Usd Chinese currency trend downUs dollas has formed a bad shape against chinese currency mainly due to lack of raising us rates in future,,,, for moment its down
USDCNY_TOD trade ideas
Quick update on CB rat raceAs you citizens can see we've found a mistake in our earlier analysis, we are apoligising for this. We think that during summer of 1998 Russian Federation stepped into fx trading big time and move cycles towards bigger and longer planning. So as you have guessed this is a game of sharade about who is planning longer and who is taking gaps. Thank you and see you later, have a good working week guests.
Summer 2025 prognosysAs it seems in this cold winter Chinese ecnomy has been overheated lately and come to a cold relax. Being world fabrique they hold the leadership in currency squable nevertheless USD, RUBLE, YEN, RUPEE and the rest of the world play their role in the nevertheless of the world markets holy place. Wee see June 2025 as the key uncompounded substance of what is going to happen. Feel free to enjoy out with our analysis and add yours in the middle of ours!
Currency scuffleAs you can see we prepared update for the currency agenda, we have added gd, jpy, rub, and inr to the fuse, as you can see fibonacci cycles stayed the same in the anbsence. We think or at least clearly see on a chart that rub was the most profitable currency available. In the later arrivals we will try to discover most profitable assets nominated in rubles and compare them to assets in other curencies. Feel free to read, analyse, comment and enjoy the party.
Yuan under controlOn the chart we have prepared you can see how yuan was the most hard currency to understand during first two cycles of liquidity squabbling. After this in 2009 USA started to develop a new paradigm ideal for currency fx trading. This was in the third fibonacci cycle of the Chinese brainwave. In the result 2015 was the groundbraking moment resulted in the volatility in the yuan. This has done a lot of noise and side effect in Federal Reserve Funds volatility cycles. Ergo sum is we're in the third fibonacci cycle of Federal Reserve Volatility and in the second fibonacci cycle of the Federal Reserve budgeting cycle. And as you san see analysing ATR yuan is in tears. Please read analyse and comment dear citizen.
USDCNY Strong Support on the Channel UP and 1D MA50.USDCNY is extending the strong bullish pattern inside the nine month Channel Up. The neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.450, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 34.492) indicates that the current level is a good buy opportunity, especially since the 1D MA50 holds. A crossing under the 1D MA100 however invalidates the bullish trend. Until then, we are long aiming at the 2.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 7.4850).
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USDCNY Topped on Head & Shoulders or Channel Up extension?It has been long since we last traded the USDCNY pair (May 2023), that gave a solid short-term buy break-out signal (chart below):
The trend has broken aggressively inside a long term Channel Up, which recently broke above the 7.3300 Resistance but only marginally. It stands out that the Resistance breach was made on the Head of a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. If Resistance 1 (7.3300) breaks again, then this pattern gets invalidated and we will expected a test of the dotted line at 7.4000.
On the other hand, a break below Support 1 (7.2450) but more importantly the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that has been supporting since April 19 2023, would be a sell signal towards Support 2 (7.1225) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice that the 1D RSI has been trading below a Lower Highs trend-line and on the H&S Head made the most recent contact. A similar RSI pattern can be seen in 2022, whose price action also formed a H&S pattern that was eventually a big sell signal.
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Where USDCNY is headed could be alot higher than expected. Where USDCNY is headed could be alot higher than expected. Since it's inversely correlated to Bitcoin I wonder what will see now that it's breaking resistances, will it bounce on what has now turned support or will it plunge back into the range without completing wave 5..With the bounce from the begining of he year I wouldn't be surprised here to see USDCNY rip higher.
No one wants mainland Renmibi.3 month chart. Broke major trend line and continues to print down. My hypothesis is that no one wants to hold mainland currency due to potential domestic economic issues.
