Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2025 EURUSDEvent to watch out for today:
15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S.
EURUSD:
EUR/USD rises towards the 1.1335 level during the early Asian session on Thursday. Easing concerns over potential tariff threats from US President Donald Trump are putting some pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
According to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book report released on Wednesday, businesses facing the early stages of Trump's tariffs are looking for ways to pass on rising costs to consumers. Companies have reported receiving warnings from suppliers about price increases and are looking for ways not to absorb those increases, noting uncertainty about whether they can pass them on to customers.
Earlier this month, Trump imposed a basic import tax of 10 per cent or more on dozens of countries, but then unexpectedly suspended the taxes for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate lower rates. Nevertheless, trade policy uncertainty and concerns over slowing economic growth in the US could drive the dollar lower and create a tailwind for EUR/USD.
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting. During a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the US tariffs on EU goods, which have increased from an average of 3% to 13%, are already hurting the prospects of the European economy.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1320, TP 1.1430
USDEUR trade ideas
EUR/USD Consolidates: What's Next? FenzoFx—EUR/USD declined from $1.1571, as anticipated, due to overbought signals from the Stochastic and RSI 14 indicators. The pair now trades below the 50-period simple moving average, near $1.1350.
The Stochastic Oscillator has dropped below 20, suggesting the U.S. dollar is overvalued short-term. As long as the price remains above the $1.1259 support, the bullish outlook holds. Potential upside targets include $1.147 and $1.1571.
Bearish Scenario: If the price falls below $1.1259, bearish momentum may drive EUR/USD toward the next support at $1.1146.
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Why All You Need Is the Chart: Let the Market Speak FirstYou missed the news? Doesn’t matter. The chart already heard it for you.
________________________________________
1. The Myth of Being “Informed”
Modern traders feel pressured to be constantly plugged in:
• Twitter alerts
• Trump’s latest outburst
• CNBC headlines
It feels like you’re missing out if you’re not watching everything.
But here’s the truth:
By the time you read the news, the market already priced it in.
Being "informed" doesn’t make you early . It usually makes you late .
________________________________________
2. The Chart Already Knows
Imagine a bullish surprise in the economy. You didn’t catch it live.
But when you open your chart, you see this:
📈 A bullish engulfing candle bouncing cleanly off major support.
That’s all you need. That’s your trade. You don’t need to know why it happened.
The chart speaks last. And the chart speaks loudest.
________________________________________
3. Price Is the Final Judge
All the noise — opinions, reports, breaking headlines — flows into a single output: price.
• Economic collapse? The chart shows a break.
• Political turmoil? Price still rejects resistance.
Price is truth.
Instead of asking: " What happened? ", start asking: " What is price doing? "
________________________________________
4. Real-Life Analogy
You don’t need to read the newspaper to know it’s raining. Just look out the window. 🌧️
Same with trading. Just look at the chart.
The price is your weather forecast. React to that. Not to noise.
________________________________________
5. What to Do Instead of Watching News:
• Draw clean support/resistance levels
• Wait for real confirmation (engulfings, breakouts, rejections)
• Manage risk — always
• Be patient. Let the market show its hand
________________________________________
Final Thought:
If something important happened, you’ll see it on the chart. You don’t need 10 sources. You don’t need speed. You need clarity.
Let the chart speak. It knows more than the news ever will.
Bullish bounce for the Fiber?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1270
1st Support: 1.1141
1st Resistance: 1.1427
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD FORECASTWhen I look this pair I really love the way that higher timeframe is looking like! Price has already shown the mass psychology and a strong retrace candle which gives a message of a strong reversal to the downside.
In the timeframe of entry I'm looking more of a structure development and insurance play. Let's watch this with a close eye and see what the market is going to give us!
Wishing you a good trading day and God bless!
EURUSD - Understanding PriceIn this video I go through what has been happening with EURUSD in the past week, where price has reached, where it is likely going, what has happened yesterday and where we are possibly going to go to today. Pretty straight forward stuff using good ol' ICT concepts.
I hope you find this video insightful, because it's the truth of the markets.
Good luck and happy trading!
