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USD/CAD (OANDA EU Clients)

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USD/CAD Analysis: Potential Retracement on Supply Area ContactThe USD/CAD has recently moved into a key supply area, prompting a watchful stance for a potential retracement. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, there’s a clear divergence between retail and institutional sentiment: while retail traders remain bullish on USD/CAD, institutional investors, or "smart money," have started building bearish positions, indicating a possible shift in momentum. Seasonal Forecast and Technical View Seasonal analysis suggests an increased probability of bullish price action in USD/CAD, but given our current position in a supply area, the focus is on a corrective retracement rather than a sustained reversal. This is especially relevant for short-term traders looking to capitalize on minor pullbacks. From a technical perspective, USD/CAD’s proximity to supply suggests a temporary exhaustion of the recent uptrend, allowing for a pullback within a controlled risk-reward framework. A tight stop loss is recommended here to protect against potential reversals should bullish seasonal tendencies overpower short-term retracement forces. Trading Strategy With a setup offering a strong risk-to-reward ratio, traders might consider a short position on USD/CAD with a focus on the retracement rather than a deep decline. Monitoring economic releases and potential changes in institutional positioning will be essential in determining whether the supply area holds, as well as to gauge the sustainability of any bearish retracement. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
USD/CAD:Dynamics Ahead of the US Election BOC DecisionsDynamics Ahead of the US Election and Bank of Canada Rate Decisions As the United States approaches its pivotal presidential election, the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing downward pressure. This uncertainty is impacting the broader market sentiment, leading traders to adopt a cautious stance. However, the upward trajectory of US Treasury yields may provide a buffer against further declines in the dollar’s value. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar's strength against six major currencies, is trading around 103.80. At this moment, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stand at 4.17% and 4.30%, respectively, indicating investor confidence in longer-term government debt. Turning to Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is gearing up for its final monetary policy meeting of the year in December, where a significant rate cut is widely anticipated. BoC Governor has signaled the possibility of a reduction by as much as 50 basis points (bps). This potential lowering of interest rates could influence the Canadian dollar's valuation and the overall economic landscape. From a technical perspective, the market shows signs of a bullish seasonal trend; however, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggests the potential for a price drop, particularly in alignment with identified supply zones. As we navigate through these evolving conditions, the outcome of the US election will likely have profound implications for currency movements and economic policies in the coming days. Traders will need to stay vigilant as these developments unfold, shaping market dynamics in both the US and Canada. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD Analysis: Potential Reversal at Key ResistanceUSD/CAD has been in a long-term uptrend, recently approaching a critical resistance zone. Price action suggests a potential shift from bullish to bearish due to the formation of a harmonic pattern that implies a possible corrective move. However, given the strength of the current uptrend, any pullback could be temporary, presenting future buying opportunities around key support levels. Technical Indicators TDI Divergence: Multiple bearish divergences on the TDI indicator highlight potential weakening in upward momentum, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term correction. Moving Averages: The MAs are positively sloped, supporting the medium- to long-term uptrend, but price has moved significantly away from them, suggesting a higher probability of a near-term pullback. Trade Strategy: Sell at Resistance Entry: 1.391 zone Stop Loss (SL): 1.4000 Take Profit (TP): 1.36970 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.5 Rationale: The proximity to key resistance, combined with bearish divergences, supports a potential corrective move. USD/CAD displays mixed signals of continuation and correction. Short-term indicators suggest a weakening, but the long-term uptrend remains intact. The most robust strategy here is a sell at resistance, backed by harmonic patterns and divergence signals. After a potential pullback, buying on corrections could be advantageous if the price resumes its uptrend. Monitoring technical developments and price action on lower timeframes is essential for timing entries. Disclaimer: The information provided does not constitute investment advice.
Short
by MrVNpt
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544. On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44. On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
by morrisgitau
The Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To KnowThe Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To Know Among the major currencies covering the largest part of forex trading volume is the Canadian dollar (CAD), colloquially known as the "Loonie" due to the image of a loon bird on the back of the C$1 coin. This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the CAD, a brief overview of its historical journey, and the factors driving it in the forex market today. Understanding the Canadian Dollar Over the years, the CAD has weathered fluctuations and policy shifts, impacting not only its value but also its influence in the world of finance. Originally, Canada used the British pound as its official currency, but it was gradually replaced by the Canadian dollar, which has been the country’s official currency since 1858. Following the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, Canada allowed its currency to fluctuate freely between 1950 and 1962, a period that culminated in a significant devaluation event. Subsequently, Canada adopted a fixed exchange rate until 1970, at which point mounting inflation pressures prompted the government to return to a floating currency system. Canadian Economy Canada boasts a stable and resource-rich economy that is also well diversified, yet when examining Canada's economic landscape, it's crucial to take into account its significant involvement in commodities. Canada is a significant producer and exporter of petroleum, minerals, wood products, and grains. Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Catalysts Various factors influence the value of the Loonie in the forex market. Here, we will explore some of the primary catalysts. Monetary Policy Decisions Impact CAD Predictions Interest rate announcements by the Bank of Canada usually take place eight times a year on predetermined dates. Higher interest rates often attract foreign investment in the economy, leading to an appreciation of the CAD's value. Following two consecutive pauses, the Bank of Canada surprisingly increased its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points on June 7th, 2023, reaching 4.75 per cent. This decision was primarily prompted by a rise in inflation to 4.4 per cent, marking the first uptick in 10 months. Notably, the EUR/CAD exchange rate exhibited a pronounced reaction to this event. Economic Data Key economic indicators encompass the publication of GDP figures, retail sales data, industrial production statistics, inflation rates, trade balances, and jobs data. These reports follow established schedules; for example, you can use FXOpen’s economic calendar to track major events. Improvements in that data can be bullish for CAD, while a deterioration could exert negative pressure on the currency. In September, Canada’s GDP for the second quarter of 2023 signalled stalling economic activity, remaining unchanged from the first quarter against expectations. Unsurprisingly, there was a significant bullish market reaction in the USD/CAD exchange rate. The Impact of Oil on Canadian Dollar Trading Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers, and its currency is closely tied to the price of crude oil. A rise in oil prices typically boosts the Canadian dollar. Conversely, falling oil prices can weaken the currency. The oil price war in March 2020 between Saudi Arabia and Russia had a direct and adverse impact on the Loonie. The CAD depreciated due to the country's significant reliance on oil exports and the reduced revenues resulting from the sharp drop in oil prices. Unique Factors to Consider in a Canadian Dollar Forecast In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, there are unique factors that forex traders consider when analysing the Canadian dollar buying rate today. Proximity to the United States Proximity to the United States is a defining factor in the performance of the CAD, which is notably influenced by the intricate economic ties with that country. These ties extend beyond trade to factors such as cross-border investments and shared financial markets. Positive developments in the US, such as robust economic growth or shifts in monetary policy, can elevate demand for Canadian exports, thereby potentially strengthening the CAD. Conversely, economic challenges in the US may disrupt trade flows between the two nations, leading to a potential weakening of the CAD. Commodity Prices and the Canadian Dollar Trend Apart from oil, Canada exports various other commodities, including metals and agricultural products. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can influence the CAD, as they impact Canada's export revenues and, respectively, the performance of the Canadian dollar. When commodity prices are on the upswing, there tends to be a surge of incoming capital, which positively affects CAD exchange rates. If you're eager to find new opportunities, you can visit FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Trade Relations Canada is a major player in global trade, having significant partnerships. News or events related to these agreements can significantly influence the CAD's performance. - USMCA (formerly NAFTA): The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is pivotal for Canada, as a significant portion of its exports are destined for the United States. Any changes or developments in USMCA can impact the CAD's value. - European Union: Canada has a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union (EU). This trade deal promotes exports to EU countries and fosters economic cooperation. - Asia-Pacific: Canada's trade relations extend to Asia-Pacific nations, where it actively trades with countries like China and Japan. The imposition of tariffs or the eruption of trade tensions can exert substantial pressure on the CAD. Tariffs can lead to reduced exports, affecting Canada's trade balance and potentially weakening the currency. Conversely, the resolution of trade disputes can lead to a stronger CAD. Geopolitical Stability Considering Canada's relatively robust economic position, the nation boasts a relatively elevated interest rate compared to other developed economies. Canada has also earned recognition for its prudent fiscal management, striking a harmonious balance between a government-influenced economy and a more laissez-faire approach. This characteristic becomes particularly relevant during times of worldwide economic instability. While not a reserve currency like the US dollar, the Canadian dollar is relatively stable. Takeaway To navigate the dynamic world of forex trading effectively, understanding the factors influencing the Canadian dollar's value is paramount. Among the unique features of the Loonie are its close ties to the US economy, reliance on commodities, and unique geopolitical position. Already have an idea of how to trade the CAD’s fluctuations? Open an FXOpen account and expand your journey right away. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
6
USDCAD H4 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.3867, which is a pullback support close to 61.8% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.3934, a multi-swing high resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 1.3809, which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3863 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3812 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3938 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USD/CAD Potential Retracement and Downside OutlookAnalysis Summary Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH): Multiple BOS and CHoCH markings indicate shifts in market momentum. The most recent BOS suggests a bearish trend continuation, while the CHoCH levels mark zones where short-term bullish momentum shifted back to bearish. Strong High: The chart shows a strong high around 1.3950, indicating a recent resistance level where sellers have taken control. This level is significant and could act as a barrier if the price attempts a retracement. Supply Zone: The red-shaded area around 1.3915–1.3925 highlights a supply zone, which is likely to attract selling pressure if the price retraces to this area. This zone could serve as an ideal entry point for short trades targeting lower levels. Weak Low: The weak low near 1.3880 marks a level of vulnerability in the bearish structure. If this low is tested and broken, it could confirm further downside movement. Potential Scenarios: Bearish Continuation: If the price retraces to the supply zone around 1.3915–1.3925 and faces resistance, a bearish move targeting the weak low at 1.3880 is likely. A break below this level could extend the downtrend toward lower support levels. Short-Term Retracement: A minor bullish retracement into the supply zone may provide an opportunity for sellers. However, if the price breaks above this zone and challenges the strong high at 1.3950, the bearish outlook could be invalidated in favor of a potential trend reversal. Conclusion USD/CAD is currently exhibiting bearish signs, with a possible retracement toward the supply zone around 1.3915–1.3925. Sellers may find opportunities in this area, aiming for a continuation to the weak low at 1.3880. Traders should watch for reactions in the supply zone to gauge the strength of the bearish trend.
Short
by SwiftSignalFX
1
USDCADUSDCAD had a beautiful rally to the upside where right now it is testing its weekly range resistance. Dollar (Dxy) seems to be bullush in the upcoming days. But before that Major USD pairs can take a small rally to the upside. Also USDCAD is stretched way too much. a small correction will be good for DXY to keep bullish momentum. Also on going elections can take the market upside down in a matter of minutes. so be vigilant on your trades these days. Lets see how it goes.
Short
by TRADETITANWAQAS
1