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USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD - Sell Setup in ProgressPair: EURUSD Bias: Bearish HTF Overview: Structure leaning bearish — price respecting recent lower highs with room to fall into deeper 4H demand. Current Zone: Price just mitigated the 30M sell-side OB, showing early signs of reaction. LTF Confirmation: Still in observation mode — waiting for 5M or 1M confirmation to trigger short entries with confidence. Entry Zone: Focused on refined LTF shift beneath the 30M OB — ideal setup includes inducement or liquidity run before executing. Targets: First target is intraday low — ultimate target is the strong 4H demand zone below. Mindset Note: Let the market bring the entry to you — don’t jump ahead of confirmation. Smart patience wins. Bless Trading!
Short
by Juicemannn
EUR USD longit can be a viable setup , as last week we got trumped the uncertainty about dollar can continue... one thing about how i trade . the last method I'm using is using a secondary analyzer app that can detect the lines and patterns , in mass numbers . i would put my favorite asset beside then ill open trades with a proper risk to reward ratio ( 1/ 1.5 usually) , i have fixed hour for job its 5 hours of monitoring the market. after that i wont open trades as it enters new york session . in whole day i would close my trades as i reach my daily goal, then i go do my daily life ... so you may think i copy these ideas . that's not the case, its true for my real account im using a fish catcher but i know some day i dont have this and i should be able to catch the fishes with my hand. so im sharing these ideas based on my experience and yet i have to work on them ... Please note: This is for educational purposes only and not a trading signal. These ideas are shared purely for back testing and to exchange views. The goal is to inspire ideas and encourage discussion. If you notice anything wrong, feel free to share your thoughts. In the end, to learn is to share !
Long
by alisardari
EUR/USD long: The Fed Chair debacle is getting spicyHello traders My previous EUR/USD long did not pan out but I am swinging again. My entry order at 1.0563 was filled by the skinny skin of my teeth but so far so good. I'll use a trailing stop for this trade. The pressure on Fed Chair Powell is being ramped up by Trump's attack dogs with allegations of mismanaging Federal funds(gasp :) ) during the FOMC headquarters. We all saw the result of the rumor that Powell was fired/is considering resigning yesterday and as much as I am sure it pained DJT, he had to refute the rumor, no doubt on advice from Bessent. In addition, FOMC board member Waller publicly dissented today and suggested a rate cut at the July meeting. On the economic calendar we have the ECB rate decision, JOLTS, ADP and finally FOMC over the next two weeks. This is purely a technical play but I am keeping a close eye on the bond markets, the CME FedWatch tool and as for trade and tariffs, who cares... I mentioned the Federal Court of Appeals case regarding the IEEPA court decision starting on 7/31/2025. For anyone interested in the court's decision, www.cafc.uscourts.gov More importantly, you can sign up for a notification at courtlistener.com which is a free service. I have used it in the past and not only is it free but I also received the notification in a very timely manner. www.courtlistener.com Best of luck.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
EUR/USD Recovery into Resistance TestEUR/USD bears had an open door to make a run last week and, so far, they've failed. The Wednesday turn around Trump's threat to fire Jerome Powell certainly made a mark, but the question now is whether the USD can respond to support at a longer-term trendline; and, in turn, EUR/USD is now testing in the zone between 76.4 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements of the 2021-2022 major move. There's also the underside of the falling wedge pattern that's now coming in as resistance as taken from prior support. The next resistance level overhead is the 1.1748 level, which is the 78.6% retracement that had offered both resistance and support with short-term price action in the pair. - js
by FOREXcom
EUR/USD LIVE TRADE UPDATE📍Trade in Progress – Key S/R Retest Price is currently pulling back into the same S/R zone we sold from. If price breaks and closes above this zone, the setup could be invalidated. However, this level has shown strong historical structure, and we may see a rejection here. We’re watching closely for: A sign of momentum turning A potential engulfing candle confirming rejection 📌 A strong zone can hold—but we don’t guess. We observe and react with discipline.
