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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD Butterfly Harmonic Pattern - Potential Reversal Setup?The chart focuses on the USD/CAD currency pair and highlights a visible harmonic pattern, along with technical indicators that provide additional signals. The analysis is based on a 4-hour chart, giving insight into short to medium-term trading opportunities. The visible pattern on this chart is a Butterfly Pattern, which differs from the Gartley pattern by typically signaling a strong reversal at point D, often leading to a sharp corrective move. The chart suggests that point D has been reached, signaling a possible buying opportunity. Technical Indicators: The TDIGM indicator suggesting that selling pressure is exausted, and an upward move might be imminent. Price appears to have found support near point D, indicating that sellers are losing strength, and a bounce may be on the horizon. Strategies: 1.Short-Term Long Position: Since point D represents the completion of the Butterfly pattern, it suggests a potential bullish reversal. A buying strategy could be profitable here. Buy Entry: Near point D (around 1.3435), where the chart shows price stabilizing after the decline. Stop Loss: Below point D, around 1.3400, to protect against a false support break. Take Profit: Initial targets can be around 1.3500 and 1.3550, based on previous resistance levels and the expected recovery. 2.Short-Selling on a Breakout: If the identified support at point D breaks, a selling strategy may be considered. Sell Entry: Below 1.3400. Stop Loss: Above 1.3450, in case of a false breakdown. Take Profit: Targets can be set around 1.3350 and 1.3300, based on previous support levels. If the Butterfly pattern holds and point D maintains support, we expect an upward move; if price breaks below point D, further declines are likely.
Long
by MrVNpt
USD/CAD 1H Bearish Outlook: Distribution Phase 1. Market Structure Overview The market appears to be in a Wyckoff Distribution Phase, as evidenced by the formations of UT (Upthrust) and UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution). This suggests a shift from accumulation to distribution, where large institutional players are offloading positions. LPSY (Last Point of Supply): The market has already completed a major distribution event, with the LPSY confirming the last attempt to drive prices higher before a downward move. The BOS (Break of Structure) in the 4H timeframe signifies a bearish transition, further confirming the market's intent to reverse from the current distribution range. 2. Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracements Resistance Zone: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3587 represents a significant resistance level, aligning with the BC Distribution Zone on both the 1H and Daily timeframes. Any upward retracements would likely find resistance around this level. Support Levels: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3560 serves as a critical short-term support. 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.3535 aligns with key internal support levels from previous price action and provides a potential downside target. Point of Control (POC) for 1H distribution sits around 1.35604, highlighting where the most trading volume has occurred. This is a significant level for potential reversals or rejections if prices return to this area. 3. Current Market Sentiment and Projection Current Price Action is located around 1.3510, which aligns with a weak low forming the A-leg of a corrective pattern. This corrective movement (Wave A) follows a sharp downtrend from the UTAD. Phase B Leg (Expected): The market is likely entering a retracement or pullback, with Wave B expected to bounce towards the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.3560. This would be the ideal level for a bearish continuation. Wave C Completion: Following the Wave B bounce, the chart suggests another leg down (Wave C), which should aim for lower support zones around 1.3440 to 1.3419, targeting the sell-side liquidity and completing a bearish market cycle. 4. Liquidity Zones Sell-Side Liquidity: As the market approaches 1.3419, sell-side liquidity from retail positions is expected to be captured. This zone marks the end of the current leg down and could trigger larger order flow or institutional interest. Buy-Side Liquidity is located above 1.3560, and any significant upward retracement into this area would likely result in a strong reaction from sellers, driving prices lower again. 5. Risk/Reward and Trading Plan Short Setup: Entry: Look for short positions between 1.3560 (0.618 Fib level) and 1.3587 (0.786 Fib). Stop-Loss: Place the stop above 1.3606, just above the LPSY to account for volatility and fake-out moves. Take-Profit Targets: Target 1: 1.3535 (0.5 Fibonacci level), representing the first leg of profit-taking. Target 2: 1.3440 for a deeper retracement and to capture the sell-side liquidity. Invalidation Point: Any bullish break above 1.3606 would invalidate the bearish setup, as it would signify that the UTAD failed, and the market could enter a continuation of the uptrend. 6. Volume Profile The Volume Profile shows the highest volume concentration between 1.3545 and 1.3580, indicating that any upward retracement into this zone could face heavy selling pressure. Price is likely to struggle here as this area represents where institutional traders have placed significant orders. 7. Market Bias The market bias is bearish, given the clear Wyckoff Distribution, BOS, and lower-high structure forming. The primary expectation is a corrective pullback to the 0.618/0.786 retracement zones, followed by a continuation of the downtrend to capture sell-side liquidity at lower levels. Summary Bearish Outlook: The market is in a distribution phase and is expected to move lower after a minor retracement. Key Levels: Watch for resistance at 1.3560-1.3587 and target support levels around 1.3440 to 1.3419. Risk Management: Use 1.3606 as a stop-loss and aim for a high risk/reward ratio, especially considering the strong volume profile between 1.3545 and 1.3580.
