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USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD Trading Journal EURUSD Trading Journal Week summary and learning points Coming off the election huge range week, confirming a parent bias. Monday in a discount on the .79 level and immediately plunged. No pull back. Great short day with that one logic missing-do not short in a discount market. Hmmm Tuesday Continues the drop in lower prices lethargically. Again no pull back. Wondering about this do not trade shorts in a discount range. Wednesday London creates a high to Mondays fib range .70 OTE for a short after the 8 am bell. I admittedly traded a counter trend quickly exited. Saw the short set up that I noted in my journal that I intended for two clean equal low targets that price did take out. Celebrate. Thursday Price plunges again I for some reason have been wanting to counter trend trade all week. I saw the 3:50 macro to short to known sell side target. Celebrate. then at night 9 macro rode that up to the buy side target. Friday-heavy new driver day. Admittedly I watched from the side lines. I like how at 11 macro Price rallied to the FVG rebalanced and turned around.
by LParnell
EURUSD most likely to continue downward EUR/USD Overview (November 10–17, 2024) Over the past week, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a steady decline, hitting a six-month low. This downward movement was influenced by stronger U.S. economic fundamentals and a favorable market reaction to President-elect Trump's pro-business policies, which bolstered the U.S. dollar. European industrial production showed contraction (-1.3% m/m), adding negative pressure to the euro, while U.S. jobless claims decreased, reflecting a resilient labor market​​​​. Technically, EUR/USD broke below critical support levels (1.0680 and 1.0540) as it continued its downward wave. A brief consolidation was observed near 1.0540, with potential for further declines to 1.0505​​​​. Forecast for November 18–24, 2024 For the upcoming week, the EUR/USD outlook remains bearish unless significant bullish catalysts arise. Key drivers will include: Eurozone Data: Any improvement in GDP or industrial production figures could stabilize the euro. U.S. Economic Indicators: Continued strength in U.S. inflation and jobs data would likely support the dollar. Technical Levels: Resistance is seen near 1.0595, while a break below 1.0505 could push the pair towards 1.0420​​​​. Good Luck and happy trading!!!
Short
by Welburg_Trading
EURUSD SELL NOW on MondayEUR/USD remains in positive ground on Friday, as profit-taking hit the US Dollar ahead of the weekend. Still, Powell's hawkish shift and upbeat United States data keeps the Greenback on the bullish pathFurther losses could see EUR/USD testing its 2024 low at 1.0495 (November 14), before the 2023 bottom at 1.0448 (October 3). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 200-day SMA of 1.0865, seconded by the November high at 1.0936 (November 6) and the provisional 55-day SMA at 1.0947. In addition, the short-term technical outlook remains bearish as long as EUR/USD stays below the 200-day SMA. The four-hour chart highlights accelerating downward momentum, with key support levels at 1.0495 and 1.0448. On the upside, initial resistance appears at 1.0653, followed by 1.0726. The RSI rebounded above 32.Looking forward, potential trade policies from the Trump administration, including tariffs on European and Chinese goods, could push US inflation higher. If the Fed adopts a cautious or hawkish stance, it may continue to lend support to the US Dollar.
by KingForex078
Day 94-14 AUG 2024this was my day 94 of back testing and the good news is i had no loss or any dumb entry but the bad news is i miss sharp move because they may react in a 3m zone but not in a 5m zone and i miss the entry just by waiting in the 5min to see the reaction. i can solve this problem in live trading by having all time frames on my monitors but for back testing i don't have any practical solution and i think i will move to a live prop account in a week or so, i have really high hopes with the results i got from my back testing. For a high probability i will go for a prop account as soon as i finish back testing august.
by suegagwas
EURUSD Trading Journal EURUSD Trading Journal Parent Bias is Bearish Premium on the Weekly/Daily/Hourly (I made an error in documenting my last journal.) All good just watch your notes Lena. I keep moving my fibs around to get read, however this pair is in premium market heading to the 50% around range 1.03990-1.4000 big figure sound like a MM number. I anticipate for smart money to make some large moves at this level once reached, which is where I long term idea think we are going. I am looking for shorts as we approach the key clean equal lows to be broken and the drawl for the monthly BISI from Nov 7, 2022. So cool to watch price this week. Patience, study and discipline will prevail, keep going!