Chinese Yuan Price Action Setting Up For a Potential CollapseWe have a huge Void below us and the Yuan has Rallied away from this Void before, but it appears to now be making a Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on Both the RSI and MACD; If the Yuan Breaks Below the B point of this Potential Crab BAMM which also happens to be The Confirmation Line of what would then also be a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern, we will very likely then see Downwards Acceleration Towards the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Below to Complete the Harmonic Pattern
USD/CNYFX_IDC:USDCNY Price is at a tough spot and I should wait to make a guess. Price could break out of the triangle and retest the resistance zone(I didn't mark it but it will be the last high)before it shoots up -OR it will come back down to the daily support and continue in the range. All I can say for now is that I'm watching to see if a "death cross" will form from the 200 ema and the 20 ema.
10The Yuan will weaken to 10 against the dollar in Sept-Dec.
Structurally, the ratios very unambiguously point to this price target.
Timing-wise, it will almost certainly coincide with the crash in Treasuries that is also due this fall.
USD/CNY ShortLook, no TA here more of an idea based around news that was just announced. China seems to be selling dollars here to prop up the value of their currency. According to the article:
"This adds to the earlier intervention efforts this week, with Reuters reporting that China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars again today in exchange for the yuan in the onshore market. One of the sources said that "the 7.25 level could be the floor (ceiling in the case for USD/CNY) in the near-term". -Forex/live
Now, I'm not taking this news at face-value. I am going to follow this idea as I think it's happening at an interesting time.
Yesterday many tech stocks (JD, BIDU, PDD, IQ, ZH) and ETFs (CQQQ, FXI, YINN) all showed long wick dojis.
I don't trade forex but this could be a development towards CNY gaining momentum which helps mitigate downward pressure on Asian markets.
I am long BABA starting yesterday and have a position in NIO from $8.60.
So yeah.... My idea: USDCNY red days have always correlated with HS (Hang Sang) up. Recently HS has been gaining momentum against the DXY moving up when normally it's inverse or near inverse 65% of the time. I think if we start to see CNY gain momentum, some of these tech stocks are really going to start moving.
Too many bears on China right now, news article after news article. Might be the time to make a contrarian trade.
USD/RMB analysisThere has been much talk lately on the Chinese yuan (RMB) dethroning the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency within the next decade or so.
I have been analysing the chart of USD/RMB from an Elliot wave's perspective to assess the possibility of that occurring.
In my analysis, the pair USD/RMB has completed the running flat pattern (W) and is currently on the 'c' wave of the zigzag pattern (abc). The orange box, in the 8 region, is the target price of the (X) wave. This is followed by a retracement in the form of a triangle or flat (Y) and will bring the pair down to the low end of the 7 region as depicted in the chart.
The Y pattern can be viewed as a consolidation phase for the pair before rallying higher. It took 5 years to complete the W pattern. One would then expect a similar timeframe for the Y pattern.
I will label the corrective pattern (W) flat, (X) zigzag, (Y) flat or triangle, as a running double three pattern, with the possibility of the end of wave 2 higher than that of wave 1.
I reckon that USD will gain from strength to strength against the RMB in the years to come, though it will not be in a linear form. As such, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese yuan will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next decade, let alone in the foreseeable future. IMHO.
USDCNYA negative harmonic pattern and a negative diver indicate that the price will decrease after reaching the resistance
If U.S. Treasuries Default: Market and Bitcoin Implications Authors: SanTi Li, & NaXi Da
U.S. Treasury yield, long considered as a risk-free rate (R0) for value computations and future valuations as per materials like the CFA curriculum, bears nearly zero risk in the financial landscape. However, what happens if this supposedly risk-free asset becomes risky? A U.S. Treasury default would have vast ramifications on the global economy and financial markets.
Let's analyze the potential impacts on liquidity, the U.S. dollar value, and Bitcoin's value:
Liquidity:
U.S. Treasuries, globally accepted as secure assets, constitute the cornerstone of the global financial system. A U.S. default could lead to a confidence crisis in U.S. Treasuries, prompting large-scale selling and potentially a liquidity crisis. This crunch could trigger a plunge in asset prices, escalate financial market volatility, and exacerbate the global financial crisis.
