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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD Analysis: Buyers Defend Key Level Ahead of NFP DataUSDCAD Analysis: Buyers Defend Key Level Ahead of NFP Data Since April 20, USDCAD has been moving sideways without a clear trend. However, in recent days, the pair has found strong support around 1.3780 for the second time, suggesting that buyers are actively defending this zone. With the upcoming NFP data, there's potential for a bullish move. If the report fuels buying momentum, USDCAD could rise toward the resistance levels at 1.3855 and 1.3890, as seen on the chart. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
4
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D7 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D7 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅15' order block identified ✅ inconclusive regarding 15' mitigated, therefore 5' order block identified after potential 15' mitigation ✅4 Hour order block ✅4 Hour 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
Watching carefully USDCAD this weekWith the abundance of US & CAN data this week, we may see some interesting action in USDCAD pair. Let's dig in. Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
USD/CAD could decrease to C$1.35The US dollar has weakened recently against other major currencies including the euro, pound and yen. While it may not have grabbed the headlines, there’s another currency we can add to that list: the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar – which was trading at around C$1.45 per US dollar at the end of January – may continue to strengthen against its southerly neighbour in the near term, potentially reaching C$1.35 per US dollar. Let’s examine why. The area between C$1.38 and C$1.39 has previously served as a resistance zone for USD/CAD, marking significant tops in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Each time, this area ended the dollar’s gains and led to a renewed period of Canadian dollar strength. The pattern changed in October 2024, when – after multiple failed attempts to break through resistance – USD/CAD finally pushed to a new high of C$1.45. Now, as USD/CAD declines from that peak, the old resistance area of C$1.38 to C$1.39 is providing support. If USD/CAD falls below support at C$1.38, it could decline towards C$1.347, partly because there are no meaningful levels of support to slow such a move. A falling bear flag pattern also seems to be forming, suggesting that a breakdown may be imminent, potentially supporting a drop to around C$1.35. Meanwhile, the completion of the diamond reversal top that formed from December 2024 to March 2025 could imply a return to the pattern’s origin near C$1.35. The USD/CAD chart pattern also shows a high degree of symmetry between the left and right sides. In other words, the decline on the right side is occurring at a similar pace to the earlier rise on the left. Completing this symmetrical pattern might suggest a return to the starting point around C$1.35. Of course, if support at C$1.38 holds and the Canadian dollar does not strengthen further, a swift rise for the US dollar back towards C$1.41 cannot be ruled out. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management  Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
by cmcmarkets
USDCADUSDCAD Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): The Fed’s policy rate is currently around 4.25%–4.50%, having held steady in early May 2025 amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. Bank of Canada (BoC): The BoC has been on a rate-cutting path, with the benchmark rate at 2.75% as of April 2025, reflecting weaker Canadian economic data and inflation cooling. Further easing is expected through 2025, likely at a faster pace than the Fed. Resulting Differential: The widening interest rate gap of approximately 1.5–1.75 percentage points favors the U.S. dollar, supporting USD strength against the Canadian dollar. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Canada: BoC Monetary Policy Reports and Rate Decisions: Next key updates expected mid-to-late May 2025, with markets pricing in further rate cuts. GDP and Trade Data: Early Q2 releases will indicate how tariffs and global demand are impacting Canada’s export-driven economy. Employment Data: Labor market strength or weakness will influence BoC’s policy stance. United States: Inflation (CPI, PCE) and Employment Reports: These will guide Fed’s future rate decisions and impact USD strength. GDP Growth and Manufacturing Data: Key indicators for economic momentum amid tariff-related uncertainties. The widening interest rate differential between the Fed and BoC, combined with expected further BoC rate cuts and relatively resilient U.S. economic data, supports a bullish bias for USD/CAD in the near term. Key Canadian inflation and GDP data in May will be critical in determining the pace of BoC easing and CAD’s outlook, while U.S. inflation and employment reports will influence Fed policy and USD strength. The Canadian dollar (CAD) is historically and fundamentally closely linked to oil prices due to Canada’s status as one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters. Here’s how oil prices affect the CAD: 1. Direct Correlation Between Oil Prices and CAD Value Canada earns a significant portion of its U.S. dollar revenue from crude oil exports. When oil prices rise, Canada receives more U.S. dollars per barrel exported, increasing the inflow of foreign currency into the Canadian economy. This increased demand for Canadian dollars to pay for oil-related transactions tends to strengthen the CAD relative to the U.S. dollar. Conversely, when oil prices fall, the CAD typically weakens. Historically, the correlation between oil prices and USD/CAD has been strong and negative (when oil rises, USD/CAD falls, meaning CAD strengthens). 