Short
by darlwright
EURUSD Approaches Key Technical Breakout Point📈 EURUSD at a Critical Decision Point Between Two Trends EURUSD is coiling between descending resistance and ascending support. A breakout from either direction will likely define the next leg of the move. This post breaks down the converging structure, high-probability levels, and what traders should watch to stay on the right side of the market. 🔍 Technical Analysis: Price action is trapped between a downward sloping trendline (resistance) and a rising trendline (support), forming a symmetrical triangle. This compression indicates growing tension — and whichever trendline breaks first could dictate market direction in the coming weeks. Currently, EURUSD is hovering near 1.1670, testing short-term structure while holding above prior swing supports. 🛡️ Support Zones (if downside breakout occurs): 🟢 1.1670 – 1H Support (High Risk) First response zone on minor pullbacks. Stop-loss: Below 1.1620 🟡 1.1470 – 1.1427 – Medium-Term Support (Medium Risk) Confluence of diagonal and horizontal structure. Swing entry potential. Stop-loss: Below 1.1380 🟠 1.0799 – Last 1H Support (Low Risk) If the ascending trendline fails, this is the final zone to preserve a bullish structure. Stop-loss: Below 1.0740 🔻 1.0242 – 1.0195 – Last Daily Support (Extreme Risk) Loss of this zone marks a macro bearish shift. 🔼 Resistance Zones (if upside breakout occurs): 🔴 1.2094 – 1.2148: Daily Strong Resistance Key breakout level. Strong historical supply. Clean close above here signals trend continuation. Conclusion EURUSD is at a technical fork — squeezed between opposing trendlines. The first decisive break will likely set the tone for Q3. Watch 1.2148 on the upside and 1.1427 on the downside for direction confirmation. Not financial advice. Like & follow for more structured FX insights.
by husseindergham
BUY EURUSD now for 4h time frame bullish trend continuation BUY EURUSD now for 4h time frame bullish trend continuation ............... STOP LOSS: 1.1615 This buy trade setup is based on hidden bullish divergence trend continuation trading pattern ... Always remember, the trend is your friend, so whenever you can get a signal that the trend will continue, then good for you to be part of it TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything... Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with... trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here
Long
by BALE_FX
2
EURUSD: the ECB weekThe focus of the previous week was on US inflation figures. Posted data showed relatively stable figures for June, as inflation was standing at 0,3% for the month and 2,7% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Core inflation remained elevated and reached 0,2% for June and 2,9% y/y. At the same time, core inflation was by 0,1pp lower from market forecasts. The Producers Price Index in June was standing at 0%, same as core PPI. Compared to the year before, PPI was increased by 2,3%, while core PPI was higher by 2,6%. Retail sales in June were higher by 0,6%, and were better from market estimates of 0,1%. Building permits preliminary for June reached 1,397M and housing starts were standing at 1,321M in line with market expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June was at the level of 61,8 in line with forecasts. Five year inflation expectations cooled a bit to 3,6%, from previous 4%. This year inflation expectations also eased to 4,4% from previous 5%. The Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in May was higher by 1,7% for the month, bringing the indicator to the level of 3,7% on a yearly basis. Both figures were much higher from market forecasts of 0,9% for the month and 2,4% for the year. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in July for Germany reached the level of 52,7 a bit higher from forecasted. The final CPI in the Euro Zone in June was 2,3% y/y and core CPI at 2,3%, without change from the previous estimates. For the second week in a row markets favored the US Dollar, which strengthened to the level of 1,1570 against euro. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,1626. The RSI continues to move around the level of 50 and is still not ready for a move toward the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential change in course in a near term period. With a move toward the 1,1560, the eurusd tested the short term support line. At this level, the currency pair peaked in April this year. Charts are pointing to a potential for the short term reversal in the coming period. In this sense, levels modestly above the 1,17 resistance could be shortly tested. On the opposite side, 1,1560 might be tested for one more time at the start of the week, before the move toward upside. It should be considered that the ECB meeting will be held in a week ahead, where ECB members will draw the interest rate decision. A pause in rate cuts is overwhelmingly expected by market participants. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: GfK Consumer Confidence in august in Germany, HCOB manufacturing PMI flash for July for both Germany and Euro Zone, ECB meeting and interest rate decision will be held on Thursday, July 24th, Ifo Business Climate in July in Germany, USD: Existing Home Sales in June, Durable Goods Orders in June.
