#AN008: Israel, Iran and the price of fear
GEOPOLITICS – Israel, Iran and the price of fear
While the stock markets are trying to hold up, the geopolitical reality is very different. In the last 72 hours, Israel has hit a facility considered strategic in southern Iran. Tehran responded with ballistic warheads targeted at NATO positions, and threatened a military closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a few hours, Brent has shot above $100, while WTI has touched $94.20, bringing back to life a spectre that seemed archived: energy purchases.
DOLLAR AND FED – Sickles under pressure
The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged, but Powell has sent a clear signal: "there will be no cut if the geopolitical context continues to generate upward pressure on prices".
In other words: the FED remains hawkish, the dollar continues to dominate, and global sentiment shifts to risk.
CROSS WATCH – SwipeUP FX Opportunity
EUR/USD
Weak EU macro + sustained US sell-off + war → Realistic target 1.0630 – if it breaks 1.0675 H8.
USD/JPY
Institutionals undecided: if the yen does not strengthen and the BOJ remains neutral, we can return above 158. Target: 158.60-159.2 in case of new USD leg.
CAD/JPY and oil-linked
Canada benefits from the oil increase, but be careful: risk-off can penalize. Assess only with cyclical confirmation and real volumes.
📌 WHAT TO WATCH NOW – SwipeUP Checklist
📆 Friday, June 21: US PMI data + Powell speech
⚠️ VIX above 20: signals real tension
📉 JPY and CHF in divergence? → watch out for manipulative breakouts
🗓️ Earnings Season: can divert flows in the short term, but remains in the background
USDEUR trade ideas
EUR/USD Slips as Fed Stays HawkishEUR/USD fell toward 1.1465 in Thursday’s Asian session, pressured by a risk-off mood as Middle East tensions rise. The focus shifts to speeches from ECB officials Lagarde, Nagel, and de Guindos for further guidance.
On Wednesday, the Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50% and signaled a slower pace of cuts, citing inflation risks from Trump’s new tariffs. The FOMC still projects two cuts in 2025
Bloomberg reported the US may strike Iran in the coming days, raising safe-haven demand for the dollar and adding pressure on the euro. ECB’s Lagarde said rate cuts are nearly done and that the ECB is well-positioned to manage current uncertainties.
Resistance is located at 1.1475, while support is seen at 1.1415
EURUSD(20250619) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed's June interest rate meeting - kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot shows two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has risen to 7, and the rate cut expectations for next year have been reduced to 1. Powell continues to call for uncertainty, and the current economic situation is suitable for waiting and watching. He also expects tariff-driven inflation to rise in the coming months.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.1489
Support and resistance levels:
1.1558
1.1532
1.1516
1.1463
1.1446
1.1420
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.1489, consider buying in, with the first target price of 1.1516
If the price breaks through 1.1463, consider selling in, with the first target price of 1.1446
EURUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25EURUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅15' order block
✅4 hour order block identified
✅Daily Order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EURUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is trading near our buy entry at1.143-1.1454, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fib retracement and the 61.8% Fib projection, providing a significant level for a potential bullish reversal.
Our take profit will be at 1.1487, which is an overlap resistance
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1405, which is a multi-swing low support level.
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EUR/USD TrendlineEUR/USD broke below its ascending trendline and failed to reclaim resistance at 1.14876. The pair is now showing signs of bearish pressure as it trades below key resistance.
If selling pressure continues, the next supports to watch are 1.14616 and 1.14353.
A confirmed break above 1.15319 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
🔻 Resistance: 1.14876 – 1.15020
🔻 Support 1: 1.14616
🔻 Support 2: 1.14353
🔻 Stop Loss: 1.15319
🔻 Timeframe: 1H
🔻 Bias: Bearish, below 1.14876
This is a technical idea only – not financial advice.
EURUSD Sell at current market priceBased on Daily/ H4 & H1 price action, current market price is the best price to enter sell in my opinion. I'm predicted that price will close below 1.15 level at the daily close.
This is my analysis, please calculate your own risk & reward.
Good Luck & happy trading.
EURUSD: 4H MA50 may start aggressive rally to 1.17900.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.513, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 36.044), trading inside a Channel Up for the past 5 weeks. Yesterday it made contact with its 4H MA50, which is the most common level of support inside this pattern. Based on that, we find highly probable for the pair to start the new bullish wave. A HH on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension has been a common feature of this Channel Up, hence we are turning bullish here with TP = 1.17900.
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EURUSD: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 1.15043 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 1.14942..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD broke the Support level 1.14865👀 Possible scenario:
The euro (EUR) rose 0.07% on June 16, supported by safe-haven flows as geopolitical tensions escalated. The move followed U.S. calls for evacuation from Tehran after intensified Israeli strikes, with former President Trump blaming Iran for rejecting a nuclear deal.
Markets now eye the Fed’s upcoming policy decision and June 17’s U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Strong data may push EURUSD down toward 1.15000, while weaker numbers could lift it back to 1.16300. Peace talk updates between Israel and Iran may also impact sentiment.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.14740
Resistance level is located at 1.16330
EURUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1504
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.1544
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Distribution Zone Triggered⏰ Timeframe: 15-Minute (M15)
💱 Pair: EUR/USD
📍 Event: Distribution Zone Triggered ‼️
🔍 Market Structure Breakdown: 1️⃣ Accumulation Phase 🟨
📌 Smart money builds long positions
📌 Stops hunted below support
2️⃣ Manipulation Phase 🟦
📌 Liquidity grab above resistance
📌 Trap set for retail buyers
3️⃣ Distribution Phase 🟥
📌 Entry for institutional sellers
📌 Shift in order flow to bearish bias
📊 What’s next?
🔻 Price likely heading to lower demand zones
🔄 Expecting continuation move post-distribution
🧠 Powered by Smart Money Concepts + Wyckoff Logic
🎯 Trader's Tip: Always wait for confirmation inside distribution to avoid false entries!
#EURUSD #DistributionZone #SmartMoney #WyckoffLogic #LiquidityGrab #SMCTrading
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Faces RejectionMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Faces Rejection
EUR/USD declined from the 1.1640 resistance and traded below 1.1550.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today
- The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1600 zone.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1600 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1550 support zone against the US Dollar.
The pair declined below 1.1520 and tested the 1.1475 zone. A low was formed near 1.1475 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1495 level.
The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1550 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.1505 level.
The next key resistance is at 1.1545 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545.
The main resistance is near the 1.1580 level. A clear move above the 1.1580 level could send the pair toward the 1.1615 resistance. An upside break above 1.1615 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1650.
If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1475. The next key support is at 1.1450. If there is a downside break below 1.1450, the pair could drop toward 1.1400. The next support is near 1.1350, below which the pair could start a major decline.
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EUR/USD Pressured by Safe-Haven Dollar DemandEUR/USD traded near 1.15 on Wednesday, under pressure from safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar as Middle East tensions escalated. Fears of broader conflict involving the U.S. kept the dollar firm. Markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to stay unchanged, though guidance may shape future expectations. The euro remained weak, burdened by Europe’s energy import exposure amid rising oil prices.
Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.