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U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc

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USDCHF trade ideas

USDCHF - In front of Golden Cross - 2 Options leftUSDCHF - after a double top, and still remaining gap to fill in front of the highest supply zone, the USD had a complete bearish downwards momentum this week so far, and closed day after day lower. In the moment I am writing the post, we are in front of the important 0.88000 level, which served several times as important line, and price couldn't break through. As we all know, with support / ressistance as much more often it was tested, there is a high likelyhood to break in the next attempt, downwards momentum and bearish seasonality of USD on our side. 2. Option USD breaks out the downward channel, you can buy the breakout on a 1 hour chart, and makes a last retracement, before going lower the next weeks.
Short
by Meandthemarkets
2
USD/CHF The Move Everyone Will Regret Missing!Key Levels Resistance: 1.60990 - Potential Wave 3 peak. 4.40000 - Historical resistance level from Wave (B). Support: 0.70668 - Accumulation Phase support in Phase A. 1.11110 - Bullish Order Block (12M) and major pivot level. Entry Plan Primary Entry: Place limit buys around 1.11110, aligning with the Bullish OB support zone. Additional accumulation within the 1.00000-1.11110 range. Trigger Confirmation: Look for a clear breakout of 1.53990 (CHoCH MSS area) signaling trend continuation. Stop Loss (SL) Place SL below 1.00000, under the protected swing low of Wave 2 for added security. Take Profit (TP) Short-term TP: 1.53990 Mid-term TP: 1.60990 Final TP: 4.40000 Invalidation Break below 0.70668 invalidates the bullish scenario. Wave Structure Insight Wave 1: Established the bullish breakout after accumulation. Wave 2: Current retracement (LPS in Phase B). Wave 3: Expected large impulsive move aligned with Wyckoff Phase C breakout. Wave 4 & 5: Projected minor corrections and final upward push toward historical resistance.
Long
by spaceangel
Bullish rise?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 0.8801 1st Support: 0.8765 1st Resistance: 0.8886 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDCHF H4 | Bearish Continuation?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.8856, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.8772, a pullback support close to 50% Fibo retracement The stop loss will be at 0.8916, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Holiday Markets and All Markets Spot CheckLimited trading for the remainder of the week in the US with Thanksgiving We've notched a few all-time highs in the US markets but without any major surges. Low volume and light activity have been pretty apparent as the post election rips have settled down somewhat. US data still in line before FOMC on Dec 18. Current FED Watch Tool showing a 64% probability of the FED still cutting 25 bps before end of year. This will be an important message from the FED to the markets on how the FED plans to adjust monetary policy in 2025 (pause, hold, cut, hike). DXY and USD related crosses showing signs of nice movement (weaker dollar). Let's see if that is a stronger reversal pattern with follow through as many USD pairs are at strong support/resistance levels to show some reactions. I'm not aggressively positioning on anything currently. If the melt-up continues, it's pretty easy and steady gains. If we have any flinch or pullback before end of year, I'll have my hedges in profit to help offset drawdowns. The best path for me is management both ways and inexpensive protection to the downside. Thanks for watching!!!
by ChrisPulver
USDCHF - The new Treasury Secretary will weaken the dollar?!The USDCHF currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone, and sell in the form of scalps with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted in a recent report that the dollar is likely to remain stable through the end of the year, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December. While markets remain divided on the likelihood of a rate cut next month, ING anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction. Turner suggested that such a move, coupled with potential seasonal weakness, could weigh negatively on the dollar. However, amid geopolitical uncertainties and the stronger performance of the U.S. economy compared to the Eurozone, the dollar is expected to remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets. According to the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, “the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months reached its lowest point in November.” The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, released last night, revealed that some policymakers believe the pace of rate cuts could accelerate if economic activity declines or the labor market weakens. Conversely, some officials warned that persistent inflation might necessitate halting the easing cycle and maintaining rates at restrictive levels. Many policymakers highlighted uncertainty about the neutral rate, emphasizing the need for a gradual reduction in monetary restrictions. Scott Bennett, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that a weak dollar policy could become a cornerstone of Trump’s second administration. In a letter published earlier this year by Bennett’s hedge fund, he argued that Trump is more likely to pursue a dollar-weakening strategy than rely on tariffs. Bennett stated that tariffs tend to drive inflation and strengthen the dollar, which conflicts with efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing. Bennett predicted that a weaker dollar early in Trump’s second term could enhance the competitiveness of U.S. industrial production. He argued that a weaker dollar, coupled with cheap and abundant energy, could fuel economic growth. This perspective diverges from Wall Street’s current consensus, which leans toward a stronger dollar. Bennett remarked that dollar strengthening might only occur later in Trump’s term if efforts to onshore production prove successful. He also pointed to the constraints imposed by tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and budget deficits, which he believes hinder Trump’s economic objectives. Bennett suggested that focusing on deliberate currency devaluation could simultaneously achieve GDP growth, fiscal improvement, and stock market gains—at least in nominal terms. Bennett stressed that targeting a weaker dollar against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen could yield more impactful results. He even suggested that such a strategy could allow China to claim it had avoided U.S. tariffs, presenting it as a “win.” Bennett’s statements carry significant weight given his new role as Treasury Secretary. He also briefly referenced the concept of Bretton Woods 3, noting that while it is not currently a primary scenario, conditions for its realization are in place. Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank Chairman Schlegel stated that Switzerland benefits from a flexible inflation framework that enables it to respond more effectively to economic shocks. He noted that while the Swiss franc is recognized as a safe-haven currency, this very characteristic can lead to appreciation during global recessions, which may harm Switzerland’s economy. The SNB remains committed to price stability, which Schlegel identified as a key factor in the country’s economic success. He also did not rule out the possibility of a return to negative interest rates.
Long
by Ali_PSND