USDCNH trade ideas
USDCNH summer sales 🦐After our last 2 call on this pair, we check for another opportunity on USDCNH pair.
The market hs moved in lower high lower low pattern and tested 3 times the ema 21 that always rejected the move.
Recently the price has retraced till the 0.5 fib level and now is pushing down to test again the weekly support.
If the price will manage to break and close below the structure we can look for a nice short order according with our strategy.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
A STRONGER YUAN AND USD SELL RALLY IS NEXT MOVE - US-CHINA WAR U.S foreign policy is in the spotlight. U.S – China relations took yet another turn for the worse late last week. Expect plenty of chatter in the week ahead, as Trump looks to woo lost support ahead of the Presidential Election. The ongoing spat between the U.S and China will continue in the week. The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.10% gains to CNY6.9680 against the U.S Dollar.
The fall of USD against major pairs will continue.
USDCNH. The price will not leave the downtrend boundaries.Hello dear subscribers.
The dollar price in the previous chart for this currency pair
showed a positive result and the price reached its target.
However, the price continues to be under the influence of the
downtrend and will not leave its borders.
The price will fall to the support level.
Good luck to you!
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This idea does not provide the financial advice.
USDCNH - Plan 10/8time frame D
USD in channel decreased over 2 months from 7,195 to 6,933. The end of August 7 is a green candle that closes at a lower level than the highest price of the day. This shows that the buyers were strong from the beginning of the day but at the end of the day there were signs of being weaker than the sellers.
Smaller timeframes have a divergence formation
Time frame H4
still inside the down channel, the price is facing resistance at 6.97
Time frame H1
price patterned 2 small peaks, RSI has a divergence, showing that the price is likely to decline to 6,954
Plan
Give priority to sell orders
1. Frame H1 if the price rises above the resistance zone at 6,972, wait for price action at the edge on the corresponding channel to the resistance zone at 6.988. If the price surpasses 6,988, consider a buy order with a stop loss at 6,972. (do not prioritize buy orders)
2. Frame H1 if the price falls, waiting for the price to break through the neck line at 6.954, set up a sell order with stop loss at 6.964 and target at 6.922, at 6.922 should consider giving a buy order if there are signs of a reversal.
3. Frame H4 price increased over the channel corresponding to the 9,854 zone, consider buying with stop loss 6.974, target at 7.023, respectively at this zone, consider a sell order.
USDCNH | MY PERSPECTIVE FOR THE WEEKSince my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); price has moved over 500pips in our direction followed by a correction move with the anticipation of a further decline scattered all over the place! As USDCNH risk a further decline in the following week, a retest of my Key level is red flag to watch out for in the following week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Retracement | Trendline | Breakdown | Supply & Demand
Observation: i. Breakdown of my Key zone @ 6.98000 followed by a retest of this zone in the following week confirms my Bearish bias on this one.
ii. Correction of Breakdown impulse leg appears to culminate at my key zone which is 61.8 retracements.
iii. It is also worthy to note how selling pressure has been strong at the corridors of my Bearish Trendline since it's inception in June 2020.
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 600 pips.
Risk/Reward: 1:3
Potential Duration: 3 to 7 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
NirvanaForex
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDCNH | WEEKLY PERSPECTIVERecent upbeat data from China standing in contrast to the sluggish US statistics, the Bears once again are gradually regaining control as Sellers bombard 6.9900 level, down 0.15% on the last day of last week. With a meagre 45pips since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), my Bearish bias still persists as price action has been caught within a consolidation phase with the anticipation that a Breakout from this range might be emphatic in the following week(s).
Tendency : Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure : Channel (Bearish Rectangle)
Observation : i. The fall of the USD since the beginning of July 2020 appears to continue even though we had a heavy consolidation pattern throughout the later part of last month.
ii. My Key level at 6.98000 is still a level on my radar in the coming week as I anticipate a significant Breakdown considering the selling pressure @ 7.00500.
iii. Kindly refer to my previous broadcast on this pair as the Harmonic expectation (AB = CD) is still in existence.
Trading plan : SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 550 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:3
Potential Duration : 1 to 5 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
NirvanaForex
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Decent Entry: USDCNHI believe that currently the USDCNH is having correlations previous to one of its last breakout patterns and that at the current price, it is a decent entry. I think currently this is mid risk. That being said, everything I say is on an opinion based basis. Please proceed with caution and do your own due diligence. Invest at your own risk.
