Israel-Iran Confrontation. (I expect upward movement in USD/CADIsrael and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold. in the meantime, investors are shifting their focus to key events this week.
The main highlights will be the consumer inflation reports from the UK and the eurozone. In the EU, inflation is expected to stabilize at 1.9%, while in the UK, it is forecast to decrease from 3.5% to 3.3% year over year.
This week will also bring central bank meetings in Switzerland, the UK, and, of course, the U.S. Federal Reserve-which will likely take center stage and divert attention from the tow European central banks.
Other events worth focusing on include the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index U.S. retail sales figures.
But let's return to the week's main event-the Fed's final monetary policy decision, which will be made over two days, Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the consensus forecast, the central bank is expected to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4,50% The main reasons for this are persistently high consumer inflation figures, which showed an annual increase last week (albeit smaller than expected), and uncertainty about the consequences of Donald Trump's presidency. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously cited both as reasons to pause the rate-cutting cycle.
So, what might come of the Fed holding rates steady?
Frankly, not much. Ongoing uncertainty will continue to be the primary driving force in the markets. Traders are starting to anticipate rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, I believe there is a strong chance that rates will remain unchanged until next year. This is due not only to risk of inflation returning to 3% and the murky geoeconomic policies of the U.S.-China trade war and its unclear outcome.
Given this combination of negative factors-each of which obstructs rate cuts-and the fact that the market has already priced these into its expectations, we can anticipate a continuation of existing trends.
The pair is declining amid rising crude oil prices, which support the Canadian dollar, a commodity-linked currency. If oil prices resume upward momentum, USD/CAD will face pressure again. If the pair fails to rise above 1,3600, a decline toward 1.3435 is likely. A potential sell level is 13560.
USDCAD trade ideas
USD/CAD Trap in Progress? Smart Money Flips BearishUSD/CAD is currently in a rebalancing phase after the strong downside correction seen over recent weeks. Following a rejection in the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, price retraced down to a major demand area between 1.3500 and 1.3650, where it has shown a notable bullish reaction. The pair is now trading at 1.3734, and multi-frame data suggests we are in a transitional phase—not yet a confirmed bullish trend reversal.
COT Report – Institutional Positioning
The latest Commitments of Traders data (June 10th) reveals critical signals:
Commercials (hedgers and large institutions) have aggressively increased their long exposure on CAD, adding +27,999 contracts. This indicates strong expectations of Canadian dollar appreciation—bearish implications for USD/CAD in the medium term.
Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced their short CAD exposure by -14,319 contracts, signaling that speculative players are starting to unwind long USD/CAD positions.
Overall, the net shift shows institutional sentiment turning bearish on the pair, potentially pointing to a deeper downside once the current technical pullback completes.
USD Index COT – Dollar Momentum Weakening
On the USD Index, Non-Comms have added +1,279 long contracts, but positioning remains moderate. Commercials are flat, suggesting the dollar lacks strong bullish backing. This makes any sustained USD/CAD rally structurally fragile.
Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are 57% short and 43% long on USD/CAD. Although not extreme, this imbalance suggests confidence among retail participants in a bearish move—often preceding a short-term upward squeeze before an eventual trend continuation.
We could therefore see price move toward 1.3900 as a liquidity grab, setting the stage for a larger reversal.
Technical Analysis – Outlook
Key highlights:
A strong bullish reaction occurred from the 1.3500–1.3650 demand zone, previously well-respected.
The weekly RSI is still below the 50-level but is turning upward—momentum is improving.
Price structure shows room for a pullback to the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, which aligns with higher-timeframe order blocks.
This zone remains a critical resistance, and unless the macro and positioning context changes, a renewed bearish impulse is expected from this area.
Trading Outlook
The current picture presents a tactical short-term long opportunity, followed by a potential structural short setup.
📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Pullback (in play):
With price above 1.3700 and consolidating, there’s space for a rally toward the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone. Ideal for short-term targets.
📉 Scenario 2 – Structural Short (priority bias):
Should price reach 1.3950–1.4000 and show bearish confirmation (e.g., engulfing, doji, rejection on H4/H1), this would be a prime area to initiate swing shorts, targeting 1.3600 and eventually 1.3450.
✅ Final Bias: Structural Bearish – Corrective Bullish
Watch for potential false breakouts above 1.3800–1.3900 to liquidate retail shorts before a more meaningful downside move. The sharp increase in commercial net long CAD positions supports a bearish USD/CAD bias for the coming weeks.
USDCAD is Nearing The Daily Trend!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.36950 zone, USDCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.36950 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/CAD)) Bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 3-hour timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and classic technical analysis. Here's a breakdown
---
Key Technical Insights:
Overall Trend:
The pair is in a clear downtrend, confirmed by:
Lower highs and lower lows
Price trading below the 200 EMA (currently at 1.37402)
Respect for the downtrend channel
---
Resistance Zones:
1. Upper Resistance Zone (~1.38400 – 1.38750):
Strong historical sell area (price sharply reversed here in late May)
2. Mid Resistance Zone (~1.36450 – 1.36750):
Price reacted twice here and dropped.
Aligns with the downtrend line and was recently tested again (red arrow).
---
Bearish Projections:
After the latest pullback into the resistance zone, price is expected to:
Reject the zone
Continue following the descending structure
Target marked around 1.35034, which coincides with:
Previous low
Lower boundary of the descending channel
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Chart Tools & Features Used:
Trendlines: Clearly marking the downtrend channel
200 EMA: Used as dynamic resistance
Fib-like measured move: Mirrored previous impulse moves (-1.61%) suggesting a symmetric drop
Arrows: Indicating reaction points from resistance
---
Conclusion:
Bias: Bearish
Invalidation: Break and hold above 1.36500 would weaken the bearish outlook.
