USDEUR trade ideas
Week of 4/20/25: EURUSD AnalysisEU had a crazy week of consolidation last week and it was best to stay out until structure was clearer and had a direction.
My direction this week is bullish since all structure is bullish and we are starting to see that demand is in control. If it isn't, expect the lower level 4H POI to be mitigated and then continue the bull run.
Major News:
PMI - Wednesday
Unemployment - Thursday
Thanks for coming, hope you guys have a great week!
EUR/USD Bearish Setup Unfolding Below Key Resistance📊 Technical Analysis of EUR/USD (4H Chart)
🧭 Chart Overview:
Current Price: ~1.1350
Indicators Used:
EMA 50 (Red): ~1.1311 — acting as dynamic support.
EMA 200 (Blue): ~1.1114 — aligns closely with major support zone.
📌 Key Levels:
🔼 Main Resistance Zone: 1.1375 – 1.1400
Price has tested this zone multiple times, forming a potential double top pattern.
Strong bearish pressure observed each time price enters this area.
🔁 Minor Resistance (Retest Zone): ~1.1325 – 1.1345
Currently acting as a decision zone.
If price fails to hold above this level, it could turn into resistance on the next bearish leg.
🔽 Support Zone: 1.1100 – 1.1130
Converges with EMA 200 — making it a high-probability demand zone.
Potential target for the anticipated drop.
🧠 Price Action & Structure:
Market showed a strong bullish rally previously, breaking through resistance levels.
Now showing signs of exhaustion at the top.
Bearish scenario projected with a lower high forming below the main resistance, followed by a sell-off toward the support zone.
⚙️ Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario (High Probability):
Price rejects the minor resistance → breaks below EMA 50 → continues lower to support.
Target: 1.1110 area.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability):
Price reclaims and closes above 1.1375 with strong momentum.
Potential breakout and continuation toward 1.1450+.
🧩 Confluences Supporting Bearish Bias:
Lower high formation potential.
EMA 50 starting to flatten.
Failure to maintain momentum above main resistance.
Clean drop path toward 1.1110 if support breaks.
📉 Conclusion:
This setup favors short-term bearish movement, particularly if the price rejects around the 1.1345 level again. A breakdown below the minor resistance zone would likely trigger a sell-off toward the 1.1110 support, in line with the 200 EMA.
EUR/USD Maintains Bullish Structure 5th Wave Extension UnderwayThe overall trend of EUR/USD appears upward when observed from a higher time frame, indicating that the 4th wave has completed and the 5th wave is in formation. Within the main 5th wave, sub-waves are developing, and it seems we are currently in the sub-wave of the 5th sub-wave. Once this sub-wave completes, the main 5th wave is also expected to complete.
The invalidation level for this structure is at 1.10920 . If the upward move continues as expected, potential targets could be seen around 1.14683 and 1.15894
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1369
1st Support: 1.1147
1st Resistance: 1.1471
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EUR/USD...up 4h candle formed a bullish flag pattern...Nice catch spotting that bullish flag on the EUR/USD 4H chart. Here's a quick breakdown of your trade idea:
Entry:
Buy @ 1.13700 (current market price based on your analysis)
Target:
TP @ 1.16400 — That’s a solid upside potential of 270 pips
Stop Loss (Recommended):
Depending on the flag low, maybe around 1.13000 to 1.13200 (risk: ~50–70 pips)
Risk/Reward Ratio:
Around 1:4+, which is excellent if the pattern breaks cleanly.
If this breaks out as expected, the measured move from the pole could support your target. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation candles.
Do you want a chart plotted for this, or a trade plan template?
EURUSD LONG POSITIONGreetings Traders this is my analysis for EURUSD and it is long
Detailed Explanation:
A clear upward trend. A series of higher lows and higher highs.
Bullish momentum: At the beginning of March, a strong upward momentum starts.
Consolidation Breakout: The breakout from the "Support Zone" confirmed that the buyers had taken control.
Elliott wave structure: A wave structure is visible, this may be the end of the corrective phase and the beginning of a new impulse wave.
Patterns and Structures
Triangle pattern (bullish continuation): A nice symmetrical triangle after a strong jump, which is a typical trend continuation pattern.
Triangle Breakout: Very strong and clean breakout with confirmation (candles with large bodies).
