Daily and 4 Hour Timeframe Analysis (USDCAD, D1 H4) Right Chart: 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis (USDCAD, H4)
This side offers a closer view of the Wyckoff schematic and confirms the market structure through the smaller timeframe.
Phase B of Wyckoff Distribution:
SOW (Sign of Weakness in Phase B) is seen here, marking the preliminary signs that supply is overcoming demand. This is located near the 1.3510 level, an area where institutional participation may be fading on the buy side.
The AR (Automatic Rally) and ST (Secondary Test) events are clearly demarcated, showing where price rebounded after initial breakdowns, testing previous support levels that now act as resistance.
Break of Structure (BOS):
A BOS Internal (4H) event around the 1.34500 level confirms a breach in market structure, suggesting that further downside is likely.
A more significant BOS MSB (Major Structure Break) occurs below 1.3420, confirming a shift in trend direction from bullish to bearish.
POC (Point of Control):
In the 4-hour view, the POC lies near 1.35793, acting as a critical level of volume concentration. This signifies a battle between buyers and sellers, likely to act as a strong area of resistance moving forward.
Supply Zones:
The chart identifies multiple resistance zones where previous support has now flipped to resistance, particularly in the 1.36472 and 1.36229 regions. These resistance lines, along with the BC (Buying Climax) and UT (Upthrust), represent zones where distribution patterns fully manifest.
Projected Downtrend:
The overall bias on both timeframes is bearish, with expected markdowns towards the levels around 1.3137, as the larger Elliott Wave structures unfold.
Conclusion:
This analysis emphasizes a bearish continuation for USD/CAD, aligning with both Wyckoff Distribution and Elliott Wave principles. The market appears to have completed its final upward move (UTAD) and is now entering a markdown phase. Price rejection near the key resistance and supply zones supports this outlook, while the break of structure (BOS) further solidifies the bearish trend.
