German CPI flatlines, eurozone CPI nextThe euro is up for an eighth consecutive day and has gained 2.4% during that time. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1738, up 0.36% on the day.
German inflation data on Monday pointed to a weakening German economy. The CPI report indicated that the deflationary process slowly continues. The inflation rate for June came in at 0% m/m, down from 0.1% in May and below the consensus of 0.2%. Annually, inflation dropped to 2.0% from 2.1% and below the consensus of 2.1%. The eurozone releases its CPI report on Tuesday.
Inflation has been dropping in small increments and has now fallen to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2%. The ECB cut the deposit rate to 2.0% earlier in June and meets next in July. Although eurozone inflation is largely contained, there are concerns about the impact that US tariffs and counter-tariffs by US trading partners could have on the inflation picture. The ECB is likely to maintain rates in July but could lower rates in September if disinflation continues.
The US continues to show signs that the economy is slowing down. Last week, GDP was revised downwards to -0.5% in the first quarter. This was followed by US consumer spending for May (PCE) which posted a 0.1% decline, following a 0.2% gain in April and shy of the consensus of 0.1%. This was the first contraction since January. If economic data continues to head lower, pressure will increase on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which isn't expected before the September meeting.
EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1755. Above, there is resistance at 1.1791
1.1718 and 1.1682 are the next support levels
USDEUR trade ideas
ERUSUD: BookMost of us read books on FX trading, hopefully, we can pick up something new, something useful. All the books I had read to date are not useful. I think common sense tells me to forget about them.
But lucky me, I think one book stands out. Written by a nobody. But the method is quite original. His name is Gabriele Fabris. I bet none of you have heard of him or his method.
If I had applied his method to trading EURUSD, the win rate would not be favourable, but his core argument is to make use of time when it matters the most. This provides the basis to understand price movement better. With a bit of research and refinement, it is indeed very useful. Much better than the usual ABCD.
ABCD tells us WHERE and WHEN. It does not tell us the WHY. Which is why when the price reaches the 'D', we can only hope it bounces instead of pushing through.
WHY is the key - I think knowing the intention of the MARKET is crucial - better to let the market reveal itself, then trade along with it. I think the back testing looks good.
Let's see if this method can correctly 'predict' the WHEN, WHERE, and WHY price will pivot this time. It is a long way down.
Good luck.
#AN011: NATO Summit, 5% for Defense
Hello, I am Forex Trader Andrea Russo and after the NATO Summit meeting, I want to analyze the situation a bit. Remember that my opinions are strictly personal and what I say may not reflect your thoughts. I do not write with a political or personal ideology. I analyze the situation objectively.
I thank in advance our Official Partner Broker PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article.
🔍 Key points of the NATO Summit
Yesterday's NATO Summit in The Hague attracted global attention, with the 32 member countries committing to a strong increase in defense spending, with the goal of 5% of GDP by 2035, of which 3.5% for basic military spending and 1.5% for broader security measures, such as strengthening cybersecurity and infrastructure.
US President Trump praised the outcome as a "major victory" and stressed that increased spending would likely benefit US defense contractors, while reaffirming NATO's commitment to Article 5.
However, countries such as Spain have expressed concern, indicating that it could include military aid rather than pure budget increases.
📈 Financial Market Reaction
🔹 Defense & Aerospace Stocks
Major defense companies across Europe posted immediate gains:
Babcock (UK) +10.7%,
Rheinmetall (Germany) +3.1%,
Thales (France) +2%+,
Leonardo (Italy) +2.6%
🔹 Bond & Currency Action
According to KBC Bank market commentary:
The bond market steepened bearishly, particularly in Europe, as governments are reassessing their fiscal balances to accommodate defense budgets.
The US dollar remained strong, supported by dovish Fed expectations, countering the spike in bond yields.
🌍 Currency Market Implications
EUR/USD:
The momentum of a dovish Fed and US fiscal pressure could support the dollar. However, divergence in bond yields could support moderate euro strength if the ECB remains cautious.
