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Holiday Trading Update: Christmas Eve Market Overview.As we approach Christmas Eve, it's important to note the shortened trading hours in the US. The stock market will close early at 1 PM, while the US bond market will close at 2 PM. Currency Market Overview The USD is showing a mixed performance against major currencies: EUR: +0.12% JPY: -0.04% GBP: -0.15% CHF: +0.18% CAD: +0.32% AUD: +0.27% NZD: +0.23% US Stock Market Snapshot US stocks are mixed following yesterday's rise: Dow: -25 points S&P: +6.05 points Nasdaq: +43 points US Debt Market Yields have shown marginal changes: 2-year: 4.353%, up 0.3 bps 5-year: 4.454%, up 0.9 bps 10-year: 4.606%, up 0.8 bps 30-year: 4.796%, up 1.3 bps Global Economic Updates Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) The RBA released its minutes, noting that its policy remains "sufficiently restrictive" to address inflation concerns. Despite gaining confidence that inflation has eased, risks persist. The board highlighted the importance of not prematurely easing policies and acknowledged that if economic growth strengthens, a prolonged delay in rate adjustments might be necessary. Updated forecasts for inflation and growth will be published in February. Japan's Finance Minister Finance Minister Kato emphasized the importance of ensuring currency stability to reflect economic fundamentals, particularly in light of recent sharp foreign exchange movements. He stated that the government would maintain close communication with overseas authorities on forex policies and was prepared to take decisive action against excessive volatility. European Central Bank (ECB) ECB's Vujčić reiterated that interest rate adjustments would continue as long as data align with projections, emphasizing the central bank's data-dependent approach. He refrained from specifying the exact level at which the ECB might halt rate hikes, underscoring the uncertainty tied to future economic conditions. US Economic Data The Richmond Fed index will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -10 versus -14 last month. The US Treasury will auction 5-year notes at 1 PM. Yesterday, the Treasury auctioned 2-year notes with a 0.1 bp tail and a bid to cover ratio of 2.73X versus the 6-month average of 2.68X. Domestic buyers were very light at 6.7% versus the average of 19.5%, but international buyers showed up, taking 82.1%, well above the average of 68.1%. Technical Analysis EUR/USD The EUR/USD is trading around its 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.0403, a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. A move above this level could signal a more bullish trend, while staying below it would indicate that sellers are in firm control. USD/JPY The USD/JPY remains in a narrow trading range, currently at 157.12. The rising 100-hour MA at 156.42 is quickly approaching, which will be an important level to watch. Key levels include the high from November at 156.739 and the low from yesterday at 155.94. GBP/USD The GBP/USD is stretching higher, moving closer to the falling 100-hour MA at 1.2563. Breaking above this level would target a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147, followed by the 200-hour MA at 1.26201. Season's Greetings from OakleyJM As we approach this festive season, I wanted to extend my warmest wishes to all my followers. May your Christmas be filled with joy, and may the New Year bring you prosperity and success in your trading endeavours.. Navigating the markets during the holidays can be challenging due to reduced liquidity, unexpected volatility, and market closures. Here are a few tips to help you prepare: Plan Ahead: Be aware of trading schedules and adjust your plans accordingly. Manage Risk: Use tighter stop-loss orders and reduce position sizes. Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news and economic data releases. Use Limit Orders: Ensure you get the price you want despite wider bid-ask spreads. Focus on Liquidity: Trade assets with higher liquidity, such as major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks. Review Your Strategy: Analyse your performance and set goals for the upcoming year. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year! Warm regards, OakleyJM.
