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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD - Channel Breakout (10.06.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3757 2nd Resistance – 1.3792 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
34
USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Education
by David_Perk
29
USD/CAD.1week chart pattern.It looks like me discussing a trade setup for USD/CAD with: Sell Entry: 1.36200 Target Point 1: 1.23504 Target Point 2: 2.31000 ← This seems like a mistake Let’s break it down: --- 🔍 Trade Analysis: Sell at 1.36200: This is a reasonable short entry, near recent resistance (depending on current market context). Target Point 1 (1.23504): This is plausible, as it's a historically significant support level — a good long-term take-profit zone. Target Point 2 (2.31000): This appears illogical for a short (sell) position — it's higher than the entry price. If you're shorting, you profit from a decline, not a rise. --- ✅ Corrected Setup (Sell Idea): Sell USD/CAD @ 1.36200 Take Profit 1: 1.30000 (medium-term support) Take Profit 2: 1.23500 (long-term support) Stop Loss: 1.37200 (just above recent highs) Would you like a chart analysis or backtest of this strategy?
Short
by RSI_Trading_point
18
Bearish momentum to meet support on USDCAD: Looking for a bounceEvening, just wanted to share what I’m seeing on the USDCAD chart Price on USDCAD has been in clear bearish momentum, but we’re now approaching a strong support zone, that’s held firm multiple times before, as I marked it on my chart. Price is approaching the zone again and I am taking it into account for a potential bounce. I’ll be watching for bullish confirmation as usual requirement before entering. If that support holds, I’m targeting 1.38400 , totally achievable if momentum shifts. BUT, if this zone breaks with momentum, I’ll reassess it and stay flexible. 💡 Reminder: Patience is power, no entry until price shows me something worth reacting to. This is not financial advice.
Long
by TrendDiva
39
USDCAD Hits Support as Fed-Hawkish & BoC Cuts! Big Bounce ComingUSDCAD ( OANDA:USDCAD ) is trading at the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and near the important Support line and Support lines . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that USDCAD has managed to complete 5 main down waves and we can expect more up waves . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys . I expect USDCAD to rise to at least 1.37860 CAD. Fundamental View: The Bank of Canada initiated its rate-cutting cycle , while the Federal Reserve remains firm with no immediate plans to ease. Strong NFP data on Friday reinforced USD ( TVC:DXY ) strength . Oil prices( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) may offer temporary support to CAD , but macro divergences clearly favor the dollar . Note: Stop Loss(SL)= 1.36110 CAD U.S Dollar/Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
12
Israel-Iran Confrontation. (I expect upward movement in USD/CADIsrael and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold. in the meantime, investors are shifting their focus to key events this week. The main highlights will be the consumer inflation reports from the UK and the eurozone. In the EU, inflation is expected to stabilize at 1.9%, while in the UK, it is forecast to decrease from 3.5% to 3.3% year over year. This week will also bring central bank meetings in Switzerland, the UK, and, of course, the U.S. Federal Reserve-which will likely take center stage and divert attention from the tow European central banks. Other events worth focusing on include the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index U.S. retail sales figures. But let's return to the week's main event-the Fed's final monetary policy decision, which will be made over two days, Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the consensus forecast, the central bank is expected to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4,50% The main reasons for this are persistently high consumer inflation figures, which showed an annual increase last week (albeit smaller than expected), and uncertainty about the consequences of Donald Trump's presidency. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously cited both as reasons to pause the rate-cutting cycle. So, what might come of the Fed holding rates steady? Frankly, not much. Ongoing uncertainty will continue to be the primary driving force in the markets. Traders are starting to anticipate rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, I believe there is a strong chance that rates will remain unchanged until next year. This is due not only to risk of inflation returning to 3% and the murky geoeconomic policies of the U.S.-China trade war and its unclear outcome. Given this combination of negative factors-each of which obstructs rate cuts-and the fact that the market has already priced these into its expectations, we can anticipate a continuation of existing trends. The pair is declining amid rising crude oil prices, which support the Canadian dollar, a commodity-linked currency. If oil prices resume upward momentum, USD/CAD will face pressure again. If the pair fails to rise above 1,3600, a decline toward 1.3435 is likely. A potential sell level is 13560.
