USDCAD Price Rebounding from Key Support as CAD WeakensUSDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal from key support around the 1.3700–1.3685 zone. The pair had been declining steadily but recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar — driven by soft economic data and oil market uncertainty — is starting to shift momentum back in favor of the U.S. Dollar. As long as support holds, there is room for a bullish continuation toward 1.3860 or higher in the near term.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Trend Structure: After a strong impulsive drop earlier in May, USDCAD formed a rounded bottom near 1.3685, followed by a corrective bounce. The recent retracement toward the support area is forming a potential higher low setup.
Support Zone:
Primary Support: 1.3700–1.3685
This is a clean structure zone and previous demand level. Price tested this area on May 24–25 and rebounded sharply.
Resistance Zone:
Short-Term Target: 1.3849–1.3860
This is the next major horizontal resistance, and aligns with previous price congestion before the latest decline.
Price Projection:
The chart suggests a bullish wave may develop from the support zone, targeting the 1.3860 level. If broken, a further move toward 1.3920 (May swing high) is possible.
Invalidation Level:
A daily close below 1.3680 would negate the bullish bias and signal a deeper correction or trend continuation lower.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Dollar (USD) Drivers:
Q1 GDP second estimate shows steady but modest growth.
Consumer Confidence fell recently, capping upside for the USD short term.
The Fed remains cautious, signaling that inflation risks persist — keeping interest rates elevated, which supports USD.
U.S. Treasury yields have been stable to slightly higher, also helping support the dollar.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Drivers:
Canada's balance of payments posted a larger-than-expected deficit in Q1 — a negative for CAD.
Oil prices, which heavily influence CAD, have been under pressure from global demand uncertainty.
Domestic demand is softening: flat retail sales and weak trade balance data reduce CAD appeal.
Bank of Canada is showing signs of policy caution, especially as inflation slows faster than in the U.S.
Conclusion
Outlook: Short-term bullish
USDCAD is likely to bounce from the 1.3700–1.3685 zone and retest 1.3849–1.3860 if CAD weakness continues.
Trade Plan (if trading):
Buy Zone: 1.3700–1.3685
Target: 1.3860
Stop Loss: Below 1.3680 (structure break)
The pair is fundamentally supported by CAD weakness and technically primed for a rebound — but confirmation from price action near support is critical.
USDCAD trade ideas
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USD/CAD..1Week chart pattern.potentially significant breakdown on the USDCAD weekly chart—if price has decisively broken below a long-standing ascending trendline, that can be a strong signal of trend reversal or deeper correction.
Let's assess your trade setup:
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🟦 Trade Plan Summary
Entry: Short at 1.3700 (current position)
Trigger: Confirmation of trendline break
1st Target (TP1): 1.3020
2nd Target (TP2): 1.2500
Stop Loss (Suggested): Ideally somewhere above 1.3750–1.3800, depending on volatility/tolerance.
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📊 Technical Breakdown
1. Trendline Break (Weekly):
If the trendline held since 2021–2022 was broken, this confirms a structural shift.
Weekly closes below the trendline reinforce the signal; daily retests that reject it would strengthen your case.
2. 1.3020 Target Zone:
This is a strong support area, previously tested multiple times (May 2023 and early 2022).
It aligns with fib retracement zones and horizontal demand.
3. 1.2500 Target:
A more aggressive downside target, likely needing a strong USD selloff or major CAD strength (e.g., oil rally or BoC hawkishness).
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🔍 Key Considerations
Risk-Reward: From 1.3700 to 1.2500 is a 1,200 pip move. Even to 1.3020 gives ~680 pips. Depending on SL, this can be a 3–6:1 RR.
CAD Drivers:
Crude oil strength boosts CAD.
Watch Bank of Canada rate decisions and inflation data.
USD Factors:
A shift in Fed tone toward rate cuts will weaken USD.
Upcoming NFP, CPI, and Fed meetings are key.
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✅ Trade Management Tip
If price breaks decisively below 1.3600 with strong volume and doesn't reclaim that level, consider:
Scaling in (if not fully positioned),
Trailing stop loss as it approaches 1.3300 (mid-support),
Taking partial profit at 1.3020 and letting the rest ride to 1.2500.
Would you like a chart analysis or trade calculator for this setup? I can also generate a chart with key levels marked if you upload your chart screenshot or describe the trendline.
USDCAD Makes Retest At 200 EMA After Bull Trap BreakoutOANDA:USDCAD here on the 1Hr Chart has printed an Ascending Channel and Bears have made a Breakout!
Price currently looks to be on its way to retesting the Breakout of the Channel with the 200 EMA and Upper Bollinger Bands sitting at the Rising Support adding some heavy Bearish Pressure.