- R2F Trading
EURUSD(20250424) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The United States hit a 16-month low in April. The total number of new home sales in the United States in March was an annualized to a new high since September 2024.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.1354
Support and resistance levels:
1.1485
1.1436
1.1404
1.1303
1.1272
1.1223
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.1354, consider buying, the first target price is 1.1404
If the price breaks through 1.1303, consider selling, the first target price is 1.1272
Weekly FOREX Forecast: Mid-Week UPDATES! In this video, we will update Sunday's forecasts for the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or other wise. In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
Thu 24th Apr 2025 EUR/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a EUR/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
EUR-USD Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is making a bearish
Correction but the pair will soon
Hit a horizontal support level
Of 1.1231 from where we
Will be expecting a local
Bullish rebound and a move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
All Time Frames Matter – From Micro to Macro If you’re only looking at one timeframe, you’re only seeing part of the story.
On the 6-Month Chart: We could be witnessing the early stages of a bullish cycle shift. However, I still need confirmation, specifically a price move above 1.25557. That’s my key macro level.
On the 18-Day Chart: A pullback seems likely, potentially into the 1.1192 range. This would allow the candle to cool off before its next decision point.
Zooming in to the 20-Hour Chart: I believe price could revisit the 1.1198–1.1200 zone, where it may form a cup or dip structure before climbing back toward 1.15729. That behavior would align with the broader bullish thesis.
This is why I never base decisions on a single chart. Each timeframe offers its own insight — but together, they tell the full narrative. That’s why I focus on zone behavior, candle reaction, and overall trend maturity.
📌 Lesson: Don’t settle for one lens. Train your eye to surf across the timeframes.
E/U Bullish E/U has been on a bullish Momentum Trend.
Structures has been broken.
We now expect price to get back to where it instituted the buys(Demand Zone) before we now scouting for a Buy to the SwingHigh(Supply Zone)as our TP📈
Remember,be Patient and see what the market will place on our face for entry 📈
EUR/USD Explosion or Trap?EUR Futures
Asset Managers: Strongly net long and continuously increasing since December 2024 → a clear sign of institutional confidence in the euro.
Leveraged Money: Also rising, moving from net short to net long → sentiment reversal even from speculators.
✅ Interpretation: Both institutional categories are bullish on the euro, suggesting potential upward support for EUR/USD.
USD Index Futures
Asset Managers: Decreasing since the end of February → reducing long exposure on the dollar.
Leveraged Money: Recovering from net short, but still uncertain → mixed sentiment.
⚠️ Interpretation: The dollar is structurally weakening. This reinforces the bullish bias on EUR/USD.
🧠 Technical Analysis – EUR/USD Weekly Chart
Current price: 1.13150, right in the middle of a weekly/monthly supply zone, marked by upper wicks → clear seller presence.
Price has made a strong rally from 1.03600, breaking through all intermediate supply zones.
RSI: Slightly declining after previously reaching overbought territory.
📌 Key levels:
Major support: 1.1000–1.1080
Structural resistance: 1.1350–1.1450 (current zone)
🧠 Technical Scenario:
If price holds above 1.1250, we could see an extension toward 1.1500.
If it breaks below 1.1200, a pullback toward 1.1080–1.1000 is likely.
✅ Trade Summary:
COT bias: Bullish EUR/USD → strong EUR, weakening USD
Technical: Watch price behavior in the 1.1350 zone → if rejection continues, expect a technical retracement before potential continuation.
🎯 Potential Setups:
Long on pullback toward 1.1080
Breakout long above 1.1450 → targeting 1.1600
Short-term short if bearish price action appears in the current zone
EUR/USD: To buy or not to buy(sorry Shakespeare)To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
Hello traders
Straight from the Bart's mouth. Should we continue to duck and dive through this chaos and continue trading? Or will we drown in this sea of troubles?
Well, I shorted EUR/USD last night at 1.1535 with an eye towards 1.1413 as a purely technical play after the tirade to fire Powell which we all know is so much baloney because he is just the mouthpiece of the FOMC, not the ultimate decision maker. The pop higher over the weekend was illiquid because of the Easter weekend.
I closed my short at 1.1420 and was planning on shorting again at 1.1480 but the live on TV announcement that he has no intention to fire Powell upended that apple cart.
I have initiated a short position at 1.1405 after the retracement from the 1.1308 low with an eye towards 1.1000 but who knows?
He has now softened his stance on the Chinese tariffs but once again, don't hold your breath.
The only certainty we can count on is that there will be continuous uncertainty.
Gold has a shooting star on the 2D chart and DXY has a long tailed Doji on the downside.
Long story short, keep swimming. We chose this career voluntarily and while we will never outsmart the market, we can definitely switch from free style swimming to back stroke to Esther Williams water ballet BUT don't just give up.
Good luck all.