2. Impact on Canada’s Trade Balance and Economy Higher oil prices improve Canada’s trade balance by increasing export revenues, which supports economic growth and boosts investor confidence in the CAD. The energy sector contributes significantly to Canada’s GDP and employment, so oil price movements have broader economic implications that influence currency strength. 3. Changing Dynamics and Recent Weakening of Correlation In recent years, the tight link between oil prices and the CAD has weakened due to several factors: A larger share of oil company revenues goes to foreign shareholders rather than being reinvested domestically, reducing the flow of U.S. dollars back into Canada. Discounts on Canadian oil prices (e.g., Western Canada Select vs. WTI) reduce the effective revenue Canada earns. Other factors like global risk sentiment, U.S.-Canada trade dynamics, and diverging economic fundamentals have become more influential on CAD movements. The 3-month correlation between oil prices and USD/CAD has recently dropped close to zero, indicating oil prices alone no longer dominate CAD valuation. In essence: While oil prices remain an important factor for the Canadian dollar, especially over the long term, the direct correlation has diminished recently. The CAD’s value now reflects a more complex mix of oil market dynamics, foreign investment flows, trade relations, and broader economic conditions. Nonetheless, sharp moves in oil prices still tend to influence the price action especially in periods of strong market sentiment or volatility.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
AUDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D12 Y25AUDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D12 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅ Weekly order block ✅Intraday 15 order block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure to be confirmed 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
USDCAD Is Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 1.378. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.399 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
USD/CAD Hints at Bullish ReversalBearish momentum has continued to wane on USD/CAD, as bears continue to make hard work of fresh cycle lows. That has allowed a bullish RSI divergence to form on the daily chart alongside a falling wedge pattern. That is has formed around historical VPOC (volume point of controls) adds further weight to the potential bullish reversal. Also note that a bullish engulfing candle formed on Wednesday to suggest a bullish breakout could be pending. Bulls could seek dips towards the September VPOC in anticipation of a bullish breakout, and retain a bullish prices while they remain above recent swing lows. The core target is the base of the wedge, just below 1.4. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Long
by CityIndex
USD/CAD Bulls Emerge at Support- Breakout ExtendsUSD/CAD rebounded off the lower parallel of the March downtrend with a breakout of the weekly opening-range extending into pivotal resistance. Support now rests with the low-day close (LDC) / 61.8% retracement of the December 2023 advance / monthly open at 1.3778/98- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption towards the 78.6% retracement of the September advance at 1.3714 and the March high at 1.3614 . A topside breach above this pivot zone at the median-line exposes key resistance at 1.3977-1.4010 - a region defined by the 2022 high, the 2020 March weekly reversal close and the 200-day moving average. A close above this region would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week / a larger reversal is underway with subsequent objectives eyed at the 1.41 -handle and 1.4149/78 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: A rebound off downtrend support takes USD/CAD into the topside of a multi-week range – risk of a larger recovery while above the weekly open. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3778 IF price is heading higher on this stretch – look for a larger reaction on test of the 200-day moving average. -MB
by FOREXcom
USDCAD INTRADAY range trading capped at 1.4050The USDCAD pair is exhibiting a bearish sentiment, reinforced by the ongoing downtrend. The key trading level to watch is at 1.4060, which represents the current intraday swing low and the falling resistance trendline level. In the short term, an oversold rally from current levels, followed by a bearish rejection at the 1.4060 resistance, could lead to a downside move targeting support at 1.3780, with further potential declines to 1.3730 and 1.3630 over a longer timeframe. On the other hand, a confirmed breakout above the 1.4060 resistance level and a daily close above that mark would invalidate the bearish outlook. This scenario could pave the way for a continuation of the rally, aiming to retest the 1.4080 resistance, with a potential extension to 1.4160 levels. Conclusion: Currently, the USDCAD sentiment remains bearish, with the 1.4060 level acting as a pivotal resistance. Traders should watch for either a bearish rejection at this level or a breakout and daily close above it to determine the next directional move. Caution is advised until the price action confirms a clear break or rejection. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation