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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD – Breakdown Retest Offering Strategic Short OpportunityWeek of: April 7–11, 2025 Bias: Bearish Trade Duration: 2–5 Days Status: Breakdown Confirmed – Retesting from Below Current Reflexivity Phase: Phase 3 – Crowd Denial / Re-Entry Trap Strategy Type: Structural Breakdown + Sentiment Dislocation Execution Style: Reactive, not predictive 🧠 Strategic Thesis USD/CAD has broken decisively below its prior 2-week base and is now retesting that structure from below. The pair is showing textbook behavior of distribution > breakdown > retest—a setup that often leads to emotional unwinds when conviction collapses. Though USD sentiment remains firm, the structure disagrees—and price is leading positioning. 🔍 Structure Breakdown Highlights Clear break beneath consolidation range Retest is unfolding in low-momentum fashion (no bullish drive) Lower highs persist on multiple timeframes No fresh demand seen on the retest so far Ideal short continuation trigger if rejection holds 📊 COT & Sentiment Snapshot Leveraged Funds: Still long USD/CAD, but have begun reducing size Commercials: Gradual CAD accumulation underway Open Interest: Rises on down moves, fades on up moves — shows weak demand conviction Retail Sentiment: Still bullish on USD, ignoring structural breakdown Institutional Bias: Quiet rotation toward CAD strength 📌 Translation: Belief in USD remains, but smart money is already moving. This dislocation is your edge. 🧠 Behavioral Finance Triggers “Crowds trust the story. Price tells the truth.” Anchoring to old bullish setups Late buyers still entering on dips Retest becomes a re-entry trap for overconfident longs If rejection confirms, emotional exits fuel momentum 🔄 Reflexivity Model – Phase Breakdown Phase Description Phase 1: USD/CAD long crowd builds on USD strength narrative Phase 2: Structure breaks below key base – already completed Phase 3: Now Active – Crowd in denial, price retesting from below Phase 4: Flush and capitulation if retest fails, triggering stop cascades ✅ Current Phase: 3 – Re-Entry Trap / Denial Before Exit 🛠️ Execution Plan Entry: Wait for clean rejection candle or lower-high after retest Risk Management: Invalidate if structure is reclaimed and price sustains above the broken zone Exit Plan: Scale out as price moves into areas of prior demand or volume voids Trade Style: Tactical, reactive — confirm behavior before acting Expected Duration: 2–5 trading days if follow-through holds 🕰️ Execution Timeline Monday: Monitor the retest — don’t rush entry Tuesday–Wednesday: Best window for rejection and short setup Thursday–Friday: Manage open exposure, secure gains or trail ✅ Strategic Summary This is not a top call — the top is already in Structure has changed, but belief lags The crowd is doubling down — structure is calling their bluff Let rejection confirm, then lean into the unwind “You don’t need to predict. Just follow the failure.”
Short
by pharyeh
Canadian dollar slides as Canada's job growth declinesThe Canadian dollar has stabilized on Monday after declining close to 1% on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4225, up 0.23% on the day. It has been a roller-coaster for the Canadian dollar, which jumped 1.1% on Thursday but gave up almost all of the gains a day later. Canada's economy shed 32.6 thousand jobs in March, the biggest decline since August 2022. This was a sharp reversal from the 1.1 thousand gain in February and much lower than the market estimate of 12 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.6% and the participation rate ticked lower to 65.2% from 65.3%. The employment data points to weakness in the labor market and the economic chill from the latest US tariffs could lead to further deterioration of the employment landscape. Businesses are holding back on investment and hiring due to the economic uncertainty and the plunge in oil prices will hurt the economy, as Canada is a major oil producer. US nonfarm payrolls surprised on the upside with a gain of 228 thousand, up from a revised 117 thousand in February and above the market estimate of 135 thousand. This was the strongest nonfarm payroll reading in three months. The positive employment report was overshadowed by the latest round of US tariffs which have sent the financial markets tumbling lower. There are increasing fears that the US tariffs and expected counter-tariffs could upend the US economy and tip it into a recession. Investors are hoping that the Trump administration will reduce the tariffs or at least announce negotiations will take place with targeted countries. So far, however, Trump has sounded defiant and said that the tariffs will stay in place.
by OANDA
USDCAD Will Go Higher! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.424. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.440 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Intraday Preview: Consolidation and waiting | Prospect: +100pipsThe View: Although the possibility of further consolidation cannot be ruled out, it is expected to remain limited in scope. Market momentum remains subdued; however, there are signs of stabilization that support the likelihood of a gradual upward trend, provided no new negative developments emerge in the external environment. Buy Scenario: Although the possibility of further consolidation cannot be ruled out, it is expected to remain limited in scope. Market momentum remains subdued; however, there are signs of stabilization that support the likelihood of a gradual upward move, provided no new negative developments occur in the external environment. In this context, long positions are maintained above 1.4170, with targets at 1.4300 and 1.4340 in extension. Sell Scenario: Despite signs of potential stabilization, a break below the 1.4170 level may trigger renewed downward pressure. In such a scenario, the likelihood of further decline increases, with the next targets seen at 1.4100 and 1.4080. The inability to hold key support levels could act as a catalyst for short-term bearish momentum.
Long
by Ioan_Trading
Heading into pullback resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 1.4389 1st Support: 1.3951 1st Resistance: 1.4505 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
USD/CAD Rejection Trade Setup – Short from Supply Zone with RisiTimeframe: 30 Minutes (M30) Indicators: EMA 30 (Red): 1.41932 EMA 200 (Blue): 1.42196 🧠 Trade Setup: Potential Short Opportunity 📍 Current Price: 1.42252 📌 Key Levels: Entry Point (Supply Zone): 1.42582 Strong resistance zone, overlapping with EMA 200 and a previous consolidation zone. Price has entered a rising wedge pattern—a potential bearish reversal signal. Stop Loss: 1.42987 Placed just above the supply zone to avoid premature exit due to a false breakout. Take Profit (EA Target Point): 1.40379 Aligns with previous demand zone, solid support level. ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward Breakdown: Risk: ~335 pips Reward: ~2047 pips R:R Ratio: ~1:6 — Excellent risk-to-reward ratio for a swing short.
Short
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
1