"NOT RETRACEMENT": There was no deep retracement, indicating strong demand and potential for continued growth.
Entry is most likely right after the breakout from the triangle (~1.1397).
The RR (risk/reward) looks very good — more than 2:1, which is optimal.
📊 Key Levels
🔶 All Time High 2023 (~1,114): breached, now serving as new support.
🔴 SL zone (1.1259): logically placed below previous lows and triangle - good protection.
🟢 Target zone (1.1702): nicely positioned TP, in line with the projection from the breakout zone.
Since a Higher High has already been formed, a short-term consolidation or flag pattern is expected before continuing towards the target.
EURUSD forms inverse head and shouldersEURUSD has stalled after testing key levels, but a new inverse head and shoulders is forming. We’re watching for a breakout above 1.1429, backed by correlated moves in GBPUSD and USDCHF. Triangle and flag patterns also point higher.
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EUR/USD at Key Decision Zone – Breakout or Smart Money Trap?🟢 Current Context
Price: 1.13820 USD
Trend: Strong bullish structure, with impulsive moves especially in April.
Main timeframe: Appears to be daily or weekly, with multi-timeframe zones (1W, 1M marked).
🧱 Key Zones
🔴 Supply Zone (1.13000–1.15000)
Well-defined area of historic selling pressure. Price reacted with a temporary drop but bounced right back into it.
🟦 Demand Zone (1.08500–1.10000)
Major order block where the current rally was initiated. Price used this as a base to launch higher.
⚫ Lower Supports
1.03600: Weekly support
1.02838: Monthly support
Broad accumulation zone (grey box) from which this trend began.
📈 Price Structure
Strong breakout above 1.10–1.11 resistance.
Currently pulling back inside the supply zone – the dashed arrows hint at potential liquidity sweeps before a continuation to 1.15+.
🔍 Momentum Indicator (likely RSI/CCI)
Currently elevated, but not yet in extreme overbought. No clear divergence. Momentum favors bulls.
📊 Scenarios
✅ Bullish:
Clean break above 1.14500–1.15000 opens the door to 1.1600 and 1.1800. Wait for a structural retest for safer long entries.
⚠️ Bearish (corrective):
Strong rejection from the supply zone → potential pullback to 1.10–1.0850 (blue zone).
Only below 1.0850 would a deeper bearish structure toward 1.03600 be confirmed.
🧠 Strategic Note
This is a zone of clear smart money activity: liquidity grabs on both ends.
Watch how this weekly candle closes – we’re either validating above 1.13 or setting up a trap for late longs.
EURUSD CRACK!I first turned bullish on the EUR back in November 2024 after the disastrous election results.
I have always felt the 105 area was a good area to go long, fundamentally going back all the way to 2017. Here is an example.
After 17 years of data, we can all agree that the 105 area was a great value to get long the EUR. Now we see a major CRACK! in the chart with the fundamentals to back it up.
Again, I remind you I am a MACRO Trader. So my trades hold for a long, long time unless the facts change. I don't do 3 pips and i am out crap!
Let this be a WARNING! To the dollar bulls!
Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets, too. ))
Building a Strategy from Scratch: Where Do You Start?Building a Strategy from Scratch: Where Do You Start?
Most traders, if we’re being honest, don’t really have a strategy , they have a setup. A signal. A hunch. Maybe something they picked up on a Discord server or stumbled upon in a late-night rabbit hole of YouTube and indicators.
But building an actual strategy? That’s a whole different story.
It’s not just about drawing lines or finding that one magical entry. It’s about putting together a system that has logic, structure, and purpose—even if it’s simple.
Let’s back up: What even is a strategy?
Think of it like this: a strategy isn’t just how you get into a trade. It’s how you decide when the market environment is right for your approach. It includes how you define risk, how you manage outcomes, how you respond to different conditions, and—yes—when you sit on your hands and do nothing.
It’s a full picture, not just a moment.
Step one: Know your environment
Before anything else, it helps to understand what kind of market conditions you’re even looking to work with.
Some traders focus on strong trends, others prefer when price is stuck in a range. Some look for volatility; others avoid it like it’s a scam email.
There’s no “better” option. But knowing which type of environment you want to observe can help guide every other decision—from what indicators you consider to how you track performance later.