by spacedevil
3
USDCAD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.3490, which is a pullback resistance Our take profit will be at 1.3421, a swing-low support level. The stop loss will be at 1.3569, an overlap resistance level close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USDCAD Will Collapse! SELL! My dear friends, USDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.3596 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 1.3547 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3624 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
USDCAD: Curve Analysis (1D)The USDCAD on the 1-Day timeframe shows that the pair is hovering in a downtrend, with indicators revealing mixed but predominantly bearish signals. OSCILLATORS OVERVIEW The majority of oscillators remain in NEUTRAL territory, suggesting limited momentum in either direction. Key metrics include: RSI (14) : 39.50 (NEUTRAL) Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) : 42.11 (NEUTRAL) Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) : −48.23 (NEUTRAL) MACD Level (12, 26) : −0.0019 (BUY) Momentum (10) : −0.0096 (SELL) Notably, the MACD shows a BUY signal, but this is outweighed by the SELL signal from the Momentum oscillator, indicating that short-term buying pressure might be fading. MOVING AVERAGES All significant moving averages (both exponential and simple) indicate a strong SELL bias. This aligns with the prevailing BEARISH sentiment. Key moving averages include: EMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200): All SELL SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200): All SELL Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26): NEUTRAL Hull MA (9): SELL Price Action appears to have satisfied the Supply Range; however, I have prepared four NEW Sell Limit Orders (SLOs) to capitalize on the possibility of Price Action retracing to the upside. I'm targeting previous Points of Control (POC) and Take Profit Levels. We still have a couple of Take Profit (TP) levels left to secure during the potential move down. Additionally, two Buy Limit Orders (BLOs) are positioned for a potential recovery at lower price levels. NEW SELLING OPPORTUNITIES Based on previous levels SLO1 @ 1.3754 📉 SLO2: 1.3822 📉 POC @ 1.3667 ⏳, NEW SLO HERE TP1 @ 1.3625 💰, NEW SLO HERE POC @ 1.3578 ⏳, NEW SLO HERE TP2 @ 1.3517 💰, NEW SLO HERE TP3 @ 1.3437 TP4 @ 1.3313 BLO1 @ 1.3284⏳ BLO2 @ 1.3212⏳ 🚫The Stop-Loss (SL) for the pivot high is set at 1.38561, while the pivot low is guarded by a Stop-Loss at 1.3178. This allows for risk management as the market fluctuates within the range. SUMMARY USDCAD currently reflects a strong BEARISH sentiment across moving averages, with oscillators providing mixed, yet largely NEUTRAL signals. Price Action nearing any of the New Sell Limit Orders will dictate the next phase, but the DOWNTREND bias remains firm. Stay attentive as price approaches critical zones and prepare for potential downside moves with the predefined SLOs, TPs, and BLOs. ⏳ = PENDING 📈 = BLO TRIGGERED 📉 = SLO TRIGGERED 💰 = TOOK PROFIT
Short
by ProfessorCEWard