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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3792 2nd Support – 1.3760 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
25
USDCAD RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD!USDCAD 22/05 – KEY RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD! 🌐 MACRO BACKDROP: Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales have come in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish consumer demand and reducing the probability of near-term rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the USD is stabilizing, supported by steady U.S. Treasury yields after the Fed reaffirmed its “higher for longer” stance. Oil prices, a major driver of the Canadian Dollar, have shown no significant breakout, further weakening CAD’s bullish momentum. 🔍 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW (H1–H4 Chart): After hitting a key swing low at 1.3820, USDCAD is now retracing towards the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (1.3889 – 1.3913), which also aligns with: The 200 EMA resistance (red line) Previous structure rejection zone ➡️ This area is critical – it could act as a trap zone before price resumes downward or breaks to confirm a short-term bullish reversal. 📈 TRADE SETUPS: 🔻 SELL SETUP (HIGH PROBABILITY IF PRICE FAILS AT RESISTANCE): Entry: 1.3900 – 1.3913 Stop Loss: 1.3930 Take Profit Targets: 1.3884 → 1.3859 → 1.3847 → 1.3820 🔹 BUY SETUP (IF PRICE HOLDS ABOVE THE BASE ZONE): Entry: 1.3820 – 1.3823 Stop Loss: 1.3805 Take Profit Targets: 1.3847 → 1.3880 → 1.3913 ⚠️ STRATEGY NOTES: Be cautious during the New York session, as potential comments from Fed officials or crude oil updates could spike volatility. This is a textbook case of “reaction vs. continuation” at a Fibo cluster – stick to confirmed candlestick signals to avoid false breakouts. 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: USDCAD is in a corrective rally after an extended decline. The 1.3913 zone is a key decision point. Sellers should watch for signs of exhaustion, while buyers can target short-term retracements if support holds at 1.3820.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
4
USDCAD Consolidation Within Bullish Flag – Targets 1.4130USDCAD is consolidating inside a descending flag structure following a strong impulsive rally earlier in May. The current pullback is orderly and corrective, indicating potential for continuation higher. If price breaks above 1.3960, this flag breakout could extend toward 1.4130 and possibly 1.4225. With CAD weakening on soft oil prices and USD regaining strength from yield-driven flows, the bias remains bullish while price stays above 1.3870. 🔍 Technical Analysis Pattern: Bullish flag forming after a strong rally Support Zone: 1.3870–1.3900 → base of flag Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.3960–1.3980 → upper flag line Structure: Higher lows holding firm Fib confluence near 1.3933 (23.6% retracement) Target Levels: 1.4130 – 50% fib level + previous structure resistance 1.4225 – 61.8% fib zone from March–April high 📈 Bias: Bullish continuation on breakout 🌍 Fundamental Context 🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD) Supported by: Higher bond yields Fed expected to hold rates higher for longer Safe-haven inflows post-Moody’s downgrade fading USD Index recovering broadly across majors 🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Oil prices softening due to global demand concerns (China slowdown, US inventories) BoC likely done hiking — no fresh bullish catalysts CAD correlation with crude oil adds downside risk if energy markets weaken further 🎯 Trade Plan Entry: Break and close above 1.3960 Stop Loss: Below 1.3870 (flag support zone) Targets: TP1: 1.4130 (structure resistance + fib level) TP2: 1.4225 (swing high + golden ratio) ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch If USD sentiment shifts (e.g., dovish Fed speaker) → breakout may fail Crude oil rebound would support CAD and cap USD/CAD upside False breakouts common near 1.3960 — wait for confirmation (strong candle close) 🧭 Conclusion USD/CAD remains in a bullish consolidation phase with a clear continuation setup. A break above 1.3960 would confirm a flag breakout targeting 1.4130 and 1.4225. With the macro backdrop favoring the USD and energy-linked CAD weakening, this setup offers clean structure and potential for follow-through.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
USD/CAD: The US Dollar in a Trap! Ready for a Rebound?Technical Overview: The monthly chart of USD/CAD shows a weakening phase of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Currently, the price is located at a key support zone around 1.3800. The RSI suggests a potential technical rebound, but the bearish structure remains intact until the resistance at 1.4000 is broken. Seasonality: According to seasonal trend data, the month of May historically shows a slightly positive trend for USD/CAD: 20 years: +0.0017 15 years: -0.0027 10 years: +0.0014 5 years: +0.0039 2 years: -0.0020 This trend highlights a historical short-term weakness (2 years), while over longer periods, the movement is marginally positive. COT Report: COT data shows an increase in long positions on the dollar (+2,158 contracts), while short positions also increased (+2,817 contracts). This suggests uncertainty among institutional traders, with a slight inclination towards short positions. Market Sentiment: Data indicates that 65% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, while only 35% are long. This could signal a potential squeeze if the price breaks above resistance levels. Operational Conclusion: Considering the bearish pressure and technical structure, a prudent strategy could include: Long Entry: Above 1.4000 with confirmation on lower timeframes. Stop Loss: Below 1.3800 to minimize exposure to false breakouts. Primary Target: 1.4200, then 1.4400. Alternative Strategy: If the price rejects the 1.4000 resistance, consider shorting towards 1.3700.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
USDCAD: Bullish Wave on the Horizon?USDCAD: Bullish Wave on the Horizon? From early April to early May, USDCAD moved within a broad accumulation pattern without a clear direction. However, in the past week, the pair made its first bullish wave, climbing nearly 260 pips. Now, USDCAD appears to be accumulating once again, potentially setting up for another bullish wave. If this momentum continues, the price may extend toward the 1.4100 and 1.4200 levels. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
7