by OakleyJM
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD weakens to near 1.0400 in a quiet trading sessionLet’s update the news and forecast the trend of the EUR/USD currency pair together! The EUR/USD currency pair is primarily influenced by fundamental factors related to the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In the U.S., expectations that the Fed will scale back interest rate cuts in 2025 have somewhat supported the U.S. Dollar (USD). In its recent meeting, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points but simultaneously eased expectations for further rate cuts in the future. This suggests that the Fed may maintain a tighter monetary policy and continue to apply higher interest rates for a longer period, which supports the strong trend of the USD. On the other hand, in the Eurozone, the Euro (EUR) is under downward pressure due to expectations that the ECB will continue to reduce interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone is now "very close" to the bank's medium-term inflation target. However, if inflation continues to fall, the ECB may need to further cut interest rates to stimulate growth, which would exert downward pressure on the Euro. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.0400 level, a key support level to watch. If this level is breached, the pair is likely to continue its downward trend, with the next support around the 1.0300 area. Moreover, with trading volumes potentially low ahead of the holiday season, price movements may not be as strong. However, the fundamental factors, particularly the monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, will continue to be the dominant drivers shaping the long-term trend of this currency pair.
by Alisa_Rokosz
Euro / U.S. Dollar Currency Pair | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Euro / U.S. Dollar Currency Pair - Double Formation * Trend Line 1 & 2 | Completed Survey | Subdivision 1 * Pattern Structure | Supply Zone At 1.12000 USD - Triple Formation * Retracement | A+ Set Up | Subdivision 2 * 012345 | Wave Count Completed | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Entry Survey Settings Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
Short
by TradePolitics
1
EURUSD: Fed spoiled Holiday seasonThe FOMC cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, which was expected by the markets. Still, in an after the meeting address to the public, Fed Chair Powell provided some not-so welcomed projections for the following year. At this moment, Fed is expecting fewer rate cuts in 2025, from initially projected, with a 50 bps current baseline. This change comes from expectations of a higher inflation in 2025. The PCE indicator is expected to end next year at 2,5%, versus 2,2% previously forecasted, while its targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027. The US Retail Sales increased in November by 0,7% for the month, above market expectation of 0,5%. Retail sales increased by 3,8% on a yearly basis. The Industrial Production was down by 0,1% in November, which was lower from market estimate of +0,3%. The IP on a yearly basis was down by -0,9%. Building Permits preliminary for November were higher by 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate final for Q3 is 3,1%, higher from market estimate of 2,8%. The PCE Prices final for Q3 were higher by 1,5% for the quarter, in line with market expectations. The PCE index was up by 0,1% in November for the month, while core PCE reached also 0,1% in November. Personal Income was up by 0,3% in November, while Personal Spending reached 0,4% for the month. The PCE index stands at 2,4% for the year, which was lower from market estimate at 2,5%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for December was published, reaching the level of 74,0, and the five year inflation expectations of 3%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for Germany in December was standing at 42,5, lower from market forecast of 43,1. At the same time, the same indicator for services stands better at the level of 51,0, higher from market estimate of 49,3. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany for December was 84,7, again a bit lower from estimated 85,6. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany in December exceeded market expectations with a value of 15,7, while the forecasted figure was 6,5. Inflation rate in the EuroZone, final for November, was standing at 2,2%, a bit lower from estimated 2,3%. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for January is -21,3, lower from market estimate of -22,5. It was a challenging week on financial markets. The Fed projections for the year 2025 was something that the market did not expect, so the currency pair reacted in a pretty volatile way. The eurusd started the week around 1,05 level and moved all the way down to lowest weekly level at 1,035. Still, at Friday's trading session, the currency pair reverted a bit, ending the week at 1,0430. The RSI reached an oversold territory, but ended the week at the level of 40. The moving average of 50 days continues to strongly diverge from MA200 counterparty, indicating that no cross should be expected in the near term. The following week is a Holiday week on the Western markets. This means finally some less volatility, although this was a very challenging year-end. As seen during the previous week, the 1,04 support line might continue to be under pressure in the following period. Still, due to the Holiday, it should not be expected that this level is going to be breached till the year-end. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Holiday season starts from Wednesday, and no significant data is scheduled to be published. USD: Although Holiday season starts from Wednesday there will be only a few macro data published: Durable Goods Orders for November are due on December 24th.
