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U.S. Dollar / Chinese Yuan

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USDCNY trade ideas

Downtrend Falling wedgeStrong downtrend...but possibly forming support. Price tried to break top trendline of channel down and was rejected. Before downtrend got some energy, price was making it to upper bollinger band set on an 80 MA. Now having struggling to make it to middle bollinger band and has not made it to the MA in a while Bullish case: It has broken up and out of the falling wedge and possibly forming support. Falling wedges can be bullish at the bottom. The trendlines of a falling wedge in a downtrend slope in the direction of the trend and converge at the apex. In an uptrend, a falling wedge slopes countertrend but can also be bullish if price breaks up and out of the falling wedge.. Bearish case: Downtrend and has not broken upper trendline. Price was rejected at attempt to break upper trendline on first attempt, although red candle did not engulf the green candle. Marubozo bullish green candle followed by a red candle of same size taking the gains away from previous trading day. No recommendation
by lauralea
8 Good Reasons To Short USDFive world-class investors that are bearish on USD... 1) Ray Dalio “You can’t continue to run deficits, sell debt or print money rather than be productive and sustain that over a period of time. If we don’t work together to do the sound things, to be productive, to earn more than we spend, to build the stability of our currency and build a good balance sheet, we are going to decline." www.marketwatch.com 2) Stephen Roach "The US dollar could collapse by the end of 2021 and the economy can expect a more than 50% chance of a double-dip recession" “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit” “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” markets.businessinsider.com 3) Hugh Hendry “When I look at the world of macro, I think it’s telling us that we need a lower print on the dollar itself.” “I think we need the Treasury, and not the Fed, to step up to the plate and tell the world ‘we’re going to target 70 or 60 on the dollar index.’ That would change the world.” www.cnbc.com 4) Warren Buffet "The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net." "If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door." "If we have the same policies, the dollar will go down." moneyweek.com 5) Ulf Lindahl will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade, and “is the beginning of a very large move.” www.reuters.com Note: Analysts from Citi, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock are also bearish on USD www.aljazeera.com markets.businessinsider.com www.reuters.com
Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
1
CNYUSD Leveling Up!And the first one up on the CNY series now, CNYUSD is definitely bullish to the nth degree. looking for a move up now and probably a few more after that. One thing at a time, so I'll be concentrating on the most immediate goals. I always say this, and I will say it again, nothing I say is financial advice. Think for yourselves! Fibonacci goals in green or purple, invalidation is in red. Fractals never lie and Fibonacci series shows us a few goals out of a million or more possibilities.
Long
by Rykin_Capital
ridethepig | CNY for the Yearly Close📌 CNY for the Yearly Close... In the usual tradition, this topping formation appeared to fit the bill! The correct way to play it was for sellers to proceed; dollar weakness was knocking while CNY was quite tenable. It is now obvious that the above mentioned development has been less time consuming that the initial legs higher: This means the position we are tracking into the yearly close appears quite harmless but is very alarming. Sellers are now threatening to occupy the lows, in addition it has been quite comfortable for them with Trump unable to say much, the Biden Whitehouse will ensure dollar devaluation with extreme care. This year has clearly been the year of the yuan. In order to chase the moves lower; let's look for some targets and areas to unload liquidity - I am tracking 6.242x for the minor targets and 6.040x for the major targets in 2021. This obviously recognises the charming continuations, sellers should look for any weak rallies to scale into towards year-end. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
CNY/USD Medium-Term Analysis: Weekly Market BreakdownIn this analysis, we started taking on the majors against the U.S. Dollar (USD), beginning with the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY). Despite its still lower status in comparison with the traditional majors (USD, GBP, EUR, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD & NZD) and also its lower liquidity and overall current non-relevance in the wider FX market, it nonetheless scored the highest appreciation in the last quarter in USD terms, higher than any other traded currency, either major or minor, with over 5% up on the 'Rate Of Change' (ROC) for the last 15 periods on the weekly. With that in mind, we begin this series by carefully analysing this pair, taking into consideration major support and resistance levels, as well as divergences between price action on the IDC (i.e. 'broker-neutral') compiled chart & oscillator data (ROC, 15, W). For this specific analysis, we opted for not using Fibonacci levels and instead adopted price action pivot points for framing our perspective on market movements. We're hoping to continue this series on the other majors and (if time allows it!) dive into some of the minors as well. Wish you guys good trading and if you enjoy this analysis, please give me a like and share your ideas on the comments section, I'll really appreciate feedback from you guys and I promise to read and reply to each and every one of them as soon as possible. An amazing week for all of you and until the next post! :)
Short
by acsedward
Chinese Yuan Chart Could Be More Important than the NasdaqThe monster rally in Nasdaq stocks has obviously grabbed most people’s attention recently. However there’s also been a major shift in currency markets as the U.S. dollar slides. That trend has paused for more than a month. Looking simply at the dollar index , it’s not clear whether the decline is ready to continue. But DXY is two-thirds European (euro and sterling). Today we want to look at another currency that’s not even a member of the dollar index: The Chinese Yuan . USDCNY consolidated under roughly 6.85 in the first half of September before breaking lower this week. That was a low in January, so it appears that old support has become resistance. The news flow is also noteworthy because China just reported better-than-expected industrial production. Interestingly, the South China Morning Post ran an editorial yesterday titled “China should seize the moment to free up controls on the yuan to expand its international use.” Coming from an officially sanctioned publication, that seems to indicate Beijing is going to let the yuan appreciate. (Which means USDCNY goes down.) Earlier in the month, Morgan Stanley predicted USDCNY will keep moving toward 6.6 by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, headlines for the U.S. dollar are just the opposite. Our economic data has rebounded somewhat, but more than half the jobs lost to coronavirus remain lost. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will probably keep the dovishness coming at their meeting tomorrow. Most people probably cannot trade USDCNY. However, gains in the currency have previously lifted Chinese Internet stocks like Alibaba and other members of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index . We entered 2020 expecting money to flow to China after global indexes were changed. Despite the pandemic, that process has been playing out as expected. Could it even accelerate into year end? TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
by TradeStation