Long
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
4
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
USDCAD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my USDCAD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
2
Bearish continuation for the Loonie?The price has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.3725 1st Support: 1.3430 1st Resistance: 1.3837 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
2
USD/CAD Holds Near 2025 LowUSD/CAD Holds Near 2025 Low When we last analysed the USD/CAD chart on 4 June, we identified a descending channel that remains relevant. On 5 June, the pair reached a new low for 2025, and it is possible that bears will attempt to extend this move further over the course of the month. Why is USD/CAD declining? The Canadian dollar appears to be strengthening amid speculation that a trade agreement between the US and Canada could be finalised soon — possibly on 15 June, when the G7 summit is due to be held in Canada. Media reports highlight several indicators supporting this view: → Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada will meet its NATO spending target of 2% of GDP. → Canada refrained from retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminium. → The US ambassador to Canada confirmed that “secret” negotiations are ongoing. Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart Note that the R-line, which divides the lower half of the descending channel into two equal parts, acted as resistance — price reversed downward from this line and accelerated lower (as indicated by the arrow). This reinforces the view that bears currently dominate the USD/CAD market. For now, the 1.3650 level appears to be a support zone for bulls, but its strength may be tested today as markets react to US inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release today at 15:30 GMT+3. Be prepared for potential spikes in volatility. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Bearish continuation?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3595 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.3644 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3545 Why we like it: There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
Oil's Volatility Meets Fed's Patience: A Path to 1.3643?USDCAD – Oil's Volatility Meets Fed's Patience: A Path to 1.3643? 🌍 Macro Landscape: Diverging Monetary Paths & Oil's Influence The USDCAD pair is currently navigating a complex environment shaped by diverging central bank policies and the significant influence of crude oil prices. While the Federal Reserve is signaling a "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance due to sticky inflation, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is in a more nuanced position, balancing inflation control with economic growth. This divergence creates a fundamental tailwind for the USD. However, Canada's economy is heavily tied to commodity prices, especially crude oil. Recent volatility in oil markets can exert significant pressure on the Canadian dollar. If oil prices remain subdued or face downward pressure, it could exacerbate the CAD's weakness against the USD, amplifying the impact of policy divergence. 🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed's Firmness vs. BoC's Caution Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows persistent price pressure, particularly in the services sector, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish bias. This suggests the USD may retain its strength as higher rates attract capital. Bank of Canada: The BoC, while having taken aggressive steps previously, might be more cautious in its future rate decisions. Any dovish undertones or hints at pausing rate hikes could weaken the CAD. Conversely, a resurgence in inflation or stronger economic data could prompt the BoC to maintain a firm stance. This policy divergence, coupled with external factors like commodity prices, creates a fertile ground for significant moves in USDCAD. 🌐 Capital Flows: Safe-Haven Dynamics and Commodity Impact Global capital flow models indicate a shift towards the US dollar as a preferred safe haven amidst geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties. While Gold remains a traditional hedge, the USD's yield advantage makes it an attractive destination for institutional capital. For CAD, its sensitivity to commodity prices means that capital flows are heavily influenced by the outlook for global growth and energy demand. A softening global economic outlook could lead to reduced demand for commodities, weighing on the CAD, and potentially driving inflows into USD-based assets. 📊 Technical Structure: Channel Breakdown & Bearish Momentum Towards 1.3643 On the H1 chart (as observed from the provided image): Price Channel: USDCAD has been trading within a clear ascending channel. However, the price recently broke below the lower boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. Moving Averages: The price has moved below the EMA 13 – 34 – 89. This bearish alignment (EMA "fan-out formation" in reverse) confirms a short-term bearish momentum is building. The 200 EMA (red line) is currently acting as a key resistance level, near the prior support turned resistance. Key Resistance (Sell Zone): The region around 1.36989 (aligning with previous support and possibly a Fibonacci retracement level) is now acting as a crucial resistance. Any retest of this zone, especially with bearish candlestick patterns, could offer selling opportunities. The 200 EMA reinforces this zone as a strong overhead barrier. Key Support (Target Zone): The price is projected towards 1.36431. This level aligns with a strong prior support and also coincides with the Fibonacci Extension 1.382 level from a previous swing, making it a high-probability target for bearish moves. A bounce from 1.36734 (a mid-channel support or Fibonacci level) could offer a temporary reprieve, but the overall technical structure points to the lower target. 🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations Scenario 1 – Sell the Pullback (Preferred): Entry: 1.3685 – 1.3695 (retest of broken channel line/resistance near 1.36989, possibly confluence with 200 EMA). Stop-Loss: 1.3720 (above recent swing high/channel top). Take-Profit: 1.3673 (initial target) → 1.3643 (main target) → 1.3620. Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Sell (if price consolidates below 1.3673): Entry: 1.3670 (break below 1.36734 with strong bearish momentum). Stop-Loss: 1.3690. Take-Profit: 1.3643 → 1.3620. ⚠️ Key Events to Watch: US PCE Price Index (upcoming data): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD. Canadian CPI (upcoming data): Cooler-than-expected inflation could prompt a more dovish stance from the BoC, weakening CAD. Crude Oil Inventory/News: Any significant news or data regarding global oil supply/demand can directly impact CAD.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
1
USDCAD may hit bottom amid DXY declineThe dollar is weakening. Against this background, the Canadian dollar is strengthening, which puts pressure on the price of the currency pair. The key support is 1.3566. Breakdown of the level will strengthen the sell-off The price is descending by “steps”. Consolidation - distribution, consolidation - distribution. From the current range of 1.365 - 1.3566 I expect the same thing: downward momentum. Scenario: consolidation and price sticking to 1.3566, decrease in volatility and squeeze to the urvon may lead to a breakdown and a fall.
Short
by AndeWave
1
Falling towards overlap support?The Loonie is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 1.3595 1st Support: 1.3434 1st Resistance: 1.3990 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?USD/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3703 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3740 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.3644 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support whcih is a pullback support. Pivot: 1.3733 1st Support: 1.3650 1st Resistance: 1.3793 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets