Get started

U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDCAD trade ideas

USDCADKey Reasons for CAD Strengthening Today Market-Wide US Dollar Weakness The CAD gained sharply against the USD, rising about 1% and reaching seven-month highs, largely driven by broad US dollar weakness rather than strong Canadian data alone. Renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump against the EU and tech companies fueled risk-off sentiment, weakening the USD and benefiting the CAD as a commodity-linked currency. Mid-Tier Canadian Economic Data and Oil Prices Although Canadian economic data this week has been mostly mid-tier and not spectacular, the market focused on stable fundamentals like retail sales and trade balance, which support the currency. Canada’s oil prices, a major export driver, remain supportive, helping underpin the CAD’s value. Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations Canada’s inflation remains somewhat elevated but controlled, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) expected to maintain relatively higher interest rates compared to other economies. This attracts capital inflows and supports the CAD. The BoC’s stance contrasts with expectations of US Federal Reserve easing, contributing to the interest rate differential favoring the CAD. Improved Trade Outlook and Economic Resilience Talks between US and Canadian officials have eased some trade uncertainties, reducing risks to Canadian exports. Canada’s trade deficit narrowed recently, and GDP growth showed resilience in key sectors, supporting market confidence in the CAD. Risk-On Sentiment and Global Capital Flows Investors’ risk appetite improved amid easing fears of a US recession and trade war escalation, leading to increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the CAD. Risk-On Market Sentiment Encourages investment in CAD USD and CAD Interest Rate Differential and 10-Year Bond Prices (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential The US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.54% (recent 2025 data). The Canadian 10-year Government Bond yield is slightly lower, around 3.50% to 3.60% (typical range in early 2025). This creates an interest rate differential of roughly 0.9% to 1.0% in favor of the US. Impact of Interest Rate Differential The widening interest rate gap, with US yields higher than Canadian yields by about 1 percentage point, has contributed to a modest depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD) since late 2024. Investors find US assets more attractive due to higher yields, leading to capital flows into USD and downward pressure on CAD. The Bank of Canada’s expected policy rate is around 2.5% by end-2025, while the US Federal Reserve’s expected rate is higher near 3.75–4.0%, reinforcing the yield advantage for USD assets. 10-Year Bond Prices Bond prices move inversely to yields. With US 10-year yields higher, US bond prices have declined relative to Canadian bonds. The higher US yields reflect tighter monetary policy and stronger economic outlook compared to Canada, where monetary policy is expected to be more accommodative. This divergence in bond prices and yields supports the USD’s relative strength versus CAD USD/CAD Exchange Rate and Market Sentiment USD/CAD has been trading in a broad range in 2025, with forecasts varying between 1.25 and 1.45 for the year. The Canadian dollar is considered overvalued by about 9 cents relative to the USD, according to some models. Market analysts expect the USD to maintain moderate strength against CAD due to the interest rate differential and divergent monetary policies. Summary Table Metric USD CAD 10-Year Bond Yield (%) ~4.54% ~3.50–3.60% Interest Rate Differential +0.9% to 1.0% (USD over CAD) — Bond Price Trend Lower (due to higher yield) Higher (due to lower yield) Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) Stronger USD Weaker CAD Conclusion Today’s CAD strength was largely driven by broad US dollar weakness amid renewed trade tensions and tariff threats, combined with stable Canadian economic fundamentals and supportive oil prices. While Canadian data was not overwhelmingly strong, it was sufficient to maintain investor confidence, especially against a weakening USD, resulting in a notable rally in the Canadian dollar. The higher US 10-year bond yields relative to Canada’s have contributed to a significant interest rate differential (~1%), favoring USD assets. This has led to USD strength against CAD and lower US bond prices compared to Canadian bonds. The ongoing divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada underpins this trend, influencing currency flows and bond market dynamics in 2025.
