USD/CAD Rejected at Key Resistance The Canadian Dollar is attempting to mount a counter-offensive this week with USD/CAD trying to snap a two-week rally. A reversal off technical resistance is now approaching initial support and the first test for the US Dollar bulls.
Initial weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the recent advance at 1.3852 and is backed by key support at 1.3729/94- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 advance and the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / weekly close below needed to invalidate the 2021 uptrend / suggest a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives seen at 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement near 1.3504/23.
Weekly resistance stands at 1.3965/97- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. A break above this key pivot zone exposes confluent resistance at the 38.2% retracement / February lows at 1.4149/51- note that basic channel resistance converges on this zone over the next few days and a topside breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger recovery is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the high-week reversal close at 1.4292 and the 2025 yearly open at 1.4383.
Bottom line : The USD/CAD recovery has responded to initial resistance around the yearly moving average. The immediate focus is on this pullback with initial support now in view. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the 2022 trendline (red) IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3997 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
-MB
USDCAD trade ideas
Macro Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD – Quarterly ChartLet’s take a look at the USD/CAD quarterly (3-Month) chart.
Things are looking quite bearish for the coming months as price begins to get squeezed inside the ascending triangle.
The bulls have tried multiple times breaking and clearing the 1.4500 price zone but has been met with a strong resistance each time. Considering that the MACD and RSI are diverging to the downside along with this triple resistance, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the USD/CAD trading lower towards 1.3000 in the coming quarters.
Considering this is a long term outlook, price can still fluctuate between 1.3500 and 1.4000ish but based on the current set-up, as of now, the view remains bearish especially with the U.S. Dollar under pressure across the board.
A clear break & close above 1.4500 invalidates this view.
Good Luck & Trade Safe
WHO LOVES A HPT? USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D21 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D21 Y25
WHO LOVES A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE ? THIS HAS A LOT OF CONFLUENCES GOING FOR IT FROM THE HIGHS!
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅15' order block identified
✅Weekly 50 EMA
✅Daily 50 EMA
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USDCAD Consolidation Within Bullish Flag – Targets 1.4130USDCAD is consolidating inside a descending flag structure following a strong impulsive rally earlier in May. The current pullback is orderly and corrective, indicating potential for continuation higher. If price breaks above 1.3960, this flag breakout could extend toward 1.4130 and possibly 1.4225. With CAD weakening on soft oil prices and USD regaining strength from yield-driven flows, the bias remains bullish while price stays above 1.3870.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Bullish flag forming after a strong rally
Support Zone: 1.3870–1.3900 → base of flag
Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.3960–1.3980 → upper flag line
Structure:
Higher lows holding firm
Fib confluence near 1.3933 (23.6% retracement)
Target Levels:
1.4130 – 50% fib level + previous structure resistance
1.4225 – 61.8% fib zone from March–April high
📈 Bias: Bullish continuation on breakout
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD)
Supported by:
Higher bond yields
Fed expected to hold rates higher for longer
Safe-haven inflows post-Moody’s downgrade fading
USD Index recovering broadly across majors
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Oil prices softening due to global demand concerns (China slowdown, US inventories)
BoC likely done hiking — no fresh bullish catalysts
CAD correlation with crude oil adds downside risk if energy markets weaken further
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Break and close above 1.3960
Stop Loss: Below 1.3870 (flag support zone)
Targets:
TP1: 1.4130 (structure resistance + fib level)
TP2: 1.4225 (swing high + golden ratio)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch
If USD sentiment shifts (e.g., dovish Fed speaker) → breakout may fail
Crude oil rebound would support CAD and cap USD/CAD upside
False breakouts common near 1.3960 — wait for confirmation (strong candle close)
🧭 Conclusion
USD/CAD remains in a bullish consolidation phase with a clear continuation setup. A break above 1.3960 would confirm a flag breakout targeting 1.4130 and 1.4225. With the macro backdrop favoring the USD and energy-linked CAD weakening, this setup offers clean structure and potential for follow-through.
USDCAD BULLISH FOR 54PIPUSDCAD Bullish Forecast (54 Pips)
Current Price: Check live price (e.g., ~1.3650).
Target: 1.3704 (+54 pips from entry).
Stop Loss (SL): Below support (e.g., ~1.3620, 30-pip risk).
Key Levels:
Support: 1.3630–1.3620 (pullback zone).
Resistance: 1.3700 (psychological level), then 1.3750.
Bullish Drivers:
USD Strength: If Fed signals hawkish policy or risk-off mood lifts USD.
Oil Price Drop: Weak crude oil (CAD negative) could boost USDCAD.
Technical Breakout: Rising from a trendline or moving average (e.g., 50 EMA).
Trade Plan:
Entry: On pullback to 1.3630–1.3640 or breakout above 1.3670.
Exit: Take profit at 1.3704 (scaled exits optional).
Risk Management: 1:2 R/R (30-pip SL, 54-pip TP).
What is the upside potential above the 1.39 level?Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the closely watched April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data during the North American trading session. As a key inflation indicator, this data will significantly impact the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada (BoC). The daily chart of USD/CAD exhibits notable technical pattern shifts:
Technical Analysis
Breakout and Resistance Zone Test
The pair has recently breached the 1.3900 psychological level and is currently testing a critical resistance zone.
A double-bottom reversal pattern formed after prices rebounded from the recent low of 1.3749, signaling potential bullish momentum for a trend reversal.
The MACD indicator has shown a decisive upward pivot, with the DIFF line crossing above the DEA line (forming a "golden cross"), and the histogram shifting from green to red, confirming that upward momentum is accumulating.
Market Sentiment
Current market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism, as traders weigh technical bullish signals against the potential fundamental volatility triggered by the CPI release.
Key Implications of CPI Data
Higher-than-Expected Inflation: If the CPI exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the BoC’s hawkish stance, potentially pushing USD/CAD lower toward the 1.3850–1.3800 support level.
Lower-than-Expected Inflation: A softer CPI may fuel expectations of BoC policy easing, driving USD/CAD toward the 1.4000–1.4050 resistance zone.
Trading Considerations
Bullish Scenario: A daily close above 1.3950 would validate the breakout, targeting 1.4080 (the measured move derived from the double-bottom pattern).
Bearish Scenario: A rejection at the resistance zone, combined with weak USD momentum, could trigger a retracement to 1.3820 (the neckline of the double-bottom).
Risk Management: Traders are advised to set tight stop-loss orders around key levels (e.g., below 1.3880 for bullish positions, above 1.3980 for bearish positions) ahead of the data-induced volatility.
The CPI report represents a pivotal inflection point, with the potential to either reinforce the technical breakout or prompt a trend reversal. Market participants should monitor real-time data releases and subsequent BoC communications for directional cues.
Canada's inflation eases, Canadian dollar edges lowerThe Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3920, down 0.21% on the day.
Canada released the April inflation report, which indicated that headline and core inflation were moving in opposite directions. Headline CPI dropped sharply to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.3% but shy of the market estimate of 1.6%. This was the lowest annual inflation rate in seven months. The sharp drop was driven by the end of the consumer carbon tax, with gasoline prices dropping 18% lower compared to April 2024.
Core inflation accelerated in April, with two key indicators rising to an average of 3.15%, compared to 2.85% in March. This was above the market estimate of 2.9%.
The money markets have responded to the inflation data, lowering the probability of a rate cut at the June 4 meeting to 48%, down from 65% prior to the inflation release.
The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its easing cycle, trimming rates seven straight times from June 2024 until April, when it held rates. The cash rate is currently at 2.75% but the BoC is hesitant to lower in the midst of the uncertainty over the US trade tariffs, which have led to sharp swings in the stock markets.
There are no US events on the calendar and the markets will be all ears as a host of FOMC members make public statements today. Investors will be looking for insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates in June and may cut as little as twice in the second half of the year. That could change, depending on inflation, the US labor market and Trump's tariffs.
USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3936. Below, there is support at 1.3911
There is resistance at 1.3952 and 1.3977
USDCAD price squeeze in progressYou can go short near the upper trendline, but it's probably best to wait for the breakout to happen in the next few days.
This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk so carefully managing your capital and risk is important. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more.
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
XAUUSD and USDCAD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
We are watching USDCAD today and on ThursdayCanadian CPIs and PPIs are coming out on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.
Let's dig into the numbers.
FX_IDC:USDCAD
MARKETSCOM:USDCAD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D20 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D20 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅15' order block identified
✅Weekly 50 EMA
✅Daily 50 EMA
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USD/CAD H4 | Overlap support at 50% Fibonacci retracementUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.3894 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.3840 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.4004 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDCAD AnalysisUSDCAD is currently in a bullish trend, with the overall momentum favoring buyers. The pair has broken and successfully retested the weekly high, indicating strong bullish continuation. A clear break and close above the key level at 1.39753 would serve as a solid confirmation to enter long positions, targeting further upside potential.
USD/CAD Coiled for Breakout Ahead of Canada CPIThe USD/CAD rally failed into confluent uptrend resistance at the 200-day moving average last week with price breaking below the median-line today in early U.S. trade- threat for a deeper set-back here towards the 2022 high close / 2023 high at 1.3881/99 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.3852.
Losses would need to be limited to this slope IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 200DMA (currently ~1.4016) needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Keep in mind we have Canada CPI on tap tomorrow.
-MB
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 19 - 23 MayMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rate Decision, Canada & UK Inflation Rate, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
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— RBA’s Interest Rate Decision
— Inflation Rate in Canada
— Inflation Rate in the UK
— Corporate Earnings Statements
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