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USDEUR trade ideas

The Day Ahead Friday March 21 Data: UK March GfK consumer confidence, February public finances, France March manufacturing confidence, February retail sales, Italy January current account balance, ECB January current account, Eurozone March consumer confidence, Canada January retail sales Central banks: Fed’s Williams speaks, ECB’s Escriva speaks Earnings : Meituan, Carnival, Nio This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Lagarde Flags Slower Growth from U.S. TariffsThe euro fell below $1.085, retreating from its March 18 high of $1.0954, after ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of slower growth risks. Speaking to European lawmakers, she said a proposed 25% U.S. tariff on EU goods could cut eurozone growth by 0.3 percentage points in the first year, or 0.5 points if the EU retaliates. Lagarde added that the main impact would be front-loaded, with limited inflation pressures, suggesting the ECB is unlikely to raise rates in response. Key resistance is at 1.0860, followed by 1.0950 and 1.1000. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0670. 
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 21, 2025 EURUSDFederal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the danger to the economy from US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, which seem to exist in a quantum state where they both exist and don't exist at the same time. According to Fed Chairman Powell, downside risks have certainly increased thanks to repeated tariff threats, but Fed policymakers continue to insist that US economic data remains strong, albeit off recent highs. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's (Fed) manufacturing activity survey for March fell to 12.5 m/m, down from the previous reading of 18.1 and down for the second month in a row, but held the brakes and fell less than the median market forecast of 8.5. US weekly initial jobless claims also rose less than expected at 223,000 new jobless claimants, up from 220,000 the previous week. Investors had expected the figure to be 224k. Sales of existing homes in the US also rose by almost a third of a million transactions more than expected, rising to 4.26 million units in February from a revised January figure of 4.09 million. Market watchers had expected a slight slowdown to 3.95 million. With little in the way of economic data on Friday, investors will have a week's worth of events to digest. Traders will also keep an eye on any social media developments from President Trump. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0930, TP 1.0760
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD 4H Trading Plan: Buy Setup & Target Projection📊 EUR/USD 4H Analysis 🔵 Support Zone (1.07584 - 1.0800) 🔵 📌 Expected Reversal Area – Buyers might step in here. ⚠️ Stop-Loss Below ❌ (If price breaks lower, trade is invalid). 🟦 Resistance Zone (~1.0875 - 1.0900) 🟦 📌 First Hurdle – Price may face resistance here before moving higher. 🎯 Target Point: 1.10229 🎯 ✅ Final Take-Profit Level – If price reaches here, trade is successful! 📉 Plan: 🔻 Expect a drop into support first… 🔄 Bullish reversal from support… 🚀 Uptrend toward 1.10229! 🔴 Stop-Loss Below 1.07584 (🚫 Safety Net). 🟢 Entry Around Support Zone (✅ Buy Opportunity). 🔵 Exit at Target Point (1.10229) (💰 Profit Zone). 📝 Final Thought: If the price respects the support zone 🟢, a BUY trade is valid. If it breaks lower 🔴, it's best to step out! 🚀
by Jameshead007
EUR/USD: Power Move Signals Wave 3—Is Wave 5 Next?Strong Moves Often Mean One Thing: Wave 3! Hello traders! If you’ve been watching EUR/USD, you’ve probably noticed the recent explosive move higher. When you see a sharp, powerful trend like this, there’s a good chance you’re looking at a third wave in Elliott Wave theory. And guess what? That’s exactly what seems to be unfolding here. Wave-by-Wave Breakdown: Wave 1: The first push up—this sets the tone for a potential new trend. Wave 2: A corrective pullback that held its ground, acting as the calm before the storm. Wave 3: Boom! This is where things get exciting. Wave 3 is usually the strongest, most aggressive move in an impulse wave. In EUR/USD, we’ve seen an extended and powerful run, confirming the textbook characteristics of a Wave 3. Wave 4 (In Progress): After that big Wave 3, we’re seeing a pullback—a classic Wave 4 correction. This is where many traders sit back and wait. Why This Matters: Once Wave 4 completes, we could be looking at Wave 5, the next leg higher. While Wave 5 might not always be as explosive as Wave 3, it’s often a high-probability setup for trend continuation traders. If Wave 4 stabilizes near key support zones (watch 38.2% or 50% retracements of Wave 3), Wave 5 could be a clean move higher. Actionable Tips for Traders: Watch for signs that Wave 4 is ending: slowing momentum, bullish reversal candles, or support holding. Use tools like RSI and MACD to spot hidden bullish divergence as a clue. Plan entries above minor resistance levels, and keep stops tight below Wave 4’s low. Final Thoughts: Powerful moves like Wave 3 grab attention—but it’s often the Wave 5 trade that gives us a structured, high-probability opportunity. Stay patient, stay focused, and let the waves guide you! If you found this analysis helpful, give it a like and follow for more real-time wave breakdowns!
