USDEUR trade ideas
EUR/USD AccumulationOn the 5-minute timeframe, buying activity initiates, signaling the potential end of the downtrend. The first indication of upward momentum appears following the formation of a range and a subsequent liquidity sweep. Price then retests the prior low with diminished volume but fails to break below it, suggesting that selling pressure is being absorbed by buyers. This behavior reflects accumulation by informed participants positioning for a move higher. As demand begins to outweigh supply, clear signs of strength emerge
Entry: 1.15765
Take Profit: 1.16279
Stop Loss: 1.15621
EURUSD Trade Signal – BUY NOW Entry Point: 1.14160EURUSD Trade Signal – BUY NOW
Entry Point: 1.14160
🎯 1st Target: 1.14500
🎯 Final Target: 1.14900
📈 EURUSD showing bullish potential
🔍 Strong support zone at 1.14000
📊 Clean price action setup on H1/H4
🟢 Buyers stepping in with volume
🧠 Risk Management is Essential
📉 Suggested Stop-Loss: Below 1.13900
⚖️ Risk 1–2% of total capital per trade
🛡️ Always secure your capital first
🧭 Stick to your trading plan
⏱️ Wait for a solid entry confirmation
📌 Patience pays in forex
📊 Set your TP & SL — then let it run
💬 Monitor news that may affect EUR/USD
✅ Trade with discipline, not emotion
📢 Smart risk, smart rewards
EUR/USD remains bullish
💡Message Strategy
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued to rise in the European session, gradually approaching the previous high of around 1.1600. The US dollar continued to be under pressure due to the market's rising expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year and the increasing uncertainty surrounding the US foreign trade policy.
US President Trump recently said that he would send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks to notify them of unilateral new tariff measures, which once again plunged the market into a state of worry. In addition, the US CPI annual rate in May was 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%, which strengthened the bet that the Federal Reserve will restart the interest rate cut cycle in September.
At the same time, the relatively hawkish signal of "interest rates close to neutral levels" released by ECB President Lagarde, coupled with the market's rethinking of the role of the euro in the context of "de-dollarization", jointly supported the upward structure of the exchange rate. Currently, traders are paying close attention to the US PPI data and initial jobless claims to be released in the evening, which may have a traction on the short-term trend of the US dollar.
📊Technical aspects
Judging from the chart, the current price of EUR/USD is near the upper track of the Bollinger Band (1.1548), and the Bollinger Band is in an expanding state. The width of the Bollinger Band has widened, reflecting the increase in volatility, suggesting that there may be a possibility of a large-volume breakthrough in the future.
In terms of MACD indicator, the DIFF line continues to rise and forms a golden cross with the DEA line. Although the momentum of the bar chart is not strong, it has not turned negative, indicating that the bullish momentum is moderate; RSI is running around 64, close to the overbought area but no divergence is formed. The market momentum is bullish and the technical side is slightly bullish.
Short-term support is at 1.1500 and 1.1440; if it effectively breaks through 1.1600, the upside space may reach 1.17.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 1.1450-1.1550
USD Weakness Persists: Can EUR/USD Target 1.18?
The EUR/USD exchange rate has continued to strengthen, breaking through the psychological barrier of 1.1600 during the intraday session, marking the first time it has reached this level since November 2021. The pair surged to an intraday high of 1.1630, driven by the confluence of a persistently weakening US dollar and enhanced economic resilience in the Eurozone.
Technically, the EUR/USD currently exhibits a robust bullish pattern. If it can sustain above the 1.1600 threshold, it is poised to test the 1.1800 resistance zone. Conversely, a false breakout followed by a retracement below 1.1500 would warrant caution, as it may signal a attenuation of bullish momentum and potential reversal risks.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my EURUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
EURO - Price will exit from pennant and then make correctionHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price reached $1.0950 level and then made a correction movement, after which started to grow in a pennant.
Price made an upward impulse from support line of pennant and broke $1.0950 level, after which made a retest.
Then price continued to move up and reached $1.1300 level, and soon broke it too, and then made a correction movement.
After this, price rose to resistance line of pennant and then started to decline and soon broke $1.1300 level again.
But later it boucned from support line and backed up, and even now it trades very close to resistance line.
In my mind, Euro can rise a little, thereby exiting from pennant and then make a correction to $1.1300 level.
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EURUSD broke the Resistance level 1.14960 👀 Possible scenario:
The euro rose 0.56% against the dollar on June 11 after President Trump signaled flexibility in trade talks, suggesting a possible delay to the July 8 tariff deadline. This eased market fears of escalating tensions.
Meanwhile, growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, driven by soft data and dovish comments, added pressure on the dollar and boosted demand for alternative currencies. Markets now eye the June 12 U.S. PPI report (expected +0.1% core). A surprise uptick could push EUR/USD toward the 1.15780 level.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.13640
Resistance level is located at 1.16440
The surge in the euro was expected
💡Message Strategy
Since the beginning of this trading week, a number of economic data released by the United States have been weak. Following the decline in the manufacturing PMI, the ISM service PMI for May released on Wednesday fell to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year. In addition, the ADP employment data was also far below expectations, with only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, which strengthened the market's concerns about the risk of a US recession, thereby dragging down the US dollar.