U.S. Dollar Value:
The U.S. dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency. A U.S. Treasury default could erode global confidence in the dollar, depreciating its value. Still, a market panic might trigger asset sell-off, driving the dollar demand up. Simultaneously, investors could seek refuge in other 'safe haven' assets such as gold or other strong currencies, mitigating dollar depreciation to some extent.
Bitcoin Value:
The secondary market value of Bitcoin is influenced by numerous factors, including market sentiment, consensus, BRC standard popularity, attitudes of governments, regulatory policies, technological developments, and application convenience and degree. If a U.S. default occurs, Bitcoin might respond in two disparate ways:
● Positive Impact: If investors look for non-traditional 'safe haven' assets like gold and silver, and the world requires a new, relaxed reservoir to absorb decompressed funds, Bitcoin's demand and value might increase in the medium to long term.
● Negative Impact: Bitcoin's high volatility and risk could drive investors away during market panic, decreasing its value. Therefore, Bitcoin's reaction would largely depend on market sentiment and investor risk appetite.
Implications on the Global Economy and Trade:
A U.S. Treasury default could precipitate a global recession, or even a deeper economic crisis. It could also impair the credit of the U.S. dollar, disrupting global trade. Exporters to the U.S. might face diminished orders, while importers of U.S. goods and services might encounter higher prices.
Potential Restructuring of the Global Financial System:
A U.S. default could lead to a reevaluation of the dollar-based global financial system, potentially allowing other currencies, especially the yuan, to play a more prominent role in the future global financial system. This could also fast-track the global acceptance of digital currencies and blockchain technology.
Risk Assets Value Volatility:
A U.S. bond default might result in significant volatility in the value of risk assets such as stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets.
In theory, three scenarios could lead to a U.S. bond default - debt ceiling issues, government shutdown, and policy errors. However, extreme 'black swan' scenarios such as external shocks and political conflicts could also lead to default.
In conclusion, while a U.S. default is highly unlikely, if it occurs, it would have a profound impact on the global financial system. Despite initial potential negativity towards emerging digital industries like blockchain and cryptocurrencies, they may encounter new opportunities in the long run. This would especially be the case if the U.S. dollar's status as a settlement currency is challenged. This could increase demand for Bitcoin and accelerate the transformation of global trade methods.
However, it is critical to note that the thoughts expressed above are intended for long-term thinking, discussion, and learning, and should not be construed as investment advice.
However, the probability of an event with a similar magnitude happening is not necessarily low. The exact timing and suddenness of such events are difficult to predict, hence the importance of having risk control and defensive mechanisms in place to be prepared for any situation.
Twitter: @santili1021
USDCNY Approaching a 2 month Resistance on overbought RSI.It's been a long time see we last traded the USDCNY pair (see chart below) but it was a long-term trade that very precisely hit the both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA100 (red trend-line) targets:
After the January 16 rebound, the pair former a Channel Up and currently the price is approaching the 6.9785 Resistance. The 1D RSI got overbought on Friday for the first time since February 24. If it closes a 1D candle above Resistance 1, we will buy and target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up at 7.0500. Until then we will sell those overbought indicators and target the 1D MA50 on the short-term and if it closes below the Inner Higher Lows, then sell more towards the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below Support 1, then long-term sell targeting Support 2 at 6.7000.
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Usd Yuan trend upDollar has got a long term down on yuan however now things might be changing in china...dollar stronger on way
USA vs. ChinaA new and dangerous phase of relations between China and America can bring a lot of problems for the world economy and not only.
After the removal of restrictions on the coronavirus, China opened up and became accessible to the world economy again. Everyone was waiting for this event and hopefully expected that the global crisis would end and new growth would begin, but China is not so simple.
Tensions between China and the rest of the world are only growing , because China sees the weakness of America and Europe, in addition, China feels pressure from America, which does not want to put up with a new big rival and wants to destroy it.
America is not ready to just give away the title of economy No. 1.
President XI has won the election again and is hostile to America, which means a difficult future for the countries' economic relations.
Xi is starting to establish contacts with neighbors and with political allies. Xi's recent meeting with Putin confirmed the strength and cohesion of China and other countries.
