Long-term Elliott wavesMy new version!!!
After 2 or 3 years...
I came back..
Big position and big profit in EUR/USD
Don't miss this super buy
USDEUR trade ideas
EURUSDBreak of structure to the downside after sweeping buy side liquidity. Will hoold until next POI hits. Currently running around 2-3R with stops at break even.
EUROUSD 4H LONG (ALL Targets DONE)This position worked perfectly.
Now it is important to wait for the correction structure, as it was indicated in the previous update post:
Considering the current formations on the 1D TF, the probability of price growth to the current maximum increases multiple times. Locally, I expect to see a price correction (a rollback next week) and preferably with a depiction of a bullish imbalance. After which, you can work long for a whole month until 1.12758
Quarterly Theory "QT"
Introduction to Quarterly Theory (QT)
Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles.
Combining QT (Quarterly Theory) concepts with basic ICT concepts leads to greater accuracy.
Understanding QT allows you to be flexible. It adapts to any trading style as it is universal across all time frames.
QT eliminates ambiguity by providing specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades
.
THE CYCLE
Annual Cycle - 3 quarters each
Monthly Cycle - 1 week each
Weekly Cycle - 1 day each*
Daily Cycle - 6 hours each
Session Cycle - 90 minutes each
*Monday to Thursday, Friday has its own specific function .
Annual Cycle:
Q1 JANUARY - MARCH
Q2 APRIL - JUNE
Q3 JULY - SEPTEMBER
Q4 OCT - DECEMBER
Monthly Cycle**:
Q1 FIRST WEEK
Q2 SECOND WEEK
Q3 THIRD WEEK
Q4 FOURTH WEEK
Weekly Cycle*:
Q1 MONDAY
Q2 TUESDAY
Q3 WEDNESDAY
Q4 THURSDAY
Daily Cycle:
Q1 ASIA
Q2 LONDON
Q3 NEW YORK
Q4 AFTERNOON
**Monthly Cycle starts with the first full week of the month.
*Friday has its own cycle, which is why it is not listed.
Q1 indicates the quarters that follow.
If Q1 expands, Q2 is likely to consolidate.
If Q1 consolidates, Q2 is likely to expand.
TRUE OPENS
True price opens are the beginning of Q2 in each cycle. It validates key levels.
What are the true opens?
Yearly: First Monday of April (Q2)
Monthly: Second Monday of the month (Q2)
Weekly: Second daily candle of the week
Daily: Start of the London session (6 hours after the open of the daily candle)
Asia - London - NY - Evening: 90 minutes after the open of the 6-hour candle.
DIAGRAM:
Q1 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation.
Q2 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this).
Q3 (D) Distribution (Trade this).
Q4 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter.
Q1 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter.
Q2 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation.
Q3 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this).
Q4 (D) Distribution (Trade this).
ANNUAL CYCLE:
MONTHLY CYCLE:
WEEKLY CYCLE:
DAILY CYCLE:
sellWhen discussing "EURUSD," we're referring to the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the United States Dollar (USD). It's one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the world. Here's a breakdown of what that means an
EURUSD – Remember, Remember the 5th of NovemberIn the UK, we celebrate the Gun Powder plot with fireworks every November 5th, when Guy Fawkes and a group of men attempted to blow-up the houses of parliament in 1605.
There is a poem, written by John Milton in 1626, that starts ‘Remember, Remember, the 5th of November’ and EURUSD traders might do well to keep this in mind, although here, we are only referring to the 1.0937 high for the currency pair posted on November 5th 2024.
It was on this day EURUSD traded to a high of 1.0937, from which a sharp 6.95% sell-off in price materialised, into 1.0177, the January 13th 2025 low.
After seeing such a failure and price rejection from this 1.0937 high, it may well now be viewed by traders as a potentially important resistance level to be monitored on a closing basis.
EURUSD Price Action in March
Having seen a successful closing break on March 4th 2025 above what was an important resistance area at 1.0533/34 (December 17th 2024 and January 27th 2025 highs), EURUSD has enjoyed a sustained phase of price strength, a move that on Tuesday traded to an intraday high of 1.0947, but then failed to close above the 1.0937 resistance we have identified.
This means, the level is still intact on a closing basis and could therefore be an area that might continue to be important to watch over coming trading sessions.