USD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly LowsUSD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly Lows The USD/CAD chart is currently showing clear signs of a bearish trend, characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows (A→B→C→D→E→F→G). This week’s decline suggests the downward structure may continue to develop, putting the current yearly low around the 1.3770 level at risk. Why Is USD/CAD Falling? On one hand, the US dollar remains under pressure: → Following last week’s downgrade of US debt ratings by Moody’s, investor attention has shifted to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden. → A tax bill backed by Donald Trump — recently passed in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives — could add trillions more to the national debt. Market participants may be increasingly concerned about the US’s fiscal outlook, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has strengthened this week relative to other major currencies. Tuesday’s CPI figures from Canada came in above analysts’ expectations and may be seen as a sign that the inflation surge could delay any potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. USD/CAD Technical Analysis In early May, we outlined a descending channel on the USD/CAD chart — a structure that remains relevant today. The current price is hovering near the channel’s median line, which could indicate a temporary balance between supply and demand. However, with Canadian retail sales data due at 15:30 GMT+3 today, the risk of increased volatility remains high. A new weekly low cannot be ruled out. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Bullish momentum to extend?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3893 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3837 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.4061 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD Tests Key Trendline and Support ZoneUSDCAD has dropped below the 1.40 level after previously testing the 1.47 resistance during peak tariff fears. With the dollar index weakening and trade-related concerns easing, USDCAD has pulled back to a key trendline on the daily timeframe. Since 2015, USDCAD has traded within a broad range between 1.20 and 1.47. After testing the 1.20 support in mid-2021, the pair entered a steady uptrend, which is now being tested once again. In addition to the rising trendline, there is also a horizontal support zone at 1.37–1.3880—previously a key resistance area during the 2023–2025 period. This convergence of trendline and horizontal support could provide strong support. As long as the trendline holds, this test may offer a medium-term buying opportunity with a well-defined support area. Potential upside targets include 1.4020 and 1.4175, with a possible medium-term push back toward 1.47 if broader conditions align.
Long
by ftdsystem
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance>The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 1.3904 1st Support: 1.3781 1st Resistance: 1.3988 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bearish reversal for the Loonie?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3904 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.4006 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.3763 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 19 - 23 MayMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rate Decision, Canada & UK Inflation Rate, Earnings Reports In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode, we discuss: — RBA’s Interest Rate Decision — Inflation Rate in Canada — Inflation Rate in the UK — Corporate Earnings Statements Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USD/CAD 1.4000 Rejection -> 2025 LowsUSD-weakness was back in a big way this week and even as other pairs had yielded to the USD-breakout into last Monday, with fresh lows in EUR/USD and fresh highs in USD/JPY - USD/CAD retained its bearish structure with a hold of resistance right at the 1.4000 level. Price is now 250ish pips lower as sellers have went back to work and there's potential for breakdown scenarios given this hold near support following a pullback to the big figure. For those looking to work with pullbacks, there's now resistance potential at prior swing lows 1.3814 and then 1.3846, and USD/CAD remains one of the more attractive venues for a continuation of Dollar weakness as we move towards the final week of May trade. - js
by FOREXcom
USD/CAD: A 4H Technical and Fundamental AnalysisUSD/CAD: A 4H Technical and Fundamental Analysis Technical Insight: The USD has recently weakened, reaching a two-week low against the CAD—a move driven largely by mounting U.S. fiscal concerns. On the USD/CAD 4-hour time frame, we observed a minor key resistance at 1.3900 and support at 1.3850, the latter of which has already been broken. Following the breakout, price has entered a post-breakout accumulation phase—a typical institutional behavior where orders are layered before a decisive move. Currently, price appears to be hunting for liquidity—a common market dynamic where early breakout traders are flushed out. There are two zones of interest: 1️⃣ First liquidity pool just above the broken support 2️⃣ Final liquidity pool above key resistance at 1.3900 Should price trigger the second zone, it could present a more strategic area for market participants to reassess positioning based on a favorable risk-reward structure. 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): The area of interest lies around 1.38830, just below the key resistance and close to the potential liquidity sweep zone. This zone becomes relevant if price hunts the liquidity above the recent high (1.3900) and shows signs of rejection or exhaustion. 🛡 Risk Perspective (Stop-Loss Idea): From a risk management viewpoint, institutional traders would likely place invalidation levels just above 1.39180, which sits beyond the anticipated liquidity sweep and is considered the upper bound of the stop hunt zone. 🎯 Profit Perspective (Target Idea): A reasonable profit zone, based on structure, could be placed near the next minor support around 1.38180, where price last found buying interest prior to the breakout. Fundamental Overview: Credit Downgrade: Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, raising alarm over rising national debt and fiscal indiscipline. Treasury Weakness: A poorly received 20-year Treasury auction signals waning investor confidence, pushing yields higher. Shift in Sentiment: As uncertainty grows, capital is flowing into alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold, both hitting fresh highs—an indication of reduced trust in the dollar’s safe-haven status. On the flip side, the Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground: 📈 Why the Loonie Is Rising: Political Stability: With Mark Carney stepping in post-Trudeau, investor confidence has strengthened amid expectations of prudent fiscal management. Steady Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain current interest rates, reinforcing CAD's appeal. Stronger Trade Outlook: Ongoing efforts to diversify trade and resolve disputes have contributed to CAD resilience. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.
Short
by RebornFXTrader