In response, America is trying to restrain China by force, increasing military tension in the Asian region. America imposes strict restrictions on products from China, while not yet able to replace vital parts, America is trying to build new production in other countries.
In turn, China is increasing military spending and is not going to give up power in Asia, demanding to take its hands off Taiwan.
All this leads to possible conflicts and a downturn in the economy.
A drop in global GDP to an alarming 7% is possible.
Last year, America imposed a ban on the sale of some semiconductors and equipment that is manufactured in China. This event increases the gap in the economies of both countries, because now not only China will not receive money, but the United States will not receive important components.
In the US Congress, a complete ban on TikTok is on the agenda. This platform generates billions of dollars and its complete closure will lead to big problems.
As noted in a recent article by Alan Wolf, Robert Lawrence and Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the growing hostility to trade in the United States risks negating the achievements of the last nine decades of extremely successful policy.
A new World Bank book highlights that the long-term prospects for global economic growth are deteriorating. One of the reasons is the slowdown in global trade growth after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, exacerbated by the turmoil after the Covid pandemic and the rise of protectionism. Among other things, as noted in the book, trade “is one of the main channels for the dissemination of new technologies.” In addition, it should be noted that a more protectionist world will have a lower elasticity of supply and, consequently, a greater propensity to inflationary shocks.
From all sides, countries are trying to aggravate the situation. Chinese investment in the US economy is at a minimum, investments from the US are no longer directed to China.
China, in turn, wants to make the yuan the number one currency and create a union within which all payments will not be made in dollars.
All this can have a detrimental effect on the dollar.
The future is foggy as never before.
The US is printing more and more money, causing more and more problems.
China is a dangerous rival that is gaining strength.
What will happen next? What do you think?
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
USDCNY Chinese Yuan will strengthenOne significant challenge to the US dollar's dominance in the global economy is the growing trend of de-dollarization. Many countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar for international trade, investment, and other financial transactions.
One reason for this trend is the use of economic sanctions by the US government to contain geopolitical threats. The US government has used economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy, often targeting countries that pose a perceived threat to US national security interests. These sanctions can prevent countries from trading with sanctioned nations or accessing the US financial system, which can have a significant impact on their economies.
As a result, many countries are seeking to de-dollarize to avoid the systemic risk of being sanctioned or losing access to the US financial system. For example, nations like Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, and Iran have agreed to trade using the Chinese Yuan, especially in trading oil and gas. This move to alternative currencies like the Chinese Yuan could reduce the demand for the US dollar and weaken its value in the global economy.
Furthermore, the Chinese government has taken significant steps to strengthen the international role of the Chinese Yuan. For example, they have established currency swap agreements with over 30 countries, allowing for the direct exchange of currencies without the need for the US dollar as an intermediary. Additionally, China has established the Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure development project in Asia, Europe, and Africa. This initiative is expected to significantly increase the use of the Chinese Yuan in international trade and investment, further weakening the dominance of the US dollar.
Another significant factor weakening the US dollar is QE infinity, which has resulted in the inflation of the dollar and the destabilization of the US economy, apparent in the series of bank failures. The US Federal Reserve's ability to print dollars ad infinitum, without causing significant inflation, has been supported by the Petro-dollar system. This system required nations wishing to buy oil or gas to purchase dollars in the past, which strengthened the dollar. However, as more countries de-dollarize, the demand for the US dollar in oil and gas transactions could decline, which could weaken the US dollar's value.
Moreover, the US dollar's value has also been supported by the notion that the US has a deep taxpayer base and the strongest military. Nations leaving the dollar could put pressure on the US to increase taxation to compensate for the loss of revenue from the Petro-dollar system. Additionally, any significant losses in US military conflicts could have a disastrous impact on the US dollar's value, as the US military is seen as a symbol of US strength and security.
In conclusion, de-dollarization is a growing trend in the global economy that poses a significant challenge to the dominance of the US dollar. Countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar to avoid being sanctioned and to reduce their exposure to the risks of the US financial system. The trend towards de-dollarization is likely to continue, which could weaken the value of the US dollar in the global economy. The US dollar's value is also being challenged by factors such as QE infinity, the potential decline of the Petro-dollar system, and the risks to US military strength and taxation revenue. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan is expected to strengthen as China takes steps to increase its international role and influence, potentially weakening the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy even further.
In terms of technical analysis of USDCNY, it appears that the Yuan will strengthen, indicating that US efforts to support the dollar will fail. USDCNY has dropped below its range resistance and retested it, a pattern known as a "fakeout" above a key level. This pattern has previously resulted in USDCNY reaching a bottom of the range at 6.3. The clear pattern of a "fakeout" above a key level in USDCNY suggests that the dollar will fail to hold its range support, as previously predicted in the idea of the DXY dollar index.
The possibility of DXY bouncing off its support is less likely than breaking below its support, as DXY is in a descending channel. If DXY were to rise, so would USDCNY, but the range support for USDCNY has now turned into resistance, from which it has already been rejected. Furthermore, the descending channel of USDCNY provides additional resistance to an upward move.
If this analysis proves to be accurate, it would once again confirm the maxim that "all news is in the chart."
USD vs CNY US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan Q1 Currency War Thoughts!The Background & Info:
At the end of Q1 we have seen the usual crazy headline packed news cycle that we all have become accustomed to since 2020. Strange news, wars, meme realities and conspiracy vindication are now the new normal. You might have missed it in the news cycle, due to all the chaos, but the Chinese Yuan ( CNY ) has made some HUGE waves throughout the world by announcing the settlement of Saudi Arabia's purchase of gas from Russia. It appears that China is taking a page out of the USA playbook by being seen on the international stage trying to broker peace in a proxy war it appears to be funding in a foreign land, aggressively disrespecting nations borders with its airspace violations and spy equipment and, if all that was not enough of a copy cat move, they now have moved forward with courting Saudi Arabi into its BLOC countries that have agreed to swap their trade settlements from the USD to the CNY .
It appears Long gone are the days of China shouting threats from the confines of the Forbidden City ( not Forbidden Garden ) walls. They now seem to be taking center world stage and with the Ukraine war and the Saudi Arabia agreement. This will allow them to continue their campaign of world influence peddling and open the doors of Europe to them as a proxy negotiator for Russian Oil & Gas as well as alternative trade settlement base, military assistance, and other one off trade alliances. Truly a wolf in sheep's clothing is now knocking on the doors of Eastern Europe. Europe is one of the few areas of the globe that China currently does not have a good foot in the door. In Africa and the Middle East they own the majority of rare earth mineral rights & mines, In Asia and America they control the tech and manufacturing sectors. Now they are taking on Global Policing and Influence that will lead them into Europe in 2024.
Is this the END of the US Dollar being the currency of the world's economy? How is the Chinese Yuan stacking up against the US Dollar today? Well....
What does the Chart Say:
My charts are telling me that historically the USD is a powerhouse and has had MANY moments of retracement while maintaining a VERY bullish uptrend. Support is EVERYWHERE for the USD and the world economy understands better than we the citizens do, that USA policy and leadership change every 4-8 years. The recent gains of the Chinese CNY BLOC should have crippled the USD but instead it merely dipped it back to the mid range of its upward bullish trading channel.
SUMMARY:
I would refuse to bet against the USD and I don't see any significant trading opportunities arising from this over the short term. However, if the Chinese continue to play the world police and peace broker on the world stage then other countries and other settlements will strengthen the BLOC alliance and that WILL have a noticeable effect on how the USDCNY trades. I would suspect that IF more significant trade partners join the BLOC and China continues its mature world stage presence, that the USDCNY would end up looking to trade between 5.5-6.25 this time in 2024. But if the USA gets back to world leadership, makes a strong presence felt on the world stage, then I would look for USDCNY to continue is current trading channel and its bullish uptrend.
THIS is just me documenting my own thoughts on the matters at hand. Do your own Research.