Step two: Build a framework (not just a signal)
The entry is the flashy part—but it’s just one component.
A framework might include:
What timeframes you observe and why
Conditions or filters that matter to you (volume, volatility, session time)
What kind of tools help you confirm your idea (maybe moving averages, maybe VWAP, maybe none)
This is where context really matters. A signal is just data. A framework is how you read that data and decide what’s worth paying attention to.
Step three: Clarify what you track
Strategy development is just theory without feedback.
That doesn’t mean you need a million spreadsheets—but a good strategy invites reflection. You might want to ask:
What happens before things work out?
What happens when they don’t?
Is there a specific condition that tends to repeat?
You’d be surprised how much you can learn from reviewing a handful of examples with that lens.
Step four: Define your version of “success”
Not everyone’s running the same race. Some people value high win percentages. Others focus more on consistency. Some want long-term performance across different assets; others are content observing one pair or index with high precision.
What matters is knowing what you’re trying to achieve—so you can actually tell if your strategy supports it.
And if that changes over time? Totally normal.
One more thing: Complexity isn’t the goal
This part’s important.
There’s a weird belief that serious trading must be complicated. That strategies need five indicators and multiple confirmations and algorithms whispering secrets behind the scenes.
Truth is, many robust strategies are deceptively straightforward. What makes them work isn’t the complexity—it’s the consistency .
Bottom line: it’s your puzzle
There’s no universal blueprint here. That’s what makes strategy building feel frustrating… and freeing.
You’re not trying to “beat” the market. You’re just trying to make sense of it your way—with tools, logic, and structure that reflect how you see the world.
And if you're experimenting, testing, or just organizing your ideas into something clearer—you're already doing more than most.
So take your time. Sketch. Observe. Iterate.
That’s where the real strategy begins.
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The Euro Bull sharpening it's horns against the USD?After further analysis on the weekly and monthly chart, I have identified what looks like a much larger broadening bottom pattern which signals the possibility of much further U.S. Dollar weakness.
Based on my previous video analysis, my original target for the EUR/USD was 1.2000 however 1.2500 – 1.3000 is not out of the question now. We haven’t traded in that price range since 2014.
In the immediate term, we could see a bullish acceleration if we begin trading cleanly above 1.1500.
I will expand on this analysis in my next upcoming weekly video.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.1322 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.1138
Safe Stop Loss - 1.1424
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
With weaker dollar we will be able to find one more push Today I'm seeing a lots of confirmation for us to look for one more push when you combine the confirmation I can see 1H change state of delivery And it's very good OTE level And the same time 4H/ 30M/ 15M buy side imbalance sell side inefficiency and I would like to say this is kind of 15 minutes Unicorn style in side 30 minutes inverse imbalance Wish you good luck trade safe
EURUSD Bulls Warming Up – Next Stop: 1.1650? EURUSD 4H Analysis
Technical Outlook — 16th April 2025
Current Market Condition:
EURUSD is currently trading near 1.1386 after breaking out of a descending structure and retesting it as support. Price is holding above dynamic support (ascending channel), showing continuation signs after recent bullish momentum. The market is in a short-term consolidation phase, coiling below a key resistance zone.
Key Technical Highlights:
Bullish structure breakout and successful retest of channel support.
Price is forming higher lows above key support around 1.1350-1.1300.
Stochastic (21/5/5) has turned upward from oversold, suggesting renewed bullish pressure.
Resistance zone ahead at 1.1450-1.1500 — a breakout above it opens clean skies.
Clean FVG/liquidity gap seen above 1.1500 towards 1.1650 and 1.1800 (targets shown with arrows).
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Bias (Primary Scenario):
If price holds above 1.1350 and breaks 1.1450 resistance, expect a bullish rally towards:
Target 1: 1.1650 (mid resistance)
Target 2: 1.1800 (major resistance)
Confluence: Strong uptrend structure, momentum shift on stochastic, and breakout continuation setup.
Bearish Bias (Less Likely for Now):
Break below 1.1350 and channel support may drag price down toward 1.1300 and 1.1200 supports.
Confirmation: Bearish candle close below channel + Stochastic rollover.
Important Note:
Multiple high-impact USD news events are clustered around this region. Expect volatility in the upcoming sessions. Monitor DXY and yields for correlation. Confirmation is essential before entering any breakout plays.
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Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.