USD/DKK 1H Chart: Pair suggests breakoutIt might be said that USD/DKK is trading in three channels simultaneously. The most prominent one has confined the rate in a downward-sloping movement since early December, 2016, as apparent on the daily chart. The two most recent ones were formed late in August (as a new up-wave) and September. Meanwhile, the rate tested the upper boundary of the long-term channel earlier this week.
However, the diminishing trading range of the medium ascending channel suggest that the US Dollar might still test the 6.31/6.32 area, supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, prior to dashing through the upper boundaries of the senior and most junior channels.
The upward target could be the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 at 6.3822. Even if this surge does not occur right away, the rate being located near its three-year low at 6.1588 could pressure the rate for a surge in the medium or even long term.
USDDKK trade ideas
USD/DKK positioned southThe US Dollar is trading in two patterns simultaneously against the Danish Krone. The senior formation is a four-week channel up. In addition, the Greenback has entered a minor consolidation phase, thus forming a descending triangle.
All indications point to a possible fall in the hourly and daily time-frames, starting from technical indicators and ending with descending triangle being a bearish pattern. Likewise, the rate has already reached the upper channel boundary.
The rate still managed to realise the small upside potential up to the 6.26 mark due to a sudden surge. However, the Greenback is expected to allay this bearish sentiment and reverse to the downside, thus moving below a cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 6.25. The nearest bottom limit is the weekly S1 at 6.1923.
LONG USDDKK DURING STERILIZATION BY CENTRAL BANKSAfter hitting the lower medium term band for 15 % width of band as permitted by the monetary policy, the Danish central bank and the FED undertake market sterilization to slower the strengthening of DKK in the market to match the economic and financial stability bands. Accordingly, long the market sterilization (short term band) is recommendable to as follows:
Long at 6.32
Stop loss at 6.25
Target T1. 6.54 T2. 6.67
Duration: 1-2 months, may longer subject to sterilization performance
Risk management:
After the USDSEK moves to upward and breaking the 6.40 manage the stop loss to entry rate for risk-free trading position management.
Note:
The performance of this analysis could be followed continuously by clicking the chart then the > to evaluate the correctness of this analysis, to include to update any updates that may be made on this analysis during the long period.
USD/DKK 4H Chart: Channel DownUSD/DKK 4H Chart: Channel Down
The American Dollar is losing value against the Danish Krone in a three week long descending channel.
Formation of the pattern began shortly after the Greenback depreciated by 1.55% on June 27.
In the second half of the yesterday’s trading session the currency exchange rate has bounced off from the channel’s bottom trend-line, which was additionally protected by the weekly S2 at 6.4315.
Most probably, and impulse given by this combined support level will be strong enough to guide the pair though the weekly S1 at 6.4585.
Unless no fundamental events will happen, the surge is expected to continue until the pair reaches a combined resistance level, which will be set up by that time by the 55-period SMA and the weekly PP at 6.4996.
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Falling WedgeThe US Dollar has been weakening against the Danish Krone since February, thus forming a falling wedge. The given pattern has been valid for several months now, which indicates that its maturity may be reached soon. This assumption is supported by the fact that the US Dollar is gradually moving towards a two-year low at 6.4040. This level may eventually turn into a point of reversal, thus setting the Greenback towards the upper channel boundary. Taking into account the fact that falling wedge is a continuation patter, the rate may not halt at the upper channel boundary, but instead continue to edge even higher. Immediate support is provided by the aforementioned low, while resistance is set by the monthly S1 at 6.4413.
USD/DKK 1D Chart: Channel DownThe American Dollar is losing value against the Danish Krone in a medium-term descending channel. Formation of the channel began after the currency pair broke the support line of the preceding long-term descending channel in the result of the sharp depreciation of the Dollar between May 11 and 16.
By this moment, the rate has made two confirmations from the top and only one from the bottom, which means that the pattern has not reached the maturity yet. From a technical perspective, the slip to the bottom boundary of the pattern is expected to follow.
However, the first days of July or the last two green candles showed that the pair has made a premature rebound. If the next two-three days will attest this transformation, it would be possible to consider falling wedge, as a new guiding pattern.
But such scenario is doubtful because if the pair managed to rebound without any meaningful barriers on its way, then even more it has to bounce off from the combined resistance level set up by the weekly and monthly PP at 6.5546 and 6.5659. In such situation two scenarios are likely to follow.
If it succeeds to bypass this barrier, that in accordance with the characteristics of the falling wedge and taking into account the way the pair moved previously, it is expected to break though the upper trend-line of the channel somewhere in the second half of July.
If a correction occurs and it fails to break through this cellar, the rate is expected to drop until the bottom trend-line of the channel, which is supported by the combination of the monthly and weekly S1 at 6.4526 and 6.4413. In this case, a rebound is expected to follow as well. Firstly, because the pressure coming from this support level is quite strong. Secondly, because this contact will represent only second confirmation point. And, usually, we need at least two reaction highs and lows to only confirm an existence of the channel (not speaking about its upcoming breaking).
Possible Elliot Triple Combo formation occurance on USD/DKKAs you can see in the 1 hr timeframe, you'll see a downward trend emerging in a WXYXZ pattern with the Z hopefully play part in the formation.
Also drawn on the chart was a green support zone which indicates the market moving to the uptrend as the previous candles are touching this support line approximately 4-5 times.
This gives me enough indication that the market will hit to the upward and rally on until it hits the Z formation of the pattern and begins to downtrend to continue on the pattern merged previously.
SL and Take Profits are all listed.