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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD Is Very Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 1.438. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.450 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
USD/CAD Daily AnalysisPrice has been moving in a steady uptrend since the last quarter of 2024 with the big number 1.4600 next in sight. However, an observation to note is that that the MACD has recently made a lower high, contradicting what is happening with price. We call this divergence and it's a sign that in this case buyers may be losing their grip of the market. We could see either a short term or longer term sell off, but while price remains above the swing low of 1.42612, it would be advisable to remain patient and wait for a sell setup below this key price point.
by FusionMarkets
1
The Loonie's Fate: Can CAD Hold Against USD?The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been losing ground against the U.S. dollar (USD) for years, and this chart suggests that weakness could continue. Since 2015, every time CAD has tried to strengthen, it has failed to break below 1.20, showing a long-term downward trend. USD/CAD at 1.47: A Critical Turning Point Right now, the exchange rate is sitting at 1.4527, just below a key resistance level (1.47). Historically, this level has acted as a ceiling where CAD has struggled to hold its value. Two Possible Outcomes: 1. If CAD Holds Below 1.47 → Potential for Stabilization A rejection at 1.47 would mean CAD could regain some strength, at least in the short term. This could happen if the Bank of Canada holds rates steady while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals rate cuts. If USD weakens, CAD could stabilize around 1.39 or lower. 2. If USD/CAD Breaks Above 1.47 → CAD Could Sink Further A breakout above 1.47 would mean further CAD weakness, and we could see 1.60 or even 1.80 in the long run. This would be bad news for Canadian consumers, as inflation would likely surge. The Bank of Canada might be forced to act aggressively, keeping interest rates high for longer to stabilize the loonie. The Big Picture: Could We See 1.80? The chart suggests that if USD/CAD breaks out above 1.47, the next long-term move could reach 1.80, which would mean an additional 21% devaluation of CAD against USD. What That Would Mean for Canadians: More Expensive Imports: A weaker CAD means higher costs for goods priced in USD—electronics, vehicles, food, and even vacations in the U.S. Higher Inflation Risk: Imported goods would become more expensive, keeping inflation high and making it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates. Potential Rate Hikes: If CAD weakens too much, the BoC may need to raise interest rates again to stabilize the currency, which could keep borrowing costs high. What Canadians Should Watch Oil Prices: Canada is a commodity-based economy, and higher oil prices typically strengthen CAD (since Canada is a major oil exporter). If oil prices rise, CAD could get some strength back, slowing the decline. Bank of Canada vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: If the Bank of Canada keeps rates high while the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, CAD could strengthen. But if the BoC cuts rates too early, CAD could fall further. Global Market Sentiment: In a risk-off environment, investors flock to USD for safety, weakening CAD. If risk appetite returns, CAD could stabilize. What Canadians Can Do to Prepare If USD/CAD Breaks 1.47 and Moves Higher: Hedge Against a Weak CAD: Consider holding some USD-denominated assets (U.S. stocks, USD savings). Lock in Loan Rates Now: A weakening CAD could keep rates high longer—fixed-rate mortgages may offer stability. Invest in Inflation-Protected Assets: If CAD weakens, commodities, energy stocks, and foreign investments could help hedge against inflation. Buy USD for Future U.S. Expenses: If you travel to the U.S. frequently, it might make sense to buy USD now before CAD weakens further. If USD/CAD Gets Rejected at 1.47 and CAD Recovers: Monitor U.S. Rate Cuts: If the Fed cuts rates, USD may weaken, giving CAD a chance to rebound. Be Ready for Short-Term Relief, But Plan for Long-Term Weakness: Even if CAD strengthens in the short term, the long-term trend still suggests CAD is vulnerable. Final Thoughts: The Loonie’s Fate Rests on 1.47 Right now, CAD is at a make-or-break level. If 1.47 holds, CAD may see short-term strength. If 1.47 breaks, CAD could face a significant decline, making life more expensive for Canadians. With inflation, interest rates, and oil prices all playing a role, this is a crucial time to pay attention to macroeconomic trends, as the next move in USD/CAD will impact Canadians' cost of living, mortgages, and investments. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
by TechTrendLabs
USDCAD Shorting!Hey Traders!! Currently, the USDCAD pair is consolidating within a rectangular price range, with the lower boundary align closely with a short-term (1-hour) support level that has held firm through recent volatility. This consolidation suggests a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Given the recent bullish momentum defending this 1H support, there’s a strong likelihood the pair will retrace upward to retest the rectangle’s resistance zone. If this resistance holds—marked by signs of bearish rejection, the pair may reverse lower to target the broader 4-hour timeframe support structure, which aligns with the larger trend’s key demand area. To strengthen this thesis, traders should watch for: Confirmation Signals: A decisive close below the 1H support or failure to breach resistance could invalidate the setup. Momentum Alignment: Bearish divergence on the 4H chart or weakening buying volume during the retest. Risk Management: Positioning stops above the rectangle’s resistance (or a recent swing high) to guard against false breakdowns. Does this technical narrative resonate with your observations?
