USDCAD Short Sell OpportunityUSDCAD is following a decending pattern and there is an opportunity to short sell with TP & SL targets on the decending parallel channel supports & resistances.
USDCAD trade ideas
USD/CAD: The Breakout Beast Ready to Crush 1.42 Ladies and gentlemen, meet the USD/CAD – your favorite currency pair's favorite currency pair. 🎯📈"
The Head and Shoulders Gym Session:
Classic Head and Shoulders pattern in play here. Left shoulder? 💪 Bulging. Head? 🧠 Standing tall. Right shoulder? 🤷♂️ Trying to keep up, but hey, it tried.
That breakout above the neckline? 🔥 The USD is basically yelling, “I’m not just a pretty chart; I’m a trendsetter. 🚀”
Support and Resistance – The Classic Frenemies:
The 1.40 level is the VIP rope 🪩 – it’s been tough to get past, but the USD is muscling through. 💥
If this party keeps going, the next stop is 1.42 🏔️, where resistance might throw another temper tantrum. 😅
RSI – Overachieving Much?
RSI above 70? 😎 This pair is flexing harder than a bodybuilder on stage. 💪 But be warned: markets hate staying in extremes too long. 📉 A pullback could bring it back to Earth. 🌍
Trendline Up, Confidence Up:
That dotted upward-sloping trendline? ✨ It’s like a personal trainer yelling, “Keep pushing higher! 🏋️♀️” Recent movements suggest USD/CAD is feeling the hype. 🔝
🎲 Prediction Time:
If 1.40 holds: fireworks to 1.42 and beyond. 🎇 Bulls are partying hard 🐂💃, and the bears? They’re packing for a vacation. 🐻✈️
But if it falters? 😬 Back to the grind below, maybe chilling at 1.38 like it’s Netflix and consolidation time. 📺📉
This chart is screaming bullish vibes louder than a Friday night karaoke session. 🎤🎶 But remember, overconfidence kills trends faster than a bad DJ clears a dance floor. 🛑 Let’s see if the USD keeps climbing or hits gravity hard.
“USD/CAD, are you ready to go the distance, or will gravity call you back? 🚀🌍”
USDCAD Bullish Trend: Key Level to Watch for Buy OpportunityOANDA:USDCAD is currently in a bullish trend.
For it to continue moving higher, it must hold the Monday low, which will create a swing failure. Once it starts holding this level as support, I’ll be looking to buy where the arrow is marked.
That arrow is my go-to signal to enter the trade. If the price breaks below the Monday low, I’ll close the position manually.
Stay tuned for more updates and FOLLOW ME for the next moves!
Shorting USDCAD following Canadian CPI dataThe Canadian CPI data came in higher than expected that dashing hopes of another large rate cut at the next meeting of the BoC. Coupling this with rising geopolitical tensions that have lead to weakness in the USD saw a fall of 0.4% in the USDCAD in yesterday's trading session. Overnight Canadian yields have increased while US yields fell.
The currency pair closed yesterday below 50% fib retracement and the rising trend established from September. The conditions appear to support a continued fall in the USDCAD.
I've put a sell on USDCAD with the following TPs
Entry 1.3952
TP1 - 1.3927
TP2 - 1.3882
TP3 - 1.3842
TP4 - 1.3822
SL - 1.4034
TP1 is set at the 62% FIB retracement level, the plan is to move SL to entry once this TP is hit.
Canadian CPI Inflation Accelerates in OctoberCanadian CPI Inflation Accelerates in October; Boc Still Likely to Cut Rates
Policymakers ‘may’ think twice about reducing the overnight rate by another 50 basis points (bps) next month following inflation accelerating to the upside. I emphasise the word ‘may’ here.
According to the October CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index) released by Statistics Canada, headline YY (Year on Year) CPI inflation increased to 2.0%. This marked its first acceleration in five months, rising from 1.6% in September (north of economists’ expectations of 1.9%) and immediately sent the Canadian dollar (CAD) northbound.
The release noted that gasoline prices fell less last month (4.0%), following September’s fall of 10.7%, ultimately bolstering headline inflation. In addition to this, the report also showed that shelter prices eased further, rising 4.8% from 5.0% in September. However, food (purchased from stores) showed prices accelerated by 2.7% from September’s reading of 2.4%.
BoC Eyeing a 50 Basis Point Cut?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has reduced its overnight rate by 125 basis bps since June, and along with the previous meeting’s bumper 50 bp cut, the central bank’s Governor, Tiff Macklem, left the door wide ajar for further policy easing.
Despite higher-than-expected inflation, price pressures remain around the BoC’s 2.0% mid-point inflation band of 1-3%. And we must remember that while it does show inflation increased, the rise in prices is largely in line with what the BoC expected according to their latest forecasts: ‘The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out’. This may explain the Canadian dollar’s swift correction in the CAD and the absence of follow-through after the release.
Markets are still pricing in around 32 bps of easing for the BoC’s next policy decision – largely unchanged compared to before the release of inflation numbers. So, in my opinion, with the economy still weak, a loose labour market and inflation at target, the BoC cutting rates by another 50 bps remains a possibility next month.
BoC’s Preferred Measures Increase
Between September and October, inflation also increased to 0.4%, bettering the market’s median estimate for a 0.3% rise and above the previous 0.4% decline. The BoC’s preferred measures of inflation also accelerated to the upside. The CPI Median rose 2.5% from 2.3% in September (consensus: 2.4%), while the CPI Trim measure rose 2.6% from 2.4% in September (consensus: 2.4%). Therefore, the average pace of inflation between these two measures is 2.55%, up from 2.35% in September. Additionally, the CPI Common measure was higher at 2.2%, up from 2.1% in September.
Where Does This Leave the USD/CAD?
With oil prices lower and positioning for the CAD also low (according to CFTC data), as well as the central bank expected to continue easing policy and the Fed’s moderately hawkish commentary, the recent upside in USD/CAD should not be a surprise.
However, while the USD/CAD is biased to the upside and has been for some time now, a correction is in play, and the recent inflation numbers added to the possibility of further downside. Technically, support on the weekly timeframe from C$1.3945 and C$1.3843 and two neighbouring support levels on the daily timeframe (C$1.3866 and C$1.3877) could be worth noting and possibly lend a floor for buyers to work with should the unit reach this far south.
Shorter-term flow shows H1 price hovering just ahead of support from C$1.3959, which happens to be a level that converges with a reasonably long-term trendline support, extended from the low of C$1.3472, and a 50% retracement ratio coming in from C$1.3960. What’s also technically appealing for C$1.3959 support is the weekly support coinciding closely with the level at C$1.3945. As a result, this area on the charts could have USD/CAD buyers return to the fold if tested.
Written by FP Markets market analyst Aaron Hill.
Bullish on USDCADprice has reacted to the 4 hourly Order Block. After the news release on CAD we expect to see a buy program start to unfold since news was a catalyst in form the manipulation during the Accumulation manipulation Distribution cycle @MaruTradesIcyTea
4-hr USD/CAD: Pullback Opens The Door For New BuyersThe USD/CAD pair has demonstrated a strong bullish trend, gaining nearly 300 pips since the start of the month. Despite occasional pullbacks and periods of consolidation, the pair's upward momentum remains robust, supported by the formation of a Golden Cross, where the 20-day moving average (MA) rises above the 60-day MA. This technical signal, often viewed as a historical indicator of continued buying potential, suggests further upside in the broader trend.
From a risk-to-reward standpoint, however, buyers may benefit from waiting for a deeper correction to optimize entry points. Recently, the pair dipped to a support level corresponding to the 38% Fibonacci retracement, but trading volume has not yet been sufficient to reignite a strong bullish rally.
Before the upward trend resumes, a further correction could retest the 1.3963 area, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level may provide a more favorable entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the prevailing uptrend. With the broader trend still intact, such a pullback could offer an advantageous setup for buyers seeking to join the momentum.