Fundamentally, BOC will be releasing GDP m/m ( Gross Domestic Product ) numbers tomorrow morning at 0730 AM CST with analysts forecasting a .3% Increase at .1% with Previous being -0.2%.
USDCAD: Bearish After the News 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD looks bearish after a release of today's fundamental news.
A bearish breakout of a rising channel on a 4h time frame
and a strong selling reaction after its retest provide
a reliable bearish continuation.
I think that the price may drop to 1.3743 support.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
A Different Way To Use the RSI To Trade Deceleration Patterns A deceleration pattern is a pattern that forms at the end of a directional move as it starts to lose steam. 2 good ones to learn are the rising/falling wedge & channel.
The problem wit these patterns however, is that it can sometimes be difficult to tell when that final reversal may come backing it hard to place stops.
Lately, and by that I mean for the past year or so, I've been tracking a very specific pattern on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator to help me with these situations.
Please LIKE & SHARE and if you have any questions or comments, leave them below
Akil
USDCAD Rebound from Key Support – Bullish Setup in PlayUSDCAD pair has reached a technical inflection point at key support around 1.3700, where it is attempting a rebound after several days of bearish momentum. With recent Canadian data showing underlying economic strain and the U.S. dollar reacting to rate expectations and tariff news, this area becomes crucial for the next directional move.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Support Level: Price has respected the horizontal support at 1.3700–1.3685, forming a possible double-bottom structure on the 4H chart.
Bullish Reversal Zone: The latest candle shows a strong rejection wick at the support zone, suggesting bullish interest. The structure aligns with a classic bullish reversal pattern.
Target Zones:
First TP: 1.3849 (previous high / supply zone).
Second TP: 1.3860–1.3870 (Fibonacci extension + minor resistance).
Invalidation (SL): Below 1.3685, further downside may open to 1.3632.
🧠 Fundamental Context
U.S. Side:
GDP and NFP data have recently come out mixed, reducing the immediate pressure on the Fed to hike rates further.
Tariff uncertainty and appeal plans by the Trump administration are increasing near-term USD volatility.
US bond yields are firming again, giving the dollar mild support.
Canada Side:
Canadian Q1 GDP disappointed at 0.1%, lower than expected.
BoC is likely to hold rates steady, but the economy shows weak business investment and softening consumption growth.
Crude oil, Canada’s key export, is still under pressure, slightly weakening CAD.
✅ Conclusion
This setup favors a short-term long on USDCAD from current levels, targeting the upper resistance zone at 1.3849–1.3860. A break and close above 1.3870 could extend toward 1.3900. However, caution should be exercised with upcoming U.S. labor and trade data that may fuel volatility.
Bearish reversal?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3895
1st Support: 1.3792
1st Resistance: 1.3943
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCAD: Strong Bearish Confirmation ?! 🇺🇸🇨🇦
I see an important sign of strength of the sellers on USDCAD
on an hourly time frame after a release of the today's US fundamentals.
The price violated a support line of a horizontal range and is retesting
that at the moment.
I believe that the price may drop at least to1.374 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Falling towards overlap support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3602
1st Support: 1.3420
1st Resistance: 1.3843
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/CAD downhill from here?C$1.3945 was made short work of in April and retested as resistance in May, following a fourth consecutive month in the red. Technically speaking, the scope to explore deeper water is evident on the monthly scale until C$1.3534, followed by another layer of support from C$1.3242.
In view of this, as well as the lack of bullish intent evident from trendline support on the daily chart last week, extended from the low of C$1.2007, a breakout lower here could trigger further downside towards a daily support area between C$1.3550 and C$1.3601.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
USDCAD MARKET ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTIONUSDCAD , has retested the rejection and order zone. Price has already grabbed the Sell Side liquidity and upward movement is mostly certain. An institutional Buy order is going to push the price up. The first target is the breaker block at the renegotiation trend line at 1.37837, and the second target is the renegotiation resistance at 1.38595 to clear off the Buy side liquidity. Entry is now.
Entry, take profits and stop loss are clearly stated on the chats.
GOOD LUCK GUYS!
DIDCLAIMER
This analysis might fail due to market uncertainties. Take full responsibility of your capital and manage your own risk!
USD/CAD - continues the downtrendOn USD/CAD , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 1.37540 and 1.38150 . It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Strong S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Potential bullish rise?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 1.3792
1st Support: 1.3688
1st Resistance: 1.3905
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCAD: Long Signal Explained
USDCAD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy USDCAD
Entry Level - 1.3742
Sl - 1.3706
Tp - 1.3809
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3787
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3703
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.3904
Why we lik eit:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
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