by LParnell
Trading EURUSD and NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 07/11/2024Our recent post regarding the NZDUSD trade, which incurred a loss, paved the way for an excellent trading day as we entered two trades on EURUSD and NZDUSD. After our post we spotted these trading setups, we were keen to observe how the positions would develop. The trade setup emerged simultaneously on both pairs, sparking our interest in the outcome of both trades. Each pair cleared the liquidity at the top of their respective zones, indicating potential selling opportunities in this trading session. Additionally, we awaited a structural break on the sell side and a retracement into the Fair Value Gap of the price leg that broke the structure. We executed the two trades, each with a risk of 1% of our trading account, resulting in a combined exposure of 2%. Our objective was to attain a total gain of 4% from these trades, so the next step is to exercise patience and wait for the outcomes to unfold. After entering the position, the EURUSD trade quickly hit take profit (TP), meaning we spent only 20 minutes on this trade. These are the types of positions traders dream of, trades that swiftly move to our targets. We then checked the NZDUSD position to assess its performance and found that it was deep in profits, although it had retraced slightly. This indicated that a bit more patience was necessary for this trade to fully materialize We reviewed the position once more, and it was very close to reaching the Take-Profit (TP) level before it retraced again Our patience has finally been rewarded as the NZDUSD position also reached the Take Profit (TP) level, resulting in a successful 2 out of 2 trades for the day, yielding a 4% return from both trades.
by CleoFinance
EURUSD: The Trump Effect and the Euro Falling to Yearly LowsThe recent re-election of Donald Trump has impacted the currency market, with a strong boost to the US dollar putting pressure on the euro. The EURUSD has continued the downward movement and this week has helped pierce the yearly lows, falling to 1.0599, consolidating a downtrend. This level marks a pullback towards the October 2023 lows at the 1.04506 support zone, a key threshold which, if broken, could accelerate the euro's decline. RSI is currently at 27.58%, which confirms oversold conditions, so that the euro is likely to fall further. The dollar's strength against the euro responds to rising expectations of expansionary fiscal policies in the US, which generates inflation prospects and could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. In the case of Europe, the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to sustain a restrictive monetary policy is increasing, although the slowdown in Eurozone growth limits its options. Other European Currencies - Pound Sterling (GBPUSD): The pound has lost ground, falling below its 100-day moving average on October 18 and about to fall below the 200-day moving average, confirming a possible fall to the 1.25915 mid-zone. - Swiss Franc (USDCHF): The dollar has also outperformed the franc, with the USDCHF advancing towards 0.8890 as investors seek refuge in the stability of the dollar in the face of European uncertainty, so it appears that the current momentum is pushing the franc towards its mid-zone this year. - Norwegian Krone (USDNOK): The Norwegian currency faces strong resistance at 11.13, with support at 10.85. The USDNOK's upside could continue if weakness in the energy market pressures the Norwegian economy at least to its current high zone at 11.31451. Pacific currencies The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) and New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) remain at low levels, with lows at 0.64755 and 0.58699 respectively. Although both currencies have shown slight signs of support, downward pressure persists. A break above the 0.6548 (AUD) and 0.66068 (NZD) checkpoint (POC) levels would be required for a positive turnaround. Conclusion The US dollar has gained strength on expectations of increased fiscal spending under the new Trump administration, supporting its position against major global currencies. The fall in EUR/USD, along with pressure on other European currencies, underscores the impact of this expansionary policy on the global financial landscape. In the short term, the dollar remains the strong currency as Europe faces challenges to sustain its support levels. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Short
by ActivTrades
Using Derivatives for Hedging Risks on ForexUsing Derivatives for Hedging Risks on Forex In the dynamic world of forex trading, understanding how to protect one's position is paramount. This article delves into the strategic use of derivatives, specifically CFDs, to hedge against potential adverse currency movements, offering traders a safety net in the volatile forex environment. The Concept of Hedging in Forex Hedging, in the realm of forex trading, refers to the strategic use of certain financial instruments, such as derivatives, to protect an investment or portfolio from adverse price movements. By employing this technique, market participants can potentially offset losses from their primary investments, ensuring a more balanced financial outcome. Companies that use derivatives to hedge risk, for example, aim to safeguard their operations from volatile currency fluctuations. For individual traders, hedging risk with derivatives becomes a key tactic, especially in the unpredictable waters of forex markets. The primary goal isn't necessarily to profit but to create a safety net against potential losses. An Overview of CFDs (Contract for Difference) CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, are derivative financial instruments that allow traders to speculate on price movements of underlying assets without actually owning them. In the forex context, CFDs enable traders to gain exposure to currency pairs' price changes without physically