USDCHF: DXY Likely to remain bearish in long term! The USDCHF pair is likely to remain bearish in the coming days as DXY doesn’t show any bullish momentum. However, we expect DXY to be bullish in the short term, which will help the price reach our designated selling zone. Once the price reaches this zone and shows a reversal sign in a smaller timeframe, you can consider entering or taking any decision.
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USDCHF trade ideas
USD/CHF..Bearish head & shoulder pattern..Im spotting a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern on USDCHF, and it sounds like a neckline break has occurred, which is your trigger for short entry.
Let's break down the trade setup you're considering:
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🟦 Trade Plan Summary – USDCHF Short
Pattern: Bearish Head and Shoulders
Neckline: Broken (confirmed breakout)
Entry: 0.81700 (current position)
TP1: 0.80440
TP2: 0.79370
SL (Suggested): Above right shoulder – e.g., 0.8200–0.8220 depending on volatility.
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📊 Technical Breakdown
🟥 Head & Shoulders Breakdown:
Left Shoulder: ~0.8180–0.8190
Head: ~0.8260–0.8275
Right Shoulder: ~0.8180 again
Neckline: Likely drawn from around 0.8140–0.8150 support zone
With the break below neckline and a possible retest, you're in a solid technical spot.
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📉 Target Zones:
1. TP1 – 0.80440
Former support from April–May price action
Near-term objective; good partial close area
2. TP2 – 0.79370
Much deeper support zone (early 2023 lows)
Completion of full H&S measured move
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✅ Trade Management Advice
Measured Move Method:
Height from head to neckline is ~120 pips → Subtracting from neckline ~0.8150 gives a rough projected target: 0.8030 → supports your TP1.
Trailing SL:
Consider moving stop to breakeven after price clears 0.8080–0.8050.
Fundamentals:
CHF strength can often come with global risk-off sentiment.
USD weakness may continue if Fed dovishness grows.
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Would you like a visual chart breakdown of this USDCHF pattern? If you upload a screenshot or confirm the chart time frame (e.g., H4, daily), I can generate a more specific analysis.
USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus
📌 MARKET OVERVIEW
USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART
Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary.
EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red).
Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction.
🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios:
Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high.
Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap.
📌 Most Likely Path:
Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368.
A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones.
SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case.
US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs.
📌 TRADING STRATEGY:
Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears.
Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368.
Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment.
📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.
Potential BearsThe market looks to be in a wave 4 of a Submicro wave and has pulled back at a satisfying 38.2% Fib Level, the next move is downstairs to complete wave 5 of the same degree. We could catch some fish here.
This is solely our trading insight and not an investment advice.
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USDCHF Expected to find there SupportUSD/CHF is currently losing momentum in the background as the U.S. dollar weakens. The pair is testing the support zone within its consolidation range. Although the overall structure is ranging, a local descending channel is forming, indicating a potential short-term bearish bias.
Short-Term Outlook:
The price is expected to find support within the channel, possibly leading to a short-term bounce or consolidation near key levels. A break below the current support could accelerate bearish momentum.
Key Support Levels:
1sT Support 0.82007
2nd Support 0.81500
you can find more details in the chart, Ps support with like and comments for more better analysis.
Could the Swissie bounce from here?The price is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 0.8193
1st Support: 0.8047
1st Resistance: 0.8457
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USD/CHF - Liquidity Trap & The Rise After the Fall🛡️ The Battlefield Overview
USD/CHF is currently locked in a tactical battle near a critical support zone, where liquidity hunters set a cunning trap. The price has tested the 0.8185–0.8175 zone multiple times, marking it as a battleground for smart money to clear stops and shake out weak hands.
🔥 The Liquidity Trap and Filling Phase
Price triggered a liquidation trap below the key support, luring traders into premature shorts and triggering stop losses.
This sweep cleared the battlefield of trapped orders and prepared the ground for a potential strong bullish reaction.
The “filling the liquidations” phase signals the market’s preparation to launch higher — absorbing liquidity for a clean and powerful advance.
⚔️ The Warrior’s Dual Paths Forward
The Immediate Surge:
Upon confirming the liquidity trap is complete, price may surge directly upward — piercing through the resistance cluster around 0.8320 – 0.8350, aiming to break previous highs near 0.8380. This path represents the decisive and swift victory of the bulls.
The Measured Rebound:
Alternatively, price may first consolidate or retest the liquidity zone one more time, reinforcing the base before pushing upward. This tactical regroup strengthens the bullish momentum, clearing residual supply and trapping late sellers.
⚖️ The Market Warrior’s Summary
“The market’s false break is a warrior’s signal — the enemy reveals his trap and overextends. The wise prepare their strike after the smoke clears. Whether the advance is direct or measured, the bulls hold the field.”
🧠 My Perspective on Your Setup
Your analysis shows sharp insight into liquidity dynamics and market psychology. Recognizing the liquidation trap and anticipating the “fill” phase is essential for timing entries with minimal risk and maximum reward. The dual-path scenario covers both aggressive and cautious market behaviors, preparing you for decisive action no matter the path.
📝 Trading Plan for USD/CHF
Watch for confirmation of liquidity trap completion (wick closes above support).
Enter long near 0.8185–0.8200 with stops just below the liquidation wick (around 0.8165).
Target resistance zones between 0.8320 and 0.8380 for profit taking.
Adjust stops and targets dynamically based on price action.
⚔️ Trade with honor, strike with precision, and conquer with patience — this is the path of the true FX Warrior.