by XBTFX
#EURUSD 4HEURUSD (4H Timeframe) Analysis Pattern Identified: Trendline Resistance: Price is respecting a descending trendline, indicating selling pressure and a bearish outlook in the short term. Forecast: Sell Now: The price is currently near the trendline resistance, providing an opportunity for a short position as the trend remains bearish. Buy Opportunity: If the price drops and touches the identified support level, a potential buying opportunity may arise, expecting a bounce from support. Key Levels: Sell Entry: Near trendline resistance. Stop Loss (Sell): Above the trendline resistance to limit risk. Take Profit (Sell): At the next support level. Buy Entry: At the support zone, once a bullish confirmation is observed. Stop Loss (Buy): Below the support level in case of a breakout. Take Profit (Buy): Towards the trendline resistance or next resistance level. Market Sentiment:* Short-Term Bearish: Dominated by sellers under trendline resistance. Reversal Potential: Watch for support zone reactions to switch to a buy setup.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
EUR/USD Downward Movement to Continue?The EUR/USD pair continues to show bearish potential on the daily timeframe. While Friday's high could be taken as part of a retracement, the overall trend remains bearish. There is a potential move toward the sell-side liquidity (SSL) below, aligning with unmitigated imbalance zones and market structure. Watch for price reaction in and around the Daily FVG level and the Fibonacci retracement zones for a potential bearish setup on the lower timeframes. Trade Safe ;)
Short
by jp7fx
1
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated, "The yen has recently exhibited unilateral and rapid movements. Appropriate measures will be taken to curb excessive currency fluctuations." - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the November Personal Consumption - Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, falling short of market expectations. - Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, remarked, "U.S. inflation remains on a slowing trajectory toward the 2% target." Major Economic Events + December 23: UK Q3 GDP + December 25: Christmas + December 26: Boxing Day EUR/USD Chart Analysis After breaking out of its previous upward trend, the pair is now in a consolidation range. A rebound from the lower levels suggests potential upside to the 1.06000 line. However, if it fails to break the resistance, there’s a high likelihood of breaching the bottom and exiting the range, potentially extending losses to the 1.01000 level. Conversely, if it breaks above the 1.06000 line, further gains toward the 1.08000 level can be expected. If movements deviate from expectations, we will promptly revise our strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EUR/USD: Be careful with last minute Holiday shoppingHello traders My last idea worked out profitably. +85 pips. We are entering the last 24-36 hours of meaningful trading. Keep in mind, the Asian markets may not be so invested in the Holidays and may take advantage of the low liquidity in the Western markets. However, levels are levels, especially in the most liquid currency pair, EUR/USD. Take a good look at the monthly levels and how it translate on the lower time frame charts. I base most of my trades on monthly/weekly levels and fine tune it on the 1 to 4 hour charts. Fundamentally, the USA finalized the spending bill. PCE came in a tad lower at 0.1% As I have mentioned in my idea the chaos is back in Washington D.C. even before the inauguration of the President elect Elonald Trump. What happened this week is unconscionable. The blatant power struggle between Trump, Musk and our elected representatives in Congress has started. Mark my words, Trump will dump his unelected co-president sooner than later. He got elected and does not share the limelight with anyone. Remember how he broke hundreds of years of protocol and walked ahead of the late Queen Elizabeth 2nd during a State visit? The other significant development was how 38 GOP members of the House defied Trump and voted against his instruction to raise the debt limit ceiling. With a razor thin majority in the House, Trump is going to have a hard time implementing his agenda, so fasten your seat belts. All in all, the EURO is fundamentally weaker than the USD but investors do not like uncertainty. Just look at the strength of the JPY as a safe have when adverse geopolitical developments happen. I initiated a short position from 1.0442 and will monitor the 1.0419 level if it breaks, down to 1.0384 level for another long position. Best of luck. Happy Holidays.
by jvrfxalerts
2
EURUSD POSSIBLE SELLThe market is currently testing the current Daily 0.5Fib area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern via price action. We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
Short
by WiLLProsperForex
1