exchanging the currencies involved. Instead, traders enter into a contract to exchange the difference in value of a currency pair between the time the contract is opened and when it's closed. One of the primary uses of derivatives in risk management is employing CFDs to take an opposing position, thereby potentially reducing exposure to adverse market movements. The perks of CFDs include flexibility, leverage, and the ability to go long or short. However, these benefits come with downsides, such as the risk of amplified losses due to leverage and the possibility of incurring additional costs like overnight funding fees. The Mechanics of Hedging with CFDs The mechanics of hedging forex trades with CFDs are the following: 1. Establishing a Primary Position Traders first establish a primary position in the forex market, predicting a currency pair's direction. For instance, a trader might expect the EUR/USD pair to rise and hence buy or "go long" on it. 2. Recognising Exposure Once the primary position is established, traders identify potential risks. Is there an impending economic event? Could geopolitical tensions influence the currency pair's movement? Recognising these exposures is pivotal in hedging using derivatives. 3. Taking an Opposing CFD Position To hedge, traders take an opposing position using a CFD. If our trader has gone long on the EUR/USD, hedging would involve going short on the same pair through a CFD. This doesn't mean expecting the EUR/USD to fall but rather creating a protective stance using derivatives to hedge risk. Another option is to use a negatively correlated asset from another asset class, e.g. commodities, to the currency pair you trade and open a CFD trade in that asset. 4. Monitoring and Adjusting Successful hedging isn't a set-and-forget approach. As the forex market fluctuates, the effectiveness of the hedge might change. Platforms like FXOpen's TickTrader provide traders with the necessary tools and real-time data to monitor their positions effectively. If the primary position experiences an unfavourable move, the opposing CFD position can offset some or all of those losses. Conversely, if the market moves favourably, gains from the primary position can be realised, while the loss from the hedging position is an accepted cost for protection. 5. Closing Positions When traders believe the risk has subsided or their trading goals are achieved, they can close both their primary and hedging positions. Depending on the market movement, this could result in a net profit, a minimised loss, or a break-even scenario. In the world of derivatives and risk management, CFDs offer a nuanced tool for traders navigating the often-tumultuous waters of the forex market. When executed correctly, hedging with derivatives, like CFDs, can provide a layer of protection against unwanted market swings. A Brief Look at Options Options are a type of financial derivative that gives traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame. Unlike CFDs, which track the underlying asset's movement, options are based on the probability of reaching a particular price point. While they can be used for hedging purposes, their complexity often deters many retail traders. The steep learning curve associated with options means they're not typically the first choice for risk mitigation, especially when simpler derivatives like CFDs are available. Considerations Before Hedging with Derivatives Before implementing hedging strategies using derivatives, traders take into account several crucial aspects to ensure their risk management tactics align optimally with their financial objectives. Here are some essential considerations: Understanding the Derivative's Structure Before diving into hedging, it's crucial to thoroughly understand the derivative you're using, whether it's a CFD, option, or another instrument. Each derivative has unique features, payout structures, and costs. A lack of understanding can lead to unintended exposures. If you use derivatives, it's vital to determine the position size, as leverage leads to increased risks. The theory states that a trader’s CFD position shouldn't be larger than the trade they hedge. Cost Implications While hedging can safeguard against potential losses, it's not free. Factors like spread costs, overnight financing, leverage, or premiums (in the case of options) can impact the profitability of a hedged position. Traders factor these costs into their risk management calculations. Duration of Hedge How long do you anticipate the need for the hedge? The time frame can affect the choice of derivative and its cost. Some hedges might be short-lived due to specific events, while others could be more extended due to ongoing market uncertainties. Effectiveness of the Hedge No hedge is perfect. Consider the effectiveness of the derivative in relation to the primary position. How closely does the CFD or option's performance correlate with the asset you're trying to hedge? Regular Evaluation Risk management in the derivatives market requires constant vigilance. Market conditions evolve, and what was once an effective hedge might lose its potency. Regularly evaluate the hedge's performance and adjust if necessary. Seek Expert Advice Given the complexities, it's beneficial to seek advice from experts and explore in-depth resources. They can offer help in crafting a more tailored hedging strategy. The Bottom Line In navigating the intricate waters of forex trading, understanding hedging with derivatives like CFDs can offer traders valuable protection against unforeseen market shifts. This exploration has highlighted the nuances and considerations essential for effective risk management. For those keen to delve deeper into the world of CFDs and optimise their hedging strategies, opening an FXOpen account could be the next step in fortifying their trading arsenal. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
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