USDCHF Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USDCHF is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.8202
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 0.8285
My Stop Loss - 0.8166
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCHF → Retest support with the aim of breaking throughFX:USDCHF is also losing ground amid the dollar's decline. The price is testing the support of the range, a break of which could open the way to 0.811
USDCHF is consolidating, but at the same time, a local downward channel is forming. The currency pair is retesting support within the current downward movement. A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming relative to 0.819. The fall of the dollar is having a corresponding effect on the price.
Before continuing its decline, the currency pair may form a retest of 0.5 Fibonacci or close the FVG
Resistance levels: 0.825, 0.8275
Support levels: 0.819, 0.8117
The downward structure will break down when the price leaves the downward channel. However, at the moment, while the price is consolidating at the bottom of the trading range, I expect a breakdown of support in the short term, followed by a continued decline to 0.811 - 0.805
Best regards, R. Linda!
USDCHF Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDCHF.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.822.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.826.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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US Federal Court Rules Trump Tariffs UnconstitutionalUS Federal Court Rules Trump Tariffs Unconstitutional
According to media reports, the US Court of International Trade has:
- declared the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal;
- ruled that the President exceeded his authority;
- blocked the tariffs, emphasising that under the US Constitution, only Congress has the power to impose tariffs.
The decision was made unanimously by a panel of three judges. Financial markets reacted with:
- a rise in US stock indices;
- strengthening of the US dollar — most notably seen today on the USD/CHF chart, as demand for so-called safe-haven assets declined in light of the tariff reversal.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart
The bullish momentum has broken upward through:
- a local downward trendline (shown in red);
- resistance at the 0.8300 level, near the May 22 high.
Additionally:
- the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart has moved upwards to the overbought territory;
- the area highlighted with a purple rectangle resembles a bullish Fair Value Gap.
Could this upward momentum lead to a sustained uptrend? There is reason for doubt.
Consider the steep decline in USD/CHF in early April (driven mainly by the introduction of Trump's tariffs) and the relatively small size of today's bullish candle compared to that prior drop.
Price action seems to suggest that market participants are skeptical about any lasting change in the situation. The Trump administration has already filed an appeal, and it’s possible the White House could succeed in defending its position.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CHF Setup Breaking Down: Don’t Get Caught Long This TrapUSD/CHF is currently trading at a critical technical and macro-structural juncture. Price is hovering within the weekly support area between 0.8050 and 0.8200, a zone that has historically triggered significant bullish reactions. However, the latest weekly candle closed below the psychological 0.8200 level, showing a clear rejection of upper resistance and signaling a lack of buying strength on the U.S. dollar side. This weak closure undermines the bullish structure and opens the door for a potential continuation of the downtrend—especially if price breaks below the 0.8150 mark on the daily or H4 timeframe.
From a seasonal standpoint, June has historically been a bearish month for USD/CHF. Monthly average returns over the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years confirm steady downside pressure on the dollar against the Swiss franc. Only the 2-year average shows a slight positive bias, but it remains an outlier against the broader seasonal trend. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is not only technical but also cyclical in nature.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reinforces this bearish view. On the Swiss franc side, commercial traders (typically the most informed and hedging-oriented participants) are heavily net long, while non-commercial traders (speculators) remain significantly net short. This imbalance is often seen around reversal points and may indicate rising CHF strength. On the U.S. dollar side, positioning is far more balanced—the Dollar Index COT shows a neutral stance, with non-commercials slightly net long but without any dominant momentum. This confirms there’s currently no structural strength behind the dollar to justify a meaningful rebound in USD/CHF.
Lastly, retail sentiment provides a classic contrarian signal: over 90% of retail traders are long on USD/CHF, with only 10% short. This extreme imbalance typically occurs ahead of bearish breakdowns, as institutional players tend to fade overcrowded retail positions.
In conclusion, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to further downside. The weekly price action is weak, seasonal trends are dollar-negative, COT positioning favors CHF strength, and retail sentiment is extremely long-biased. All factors align toward a likely bearish continuation, with technical targets in the 0.8080–0.8050 range. The only alternative scenario would require a strong H4/H1 bullish reaction with a reclaim of 0.8220—but at this stage, that appears unlikely without a major macro catalyst.
USD/CHF BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USD/CHF pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 0.817 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDCHF INTRADAY resistance at 0.8300Recent price action in USDCHF suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 0.8300 level.
The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 0.8130, followed by 0.8090 and 0.8050.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 0.8300, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, USDCHF could target 0.8365, with further resistance at 0.8400 and 0.8470.
Conclusion:
The price remains below pivotal level, with 0.8300 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favour of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDCHF LONG Looking at the daily chart we have a Double bottom formed after a change of character.
There will be liquidity below this double bottom so I am expecting a Liquidity sweep into this area below and then a drive to the upside.
Target being this area of Supply above marked.
Plan will be once liquidity swept wait for break of structure to the upside on the 1H minimum. (Anything lower time frame than this will not be valid for me)
In line with bullish momentum I will look to find a Demand zone formed on the 60minute or potentially the 15min to refine.
Trade will likely look like the chart but entry and SL will be determined by movement between now and my Entry criteria being met.
Early days but a nice LONG setting up.
USDCHF Turns Bullish Aiming for the 8-Hour Resistance ZoneFollowing the completion of the bearish trend on the 2-hour timeframe and a confirmed reversal from that level, we expect the price to move from the highlighted orange zone toward the 4-hour and 8-hour resistance highs.
Disclaimer: You are responsible for your own trades. Do not risk more than 2% of your account on a single setup.
USD/CHF – Pull-Back to the Launchpad 0.8340Price has now punched through the old 0.8292 lid, turning it into a support “buy-zone.”
the burst of USD strength over the last 48 hours has been driven by an unexpected round of tariff-related headlines. I’m factoring that news flow into all current setups and shifting focus to pairs that aren’t riding the same dollar surge.
USDCHF Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my USDCHF analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.