USDCRC trade ideas
USDCRC LongEl escenario es claro, EUROBONOS y Aguinaldos botaron el precio para buscar caza de Stops en USDCRC, gente comprando desde el 2018 y antes, que ahora ven en negativo su balance, entran en panico y prefieren cambiar sus USD por colones, Banco Central compra toda esa liquidez y con la crisis fiscal, pago de deuda de Eurobonos, extensiones de prestamos y demas ineptitudes e ineficiencias del gobierno, el TDC mostrara un USD al alza, por lo que ahorita es un excelente momento para comprar.
#USDCRC it seems that something is about to happenCurrently getting close to the now feel like psychological level of 583.25 colones it seems that its going to reach it pretty soon, about a week. I also expect the level to be rejected and move down to complete the descending wedge. In this scenario I'm thinking the last chance to buy while it is cheap is prior December the 10th. Another possible scenario is after November the 19th it will hit the trend line of the descending wedge and once again by external pressure recover over the 583 colones level in the coming days, while that would be the official end of the descending wedge I think that it will fail to pass the 575 colones and fall back to the trend line where it should then move heading the 562 colones level and once that is complete it would very much create a new move (looking possible the 589 colones level next, possibly very abruptly).
#USDCRC what will happen next?Weekly view indicates that eve after managing to get out of the descending wedge towards the upward trend or a new move could possibly get fire and started, I believe it will just slowly move back towards the 562.41 CRC monthly support level. The key daily level I was looking at this move and hoping that it would in reality be tested and gained was around 583.25 CRC which in fact was tested but never gained (at least for now).
The current situation seems that a break of the weekly level of 575.17 CRC will try to retest the 583.25 or move heading the bottom of 562.41 CRC. I truly believe the most viable move would be get into an accumulation phase near the 562.41 CRC level. From the chart and technical perspective the economy has not recovered yet and there is not need to buy more USD that might push the price up. This all will have to chance by the last week of November since most of the companies need to get their hands money to pay salaries and the yearly bonus salary called aguinaldo.
USDCRC pair is set for a recoveryAfter testing the bottom of the wedge around 562.5 colones it makes total sense that it will get started in its recovery.
One year ago around August 20th the level was about the same, this has been a common pattern to end the year. The reason behind this has to do with a increase in purchases and more money flooding the economy as the year ends. Many company owners that pay in USD need to get more USD in order to pay their employees. The government also makes the loan payments from international lenders and that also pushes the price up. The fiscal year ends in September and that is also part of why there is more money in the government hands and so the pressure to buy USD is higher. I do not really think the price will go any where lower than this and so its the perfect time to get myself some cheap
USD to make some payments for the end of the year.
USDCRC pair, knowing the gameIts been almost a year since it was so low, in the local economy you are suppose to be happy as with less hard earned colones you will get more dollars and given that it is almost 50 colones difference its something like a 10% discount in dollars. From the financial sector that the country benefits the most which are closely related with tourism there is a downside as tourists will see their funds not allowing them to do as much as before, I can also see how the down fall should push the prices down in the future if it keeps going like that as many other things that drives economy should follow as it is fuel. The only problem that I'm seeing from this is that it can be sustained over time as it most likely will come back to _normal_ levels which are for now at 600 ish colones. The advantage of earning USD is the inflation is controlled most likely by the exchange rate which for now has been playing against me as I get the same amount of USD per month but they are worth less colones a month. I tend to save USD for the long term which means this is a very unique opportunity to see this 10% discount and generally speaking I don't expect the colones appreciate over time because it can only mean 1 of the following things: there will be a recession from the US or the country economy is doing amazing, which to be honest the first is the most likely scenario to happen.
#USDCRC keeps falling downThe move should keep on going down within the descending channel towards the weekly levels of 575 and 568 and will most likely test the monthly support level of 562 which is really a psychological level in terms that its been a long while since #USDCRC pair last traded that low. If the 562 monthly level is tested and rejected a new move will probably start and a possible accumulation phase will start. I do not really see the pair going lower than 562 level because the next support level will be at 521 which is very far away from what it has been trading in the past 3 years.
#USDCRC pair, long position opportunityThis is one of those rare cases where the #USDCRC pair is placed in a position that will get you some profit no matter what happens. Currently it is moving downwards towards the 583 level it will meet a trend and possibly break towards an accumulation phase that will try to get back to the monthly level of 589. If the move cannot keep the trend and keeps falling within the wedge the lower possible price will be around 575 and then recover to the trend line above the 583 level. The other possible scenario is once it manages to reach the 589 level is the test the 609 weekly level which was the previous high level. Accordingly to the economic situation it is very likely that the #USDCRC pair will end up around 650 level so this is the last chance to buy at this lower levels.
USDCRC THIS IS NOT A MAJOR PAIR. JUST MY COUNTRY PAIRI reserved my comments because this is not a major pair. Only my prediction on my country pair.
Bless