At the same time, risk aversion and uncertainty in the United States have not improved significantly, and trade tensions, debt prospects and weak US bond yields have put pressure on the US dollar. Obviously, in the game between eurozone monetary policy and US economic data, the euro wins.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart, the exchange rate has maintained a strong oscillation pattern since mid-April, and has generally been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The upper track of the Bollinger Bands is currently at 1.1471, and the lower track is at 1.1118. The Bollinger Bands are slightly open, indicating a rebound in volatility.
The MACD indicator shows that the double lines form a golden cross, and the bar chart turns from green to red, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening; the RSI indicator remains near 57, slightly in the neutral to bullish area, and has not yet reached the overbought level. The overall technical pattern tends to fluctuate upward. If it breaks through the 1.1500 area, it will continue to rise.
At present, the main idea is still to do more on the callback, and do not blindly chase the short.
Long Position: 1.14450-1.14650
EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on.
The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16
Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene.
For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value.
The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness.
So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time.
Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off
Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy.
Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news .
Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar.
The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party.
On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America.
US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut?
US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve.
So what does the market do? It prices in a cut.
Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny.
ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises?
Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency.
Here’s why it’s rising instead:
Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon.
The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms.
Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life.
Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out.
Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan
From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction.
From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.”
Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
Get Ready – A Pullback May Be ImminentEUR/USD has rallied impressively, gaining nearly 1,400 pips from its February 2025 low. The pair recently surged to revisit a price level last seen in November 2021. However, after such a strong bullish move, a correction appears likely.
I’m anticipating a potential drop of at least 500 pips from the current level after hitting a strong resistance on multiple time frame.
Check the chart for more details.
Stay safe and trade smart.
Judas Swing Monday Recap – Sticking to the Plan Pays 09/06/2025In case you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy, here’s the strategy in a nutshell:
It’s a classic price manipulation strategy where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), usually after the 00:00–08:30 EST window, before sharply reversing. This tactic is often used by smart money to trap retail traders around key highs/lows, followed by a reversal into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) for entry confirmation.
We began Monday spotting a textbook Judas Swing on FX:EURUSD which was our first trade of the day. Price took out session lows, grabbing liquidity, then gave us a break of structure to the upside and a clean reversal into the FVG.
We entered long with our stop loss below the manipulation low. The trade moved nicely into profit and came within points of our target but just as we were anticipating a clean 1:2, price stalled and reversed aggressively, stopping us out.
Trade Outcome: Loss
Risk-Reward: -1%
Lesson: Even the most valid setups will sometimes fail
The next Judas swing setup came on $GBPUSD. Price swept the low of the zone, then gave a break of structure, with price retracing into the FVG. We entered long, placing the stop loss 10 pips below entry price.
The trade rallied hard post-entry, hitting our target with minimal drawdown
Trade Outcome: Win
Risk-Reward: +2%
This is why we take every valid setup. The win here offset the earlier FX:EURUSD loss, keeping us net even on the day at this point
The final Judas swing setup on Monday was on OANDA:AUDUSD , and it couldn’t have been cleaner. After a strong sweep of previous lows, price reversed and broke structure convincingly. An FVG formed and price retraced into it beautifully.
We entered long, placing the stop below the liquidity sweep. Price then rallied steadily throughout the session, and retraced almost hitting our stop loss but turned around and hit our 1:2 target.
Trade Outcome: Win
Risk-Reward: +2%
Despite starting the day with a loss, staying disciplined and trading all valid Judas setups left us with:
1 loss ( FX:EURUSD -1%)
2 wins ( FX:GBPUSD +2%, OANDA:AUDUSD +2%)
Net Gain: +3R
This is why a rules-based approach beats emotional trading. Stick to the process, and the edge takes care of the rest.
EU| Workflow - End of Week but Still in SyncPrice still pushing with strong bullish conviction, so I’m just flowing with it and waiting on that precision entry — nothing forced, just discipline and patience.
Even though we’re nearing the end of the week, the workflow and higher timeframe analysis still align, so I’m staying ready. I’ve got my zones mapped out and I’m watching for price to pull back into that green zone POI. Once that mitigation happens, I’ll drop to the 1M for the structure shift and look for that 5M LH break to confirm my entry.
Just letting the setup mature and keeping emotions out of the way. 📊
Always open to hearing how others are viewing EU right now — let’s elevate the convo while we wait on the market to give us the greenlight. 🎯
#SMC #EU #SmartMoney #TopDownPrecision #InducementKing #JuicemannnStyle #ForexFlow #EndOfWeekExecution
Bless Trading!
EURUSD Outlook – Long, Medium & Short-Term Analysis🔹 Weekly Chart:
The broader structure remains technically bearish. We've recently seen a trend reset, which could mark the beginning of a fresh downside leg.
🔹 Daily Chart:
A clear bearish trend reversal pattern has formed, accompanied by a manipulation phase. A confirmed break structure is now in place. As long as price remains below 1.15734, short positions remain valid.
🔹 4H Chart:
Currently in a range-bound phase. A confirmed break below 1.1371 will be a key bearish trigger for potential selling opportunities.
🔹 1H Chart:
Still ranging, but a valid Lower Low (LL) has already printed. A second LL below 1.1371 would confirm a short-term bearish continuation.
On the flip side, a break above 1.1495 would open the door for a bullish move in the short term.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Bullish above: 1.1495
Bearish below: 1.1371
Critical invalidation: 1.15734
Trade safe and stay disciplined.