Next Move: Potential sell setups on lower timeframe retests or bearish confirmations within the resistance zone.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDCAD DETAILED ANALYSISUSDCAD has formed a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, with price currently pressing against the upper trendline resistance near 1.37300. This is a high-probability bullish reversal setup, and the pair is showing early signs of a potential breakout. The recent bullish momentum from the lows suggests buyers are stepping in aggressively, and if we get a strong daily close above the wedge, it could confirm the start of a new upward leg. My near-term target for this breakout is 1.47300, offering an excellent risk-reward profile.
From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian Dollar is currently under pressure due to weakening oil prices and softening domestic economic data. The Bank of Canada has recently signaled a dovish tilt following its latest rate cut in June, citing slower GDP growth and easing inflation. On the other hand, the US Dollar is finding renewed strength backed by sticky inflation and the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoC is creating a favorable environment for USDCAD bulls.
Technically, the confluence of wedge resistance, bullish divergence on the RSI, and a clear higher low formation all point toward a breakout scenario. A break above 1.37600–1.38000 would unlock the next wave of bullish continuation, potentially accelerating momentum toward the 1.47 handle. This area also aligns with the previous March highs, making it a strong technical magnet.
I remain bullish on USDCAD and will be watching the breakout closely this week. If the pair holds above 1.36800 and breaks structure convincingly, I’ll be adding to longs on confirmation. The current setup presents a textbook breakout opportunity supported by strong fundamentals, technical structure, and market sentiment leaning in favor of the USD.
USDCAD Analysis – Breaking the Chains, Eyeing 1.38+USDCAD Price broke out from a long descending channel, followed by two bullish continuation flags – classic breakout-retest pattern.
Price is now pushing above 1.3720, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level of the prior drop.
Next upside targets:
🔹 1.3833 (Fib 61.8%)
🔹 1.3913 (Fib 78.6%)
Clear stop level: below 1.3625 (channel breakout support)
Structure Bias: Bullish continuation. Clean breakout + consolidation = probable impulse toward 1.3830/1.39.
📊 Current Bias: Bullish
🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCAD
USD Drivers (Neutral to Bullish):
Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2025, but Powell's tone leaned dovish.
US Retail Sales + PPI were weak, but safe-haven USD demand persists due to geopolitical risks and equity volatility.
Market reassessing Trump election risk, Fed independence, and inflation stickiness.
CAD Drivers (Bearish):
Oil prices are volatile due to Middle East tensions, but weak demand caps upside.
Canada’s CPI softened, BoC already delivered a dovish cut earlier this month.
CAD under pressure due to dovish BoC outlook and fiscal concerns (gov't budget deficits expanding).
CAD is also suffering from reduced foreign investment flows.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Oil price spikes (especially if Strait of Hormuz risk escalates) may boost CAD short-term.
A sharp reversal in DXY or Fed commentary shift toward aggressive easing.
Weak US data next week (Core PCE especially) could unwind USD momentum.
🗓️ Upcoming Events to Watch
US Core PCE (June 28) – critical inflation gauge for the Fed
BoC Business Outlook Survey
Oil Inventories + Global energy sentiment
Geopolitical: Israel–Iran updates and Canada’s fiscal signals
🏁 Which Pair Leads the Move?
USDCAD is leading commodity crosses as CAD weakness broadens. Watch USDCAD and GBPCAD for signs of CAD softness before others like AUDCAD/NZDCAD follow.
USDCAD is Nearing The Daily TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.38500 zone, USDCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.38500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCAD may hit bottom amid DXY declineThe dollar is weakening. Against this background, the Canadian dollar is strengthening, which puts pressure on the price of the currency pair.
The key support is 1.3566. Breakdown of the level will strengthen the sell-off
The price is descending by “steps”. Consolidation - distribution, consolidation - distribution.
From the current range of 1.365 - 1.3566 I expect the same thing: downward momentum.
Scenario: consolidation and price sticking to 1.3566, decrease in volatility and squeeze to the urvon may lead to a breakdown and a fall.
USDCAD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my USDCAD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
The End of A Trend & The Start of A New OneA few weeks ago we made an amazing bearish call of the $USDCAD. Now that it's come to an end, the market is showing signs of a potential reversal.
In this video we're going to talk about how to identify a potential reversal in trend and of course show you how I'm looking to trade it.
Please leave any questions, comments or shared ideas below.
Akil
Bearish momentum to meet support on USDCAD: Looking for a bounceEvening, just wanted to share what I’m seeing on the USDCAD chart
Price on USDCAD has been in clear bearish momentum, but we’re now approaching a strong support zone, that’s held firm multiple times before, as I marked it on my chart. Price is approaching the zone again and I am taking it into account for a potential bounce.
I’ll be watching for bullish confirmation as usual requirement before entering. If that support holds, I’m targeting 1.38400 , totally achievable if momentum shifts.
BUT, if this zone breaks with momentum, I’ll reassess it and stay flexible.
💡 Reminder: Patience is power, no entry until price shows me something worth reacting to. This is not financial advice.
Bearish USD/CAD Presents a Selling Opportunity Now.FenzoFx—USD/CAD surged to 1.3686, a resistance zone backed by a bearish Fair Value Gap. Stochastic shows 81.0, signaling short-term overpricing. The market remains bearish below 1.3729, with fundamentals pointing to a stronger CAD.
A decline toward 1.362 is likely if USD/CAD stays below 1.3729.
USD/cad TRADE 2 even tho i belive this to be in a down trend i still belive a reversal for next couple days is in order i would say wait for in to retrace to a higher level of interest to get in on a short but advanced traders will be waiting for the jump, i have marked the arrows to show u what i belive to happen but a engulfing pattern has already come out, i so i belive this is going to have a little bullish run to then continue on the bearish movment