EUR-linked currencies (e.g. SEK, NOK):
These could come under pressure from rising risk premia and possible increase in government bond issuance.
JPY and CHF:
Likely to benefit from high volatility and safe-haven flows amid geopolitical tensions.
🧭 Strategic Outlook
Theme Market Impact
Increased defense spending Supports government bonds, increases government bond yields.
Fiscal tightening Increases credit risk premia.
US defense dominance Strengthens the USD in the short to medium term.
Geopolitical unity Strengthens investor confidence, mitigates risk-off tendencies.
📝 Conclusion
NATO summit signals a geopolitical shift that extends to currency and credit markets. Forex traders should pay attention to:
Yield changes in the US versus Europe due to increased deficit financing.
Currency inflows into the US dollar on defense and risk themes.
Safe-haven demand if tensions in Russia-Ukraine or the Middle East flare up again.
Thanks a lot for making it this far. Stay tuned for more analysis.
EURUSDShorting EUR/USD means you expect the euro to weaken against the U.S. dollar. In other words, you believe the dollar will gain strength or the euro will lose value — or both.
Reasons traders might short EUR/USD:
• The U.S. economy is performing better than the eurozone.
• Interest rates are rising faster in the U.S. than in Europe.
• Political or economic instability in the eurozone.
• Investors seeking safety in the dollar during global uncertainty.
EUR/USD tests 20 EMA, Lower band of channelEUR/USD ran into resistance at 1.1630 before easing back below 1.15. However, EUR/USD continues to trade in its rising channel, holding above its 20 and 50 SMA for now. The RSI is pointing lower, suggesting momentum is losing steam.
Immediate support is at 1.1450, the 20 SMA, and the lower band of the rising channel is being tested following weak EZ PMIs and as the USD is the safe-haven of choice amid Middle East tensions. A break below here could open the door to 1.14 and 1.1280.
Buyers will look to rise back above 1.15 and 1.1580 to bring 1.1630 and fresh multi-year highs into focus.
FC
EUR-USD Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD made a nice bullish
Move up and has almost reached
A horizontal resistance level
Of 1.1631 and the pair is locally
Overbought so after the retest
A local bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR/USD Extends Rally – Watching Resistance at 1.18000Hi Everyone,
We anticipated a retest of the 1.17400 level coming into this week, setting the stage for further upside toward our highlighted targets at 1.17600 and 1.18000. Monday delivered, with a sharp move higher that saw EUR/USD break cleanly above 1.17400 and extend to 1.17600, bringing the 1.18000 level into focus.
As previously noted, we expect dynamic resistance around the 1.18000 area and will provide further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD should price test or breach this level.
The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend towards the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649.
We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support!
All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1555
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1608
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 1.1483
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market:
Core PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation.
PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft.
Unemployment Claims:
Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K
Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market.
Market Outlook :
These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move.
DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum .
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame .
EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
MY TCB STRATEGY🔍 Detailed Breakdown
✅ Trend Structure
1H and 4H trends are strongly bullish.
Clean higher highs and higher lows.
Momentum shows clear breakout from range on June 21–24.
🟦 EP1 Zone (1.1600–1.1615) – Minor Pullback
Risk: Price still within supply; not yet a confirmed retracement.
If entry is taken here, price must:
Form a bullish engulfing or low-timeframe FVG at the zone.
Hold above 1.1595 to remain valid.
✅ Good for momentum re-entry.
❗ Risk of getting trapped if deeper retracement (EP2) is needed.
🔲 EP2 Zone (1.1580–1.1600) – Optimal Confluence
Aligns with:
H4 trendline
Breaker block
Prior demand + FVG
If price pulls back here, it offers:
Best RR and lowest risk entry
Ideal setup for Set & Forget
✅ This is the premium zone for longs if price dips.
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.17250 – Previous high and clean liquidity magnet
TP2: 1.17530 – Next external liquidity (major high)
Both targets are realistic in bullish continuation scenario.
⚖️ Entry Comparison Table
Zone Entry Level Pros Cons R:R Est.
EP1 1.1610 Close to momentum, smaller pullback High risk of rejection/fakeout ~1:2
EP2 1.1585 Trendline + breaker + clean RR May not reach (missed entry risk) ~1:2.8+
🔔 Alerts Recommendation
1.1590: Buy alert for EP2 zone entry
1.1625: Bullish break confirmation
1.1545: Invalidation level (structure break)
🧠 TCBFlow Final Thought:
“EP1 is for aggressive traders. EP2 is for patient execution. The market owes you nothing – it only rewards precision.”
📊 Final Score
Setup Score %
EP1 7/10 70% ⚠️ Medium Confidence (Requires confirmation)
EP2 9/10 90% ✅ High Confidence (Best TCB zone)
🧠 Summary:
EP1 is early, momentum-based — only enter if you see strong bullish PA.
SET and FORGET
EP2 is clean, structured, and high-confluence — best suited for Set & Forget with minimum emotional interference.
EUR/USD 30-MIN ANALYSISThis EURUSD setup showcases a clean bullish continuation scenario following a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) and a sharp rally driven by momentum and liquidity imbalance.
After sweeping a key low (XXX), price impulsively broke structure to the upside, confirming a potential shift in market intent. A retracement is now expected to mitigate the Buy-Side Imbalance (BISI) zone.
BOS & SSS (Short-Term Structural Shift): Confirmed bullish intent.
Imbalance (BISI): Price left behind an unfilled imbalance zone a likely magnet for a pullback.
Re-Entry Zone: (BISI) provides a high probability area for long re-entry.
Upside Targets:
Target 1: 1.15483 – intermediate structural level.
Target 2: 1.16158 – premium supply / liquidity target.
#EURUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
EURUSD – 2 Potential Intraday Setups (5-Min Chart)Chart Overview:
This 5-min EURUSD chart shows two example trade setups aligned with the main uptrend. These are shared purely for learning how to recognize and plan structured entries.
(Details are being shown in m5 chart- if this in not working for you please follow to be able to see it- as it is a private idea)
🔹 Example Trade 1 – 3rd Touch of Triangle Support
✅ Context:
Price retested the lower boundary of a broad triangle/wedge for the third time—often a strong area for reactive buys in an uptrend.
✅ Plan Concept:
Entry: Reversal signal on the 3rd touch.
Stop: Below the signal bar low.
Target: Mid to upper wedge area (or TP2).
🔹 Example Trade 2 – Breakout of Descending Flag
✅ Context:
After bouncing off trendline support, price formed a descending flag consolidation.
✅ Plan Concept:
Entry: Break and close above flag resistance.
Stop: Below the strong breakout candle.
Target: Extension toward recent highs (or TP2).
💡 Important:
These examples are not signals and not executed trades—they illustrate a possible planning process for traders studying price action strategies.
💡 Why These Matter:
Both setups align with the primary uptrend, use clear structure for risk placement, and rely on confirmation before entry.
🔹 Note:
These are educational examples only, not trade signals.
💬 Do you study similar setups? Share your charts and thoughts!
Thanks for your attention and your time...
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#EURUSD #Forex #TradingEducation #PriceAction #IntradayTrading #BreakoutTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LearnTrading #TradingView
EURUSD Midweek Outlook | 3H - 15M Dual ViewLeft side chart shows the 3H Bird’s Eye structure — price swept the recent highs but failed to follow through, signaling external bull weakness. That shift in narrative tells me price may be prepping to drop, potentially targeting the SSL below before gathering fuel to attack major highs.
Right side zooms in on the 15M — I’m patiently watching for a clean lower high to break (CHoCH) followed by a pullback to confirm a sell entry. Until I get that proper LTF trigger, I stay on the sidelines. Execution always follows alignment.
Bias: Short
HTF Structure: 3H sweep of highs, showing weakness
LTF View: Waiting for 15M confirmation (break + retest)
Target: SSL below
Mindset Note: Trade what’s shown, not what’s felt. Stay sharp, stay patient.
Bless Trading!