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USDEUR trade ideas

#AN010: De-Escalation, ECB, Oil Prices and more Hi, I’m Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today we’re going to take a look at this week’s news. Thank you all for the great number of readers I’m receiving these days. Don’t forget that by visiting my website, you can also connect with me on other platforms and you can also find exclusive Benefits for my readers. 🔶 Key Highlights of the Week ECB’s Villeroy Confirms Rate-Cut Bias Amid Energy Volatility Governor François Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the European Central Bank remains open to further rate cuts—even with recent oil-price volatility—due to a strong euro and controlled inflation Oil Prices Surge—and Recede—on Iran Tensions and Ceasefire News U.S. strikes on Iran triggered at 5–7% spike in crude, pushing Brent above $77/barrel, before plummeting as ceasefire sentiment returned Dovish Shift at the Fed Multiple Fed officials (Bowman, Waller, Goolsbee) openly support a July rate cut, shifting dollar sentiment Emerging-Market Pressure: Indian Rupee in Focus Rising oil costs and geopolitical instability weigh on the INR, prompting potential RBI intervention Geopolitical De-escalation Eases Market Risk A U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp retreat in oil, boosted equities globally, and weakened safe-haven USD and gold -Forex Market Reactions: What Traders Need to Know EUR/USD: Rate-cut window in Europe: The ECB's dovish tone softens EUR's upside, while oil volatility now has less impact. USD weakness: Dovish Fed commentary has dented dollar strength Key chart signals: A sustained break below 1.0670 could open further downside toward 1.0600–1.0535. USD/JPY: Choppy action off failed breakouts near 148.00—watch for JPY resilience risk amid risk-off repricing AUD/USD & Other Emerging Currencies: Oil-driven FX pressure affecting the AUD—tracked via crude sensitivity. The Indian rupee weakness hints at broader emerging-market stress in risk-sensitive currencies 🛠️ Strategy & Outlook for Traders Theme Implication for FX Fed dovishness Dollar softness → supports EUR, JPY, EM currencies ECB policy flexibility Cap on EUR gains → neutral bias until data confirms Oil volatility Medium-term risk for AUD, CAD, NOK, RUB Geopolitical calm Risk-on sentiment → pressure on safe-haven USD & JPY 🎯 Trade Setups: EUR/USD: Short on fall below 1.0670—target 1.0600–1.0535; stop above 1.0760. AUD/USD: Short biased if oil sustains above $75; aligned with broader commodity-driven themes. USD/JPY: Watch for continuation short if risk appetite returns; else, trade reversals at 148.00 key.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD Trading Strategy for the WeekEURUSD is reacting at the support zone of 1.14500. This is an important support zone that helps EURUSD continue to maintain its upward momentum. The uptrend in the h4 time frame is still strong and heading towards the peak of 1.161. Below the support of 1.145 will be the 1.138 zone. When this 1.138 zone is broken, it confirms that a Downtrend is established. The possibility of breaking this zone is not high, so it is still possible to set BUY signals around these support zones. On the other hand, 1.153 is an important resistance zone in the near future where the pair will have a price reaction before finding the peak of last week. Support: 1.13800 Resistance: 1.16000 Break out: 1.14600-1.15300 Recommended good trading strategy: Trade when price confirms in Break out zone. BUY 1.13800-1.13600 Stoploss 1.13300 SELL 1.16000-1.16200 Stoploss 1.16500
by VHT_Trader
Euro – Eyes 1.15400, Awaits Powell's ToneEuro has just filled a GAP and rebounded strongly from the FVG zone around 1.14500. It is now approaching the 1.15400 resistance area, where a descending trendline intersects with a supply FVG. The bullish momentum remains intact within the short-term correction channel, but a rejection at this level could trigger a pullback. On the news front, US Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify this week. If he adopts a dovish tone, the USD may weaken further, potentially giving EURUSD the push it needs to break through resistance. Strategy: Wait for a clear breakout above 1.15400 to confirm further upside. If rejected, watch the 1.14000 zone as a key support.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
Euro Poised for Upside: Will $1.18 Be the Next Key Level?Targets: - T1 = $1.17075 - T2 = $1.18075 Stop Levels: - S1 = $1.14075 - S2 = $1.13075 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Euro. **Key Insights:** The Euro is currently positioned for potential upside, supported by the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious approach to monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s statements regarding inflation targeting have reinforced confidence in the currency, creating a stable outlook amidst broader global uncertainty. Additionally, improvements in European economic data—particularly stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures—have increased bullish sentiment among professional traders. Forex traders are closely watching upcoming inflation reports and employment statistics for additional confirmation of a continued uptrend. Technical indicators, such as rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels and bullish moving average crossovers, suggest further upside momentum. Breakouts above psychological levels, such as $1.17000, could drive stronger buying activity and potentially pave the way for the Euro to test higher resistance levels. **Recent Performance:** The Euro has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, hovering around the $1.15075 mark. Despite fluctuations due to mixed signals from equity and bond markets, the Euro has benefited from safe-haven inflows as geopolitical tensions brew in other parts of the world. Additionally, its stability has kept it among the top-performing currencies within the G10 forex universe. **Expert Analysis:** Forex market analysts are broadly in agreement about the potential near-term strength of the Euro. The ECB’s patient approach to monetary tightening is seen as providing a consistent support mechanism for the currency. Furthermore, the Euro has gained traction