Long
by TheSignalService
Hidden Forces: Decoding Buyer & Seller Activity on ChartsTotal Volume vs. Volume Delta: The total volume on the chart includes both buys and sells, making it less useful for analysis. Volume Delta, however, shows whether buyers or sellers dominated within a candle. A green Delta candle means more aggressive retail buying; a red one means more retail selling. This helps analyze market sentiment beyond price movement.
 Price & Delta Relationships: 1. Price and Delta move together → Organic movement, likely driven by retail. 2. Delta moves, but price doesn’t → Retail is heavily biased in one direction, absorbing limit orders. Possible smart money trap. 3. Price moves, but Delta doesn’t → Retail didn’t participate in the move. Lack of belief or failed market-making attempt. 4. Price moves against Delta → Strong indication of market manipulation. Large players using aggressive strategies against retail.
 Market Manipulation & Smart Money: * Whales leverage retail psychology and order flow to position themselves. * Retail often gets caught in fake moves, unknowingly providing liquidity to big players. Final Thought: By analyzing Delta and price movement together, we can spot hidden large buyers and sellers and understand market dynamics beyond surface-level price action.
Education
by supremum_ar
EURUSD: What does mathematics say about its trend?EURUSD pair!! What can we expect from its trend in the coming weeks? It's common knowledge that the euro has strengthened significantly since March 3rd, as the chart clearly shows. What has this been due to? Multiple factors (Trump, USD technical decline, tariffs, manipulation, etc.). But what's important for a trader? Knowing the direction in the coming weeks. If we look at the surveys (shown in the chart), 90% of traders believe that the EURUSD will go down. And us? What do we think... ---> Let's analyze the chart to think mathematically and forget about surveys and people's opinions because that's how a profitable trader should think, like a bot! Mathematically, it's clear: BEARISH in the long term and BULLISH in a RECUMBENT PHASE or LOSING STRENGTH in the short term. In the chart above (H4), we clearly see that the trend is bullish, but that it has begun to retreat and break through key support zones. And if we look at the chart below (H1), the price is entering a POSSIBLE TREND CHANGE ZONE! If it breaks through the gray zone, the EURUSD WILL DROP STRONGLY! With this data and the SURVEY... What would you think as a TRADER? That the EURUSD WILL DROP IN THE COMING WEEKS, and therefore, we must be prepared for possible short entries. ---> But is this opinion reliable yet? From my point of view, when the trend on the H1 chart turns bearish (Bear), I would enter short without hesitation, but NOT BEFORE! The volatility due to tariffs can MANIPULATE MATHEMATICS and therefore give us FALSE SIGNALS. And the fault won't lie with math, but with market manipulation, because math works perfectly in a stable market, but when there are people (Mr. TRUMP) who manipulate everything, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN A MATTER OF HOURS OR MINUTES :-). In short, we clearly see a BEAR PHASE in the EURUSD, which is also in favor of its weekly trend, so it could be strong and take us back to the 1.05000 zone. Best regards, and I will update the PAR information in the coming days.
Short
by jmesado
EUR/USD with a bullish breakout falling wedge pattern You're looking at a **falling wedge** pattern on **EUR/USD** with a **bullish breakout setup**. Here’s a structured trading plan based on your input: 1. **Buy Trade Setup** - **Pair**: EUR/USD - **Pattern**: Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal) - **Entry**: **1.09000** (Breakout confirmation above resistance) - **Target (TP)**: **1.09700** (700 pips move) - **Stop Loss (SL)**: **1.08300** (Risk: 70 pips) - **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)**: **1:1** 2. EUR/USD Sell Setup – Falling Wedge False Breakout If the falling wedge fails and breaks downward instead of upward, here’s an alternative sell setup: Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bearish Breakdown) Entry: 1.09000 (Break below support) Target (TP): 1.08300 (700 pips move) Stop Loss (SL): 1.09700 (Risk: 70 pips) ### **Confirmation & Strategy** ✅ **50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)**: Ensure price is reclaiming above the EMA after breakout. ✅ **Volume Increase**: Look for rising volume on breakout confirmation. ✅ **Retest**: A retest of the breakout level (1.09000) turning into support strengthens the trade. ✅ **Momentum Indicators**: RSI above 50 and MACD bullish crossover can support the move. ### **Risk Management (MM)** 🔹 Risk only **1-2%** of your capital per trade. 🔹 Adjust position size to maintain a controlled drawdown. 🔹 Avoid overleveraging to withstand potential pullbacks.
Long
by TradingStar090
EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0900 Ahead of Key Economic EventsEUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase below 1.0900 in the European session on Monday, as traders exercise caution ahead of key economic data releases. The pair is navigating a narrow range as the market awaits the US Retail Sales data and the German parliamentary vote on fiscal reforms. Technical outlook: Consolidation continues EUR/USD is exhibiting signs of indecisiveness, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering slightly above 50 and the price fluctuating around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. These technical signals suggest a lack of strong directional bias in the near term. Key support levels: 1.0850 - 1.0860: Confluence of the 50-period SMA and the 200-week SMA, marking immediate downside support. 1.0800: A static and psychological round number level. 1.0730: Supported by the 200-day SMA, a critical longer-term trend indicator. Key resistance levels: 1.0900: A strong psychological barrier and static resistance level. 1.0940: Static resistance from previous price action. 1.1000: A major round number and historical resistance level. Fundamental factors affecting EUR/USD US Retail Sales Data (February Release): Expected to rise by 0.7%, rebounding from a 0.9% contraction in January. A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on the US Dollar (USD), while a stronger report may provide support. Federal Reserve Meeting (March 19): Market participants are reluctant to take large positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision. The current consensus expects the Fed to maintain rates at 4.5%, which aligns with the previous decision. German Fiscal Reform Vote (March 18): The CDU/CSU, SPD, and Green Party will vote on a proposed fiscal package. The outcome could influence the Euro’s strength, depending on the market's perception of Germany’s fiscal outlook. US Stock Market Sentiment: US equity futures are trading deep in negative territory early Monday, limiting EUR/USD’s potential upside. Short-term price action and forecast 24-hour View: Following last week's sharp but brief rally to 1.0912, the pair closed higher at 1.0879. Current price movements indicate a range-trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910, suggesting continued consolidation. 1-3 Week Outlook: Analysts at UOB Group maintain a neutral stance, expecting EUR/USD to trade within a broader 1.0680 - 1.0950 range. While the recent rally has paused, there are no clear signs of a new directional trend. Bias and Sentiment The one-week market bias remains bearish, with 50% of forecasts predicting a decline and the rest expecting sideways movement. The absence of bullish sentiment indicates weak upward momentum, making it difficult for EUR/USD to break above 1.0900 without a strong catalyst. The pair is likely to stay within a narrow range ahead of the US Retail Sales data and the Federal Reserve meeting. Support at 1.0850 holds near-term downside risks, with a break lower exposing 1.0800. On the upside, 1.0900 remains the key resistance, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way toward 1.0940 - 1.1000.
Short
by SupertradeOfficial
EURUSD 15K PROFIT LIVE TRADE EXACUTION 57K TARGETThe EUR/USD pair trades near a fresh weekly low of 1.0833 on Thursday as the US Dollar(USD) surged in the European session. A dismal market mood fuels demand for safety ahead of United States (US) data, with Wall Street’s futures reversing most of Wednesday’s gains. Market players welcomed comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted that President Donald Trump's trade war may have a transitory impact on consumer prices. The central left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% following the March meeting, as widely anticipated. Officials maintained their view of 50 basis points (bps) cuts for this year while downgrading their growth perspectives. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde testified before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament on Thursday. Lagarde repeated that officials will be data-dependent and take decisions meeting by meeting. She added that Eurozone (EU) retaliatory measures on US tariffs and a weaker Euro exchange rate could lift inflation by around half a percentage point, noting that the effect would ease in the medium term due to lower economic activity. Finally, she warned that estimates are subject to very high uncertainty.
Short
by THEPROTRADERZA