by Shavyfxhub
USDCAD: 1D Death Cross signals more selling.USDCAD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.307, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 41.498) as it is having one of the strongest red 1D candles of 2025, which is dominated by a Channel Down pattern. The market formed today a 1D Death Cross and since the new bearish wave started on a 1D MA200 rejection, we expect the selling to continue despite the oversold technical condition. Short and aim for a new -3.80% decline TP = 1.35000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
USD/CAD 1.4000 Rejection -> 2025 LowsUSD-weakness was back in a big way this week and even as other pairs had yielded to the USD-breakout into last Monday, with fresh lows in EUR/USD and fresh highs in USD/JPY - USD/CAD retained its bearish structure with a hold of resistance right at the 1.4000 level. Price is now 250ish pips lower as sellers have went back to work and there's potential for breakdown scenarios given this hold near support following a pullback to the big figure. For those looking to work with pullbacks, there's now resistance potential at prior swing lows 1.3814 and then 1.3846, and USD/CAD remains one of the more attractive venues for a continuation of Dollar weakness as we move towards the final week of May trade. - js
by FOREXcom
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025 - USDCAD reversed from strong resistance area - Likely to fall to support level 1.3755 USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance area between the round resistance level 1.4000 intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from March. The downward reversal from this resistance area started the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2). USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3755 (the former low from the start of May and the target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2)).
Short
by FxProGlobal
USDCAD Is Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD. Time Frame: 10h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.379. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.387 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
USD/CAD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3792 2nd Support – 1.3760 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
28
USDCAD Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, USDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.3814 pivot level. Bias - Bullish My Stop Loss - 1.3784 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.3877 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
PERHAPS... USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D23 Y25PERHAPS... A REVERSAL BACK TO THE HTF 50EMA's USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D23 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order Block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅15' order block identified ✅Weekly 50 EMA ✅Daily 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly LowsUSD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly Lows The USD/CAD chart is currently showing clear signs of a bearish trend, characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows (A→B→C→D→E→F→G). This week’s decline suggests the downward structure may continue to develop, putting the current yearly low around the 1.3770 level at risk. Why Is USD/CAD Falling? On one hand, the US dollar remains under pressure: → Following last week’s downgrade of US debt ratings by Moody’s, investor attention has shifted to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden. → A tax bill backed by Donald Trump — recently passed in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives — could add trillions more to the national debt. Market participants may be increasingly concerned about the US’s fiscal outlook, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has strengthened this week relative to other major currencies. Tuesday’s CPI figures from Canada came in above analysts’ expectations and may be seen as a sign that the inflation surge could delay any potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. USD/CAD Technical Analysis In early May, we outlined a descending channel on the USD/CAD chart — a structure that remains relevant today. The current price is hovering near the channel’s median line, which could indicate a temporary balance between supply and demand. However, with Canadian retail sales data due at 15:30 GMT+3 today, the risk of increased volatility remains high. A new weekly low cannot be ruled out. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDCAD Tests Key Trendline and Support ZoneUSDCAD has dropped below the 1.40 level after previously testing the 1.47 resistance during peak tariff fears. With the dollar index weakening and trade-related concerns easing, USDCAD has pulled back to a key trendline on the daily timeframe. Since 2015, USDCAD has traded within a broad range between 1.20 and 1.47. After testing the 1.20 support in mid-2021, the pair entered a steady uptrend, which is now being tested once again. In addition to the rising trendline, there is also a horizontal support zone at 1.37–1.3880—previously a key resistance area during the 2023–2025 period. This convergence of trendline and horizontal support could provide strong support. As long as the trendline holds, this test may offer a medium-term buying opportunity with a well-defined support area. Potential upside targets include 1.4020 and 1.4175, with a possible medium-term push back toward 1.47 if broader conditions align.
Long
by ftdsystem
USDCAD RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD!USDCAD 22/05 – KEY RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD! 🌐 MACRO BACKDROP: Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales have come in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish consumer demand and reducing the probability of near-term rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the USD is stabilizing, supported by steady U.S. Treasury yields after the Fed reaffirmed its “higher for longer” stance. Oil prices, a major driver of the Canadian Dollar, have shown no significant breakout, further weakening CAD’s bullish momentum. 🔍 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW (H1–H4 Chart): After hitting a key swing low at 1.3820, USDCAD is now retracing towards the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (1.3889 – 1.3913), which also aligns with: The 200 EMA resistance (red line) Previous structure rejection zone ➡️ This area is critical – it could act as a trap zone before price resumes downward or breaks to confirm a short-term bullish reversal. 📈 TRADE SETUPS: 🔻 SELL SETUP (HIGH PROBABILITY IF PRICE FAILS AT RESISTANCE): Entry: 1.3900 – 1.3913 Stop Loss: 1.3930 Take Profit Targets: 1.3884 → 1.3859 → 1.3847 → 1.3820 🔹 BUY SETUP (IF PRICE HOLDS ABOVE THE BASE ZONE): Entry: 1.3820 – 1.3823 Stop Loss: 1.3805 Take Profit Targets: 1.3847 → 1.3880 → 1.3913 ⚠️ STRATEGY NOTES: Be cautious during the New York session, as potential comments from Fed officials or crude oil updates could spike volatility. This is a textbook case of “reaction vs. continuation” at a Fibo cluster – stick to confirmed candlestick signals to avoid false breakouts. 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: USDCAD is in a corrective rally after an extended decline. The 1.3913 zone is a key decision point. Sellers should watch for signs of exhaustion, while buyers can target short-term retracements if support holds at 1.3820.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
4
USDCAD TechnicalsThe pair attempting a recovery following a sharp bearish decline. After a significant selloff, price found strong support in the 1.38300–1.38440 zone, where multiple rejections indicate the presence of demand. This area has now acted as a base for a bullish reaction, confirmed by increasing bullish volume on the most recent candles. The recovery is now pushing back toward a previously broken structure zone around 1.38770–1.38800, which is expected to act as resistance. This is a critical level to watch, as it previously marked a breakdown point. If price manages to push above and hold, it could signal a reversal or at least a corrective rally within the broader downtrend. Momentum indicators are showing early signs of recovery. The RSI has climbed to around 46, rebounding from a low and crossing its moving average. While it remains below the neutral 50 level—still slightly favoring sellers—the upward momentum is strengthening. This supports the current short-term bullish movement, especially if price remains above the 1.3840 handle. The short-term trend is shifting toward bullish, supported by a potential higher low structure forming after the recent dip. A clean break and hold above 1.3880 could open the door for a move toward the psychological round number at 1.3900 and potentially higher toward 1.3920–1.3940. However, if the price fails to hold above 1.3840 and breaks back into the support box with bearish volume, the recovery thesis would be invalidated, suggesting a potential revisit of the 1.3820 level and lower. In summary, the chart suggests a cautious bullish bias with near-term upside potential, contingent on maintaining support above the demand zone and breaking through the resistance around 1.3880 with momentum.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx
USD/CAD: A 4H Technical and Fundamental AnalysisUSD/CAD: A 4H Technical and Fundamental Analysis Technical Insight: The USD has recently weakened, reaching a two-week low against the CAD—a move driven largely by mounting U.S. fiscal concerns. On the USD/CAD 4-hour time frame, we observed a minor key resistance at 1.3900 and support at 1.3850, the latter of which has already been broken. Following the breakout, price has entered a post-breakout accumulation phase—a typical institutional behavior where orders are layered before a decisive move. Currently, price appears to be hunting for liquidity—a common market dynamic where early breakout traders are flushed out. There are two zones of interest: 1️⃣ First liquidity pool just above the broken support 2️⃣ Final liquidity pool above key resistance at 1.3900 Should price trigger the second zone, it could present a more strategic area for market participants to reassess positioning based on a favorable risk-reward structure. 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): The area of interest lies around 1.38830, just below the key resistance and close to the potential liquidity sweep zone. This zone becomes relevant if price hunts the liquidity above the recent high (1.3900) and shows signs of rejection or exhaustion. 🛡 Risk Perspective (Stop-Loss Idea): From a risk management viewpoint, institutional traders would likely place invalidation levels just above 1.39180, which sits beyond the anticipated liquidity sweep and is considered the upper bound of the stop hunt zone. 🎯 Profit Perspective (Target Idea): A reasonable profit zone, based on structure, could be placed near the next minor support around 1.38180, where price last found buying interest prior to the breakout. Fundamental Overview: Credit Downgrade: Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, raising alarm over rising national debt and fiscal indiscipline. Treasury Weakness: A poorly received 20-year Treasury auction signals waning investor confidence, pushing yields higher. Shift in Sentiment: As uncertainty grows, capital is flowing into alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold, both hitting fresh highs—an indication of reduced trust in the dollar’s safe-haven status. On the flip side, the Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground: 📈 Why the Loonie Is Rising: Political Stability: With Mark Carney stepping in post-Trudeau, investor confidence has strengthened amid expectations of prudent fiscal management. Steady Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain current interest rates, reinforcing CAD's appeal. Stronger Trade Outlook: Ongoing efforts to diversify trade and resolve disputes have contributed to CAD resilience. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.
Short
by RebornFXTrader