Short
by sirkamal
USDCAD Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on USDCAD and concluded the following: The market is trading on 1.4410 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.4370 Safe Stop Loss - 1.4437 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
USDCAD - Where will the Canadian dollar go?!The USDCAD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in a range. As long as the pair is in this range, the best thing to do is to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. A break of this range to the top or bottom will allow us to continue its rise and fall. The Bank of Canada has announced its decision to lower the policy interest rate to 3% after six consecutive reductions. Additionally, it confirmed the end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the gradual resumption of asset purchases starting in March. These measures reflect the central bank’s effort to stabilize the economy and support sustainable growth. The Bank of Canada emphasized three key points: • Inflation has approached the 2% target. After a period of high volatility, inflation expectations have moderated, and price pressures—except in the housing sector—have eased. • Lower interest rates have increased household spending power and gradually boosted economic activity, particularly in the housing sector and durable goods purchases such as automobiles. • New U.S. trade policies remain a significant risk to Canada’s economy. Any escalation in trade tensions could negatively impact economic growth. One of the first sectors to benefit from the rate cut is the housing market.Lower borrowing costs are expected to attract new buyers; however, the central bank anticipates a more balanced increase in housing prices over time. The recent slowdown in construction activity and declining rental prices indicate that investment appeal in this sector has somewhat diminished. For investors and entrepreneurs, the lower interest rates present an opportunity to secure cheaper financing and expand their businesses. Sectors such as startups, technology, and export-driven manufacturing are expected to gain the most from this policy. With inflation stabilizing around 2% and the economy recovering, the Bank of Canada sees no immediate need for further rate cuts. However, potential economic disruptions from U.S. trade policies could alter this outlook. Reports suggest that if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports, the Canadian government plans to implement financial aid measures similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these programs require parliamentary approval, and given that the Liberal government lacks a parliamentary majority, there is no guarantee they will pass. All opposition parties have expressed their intent to oust the current government, meaning any economic stimulus package would require support from the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP has backed the Liberal government over the past three years. The Canadian Parliament is currently adjourned until March 24, allowing the Liberal Party to select a new leader to replace Justin Trudeau, with Mark Carney as a likely successor. However, an early leadership decision may occur before the scheduled date. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that household debt is not a sustainable driver of consumption growth. He expressed greater concern about declining business investment due to tariff threats, arguing that such policies could have a more significant impact on the Canadian dollar than interest rate differentials. He also reaffirmed that the Bank of Canada believes inflation has been successfully contained. The central bank aims to ensure that any CPI increases resulting from tariffs remain temporary and that the consequences of trade policies are managed to minimize sudden economic disruptions.
by Ali_PSND
USD/CAD Chart Analysis Following Bank of Canada’s Rate CutUSD/CAD Chart Analysis Following Bank of Canada’s Rate Cut Unlike the Federal Reserve, which opted to leave its monetary policy unchanged, the Bank of Canada cut its interest rate yesterday. According to Forex Factory, as expected by analysts, the Overnight Rate was lowered by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3.00%. According to Reuters: → The Bank of Canada reduced interest rates to support the economy ahead of anticipated US trade tariffs. → This weakened the Canadian dollar, as the gap between Canadian and US bond yields widened. → Market participants estimate a 41% probability that the Bank of Canada will cut rates again in March. → The depreciation of the Canadian dollar is also influenced by oil prices (one of Canada’s key export commodities), which have fallen by over 8% since their mid-January peak. Technical analysis of the USD/CAD chart indicates that the Canadian dollar’s exchange rate against the US dollar is forming a “Megaphone” pattern, with price action demonstrating the presence of selling pressure. On 21 January, sellers sharply pushed the price down from the psychological level of 1.4500, and yesterday, the price made a bearish reversal from 1.4450. There is a possibility that seller activity could drive USD/CAD lower towards a key trendline (marked in grey) that has been forming since the second half of 2024. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USD/CAD levels heading into US GDPThe strong rally from the October low has entered a sideways range, and prices have seen failed attempts to break above a prior double-top high ~1.4468. A bearish pinbar also formed yesterday beneath the double top and the daily RSI (2) is also near the overbought zone. The 4-hour chart shows a 2-bar bearish reversal at the range highs, and until we see a breakout accompanied with a worthy headline, the bias is to fade into moves below 1.4470 with for some mean reversion back towards the 2020 weekly-close high at 1.4332 Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Short
by CityIndex
US Dollar demand persists....for now | FX ResearchUS durable goods and consumer confidence data came in softer on Tuesday but did nothing to prevent the US dollar from rallying. In the end, everything has come down to tariff talk out of the US government, and with the Trump Administration continuing to talk tough on tariffs, the US dollar is the natural play. It is also worth noting that many market participants were quick to highlight a solid US durable goods reading when the volatile transportation components were stripped out. Moving on, there have been concerns about the German growth outlook, the Bank of Canada announced a new repo facility, the BOJ minutes showed more room for additional rate hikes, and Aussie inflation data came out on the softer side. Looking at the calendar for the remainder of the day, key standouts include German consumer confidence, the US Advanced Goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, a BOE Bailey speech, the Bank of Canada policy decision, and the FOMC decision late in the day. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets