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EURUSD 30M Engaged ( Bullish Entry's Detected )————- ➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸 Bullish Wave Coming From : 1.17250 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute. EURUSD 30M Engaged ( Bullish Entry's Detected )
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
15
#AN014: Ursula von der Leyen No Confidence Motion, Market Crisis Hello, I am Andrea Russo, a Forex trader and today I want to focus on an explosive news that has hit Brussels in the last 24 hours: the motion of no confidence against the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in carrying out this analysis. The fact: Motion of No Confidence in the European Parliament On July 1st, several MEPs from both conservative right and far left groups formally presented a motion of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen, accusing her of: Non-transparent agreements with Emmanuel Macron, Opaque management of the new “Pact for Europe”, Conditioning of key appointments within the Commission and the Council and above all the violation of the democratic principle of balance of powers. Although the motion does not seem to have the numbers to pass, it represents a direct attack on the political legitimacy of the outgoing president, just when she is trying to obtain a second term. The suspicion is that this move is not so much to bring down von der Leyen, but to: Weaken her negotiating position, Force her to make political concessions and reopen the game on the strategic EU appointments 2024–2029. This internal crisis comes at the worst possible time. A crisis of internal legitimacy in this context can undermine institutional stability and slow down all the economic reforms expected by the markets. Impact on Forex 1. EUR under pressure European political risk is back in the spotlight. Even if there was no immediate shock to the euro, institutional trading rooms are already pricing in more internal instability. This translates into: Downward pressure on EUR/USD, especially if the motion receives more votes than expected (even if it does not pass). EUR/CHF at risk of retracement, as the Swiss franc is seen as a safe haven currency in the event of EU institutional crises. EUR/GBP with potential loss of strength, especially if London takes advantage of the crisis to relaunch bilateral agreements. 2. Push for safe haven currencies JPY, USD and CHF have shown anomalous movements in the last few hours: political uncertainty is pushing traders to seek safe havens. The EUR/USD futures curve also shows a slight downward revaluation. 3. Upcoming events to monitor The real threat will be if the number of votes in favor of the no-confidence motion exceeds 30–35% of Parliament → in that case, even if the motion does not pass, von der Leyen will be delegitimized. The euro, in this case, could undergo a technical correction extended up to 1.0650, especially if accompanied by weak macro data. Follow me, if you like, for other updates.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
EUR/USD - Bullish Bias with Key S/R Level | TCB StrategyEUR/USD - Bullish Bias with Key Support and Resistance Levels | TCB Strategy Trend: The overall trend is bullish, with EUR/USD respecting an ascending channel. The market remains in a clear uptrend on higher timeframes, favoring long positions unless resistance is broken. Key Levels: Support: 1.1750–1.1770 (bullish bias if price holds here). Resistance: 1.1800–1.1820 (possible short if price fails to break). Action Plan: Long Setup: Look for a bullish reversal pattern near 1.1750–1.1770 (solid support). Targets: 1.1800–1.1820. Short Setup: If the price fails to break 1.1800–1.1820 and shows a rejection, consider a countertrend short targeting 1.1750. Breakout Setup: If 1.1820 is broken with momentum, look for a retest and continuation towards 1.1850–1.1900. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Below 1.1750 for long trades, above 1.1820 for short trades. Risk/Reward: Favorable 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio based on your setup. TCB Checklist Score: 83% Trend Setup: 10/10 Countertrend Setup: 7/10 Breakout Setup: 6/10 Risk Management: 9/10 Target Setting: 8/10 External Factors: 10/10 Overall Score: 50/60 = 83% Fundamental Backing for EUR/USD Bullish Bias: ECB vs. Fed Divergence: The Fed’s hawkish policy may be nearing its peak, while the ECB continues to tighten to combat inflation, favoring the euro over the USD. As the ECB remains more aggressive than the Fed, this could keep EUR/USD supported. U.S. Economic Data: If U.S. economic data continues to underperform (e.g., weaker GDP, jobless claims, or inflation reports), it would put downward pressure on the USD, supporting a bullish EUR/USD outlook. Eurozone Economic Resilience: The Eurozone has shown solid economic growth despite global challenges, with nations like Germany and France demonstrating resilience. This strengthens the EUR against a potentially weaker USD. Geopolitical Factors: While the Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing, the EU’s resilience to the energy crisis and the gradual improvement in global risk sentiment could support the euro in the medium-term. Global Risk Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment could benefit higher-yielding assets like the euro, especially against a USD that could face weakening pressures from an economic slowdown. This setup is solid but requires further confirmation. The bullish trend supports a long bias, but be alert to potential rejections at resistance or breakouts that could push EUR/USD higher. #EURUSD #TCBStrategy #ForexTrading #Breakout #TrendFollowing #Countertrend #TradingView #ForexAnalysis #RiskManagement #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSetup #BullishBias #ForexTraders
Long
by J1000PIPSfx
EURUSD M15 I Bearish Fall Based on the M15 chart, the price is testing our sell entry level at1.1798, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 1.17780 an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement. The stop loss is set at 1.1821, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
German CPI flatlines, eurozone CPI nextThe euro is up for an eighth consecutive day and has gained 2.4% during that time. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1738, up 0.36% on the day. German inflation data on Monday pointed to a weakening German economy. The CPI report indicated that the deflationary process slowly continues. The inflation rate for June came in at 0% m/m, down from 0.1% in May and below the consensus of 0.2%. Annually, inflation dropped to 2.0% from 2.1% and below the consensus of 2.1%. The eurozone releases its CPI report on Tuesday. Inflation has been dropping in small increments and has now fallen to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2%. The ECB cut the deposit rate to 2.0% earlier in June and meets next in July. Although eurozone inflation is largely contained, there are concerns about the impact that US tariffs and counter-tariffs by US trading partners could have on the inflation picture. The ECB is likely to maintain rates in July but could lower rates in September if disinflation continues. The US continues to show signs that the economy is slowing down. Last week, GDP was revised downwards to -0.5% in the first quarter. This was followed by US consumer spending for May (PCE) which posted a 0.1% decline, following a 0.2% gain in April and shy of the consensus of 0.1%. This was the first contraction since January. If economic data continues to head lower, pressure will increase on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which isn't expected before the September meeting. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1755. Above, there is resistance at 1.1791 1.1718 and 1.1682 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EUR/USD Fibonacci Support at Prior Resistance BounceEUR/USD has stretched the rally into the opening days of Q3 trade but at this point, the pair is overbought from both daily and weekly charts. On the weekly, RSI is nearing the 75 level and the last time the indicator was that high was back in January of 2018, just ahead of an almost 2,000 pip sell-off that ran for the next year and change. Overbought doesn't mean automatic reversal, but it does highlight an increasingly heavier load for bulls to carry as the market gets more and more one-sided. At this point structure on short-term charts remains bullish: The same Fibonacci retracement looked at last week has continued to carve highs and lows so far this week, with today's low showing at last week's high, around the 78.6% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move. If we do see sellers make a statement move into the end of the week, perhaps provoked by NFP or perhaps just driven by a short squeeze in the USD, then we'd have a weekly wick above that key Fibonacci level on the longer-term EUR/USD chart, and that's something that can start to set the stage for more attractive reversal themes. - js
by FOREXcom
EURUSD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Last time we analyzed the EURUSD pair (June 23, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signals at the bottom of the 1.5-month Channel Up: The price is almost near our Target but since it's been consolidating for so many 4H candles on the pattern's top, it is better to take the good profit and turn bearish. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been a solid target for the previous two Bearish Legs, but since the last one bottomed just above it on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we will place the Target a little higher this time also at 1.16100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EURUSD Expected Growth! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1774 Bias -Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 1.1792 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
#AN013: USD and AUD under pressure, Euro advances 1. India: New strategy on FX volatility The Indian Respondents' Bank (RBI) is allowing more volatility on the USD/INR exchange rate, prompting many companies to hedge with forward contracts. This is the highest level of coverage since 2020. We thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE who supported us in writing this article. FX Impact: Potential weakening of the rupee in the short term, but increased stability in the medium-long term. Volatility on USD/INR, EUR/INR, JPY/INR ? opportunities for carry trades and short-term shorts if the dollar strengthens. 2. Australia hit by extreme storms Severe storms hit New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria: 100 km/h winds, torrential rains and blackouts on over 30,000 homes. Australian economic sentiment pressured ? AUD weak. Opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD from a short perspective. Monitor agricultural and insurance developments ? risk of extended downside. 