fate Rests on 1.47 Right now, CAD is at a make-or-break level. If 1.47 holds, CAD may see short-term strength. If 1.47 breaks, CAD could face a significant decline, making life more expensive for Canadians. With inflation, interest rates, and oil prices all playing a role, this is a crucial time to pay attention to macroeconomic trends, as the next move in USD/CAD will impact Canadians' cost of living, mortgages, and investments. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
by TechTrendLabs