against traditionally weaker currencies such as the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, presenting further arbitrage opportunities for traders. Technicians point to the importance of $1.17000 as a crucial level to test before further gains can be realized. A confirmed breakout could lead to extended upside, potentially reaching $1.18 or more. However, downside risks remain, especially if the Dollar strengthens unexpectedly due to hawkish Federal Reserve policy or significant geopolitical escalations. **News Impact:** Recent news surrounding improved trade agreements between the UK and Europe has reduced uncertainty and supported the Euro as bullish sentiment grows. However, traders should remain cautious of geopolitical risks, including recent tensions in the Middle East, which could create safe-haven flows into other currencies like the Swiss Franc or US Dollar. Regulatory challenges facing US technology firms in Europe are also shaping broader equity movements that could indirectly influence the Euro's performance. **Trading Recommendation:** Based on bullish sentiment from professional traders, improved technical metrics, and the ECB’s supportive policies, we recommend a LONG position on Euro. The current price action suggests the probability of an upside breakout, with targets of $1.17 and $1.18 offering potential rewards. Ensure stops are placed thoughtfully within the levels outlined to mitigate risks from broader market volatility. This trade provides a promising opportunity to capitalize on the Euro’s relative strength.
Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 23, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD exchange rate fell to around 1.14900 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro (EUR) amid US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's war against Iran, which has sharply escalated the conflict. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US entered the conflict between Israel and Iran when American military aircraft and submarines struck three Iranian targets in Iran, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump said Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities had been “totally destroyed” and warned of “much more severe” strikes if Iran did not agree to peace. The rise in tensions following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is contributing to the rise in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and is having a negative impact on the major currency pair. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year to support the eurozone's sluggish recovery, but made it clear that there would be a pause in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end, as the central bank is now “well positioned” to deal with the current uncertainty. The ECB's hawkish tone may help limit the euro's losses in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.15000, SL 1.14600, TP 1.15800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Supply Trap Revisit Before Final Drop? | Smart Money Outlook 📉 Price has recently reacted from a strong FVG + Demand + Liquidity Start Zone (4hr) around 1.1450, confirming bullish intent temporarily. 📈 However, a corrective move is now heading into a 4hr Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 1.1520–1.1550, which aligns with a potential lower high setup. Key Zones: Supply Zone @ 1.1550 (Caution): Watch for rejection signs here—high confluence with previous imbalance. Bearish Expectation: After liquidity grab or mitigation in FVG, expect a strong sell-off targeting the 1.1410 level (measured move and 1.618 fib extension). ⚠️ Be cautious of price pushing slightly above 1.1550 to sweep liquidity before reversing.
Short
by ClearTradingMind
EURUSD – Technical Analysis and Long Position OpportunityIn this pair, there is a possibility to open a long position. When analyzing the pair on higher timeframes, using a 45-period exponential moving average and two simple moving averages of 70 and 95 periods, supported by a Parabolic SAR, an opportunity for a buy position can be identified. Although the pair is currently consolidating on lower timeframes, it is showing a strong upward movement on the higher timeframes. This outlook is based on the fact that, in June, a significant bullish candle was formed, followed this month by a doji candle pattern, which could indicate a continuation of the upward trend. On the higher timeframes, the technical indicators are also aligning in the correct order and direction, suggesting that this may be the right moment to enter a long position. However, it is important to emphasize that, despite the technical analysis presented, attention should be given to news, economic data, and other factors that could impact this pair, as this analysis relies solely on technical criteria. The long position tool shown on the chart serves only as additional support for entering the trade.
Long
by faluacuz_fx
EURUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUP💶 Potential Trade Setup on EURUSD Overview: Since March, EURUSD has shown consistent bullish momentum, especially after breaking through the key 1.0600 supply zone. The pair has maintained higher highs and higher lows, suggesting continued strength in the medium term. That said, I am still quite anticipating for a possible continuation of the bullish momentum that started a long time ago, and moving forward, I will anticipate for a clear retest of the 50% fib at the 1.1425 region, then I go in for the kill. Alternatively, there is a clear short opportunity, provided that, the bullish trendline is broken and the 1.1370 region is broken to the downside, this is a bit far a stretch, but it is in play. "IF" the DXY keeps the bullish momentum going. 🧭 Trading Plan: ✅ BUY Bias (Primary Plan): Look for a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone around 1.1425. This aligns with the ongoing momentum on the 4H timeframe. 🔻 SELL Bias (Alternative Scenario): If price breaks the bullish trendline and the 1.1370 support zone, a short opportunity opens up. This is only valid if DXY continues to strengthen, shifting sentiment. 🎯 Targets & Risk Management: Targeting 1:2 R:R on both setups. Ensure entries are backed by price action signals and confluences.
Long
by Adefxc