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USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD COT and Liquidity Analysis Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing. Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday. Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. So what we see in the report of this week: We can see slight decrease in the longs and increase in the shorts but for the reversal it has to happen in the liquidity pool. So for the bigger pullback I think market makers will be adding shorts att highs as well as closing longs. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
12
Question mark on monthly resistance level for EUR/USDWith the US dollar (USD) poised for lower terrain, this could underpin the euro (EUR) and call into question the reliability of resistance at US$1.1457 on the EUR/USD. If the pair concludes north of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0914 this month and above resistance-turned-possible support from US$1.1134, the pendulum may swing in favour of upside towards resistance between US$1.2028 and US$1.1930. This area comprises an equal AB=CD resistance, horizontal resistance, and a gathering of Fibonacci ratios.
Long
by FPMarkets
EUR/USD: Is the Uptrend Losing Steam?EUR/USD has had an exceptionally strong month, gaining over 7% from bottom to top – one of the best performances in EUR’s history against the dollar. But now, things are starting to shift. 🧭 Possible Long-Term Trend Change? Beyond the impressive rally, the bigger story might be the potential shift in the long-term trend. However, after such a sharp move up, a correction is not only likely – it may already be underway. 🔍 Technical Outlook: - Price pushed above the key 1.15 psychological level but failed to hold momentum. - A bearish consolidation is forming. - A classic Head and Shoulders pattern appears to be developing, with a neckline near 1.13. - A break of that level could open the door for a deeper retracement, with a target around 1.11. 🛠️ Trading Plan: I’m looking to sell rallies, ideally near 1.1450, to maintain a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
EURUSD April 25 Trade ExecutedEURUSD April 25 Trade Executed Framework for the this trade Previous session Price took buy side and was in a premium on the previous session. Price formed the ICT 2022 model. *liquidity taken *Price created a swing low *Price came back up to create equal highs in the hourly FVG and didn't want to go higher. *16:45 price creates a FVG *Price breaks down (Had price not been in the dealing range i would have entered a lot sooner however I wasnt sure if i can trade during that time, something for me to look into) * my desired entry would have been 1.13817 after the swing low was taken and price was break of structure on that candle *actual entry was 1.13722 *target was 1.13467 I have been back testing Asia when it presents these elements of this trade. Extremely happy about the delivery and very happy I finally trusted my analysis to execute!!! Bread and butter trade. 25 pips 1 hour.
by LeanLena
EURUSD - Multi Time Frame Trade SetupDollar looks like it may be ready to bounce after a significant bearish trend. And so I have been looking for a suitable currency pair. Euro is printing a long wick; it looks good on the 2D chart that I will post below ⤵️. But up on high time frame, I thought it was interesting to notice that the impulsive uptrend since January appears to be topping slightly higher than the previous trading range spanning back to 2023. Whenever I see whipsaw at a slightly higher high, I am always thinking it may be a liquidity sweep as part of a Wyckoff Distribution. Here it gets interesting 😅... Because the move up was impulsive, but yet it has is printing potential topping candles at a slightly high high. This suggests that this impulse wave may actually be a blow of 3rd wave as part of a 3 wave correction. This blow off 3rd wave does not appear in any textbooks that I am aware of but I have seen this pattern in various contexts. And it can be quite a useful one to be aware of because if it is a 3 wave completion, then potentially the dominant trend may re-assert to the downside. If correct then this could be a great long term hold; down and down below the current ATL. With this in mind, I have taken a fib extension from the lows... And surprise surprise; the current wicked candles are printing tidily within the 1:0.618 Golden Window; captured nicely just shy of the 0.786 overshoot ratio. If you've done the Fibonacci homework, then you'll know that this is a weak ratio band and exactly the ratio area we would want to see topping action print within for the purpose of looking for a bearish trade setup. So okay, we have - Whipsawing candles, often seen at high time frame pivots. - Slightly higher high as part of a 3 wave 1:0.618 GW correction. - Impulsive 3rd wave suggesting it is a blow off wave which could lead to significant downside. With all this in mind, I have then looked back in the chart to take a high time frame Fib Retracement from the last major high - which was back in 2018 down to ATL which is the foot of the 3 wave correction. Again, surprise surprise; the whipsawing action appears to be printing a high time frame retracement Golden Window failure. This is a likely ratio area for rejection and further adds confluence to this bearish idea. Then in low time frame, the impulse wave completes a 1:1 upside correction; a tidy ratio for wave completion. ... In lower time frame there are 2 upper wicked candles printing a slightly higher high. So again we have Wyckoff distributive structure signalling that this is a top 🧐. So we'll see how it develops. I entered a short position here. Not advice
Short
by dRends35
Could the price reverse from here?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1421 1st Support: 1.1141 1st Resistance: 1/1459 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