USDCNH Short trade Idea Medium termTalks of rising US-China tensions has given some light with regards to what one can expect in the market within USDCNH with the month
to come. Things are of course stilll uncertain, however the wave count seems to be corresponding with fundamental speculations. A break
out of the guideline would signal a change in trade bias. A rare pattern called an expanding diagonal has formed. Since these are crazy
market times, I don't think it's a coincidence that rare patterns are surfacing.
Targets:
-6.90800
-6.86400
-6.83000
I hope you enjoy this analysis, if you do please let me know down in the comments. I would appreciate your perspectives as well.
USDCNH : Trendline BreakoutHi .
The trend line on the USDCNH pair has been broken since May 28.
Parameters :
Position Size : %1 (0.01)
Risk/Reward Ratio : 2.00
Leverage : 100x
Stop-Loss : 6.99627
Goal : 7.0596
NOTE :
If everything goes well here, the long position above Fibonacci 618 level can be tried again.
Regards.
Rising wedge and Fibonacci? USDCNHAccording to the chart, we can see that the price has already been through the rising wedge, as we expected, the price went down after the rising wedge. So, what could the price go next?
I built a Fibonacci on the latest downward trend, now we can see the price retrace back to around 0.382 level.
Yes, I consider that small upward wave a retracement, so now, after the retracement, let’s expect the price to continue to go down.
USDCHN Possible ReversalTrend-momentum theory again here -stuff no one teaches. And so, I predict that bears will come in cash out and price will bounce up for bulls, and hopefully it will be a strong bounce for bulls.
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Ideas in this page are speculative and not a financial market investment advice , please apply your own analysis and confirm it with price action.
ridethepig | Tracking CNH Extremely Closely🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸
The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract.
For those tracking the Long-term Macro Playbook we are reaching the first area of strong support. Now that all the pieces to the global economy are hanging by a thread, it will be difficult to continue betting on the downside in USD until we clear the second chapter in covid. To put simply,
expecting a temporary stop-over till 2021 as markets will have a difficult time from August convincing people to stand as guarantors to CNH till year-end.
The "Giant Panda" has been playing a 🔑 role in sitting on the AUD bid...however, in an ever changing environment the arrival of Covid Chapter II will make things even more complex. Highly recommend digging deeper into the AUDCNH and NZDCNH which are both experiencing the slingshot as widely expected since the start of the pandemic:
📍 AUDCNH
📍 NZDCNH
... As you all know by now the Oil devaluation gave China a third lever to control its C.A surplus - by devaluing the black stuff it was the equivalent of devaluating the Yuan. As long as we get another hammer in Oil then it will offset any upside in CNHUSD, the only way that the U.S. can manoeuvre around this is by pushing up the price of XAU in USD terms.
Why❓
... Well as we can trade GC1 and CL1 in both USD and CNY terms it means the Gold:Oil ratio is indirectly tightening the noose on the petrodollar market.
Despair. It illustrates the unhealthy stance of the energy market and the 'checkmate' from China/Russia. The textbook move involves a pinning of USD and US Equities. We are still not quite there yet where the USD can begin the waterfall devaluation, it will take a Plaza Accord 2.0 to trigger such an event and until the dollar peaks Equities will remain vulnerable to gyrations in risk sentiment.
Those who are betting on the CNHUSD breakdown are also aiming for a retest of support at the March lows in SPX, NQ and DJIA... The USD will still be the safest place to park in Covid Chapter II.
📍 The Dow
📍 Shanghai Comp
Highly recommend tracking CNH in the 'endgame' of the economy cycle. Typically recessions last 5 Quarters in time and it is far from unusual to see 2 or 3 of those Quarters as dead-cat-bounces. If you are still in any doubts of the picture equity promoters are painting, please take a look at Long Bonds which are refusing to subscribe to the V-shaped consensus view.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
The Chinese yuan continues to advance against the US dollarThe Chinese yuan continues to advance against the US dollar as the Chinese economy gradually recovers. The USD/CNH trading pair’s prices are widely predicted to remain bearish and possibly reach its support level in the first week of August. Bears are hoping to force prices to the range last seen in early March before the pandemic worsened around the world. The main strength of the Chinese yuan comes from the recent reports that Goldman Sachs says that it sees the currency reinforcing itself against the US dollar in the next 12 months. However, the Chinese yuan’s strength suddenly felt a sudden stop this Monday after the People’s Bank of China announced its official interest rates this morning. Earlier this Monday, the PBoC announced that it has set its 5-year loan prime rate at about 4.65%, leaving it unchanged from a month earlier. Aside from that, the Chinese central bank also left its 1-year loan prime rate unmoved at about 3.85%.
