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U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc

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USDCHF trade ideas

USDCHF - The new Treasury Secretary will weaken the dollar?!The USDCHF currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone, and sell in the form of scalps with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted in a recent report that the dollar is likely to remain stable through the end of the year, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December. While markets remain divided on the likelihood of a rate cut next month, ING anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction. Turner suggested that such a move, coupled with potential seasonal weakness, could weigh negatively on the dollar. However, amid geopolitical uncertainties and the stronger performance of the U.S. economy compared to the Eurozone, the dollar is expected to remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets. According to the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, “the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months reached its lowest point in November.” The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, released last night, revealed that some policymakers believe the pace of rate cuts could accelerate if economic activity declines or the labor market weakens. Conversely, some officials warned that persistent inflation might necessitate halting the easing cycle and maintaining rates at restrictive levels. Many policymakers highlighted uncertainty about the neutral rate, emphasizing the need for a gradual reduction in monetary restrictions. Scott Bennett, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that a weak dollar policy could become a cornerstone of Trump’s second administration. In a letter published earlier this year by Bennett’s hedge fund, he argued that Trump is more likely to pursue a dollar-weakening strategy than rely on tariffs. Bennett stated that tariffs tend to drive inflation and strengthen the dollar, which conflicts with efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing. Bennett predicted that a weaker dollar early in Trump’s second term could enhance the competitiveness of U.S. industrial production. He argued that a weaker dollar, coupled with cheap and abundant energy, could fuel economic growth. This perspective diverges from Wall Street’s current consensus, which leans toward a stronger dollar. Bennett remarked that dollar strengthening might only occur later in Trump’s term if efforts to onshore production prove successful. He also pointed to the constraints imposed by tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and budget deficits, which he believes hinder Trump’s economic objectives. Bennett suggested that focusing on deliberate currency devaluation could simultaneously achieve GDP growth, fiscal improvement, and stock market gains—at least in nominal terms. Bennett stressed that targeting a weaker dollar against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen could yield more impactful results. He even suggested that such a strategy could allow China to claim it had avoided U.S. tariffs, presenting it as a “win.” Bennett’s statements carry significant weight given his new role as Treasury Secretary. He also briefly referenced the concept of Bretton Woods 3, noting that while it is not currently a primary scenario, conditions for its realization are in place. Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank Chairman Schlegel stated that Switzerland benefits from a flexible inflation framework that enables it to respond more effectively to economic shocks. He noted that while the Swiss franc is recognized as a safe-haven currency, this very characteristic can lead to appreciation during global recessions, which may harm Switzerland’s economy. The SNB remains committed to price stability, which Schlegel identified as a key factor in the country’s economic success. He also did not rule out the possibility of a return to negative interest rates.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Bullish Bias on USDCHFOn this USDCHF bullish setup, the confluences for it are- 1) Market Structure-BoS 2) Demand 3) Imbalance 4) Liquidity If price is able to successfully retrace to my POI demand zone, I’ll head down ti the lower/entry timeframes of 15mins-3mins to identify a confirmation entry ChoCh, then identify my entry point on it which is either an Order-Block(demand) or a breaker-block, imbalance, liquidity or an order-block(demand) or a breaker block, imbalance. If identified correctly I’ll have my orders placed and target a maximum 1:3rr as profit target. Note: the market is all about probabilities which also makes my analysis a probability.
Long
by MeekBosslife
BUY!!! USDCHF HAS REACHED A WEEKLY AND DAILY INTEREST AREAHELLO TRADERS, I AM VERY INTERESTED IN BUYING THIS USDCHF PAIR FOR THE NEXT SESSIONS IN LONDON AND NEW YORK, EVERYTHING INDICATES THAT THE PRICE WILL RISE AGAIN. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CONFLUENCES AT THIS MOMENT 1.- bullish weekly time frame 2.- bullish daily time frame 3.- 4 Hr bullish time frame 4.- rejection of weekly interest zone 5.- rejection of psychological number 0.88500 6.- we are in an area of ​​daily interest 7.- 4 Hr EMA rejection 8.- rejection candle 4 Hr 9.- structure change 30 M 10.- 15 M envelope candle, 30 M envelope candle, 1 Hr enveloping candle, 2 Hr enveloping candle. why do I like it? The weekly, daily and 4-hour time frame are bullish, that is, they are in total harmony. The most logical thing is to buy if the time frames are bullish!!! The weekly candle from the previous week was rejected in an area of ​​interest. The price has been rejected in a weekly interest zone that has been respected on repeated occasions in the past. The price is currently in a daily interest zone that has been respected on numerous occasions in the past. The psychological number 0.88500 has been tested perfectly which has attracted buyers at this strong level. The price has been rejected at the EMA in the 4 Hr time frame. The bearish structure on the 30M time frame has been broken. We have an engulfing candle on the 15M, 30M, 1Hr and 2Hr time frame. In all this the only thing more reasonable is to look for purchases since the time frames are rising. If you liked my analysis, don't forget to follow me and like it, I will respond to comments and suggestions. Wait for new updates, blessings and luck!!!
Long
by FxAlexisTrader
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