EURUSDEUR/USD Directional Bias in the Face of Tariff War The ongoing tariff war—particularly between the US and China, but also involving threats of US tariffs on the Eurozone—is exerting a complex but generally bullish bias on the EUR/USD pair in the short term, despite underlying economic headwinds for the Eurozone Key Drivers of EUR/USD Directional Bias 1. US Dollar Weakness from Trade War Fears The escalation of US-China tariffs and threats of additional US tariffs on Eurozone goods have led to increased fears of a US recession and higher inflation, both of which are negative for the dollar. As US companies face higher costs and potentially lower revenues due to tariffs and retaliation, the market expects the US economy to falter faster than others, prompting capital outflows from the dollar and into other currencies, including the euro. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to multi-year lows, supporting EUR/USD gains. 2. Euro as a Relative Beneficiary Despite the ECB's dovish stance and recent rate cut, the euro has benefited from the dollar’s weakness and the perception that Europe may weather the trade war fallout better than the US, at least in the short run. The Eurozone’s willingness to consider fiscal support measures and the potential for capital repatriation from US assets to Europe further support the euro. 3. Market Sentiment and Positioning Speculative positioning is increasingly bullish on the euro, with net long positions at their highest since September 2024. However, commercial hedgers are extending short exposure, suggesting caution and the potential for volatility. The pair is approaching overbought levels, so while the bias is up, a short-term retracement is possible if the rally becomes overstretched. 4. Risks and Uncertainties Any signs of de-escalation in the tariff war or a sudden improvement in US-China or US-EU trade negotiations could quickly reverse the euro’s gains. The Eurozone is not immune to trade war fallout; ECB estimates suggest tariffs could cut Eurozone GDP by 0.5–1 percentage point, which could weigh on the euro if realized Summary Table: EUR/USD in Tariff War Context Factor Impact on EUR/USD US-China/EU Tariff Escalation Bullish for EUR/USD US Recession Fears Bullish for EUR/USD ECB Rate Cuts Limits EUR upside Eurozone Fiscal Support Supports EUR Market Positioning Bullish, but watch for volatility Trade War De-escalation Bearish for EUR/USD Conclusion In the current tariff war environment, the EUR/USD directional bias is bullish, driven primarily by US dollar weakness and relative safe-haven flows into the euro. However, this bias is fragile—vulnerable to changes in trade policy rhetoric, economic data surprises, and any signs of de-escalation. Near-term, EUR/USD could continue to test higher resistance levels, but overbought conditions and Eurozone economic risks may cap gains or trigger corrections.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
2
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 24 April 2025 - EURUSD reversed from support area - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1510 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the key support level 1.1300 (which also reversed the price at the start of April) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March. The upward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term ABC correction iv from the middle of April. Given the clear multi-month uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 1.1510, which stopped the earlier impulse wave iii.
Long
by FxProGlobal
EUR/USD – Perfection in Motion🔥 EUR/USD – Perfection in Motion 🔥 This 20HR chart is a textbook example of precision trading: Price tapped perfectly off the Fibonacci 0.236 at 1.1368 and held. You can clearly see how the structure is respecting both the 11HR low and 18D Candle Bottom zone. The rejection wick from the top aligns with the 20HR Previous High at 1.1572, adding confluence to this current retracement. We're now in a tight reaction zone, where the next candle or two will tell the story: is it continuation… or deeper pullback? This is why I focus on: ✅ Zone behavior ✅ Candle reaction ✅ Trend maturity Not just noise. 📊 "The market doesn't lie — it just waits for you to listen." #EURUSD #SmartMoney #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingStructure #PerfectionInCharts
Long
by MoNi_MoN
2
Why Should You Care About ER?🚀 Hey Traders! Have You Ever Felt Lost in the Chaos of Market Fluctuations? What if I told you there’s a powerful tool that can help you cut through the noise and give you a statistical edge to predict SUPPORT and RESISTANCE movements with confidence? Let me take 5 minutes of your time to introduce you to something that could transform your trading game: Expected Range Volatility (ER) . What is Expected Range Volatility (ER)? The Expected Range (ER) is a framework that helps traders understand how much an asset is likely to move within a specific timeframe. Based on CME market data and Nobel Prize-winning calculations, price movements within the expected volatility corridor have a 68% probability of staying within those boundaries. 💡 Key Insight: When the price approaching certain levels, there’s a 68% chance the price won’t break through those boundaries. This means you can use ER as a powerful filter to identify more precise entry and exit points for your trades. Why Should You Care About ER? When I first discovered the ER tool, it felt like stumbling upon a gold mine in the trading world. Here’s why: It’s free and available on the CME exchange’s website. It’s underutilized —95% of traders don’t even know it exists. It provides statistical clarity in a world full of uncertainty. I remember the first time I used ER in my analysis—it completely changed the way I approached intraday trading. Now, I never make a trade without checking the ER data. It’s become an essential part of my strategy. How to Use ER in Your Trading 1️⃣ Input the Data: Head over to the CME website, plug in the necessary parameters, and get your ER values. 2️⃣ Set Boundaries: Use the ER range as a guide to set potential support and resistance levels. 3️⃣ Filter Trades: Only take trades that align with the ER framework to improve your precision. A recent example is the Japanese yen futures market. Don't be confused by the fact that we take futures levels, it can easily be plotted on a spot chart for forex market (the dollar/yen). Limitations to Keep in Mind While ER is a powerful tool, it’s not a crystal ball. Here are some limitations: Market Dynamics: Short-term price movements can be unpredictable due to sentiment, news, or economic events. ER provides a statistical estimate, but it doesn’t guarantee outcomes. Assumptions: The formula assumes price movements follow a log-normal distribution , which may not hold true in all market conditions. Your Turn: Are You Using ER in Your Strategy? 💭 Here’s the million-dollar question: Are you leveraging the power of Expected Range Volatility in your trading? If not, why not start today? 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments below: Do you currently use ER or similar statistical tools? Want to Dive Deeper? If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, don’t miss out on our all-in-one resource designed to help you master tools like ER and other valuable sources to gain market edge! 🔥 Remember: No Valuable Data = No Edge!
Education
by ClashChartsTeam
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1427 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1560 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.1281 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets