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US Dollar/Chinese Yuan

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USDCNH trade ideas

ridethepig | Tracking CNH Extremely Closely🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸 The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract. For those tracking the Long-term Macro Playbook we are reaching the first area of strong support. Now that all the pieces to the global economy are hanging by a thread, it will be difficult to continue betting on the downside in USD until we clear the second chapter in covid. To put simply, expecting a temporary stop-over till 2021 as markets will have a difficult time from August convincing people to stand as guarantors to CNH till year-end. The "Giant Panda" has been playing a 🔑 role in sitting on the AUD bid...however, in an ever changing environment the arrival of Covid Chapter II will make things even more complex. Highly recommend digging deeper into the AUDCNH and NZDCNH which are both experiencing the slingshot as widely expected since the start of the pandemic: 📍 AUDCNH 📍 NZDCNH ... As you all know by now the Oil devaluation gave China a third lever to control its C.A surplus - by devaluing the black stuff it was the equivalent of devaluating the Yuan. As long as we get another hammer in Oil then it will offset any upside in CNHUSD, the only way that the U.S. can manoeuvre around this is by pushing up the price of XAU in USD terms. Why❓ ... Well as we can trade GC1 and CL1 in both USD and CNY terms it means the Gold:Oil ratio is indirectly tightening the noose on the petrodollar market. Despair. It illustrates the unhealthy stance of the energy market and the 'checkmate' from China/Russia. The textbook move involves a pinning of USD and US Equities. We are still not quite there yet where the USD can begin the waterfall devaluation, it will take a Plaza Accord 2.0 to trigger such an event and until the dollar peaks Equities will remain vulnerable to gyrations in risk sentiment. Those who are betting on the CNHUSD breakdown are also aiming for a retest of support at the March lows in SPX, NQ and DJIA... The USD will still be the safest place to park in Covid Chapter II. 📍 The Dow 📍 Shanghai Comp Highly recommend tracking CNH in the 'endgame' of the economy cycle. Typically recessions last 5 Quarters in time and it is far from unusual to see 2 or 3 of those Quarters as dead-cat-bounces. If you are still in any doubts of the picture equity promoters are painting, please take a look at Long Bonds which are refusing to subscribe to the V-shaped consensus view. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
The Chinese yuan continues to advance against the US dollarThe Chinese yuan continues to advance against the US dollar as the Chinese economy gradually recovers. The USD/CNH trading pair’s prices are widely predicted to remain bearish and possibly reach its support level in the first week of August. Bears are hoping to force prices to the range last seen in early March before the pandemic worsened around the world. The main strength of the Chinese yuan comes from the recent reports that Goldman Sachs says that it sees the currency reinforcing itself against the US dollar in the next 12 months. However, the Chinese yuan’s strength suddenly felt a sudden stop this Monday after the People’s Bank of China announced its official interest rates this morning. Earlier this Monday, the PBoC announced that it has set its 5-year loan prime rate at about 4.65%, leaving it unchanged from a month earlier. Aside from that, the Chinese central bank also left its 1-year loan prime rate unmoved at about 3.85%.
Short
by Financebroker
USDCNH | WEEKLY PERSPECTIVEWith over 800pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes), it appears that the Chinese Yuan is not reversing any time soon as USD/CNH risks a potential decline to the 6.9500/6.9300 area in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Harmonic (AB = CD) Observation: i. The fall of the USD since the beginning of this month (July 2020) appears to continue as we anticipate a Breakdown of my Key level 6.98000 leading to a Harmonic pattern. ii. ABCD pattern expectations: a. Impulse A-to-B expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is at 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 450 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 Potential Duration: 1 to 4 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. NirvanaForex Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
The Chinese yuan continues to see gains against the US dollarThe Chinese yuan continues to see gains against the US dollar this Wednesday. Although yesterday the buck appeared like it’s forcing a recovery, there are more fundamental factors supporting the Chinese yuan’s case. The pair will likely reach its support levels this July thanks to the positive sentiment sparked by American investment banking company, Goldman Sachs. Just recently, it was reported that the bank sees the Chinese yuan strengthening further against the beloved US dollar in the next twelve months. According to the bank’s strategists, the Chinese yuan will primarily rally thanks to the recovery of the Chinese economy’s health. It’s no new news that China, where the outbreak started, has very few existing cases as of writing. That comes in contrast to the number of cases seen in the United States. Aside from that, the economic recovery of some of China’s biggest trading partners is helping the yuan power through.
Short
by Financebroker
USD/CNH 7/7/2020Welcome to this analysis on USD/CNH. Looking at the daily chart, the price has been trading in a wide range between 6.85 and 7.2 since July. On 28th of May price tested the top resistant of the range and got rejected from there and created a Head And Shoulders reversal pattern at the top half of the range that just got activated by a break and close below the neckline of the pattern at 7.04. The target of the Head And Shoulders is around 6.88 as long as the price doesn't move back up above the right shoulder of the pattern. The first support zone below the price is around 6.92 and below that the low of the range at 6.85. This trade idea has 4 rewards to risk ratio. Good luck trading.
Short
by Trader_Shayan
Trade idea USDCNH longUSDCNH follows a medium-term uptrend. On 27/05/2020 the pair reached its previous high at 7.20 and got rejected. In the last two weeks we saw a decline back to the SMA200 at 7.0450 where we today saw a rebound in an environment of risk aversion and dollar strength. This situation gives a long engagements a very good return/risk ratio. Trade parameters are as follows: - entry at current level of 7.08 - stop loss at 7.01 (conservative approach) or below 7.04 (aggressive approach) - take profit at 7.195 for 67% of the position
Long
by DrChristophCanne