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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD Drops to 1.3600 Support LevelUSD/CAD Drops to 1.3600 Support Level The USD/CAD chart shows the Canadian dollar strengthening against the USD to levels last seen at the end of July. On one hand, the US dollar is weakened by expectations of an inevitable rate cut. On the other, the Canadian dollar gained strength after yesterday’s inflation data: → Although the initial reaction pushed USD/CAD up to 1.364, → Today, the market seems to have reassessed the impact, with the pair falling to yesterday's low, indicating continued bearish dominance. Meanwhile, technical analysis of the USD/CAD chart reveals that the pair has dropped to the 1.3600 support level, which has been a key level for bulls since May. This decline has been quite sharp, with a drop of over 2.2% from the 6th August high. Bears managed to break the trendline (shown in yellow) and push the RSI from the overbought zone close to the oversold zone within two weeks. Notably, before the drop, the pair broke the 1.385 support level, but it turned out to be a false breakout. The 6th August candle had a long upper shadow, suggesting many traders were caught off guard. If the bullish breakout was a false move, could a genuine breakout of the 1.3600-1.3850 range happen to the downside? The future direction of USD/CAD will largely depend on the market’s reaction to today’s FOMC news, scheduled for release at 21:00 GMT+3. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USD/CAD H4 | Potential bearish breakoutUSD/CAD is falling towards a potential breakout level and could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 1.3602 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 1.3657 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 1.3560 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USDCAD Bullish ScenarioToday, we will analyze USDCAD Specific explanations are provided for each zone and movement on the chart. If you have any opinions, feel free to share them in the comments section. Please note that this analysis is not intended as financial advice. Each individual should assume responsibility for their own trades. The purpose of this post is to provide ideas and inspiration, encouraging readers to view the chart from different perspectives. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Long
by Biaxar
Canadian dollar shrugs as Can. CPI drops to 3-year lowThe Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday after posting gains over the past two days. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3636 at the time of writing. Canada’s headline CPI rose to 2.5% year-on-year in July, down from 2.7% in June and matching the market estimate. This marked the lowest annual inflation level since March 2021. Monthly, inflation rose to 0.4% in July following a decline in June of -0.1% and in line with the market estimate. The jump in the monthly report was driven by higher gasoline prices. Core CPI, which is more closely monitored by the Bank of Canada, also eased. The average of two of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) core measures of inflation eased slightly to 2.55% year-on-year in July, compared to 2.7% in June. The decline in inflation is an encouraging sign for the BoC, which would like to continue trimming interest rates as the economy cools and also provide relief to homeowners who are struggling with high rates. The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and is mindful that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to lower rates, perhaps by a half-point. This means that BoC policy makers don’t have to worry that another rate cut would hurt the Canadian dollar if the Fed follows suit with its own rate cut. The Federal Reserve will almost certainly lower rates at the September meeting, with uncertainty as to the size of the expected reduction. The probability of a 25-basis point cut stands at 75% and a 50 bps cut at 25%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. On Friday, Jerome Powell will address the Jackson Hole Symposium and could signal what the Fed has in store for next month’s meeting. USD/CAD tested support at 1.3614 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.3594 There is resistance at 1.3650 and 1.3670
by OANDA
1:10 RISK TO REWARD SELL SETUP FOR USDCADCore Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts Here’s a detailed breakdown of the analysis based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology: 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: 15M Swing Structure: The structure is currently bearish, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming the downtrend. The price has mitigated Inducement and is now undergoing a corrective swing move. Only the extreme Sell Order Block (SOB) is identified as the Point of Interest (POI) in the Premier zone, making this area highly attractive for sellers. This area has also served as a Resistance or Demand zone for sellers in the past, adding to its significance. Pattern: 🟢 Chart Patterns: To be assessed once the price reaches the POI. 🟢 Candle Patterns: Will be updated upon the price reaching the POI. Volume: 🟢 Significant volume is observed in the selling areas, indicating strong selling interest. Momentum RSI: 🟢 The RSI is in the super-sell zone, indicating strong bearish momentum. Although there is an attempt at a range shift, it’s not confirmed yet, and the bearish sentiment still dominates. Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 The volatile move is about to conclude, and the market may require some time to cool down before the next significant movement. Strength ADX: The ADX indicates that sellers are firmly in control, supporting the bearish outlook. Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 Stars) Probability: 60% The setup shows a moderate-to-high probability, but confirmation from patterns and additional indicators could increase this further. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15M ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish ☑️ POI: Extreme unmitigated OB 💡 Decision: Sell Limit 🚀 Entry: 1.3678 ✋ Stop loss: 1.3686 🎯 Take profit: 1.3602 😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 10 RR 🕛 Expected Duration: 2 Days SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a strong selling opportunity on the 15-minute timeframe, with a sell limit entry at 1.3678. The stop loss is tightly set at 1.3686, providing a high risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1, with a take-profit target at 1.3602. This setup is favored by the current bearish market structure and the significant volume observed in selling zones. While the momentum is still bearish, the upcoming price action near the POI will be crucial in confirming this trade's potential. Monitoring the formation of chart and candle patterns at the POI will be essential for executing this setup effectively.
Short
by Optimum369