3. Iran: Fordow nuclear site severely damaged US strike hits Iranian nuclear site. In response, Iran has threatened to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil transport. Geopolitical volatility expected to rise. Increased flows to safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF and USD. Also impacting CAD and AUD due to oil ? risk of short-term upside but corrections if stalemate persists. 4. US $3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion Senate considering mega stimulus plan. This fuels fears of new debt ? dollar falls to 4-year low against euro. EUR/USD long strengthened (break above 1.17 already underway). GBP/USD and NZD/USD potentially in push. Risk of FED rate cut? increased volatility on dollar and bonds. Strategic Conclusion Recommended operations: long on EUR/USD, short on AUD/USD, long on USD/INR (only with confirmation). Watch out for the next 48 hours: possible spike on CHF, JPY and CAD. Institutional timing: probable fund inflows on EUR and USD in case of confirmed breakouts; stay ready but avoid front-running. Stay updated for other news.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
MY TCB STRATEGY🔍 Detailed Breakdown ✅ Trend Structure 1H and 4H trends are strongly bullish. Clean higher highs and higher lows. Momentum shows clear breakout from range on June 21–24. 🟦 EP1 Zone (1.1600–1.1615) – Minor Pullback Risk: Price still within supply; not yet a confirmed retracement. If entry is taken here, price must: Form a bullish engulfing or low-timeframe FVG at the zone. Hold above 1.1595 to remain valid. ✅ Good for momentum re-entry. ❗ Risk of getting trapped if deeper retracement (EP2) is needed. 🔲 EP2 Zone (1.1580–1.1600) – Optimal Confluence Aligns with: H4 trendline Breaker block Prior demand + FVG If price pulls back here, it offers: Best RR and lowest risk entry Ideal setup for Set & Forget ✅ This is the premium zone for longs if price dips. 🎯 Targets TP1: 1.17250 – Previous high and clean liquidity magnet TP2: 1.17530 – Next external liquidity (major high) Both targets are realistic in bullish continuation scenario. ⚖️ Entry Comparison Table Zone Entry Level Pros Cons R:R Est. EP1 1.1610 Close to momentum, smaller pullback High risk of rejection/fakeout ~1:2 EP2 1.1585 Trendline + breaker + clean RR May not reach (missed entry risk) ~1:2.8+ 🔔 Alerts Recommendation 1.1590: Buy alert for EP2 zone entry 1.1625: Bullish break confirmation 1.1545: Invalidation level (structure break) 🧠 TCBFlow Final Thought: “EP1 is for aggressive traders. EP2 is for patient execution. The market owes you nothing – it only rewards precision.” 📊 Final Score Setup Score % EP1 7/10 70% ⚠️ Medium Confidence (Requires confirmation) EP2 9/10 90% ✅ High Confidence (Best TCB zone) 🧠 Summary: EP1 is early, momentum-based — only enter if you see strong bullish PA. SET and FORGET EP2 is clean, structured, and high-confluence — best suited for Set & Forget with minimum emotional interference.
Long
by J1000PIPSfx
EURUSD Long, 02 JulyAsia Fill Trade Despite being inside a Daily Bearish OB, this trade is purely an Asia fill setup, so HTF bias is not heavily weighted here. We had clear 1m BOS and retrace into the 1m OB, right inside a 15m Decisional POI, backed by inverted hammer rejections on both EU and DXY. 📉 Entry: 1m OB after BOS 📊 Confluence: DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia 🎯 TP: Asia Low (1:3 RR) 🛡️ BE: 1.5RR or LTF BOS continuation Clean execution based on intraday logic & structure, with correlation as additional confidence.
Long
by sTax11
EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI📉 EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI, and Bearish Momentum Ahead Bias: Short / Sell Setup EUR/USD recently surged toward the 1.0750 zone sooner than expected, driven more by market optimism and speculative flows than solid fundamentals. Now, that optimism is starting to fade as data fails to back it up. Meanwhile, the potential U.S. tax reform proposal (Trump) and signs of renewed trade negotiations are helping shift sentiment back toward the U.S. dollar in the coming 10 days. --- 🇩🇪 German CPI – Neutral Print, But Bearish Implications Today's regional inflation figures across German states were mixed: States like Saxony and Baden-Württemberg showed slightly rising prices Others like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia showed declining YoY inflation Final national CPI due later today is unlikely to beat expectations meaningfully 🎯 Summary: A Neutral CPI Print No upside surprise → No support for EUR No major downside → No panic either --- 🧠 Why "Neutral" Data Can Still Be Bearish for EUR The market was hoping for a strong CPI to signal that ECB may pause rate cuts Neutral inflation = ECB may still lean dovish EUR rose on hope — but data offered no confirmation In financial markets, failed expectations often trigger stronger corrections than bad news. --- 🔍 Technical Overview: Price approaching strong supply zone near 1.0740 – 1.0760 RSI showing divergence on lower timeframes (H1) Structure on M15 suggests potential for lower highs Price stalling under resistance, with no bullish momentum follow-through --- 🎯 Trade Plan: Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.0730 – 1.0755 Stop Loss: Above 1.0775 Take Profit 1: 1.0630 Take Profit 2: 1.0600 Trigger: Break of M15 bearish structure or supply reaction --- 📌 Markets punish over-optimism more than fear. EUR/USD may correct lower as hopes of a strong CPI fade and macro flows tilt toward the USD.
Short
by mehrshad31
Euro Dollar, institutions are still bullish ($1.20 this summer?)There's one constant on the floating exchange market (Forex) this year, the US dollar is by far the weakest currency. It's the same scenario as the first months of Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017 repeating itself. The US President's stated aim is to give US exporters a competitive exchange rate. The Euro exchange rate is also being supported higher by a combination of fundamental factors, notably a relative catch-up of European assets against US stock market assets. It is the sum of these fundamentals that is enabling a well-constructed uptrend in the EUR/USD rate on FX this year 2025. A new monthly technical close was recorded on the evening of Monday June 30, and with technical resistances breached, it looks as if the euro-dollar rate is on course to reach $1.20 this summer. 1) A new monthly technical close (June technical close) continues to support the euro-dollar's annual uptrend The June technical close has been in place for the euro-dollar since the start of the week, providing further bullish chart confirmation. The euro-dollar price has confirmed that it has broken through a descending resistance line in place since the 2008 financial crisis. The price is converging with its momentum (represented here by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators) and the next natural technical target lies at $1.20. This is a technical target for the summer, bearing in mind that in the short term, a move back towards support at $1.15 and $1.17 remains possible. The chart below shows monthly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the Ichimoku, RSI and LMACD technical indicators 2) Institutional traders are still bullish on the euro-dollar rate, according to the CFTC's COT report What's most interesting about the overall analytical approach is the convergence between technical analysis signals and institutional positioning signals on the EUR/USD rate. According to the CFTC's COT (Commitment Of Traders) report, institutional traders (hedge funds + asset managers) became net buyers of the euro dollar at the start of 2025, and weekly updates of this positioning data show that their buying exposure is increasing as the EUR/USD price rises. This bullish convergence between chartism and institutional investor positioning lends credibility to a scenario that would see the euro dollar reach resistance at $1.20 this summer. This market view would be invalidated if support at $1.14 were broken. The two charts below show institutional traders' positions on Euro Dollar futures. Institutional traders were predominantly bullish at the start of the year, and month after month, they are increasing their buying exposure. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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by Swissquote
EURUSD: focus on jobs dataThe major macro data for this week, the PCE indicator, was posted on Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, Feds favorite inflation gauge, increased by 0,1% in May, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. The core PCE was a bit higher than anticipated, at the level of 0,2% for the month and 2,7% for the year. A bit surprising figures came from Personal Income in May, which dropped by -0,4%, while the Personal Spending was down by -0,1% in May. Analysts are noting that implemented trade tariffs are slowly beginning to reflect in the personal spending of the US citizens. Also, this sort of potential development was noted by the Fed during the last two FOMC meetings. The rest of posted macro data for the US included the Existing Home Sales in May reached 4,03M, which was an increase of 0,8% on a monthly basis. This was significantly above the market estimate of -1,3%. The Durable Goods Orders in May were higher by 16,4%, surpassing the market estimate of 8,5%. The GDP Growth Rate final for Q1was standing in a negative territory of -0,5% for the quarter, and was higher from market expectation of -0,2%. The end of the week brought University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures final for June, which was standing at 60,7 and was in line with estimates. The Inflation Expectations were a bit higher from the previous estimate, ending the June with expected 5% inflation, while the market was expecting to see 5,1%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany was standing at the level of 49, while the same index for the Euro Zone reached 49,4. Both indicators were in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in June reached 88,4, in line with market estimates. The GfK Consumer Confidence in July was at the level of -20,3, a bit higher from estimated -19,3. The eurusd was traded with a bullish sentiment during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1460 and continued toward the upside for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level at 1,1741 was reached in Friday's trading session. The RSI reached the clear overbought market side as of the end of the week, at the level of 71. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near. The market favored the euro during the last two weeks. It comes as a result of insecurity when it comes to potential negative impact of implemented trade tariffs, which are slowly revealing in the US economy. The week ahead brings more jobs data, including JOLTs, NFP and unemployment rate, which will shape the investors sentiment. Some increased volatility might be ahead. The resistance level at 1,17 has been clearly tested during the previous week, and it will mark the beginning of the week ahead. The RSI is pointing to a higher probability of a short term reversal in the coming period, which might occur in the week ahead, impacted, most probably, by jobs data. In case of a reversal, the level of 1,1620 might easily be the next target. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability of a further move above the 1,17 level, however, the market might spend some time here, before a decision to make further move. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Retail Sales in May in Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary in June for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in June in Germany, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in June, JOLTs Job Openings in May, Non-farm Payrolls in June, Unemployment rate in June, Average Hourly Earnings and Spending, ISM Services PMI in June
by XBTFX