USD CAD Live AnalysisThe USDCAD price traded with clear negativity yesterday to break the minor support 1.4025$ and settle below it, to head towards potential test to the bullish channel’s support line around 1.3960$, making the bearish bias expected in the upcoming sessions, noting that this decline is temporary, waiting to resume the main bullish trend again after testing the mentioned support.
On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.4025$ will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish wave again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.3960$ support and 1.4080$ resistance
Trend forecast: Bearish temporarily
USD/CADHello traders, the situation of the market is very interesting and beautiful, I expect the market to fall in a short time, of course, when it gives approval to enter our zone, but we can see that the market is in a very large flow and a buy trend
USDCAD We hit our First POI point. We needed to wait to observe the shift in the market structure with the bullish bias.
This is confirmed by the change of the market direction after breaking the last Lower High to create a new High.
On this direction bias, we notice that there are new breaks of structure that were caused by a consolidation or correction that pushed to break the previous high on that developing bullish leg, the correction was not retested, or mitigated.
Right here around this zone, we are starting to see the price coming back,
use your learnt entry models in the lower time frame structures to facilitate a roper entry.
GOOD LUCK
USDCAD sell limitUSDCAD formed Double Top with RSI divergence. Now after breaking its neck line and previous HL, It made new LL. After retracement at Fib Level 0.618 we will place sell limit entry
Break outThis broke out strongly and I think it is going to go up soon, after a pull back of course...
USD/CAD H1 | Potential bounce off overlap supportUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.4070 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.4020 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 1.4142 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level.
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30-mins USD/CAD: Further Drop Seems Possible
In recent days, USD/CAD has exhibited strong bearish momentum, reflecting a continuation of its downward trend. This momentum is further supported by the formation of a classic Death Cross, where the 20 MA crosses below the 60 MA —a widely recognized sell signal.
Following the sustained slide, the pair experienced a pullback, briefly retesting the area around 1.3980, which aligns with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. This move suggests the possibility of short-term consolidation as market participants assess the next direction. If buyer activity increases, a further test of higher levels near 1.3985—corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—could occur.
However, should USD/CAD fail to sustain values above this critical 50% Fib level, sellers may seize the opportunity to enter positions, reinforcing the broader bearish trend. This could set the stage for another move lower, as traders align with the prevailing downward momentum and capitalize on continued selling pressure.
usdcadUSDCAD ( U.S Dollar / Canadian Dollar )
EXP FIAT as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Order Block
Sell OpportunityUSD/CAD Short Signal
Entry Price: 1.4035
Stop Loss: 1.40716
Take Profit: 1.38148
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1.59
Time Frame: 4H
Signal Analysis:
The price has reached a potential resistance area, with a visible bearish volume profile zone above. Momentum indicators show signs of potential weakness, suggesting a pullback or reversal in the USD/CAD pair.
Recommendation:
Consider entering a short position at the specified entry price, with a stop loss at 1.40716 and a target of 1.38148. Monitor any changes in volume and volatility, as they may affect the trade outcome.
USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions.
Monetary Policy in Canada
• Interest Rate Cuts:
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%).
Oil Developments in the U.S.
• Crude Oil Production:
U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels).
• Crude Oil Prices:
The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59).
The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections.
Oil Demand:
• U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts.
OPEC and Production Adjustments:
• Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts:
OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million).
• Increased OPEC Production:
OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya.
Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies
• Iran’s Response to Sanctions:
Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration.
• Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.:
Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks.
Developments in Lebanon and Israel
• Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
USDCAD buy ideaoverall trend is going up but before we go up we must go down first, or it will leave us, but entering right now is not a bright idea, better to wait for it to reach the entry zone. be safe
A weekly breakout above 1.40000 in USDCAD is massive! I talk about the USDCAD and the massive breakout above 1.40000, and how traders are waiting till the end of the week for confirmation of the breakout. Also, I discuss the risks to North American currencies and the new incoming Trump administration and how leveraged money and retail traders are positioned near term.
