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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD at Risk? COT Turns Bearish📊 COT Overview – CAD & USD Futures 🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Still net short, but recovering fast → from -150K to nearly -50K. Leveraged Money: Strong bullish reversal from -100K to -30K and climbing. ✅ Interpretation: Institutions are flipping bullish on CAD → Bearish pressure on USDCAD. 🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD) Asset Managers: Cutting long exposure since March. Leveraged Money: Losing conviction → neutral to slightly long. ⚠️ Interpretation: USD is structurally weakening → adding to the USDCAD bearish bias. 🧠 Technical Analysis Price has returned to the key demand zone (1.3700–1.3850) for the third test. Candles are compressing → signal of upcoming volatility. RSI remains weak, no bullish divergence → no clear reversal yet. 📌 Key Levels: Support: 1.3700 → A confirmed break opens space toward 1.3550–1.3480. Resistance: 1.3950–1.4100 🎯 Trade Scenarios 🔻 Breakdown trade below 1.3700 → Target: 1.3480 🔁 Pullback short on rejection from 1.3950–1.4000 → SL above 1.4100 🔼 Long only with a bullish engulfing weekly close + RSI divergence ✅ Summary COT Bias: Bearish USDCAD → CAD strengthening, USD weakening Technical Structure: Support under pressure, breakout likely Preferred Play: Short continuation on breakdown or pullback rejection
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/CAD(20250424)Today's AnalysisMarket News: The United States hit a 16-month low in April. The total number of new home sales in the United States in March was an annualized to a new high since September 2024. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3861 Support and resistance levels: 1.3966 1.3927 1.3901 1.3820 1.3794 1.3755 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3901, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3927 If the price breaks through 1.3861, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3820
Short
by Toml1314
Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. The Spring Is Compressing.In previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key drivers of the US outperformance over the past decade. The US market dominance has been largely driven by the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach and significant investor inflows. Unsatisfactory International Performance Markets outside the US have faced headwinds including multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger US dollar and the declining influence of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, US equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also widely dominated by the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three big themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the world's dominant reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend implies a shift away from the central role of the US dollar in global economic transactions to alternative currencies, assets, or financial systems. Historical context and significance of the US dollar The US dollar became the world's primary reserve currency after World War II, as enshrined in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. This system pegged other currencies to the dollar, which was convertible into gold, making the dollar the backbone of international finance. The United States became the world's leading economic power, and the dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the dominant currency for global trade and reserves. The dollar has been the most widely held reserve currency for decades. As of the end of 2024, it still accounts for about 57% of global foreign exchange reserves, far more than the euro (20%) and the Japanese yen (6%). However, this share has fallen from over 70% in 2001, signaling a gradual shift and prompting discussions about de-dollarization. How De-Dollarization Works Countries looking to reduce their reliance on the dollar are pursuing several strategies: Diversifying reserves: Central banks are holding fewer U.S. dollars and increasing their holdings of other currencies, such as the euro, yen, British pound, or new alternatives such as the Chinese yuan. While the yuan's share remains small (about 2.2%), it has grown, especially among countries like Russia. Using alternative currencies in trade: Countries are entering into bilateral or regional agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies rather than using the dollar as an intermediary. For example, China has introduced yuan-denominated oil futures (the "petroyuan") to challenge the petrodollar system. Increasing gold reserves: Many countries, including China, Russia and India, have significantly increased their purchases of gold as a safer reserve asset, reducing their dollar holdings. Developing alternative financial systems: Some countries and blocs, such as BRICS, are working to develop alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payment system to avoid the risk of sanctions and gain true economic and political independence. Reasons for de-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses dollar dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of new economic powers: Emerging economies like China and groups like the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the war in Ukraine have intensified efforts by countries like Russia to remove the dollar from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Implications and outlook While the dollar remains dominant, a more de-dollarized world is already changing global economic power. The U.S. may lose some advantages, such as lower borrowing costs and geopolitical influence. For the U.S. economy, de-dollarization could lead to a weaker currency, higher interest rates, and reduced foreign investment, although some effects, such as inflation from a weaker dollar, could belimited . For other countries, de-dollarization could mean greater economic independence and less exposure to U.S. policy risks. However, no currency currently matches the dollar’s ​​liquidity, stability, and global recognition, so a full transition is unlikely in the near future . Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce dependence on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization challenges the entrenched role of the dollar but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multipolar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments to the U.S. Technical task The main technical chart is presented in a quarterly breakdown, reflecting the dynamics of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD in the long term. With the continued positive momentum of the relative strength indicator RSI(14), flat support near the level of 0.70 and a decreasing resistance level (descending top/ flat bottom) in case of a breakout represent the possibility of price growth to 0.80, with the prospect of parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to all-time highs, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
Potential bullish rise?USD/CAD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3844 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Stop loss: 1.3781 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.4029 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD (1M) Bullish Pennant Structure and H ProjectionUSDCAD (1M) — Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Bullish Pennant Structure and H Projection On the monthly chart of USDCAD, a bullish pennant structure has been formed and confirmed with a breakout followed by a clean retest of the upper boundary. The price broke out of the consolidation zone with momentum and is currently holding above the key support at 1.3802. The structure remains active: the first target based on the projected move is 1.4905. If the impulse continues and the market structure remains intact, extended targets lie at 1.5690 (1.272), 1.6100 (1.414), and 1.6689 (1.618) Fibonacci expansions. Technically, the 1.3802 level (0.618 retracement) is the critical support. If this zone holds, the bullish scenario remains valid. The nearest resistance is 1.4287 (0.786), and a confirmed break above this level would likely trigger the next phase toward 1.49. Volume increased during the breakout, confirming strong buyer interest. Fundamentally, the setup is supported by diverging monetary policies: the Bank of Canada has signaled a more dovish stance due to slowing inflation and economic softness, while the Federal Reserve remains more neutral and cautious about rate cuts. In addition, oil prices — a key factor for the Canadian dollar — are under pressure, weakening the CAD further. Broader macro uncertainty and the global demand for USD as a reserve and safe-haven asset continue to support the dollar, strengthening the USDCAD pair. Conclusion: As long as the price holds above the 1.38 zone and confirms above 1.4287, the bullish structure remains in play with a target of 1.4905 and potential extensions to 1.5690–1.6100.
Long
by TotoshkaTrades
USDCAD Short 4/23/2025USD/CAD Short Setup – Break of Daily Demand + Textbook Triangle Unwind This short is built off both macro fundamentals and multi-timeframe technical precision. Daily Chart: USD/CAD has been steadily breaking structure to the downside. Yesterday's close was significant — we broke below a major daily demand zone at 1.38221, signaling a shift in longer-term sentiment. Today’s price action has already retested yesterday’s high into that broken zone — a classic break-and-retest setup. 4H Chart: A clear 5-wave triangle correction is printing — text-book stuff. We’re nearing the breakout point. Price is pressing against the lower boundary, and momentum looks ready to shift. A potential Evening Star pattern is forming right now, supported by an inside bar and a follow-up bearish hammer — a stacked reversal signal. 1H Chart: Structure confirms the 4H — all signs point toward a correction completing and a new impulsive leg down beginning. Fundamentals: Later today, the U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to show contraction — a negative for the dollar. If the data misses expectations, it could amplify the bearish move on USD/CAD. We’re also tracking oil closely — further CAD strength via crude would accelerate the downside here. Trade Plan: Entry: Current area near the 1.382 retest SL: Above triangle high TP1: 1:1 R:R – partial take profit (75%) TP2: Let the remaining 25% run with structure-based trailing If the setup confirms post-PMI, this could be a strong follow-through play after a major HTF breakdown.
Short
by Big6Financial
USDCAD INTRADAY Downtrend continuation below 1.4060. The USDCAD pair is exhibiting a bearish sentiment, reinforced by the ongoing downtrend. The key trading level to watch is at 1.4060, which represents the current intraday swing low and the falling resistance trendline level. In the short term, an oversold rally from current levels, followed by a bearish rejection at the 1.4060 resistance, could lead to a downside move targeting support at 1.3780, with further potential declines to 1.3730 and 1.3630 over a longer timeframe. On the other hand, a confirmed breakout above the 1.4060 resistance level and a daily close above that mark would invalidate the bearish outlook. This scenario could pave the way for a continuation of the rally, aiming to retest the 1.4080 resistance, with a potential extension to 1.4160 levels. Conclusion: Currently, the USDCAD sentiment remains bearish, with the 1.4060 level acting as a pivotal resistance. Traders should watch for either a bearish rejection at this level or a breakout and daily close above it to determine the next directional move. Caution is advised until the price action confirms a clear break or rejection. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USD/CAD H1 | Rising into a multi-swing-high resistanceUSD/CAD is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.3849 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.3915 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 1.3735 which is a support level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
BUY USDCAD for bearish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 1.37774 BUY USDCAD for bearish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 1.37774 Regular Bullish Divergence In case of Regular Bullish Divergence: * The Indicator shows Higher Lows * Actual Market Price shows Lower Lows We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart..... The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this strong level of Support so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here ..... TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with…….trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here
Long
by BALE_FX
USDCAD Will Go Up From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.385. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.396 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1