by XBTFX
3-Year Euro Uptrend — An Absurdity Amid a Weak EconomyCMCMARKETS:EURUSD The euro is climbing, hitting its highest levels since late 2021 near $1.18. This surge is driven by diverging central bank policies—with the ECB holding rates steady while the Fed leans dovish—amid global tensions that push gold higher and rattle markets, weakening the dollar even though the eurozone economy remains fragile. 📉 1️⃣ Dollar Weakness Takes Center Stage Since its January 2025 peak, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen by over 11% 📉—one of its worst starts in decades, comparable to the slumps of 1986 and 1989. As inflation cools, markets are betting on Fed rate cuts, pulling U.S. Treasury yields lower. Coupled with monetary policy divergence and tariff drama, the dollar’s usual safe-haven appeal is fading, even amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. 📊 2️⃣ Fed–ECB Policy Divergence While the ECB has signaled the possibility of one or two cuts this year, markets are pricing in a milder path. By contrast, the Fed is tilting dovish, with swaps markets expecting a rate cut in September and another by December 🗓️. This widening yield differential supports EUR/USD, even though eurozone growth remains soft. ⚖️ 3️⃣ Trump Tariff Risks and Sentiment Shift Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy—especially the threat of renewed tariffs—has weighed more heavily on USD sentiment than on eurozone currencies. Markets view these tariffs as inflationary and damaging to U.S. growth prospects. Speculative positioning data confirms record bearish sentiment on the dollar, with funds underweight USD for the first time in 20 years 💼. 💶 4️⃣ Eurozone’s Fiscal Shift Germany has begun spending and borrowing, marking a dramatic pivot from years of fiscal restraint. This has raised hopes for an investment-driven recovery across the eurozone. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is avoiding signaling aggressive cuts, stabilizing market expectations and maintaining a sense of monetary calm—for now 🛡️. 🛡️ 5️⃣ Safe-Haven Flows Shifting Traditionally, geopolitical stress boosts the USD as a safe haven. This cycle is different: investors are increasingly turning to gold, the Swiss franc, and the yen as defensive assets, indirectly supporting the euro. In April, when Trump delayed tariff plans, safe-haven USD flows unwound further, fueling euro gains 💰. ⚠️ Risks Ahead for EUR/USD: 💔 Weak Eurozone Fundamentals: The eurozone economy is not booming. The IMF projects just 0.9% growth for 2025, with Germany, France, and Italy struggling to regain momentum. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review flags worsening credit conditions, weak private investment, and deteriorating balance sheets, none of which support sustained euro appreciation 📉. 🚢 A Strong Euro Hurts Exports: Eurozone exporters in machinery, chemicals, and autos are already facing squeezed margins from rising input costs and global protectionism. A stronger euro makes exports less competitive, shrinking the eurozone’s current account surplus, which dropped sharply from €50.9 billion in March to €19.8 billion in April, according to the ECB 📊. ⚡ Political Risks Looming: Fragile coalitions in Germany, budget battles in France, and rising anti-EU sentiment in Italy and the Netherlands could swiftly unwind euro gains if tensions escalate. Should the ECB turn dovish to support a weakening labor market, the euro’s rally could reverse quickly 🗳️. 📈 7️⃣ Technical Picture: Overextension Warning In addition to the macro drivers, EUR/USD is now technically overextended. The pair has already retraced exactly 78.6% of its major bearish trend that started in January 2021 and ended in September of that year. Ahead lies a strong resistance zone at 1.18000–1.20000, which will be difficult to break without a significant catalyst. Notably, the daily chart shows bearish RSI divergence, indicating fading momentum beneath the surface of this rally. A pullback toward the 1.13000 level would not be surprising, even as near-term momentum remains strong. This technical setup calls for caution while the pair tests these critical levels. 📈 Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Showing Signs of Overextension Beyond macroeconomic factors, EUR/USD is currently technically overextended. The pair has retraced exactly 78.6% of its major bearish trend that began in January 2021 and concluded in September the same year. It is now approaching the upper boundary of a 3-year ascending channel, facing a significant resistance zone between 1.18000 and 1.20000—a hurdle unlikely to be crossed without a strong catalyst. Additionally, the weekly chart reveals a bearish RSI divergence, signaling that underlying momentum is weakening despite the recent rally. Given this, a pullback toward the 1.13000 level is plausible, even as short-term momentum remains robust. This technical setup advises caution as the pair navigates these critical resistance levels.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
1