Potential Support Levels To Watch If a Dip Materialises
Since the latest upside move began on February 28th 2025, EURUSD has seen a strong advance with no significant downside correction in price, meaning, as yet, there has been no attempt to unwind the current upside extremes.
It is possible traders may view the 1.0937 resistance, as an area to revert to the side-lines and await a sell-off in price, with the view to perhaps re-enter longs at a lower level against potential support levels.
Potential Support
The first level to watch could be the weeks current low posted on Monday, which stands at 1.0805. This may well be viewed as a possible support again, having seen a strong rally develop from it so far this week.
However, it is perfectly normal after such a sustained advance, that prices may see deeper declines. This is where we look to use Fibonacci retracements, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February 28th to March 11th advance stands at 1.0721. This could potentially prove to be a stronger support level, if a deeper decline materialises over coming sessions.
What if the Resistance At 1.0937 is Broken?
As the chart above shows, if successful upside closing breaks of 1.0937 develop, it may lead to a more sustained phase of price strength. The next resistance level could then prove to be 1.0997, which was the October 8th 2024 high, and if this level were to give way on a closing basis, then possibly a move to the September 25th 2024 high at 1.1214 could be seen.
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Hanzo | EURUSD Breaks Structure – Confirm the Next Move🆚 EUR/USD – The Way of the Silent Blade
⭐️ We do not predict—we calculate.
We do not react—we execute.
Patience is our shield. Precision is our sword.
🩸 market is a battlefield where hesitation means death. The untrained fall into traps, chasing shadows, believing in illusions. But we are not the crowd. We follow no signal but the one left behind by Smart Money. Their footprints are our way forward.
🩸 Bearish Structure Shatters
Key Break Confirms the Path – 1.08900 Zone
our reversal always at key level
even a reversal area is well studded
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🔻 This is the threshold where the tides shift. If price pierces this level with authority, it is no accident—it is designed. The liquidity pool above has been set, and the institutions will claim their prize. Volume must confirm the strike. A clean break, a strong push, and the path is set.
Watch the volume. Watch the momentum. Strike without doubt
EURUSD gains bearish momentumAfter Trumpinho stated increasing he may increase wine taxes in case Canada do the same on whiskey. The financial turbulence is just winding up, as US PPI data appaered lower as previously expected. All EUR based pairs are turned down.
EURUSD LONDON SESSION LONGS IDEACleared Asian session low and prev daily low.
Currently I'm precipitating that the market will seek some internal liquidity
Currencies = TrustEverything grows from trust, military relationships, trade relationships and currency relationships. Military and trade relationships can take months to years to break down after trust is broken, however currency relationships are real-time measures of that trust.
You can see the changing in the world order by looking at how currencies perform in relation to what was the worlds strongest bond of trust the EuroDollar which represents the currency trading relationship between the US and Europe.
EURUSD 30K PROFITS LIVE TRADE EXACUTION SHORTUNEMPOLYMENT CLAIMS NEWS Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy; The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect 'Actual' less than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
EURUSD INTRADAY Bullish continuation supported at 1.0809The EUR/USD currency pair is exhibiting a bullish sentiment, underpinned by the prevailing long-term uptrend. Recent intraday price action shows a bullish breakout from a sideways consolidation phase, with the previous resistance now acting as a new support zone.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Zone: The critical support level is at 1.0809, marking the previous consolidation price range. A corrective pullback toward this level, followed by a bullish rebound, would reinforce the uptrend.
Upside Targets: If the pair sustains a bullish bounce from 1.0809, it may aim for the next resistance at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1020 over a longer timeframe.
Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break below the 1.0809 support level, especially with a daily close below it, would invalidate the bullish outlook. This could trigger a deeper retracement towards the 1.0770 support level, with further downside potential toward 1.0700.
Conclusion:
The bullish sentiment for EUR/USD remains favorable as long as the 1.0809 support holds. Traders should keep a close eye on this level to gauge potential bullish continuation. A successful bounce from 1.0809 may present buying opportunities, aiming for the upside targets. Conversely, a break and daily close below 1.0809 would signal caution and increase the probability of a deeper pullback.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD - Rally overextended? The EUR/USD pair appears to be approaching a significant correction phase after its recent rally to the 1.09 level. As shown on the chart, we're expecting a pullback from current levels, with two key support zones (marked in blue) serving as potential targets for this retracement. The upper blue zone around 1.0650-1.0680 represents the first support area where buyers might step in, while the lower blue zone near 1.0550-1.0580 provides a secondary support level should the correction deepen. These zones represent previous price action areas of significance where demand could emerge. The downward arrows illustrate the expected path of this correction, suggesting a measured move lower before potentially finding stability.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Euro Surges, Dollar Stumbles! What’s Next for EUR/USD?With the recent decline of the US dollar to its lowest level since November 2024, the euro has surged, reaching 1.09365 its highest level since November 2024. This rise is primarily driven by the recent weakness of the US dollar.
Possible Scenarios for EUR/USD in the Coming Period:
Scenario 1:
The pair continues its general upward trend, forming higher highs. A pullback to 1.08046 would be seen as a positive signal for further upside, targeting 1.09044. However, this scenario is relatively weaker due to the recent sharp rally in EUR/USD, which limits the bullish momentum.
Scenario 2:
If the price declines and closes below 1.07658 on a daily basis, this would signal a trend reversal from bullish to bearish, opening the door for further declines toward 1.06370 and 1.05592. A key confirmation for this bearish outlook in the short-to-medium term would be the RSI dropping below 50 and holding there.
Market Watch:
Markets are awaiting the US Producer Price Index (PPI) monthly report today. Forecasts suggest a decline of 0.1%, bringing it to 0.3%, while the Core PPI is expected to remain stable at 0.3%. Any reading above expectations would be positive for the US dollar, impacting EUR/USD movements.
Additionally, US jobless claims data will be released, with expectations of an increase from 221K to 226K. A further rise in jobless claims would be negative for the US dollar!
EURUSD next move possible if trend breakout.EURUSD forecast and technical analysis H1 Time Frame next move possible. If this trend line breakout. Not financial advice.
Smart Money Buy Setup on EURUSDThis trade is based on a potential liquidity grab at the recent lows, followed by bullish confirmation. The entry is well-placed near a demand zone, with a tight stop-loss below the recent low and a target towards the previous supply zone.
Entry: After a possible stop hunt below the previous structure.
Stop-Loss: Below the liquidity zone to avoid being trapped.
Take Profit: Aiming for a strong resistance level above.
If price continues to hold above this level, bullish momentum could push higher. A clean risk-to-reward ratio setup, aligning with smart money principles. 🚀
BEARISH then Bullish EURUSD1. Fundamentally EURUSD is bearish,
2. cup and handle formation confirms the bearish move.
3. Fin 0.618 retracement can take price action to 1.618 level that is same level of cup and handle P
The Day Ahead - ECB Speak & US Jobless ClaimsThursday March 13
Data: US February PPI, initial jobless claims, Q4 household change in net worth, UK February RICS house price balance, Italy Q4 unemployment rate, Canada January building permits
Central banks: ECB's Guindos, Holzmann, Villeroy and Nagel speak
Earnings: Enel, Generali, Dollar General
Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD in Trend ReversalAfter the bearish divergence is observed, we expect the price to take liquidity once forming a double top and then continue downwards.
Sell Limit
Entry Price 1.0950
Stop Loss 1.1005
TP 1.0730
Lot Size 0.45
Risk 1%
Eurousd technical analysis.This image is a price chart of the EUR/USD currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe from TradingView.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Formation: A descending trendline (blue) indicates a bearish trend.
2. Support Zone: A purple horizontal zone represents a support level around the 1.0860-1.0870 range.
3. Price Action: The price is currently at 1.08694, showing a small decline (-0.16%).
4. Forecast: The chart has a blue projection arrow indicating an expected drop in price after a possible small upward retracement.
5. News Events: Three circular icons with the U.S. flag indicate upcoming economic events that could impact price movement.
This suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend if the support zone is broken.
EUR/USD Triangle Pattern (13.3.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0805
2nd Support – 1.0771
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EURUSDEURUSD has gotten to the Daily OB where we are looking for possible reversal confirmations. And here on the 15mins - price has Changed Character and also confirmed with a new BOS, before the BOS, we can see how price has reacted, creating even more liquidity - equal highs close to our entry zone which is above 50% fib retracement. I am looking to short price from the 1.09048 zone targeting the 1.08416 zone where we have a possible roadblock for price to stop and continue the buys on the 1H TF, or sell all the way to the 1.06068 zone to facilitate a new buys.
EURUSD - Ready to correct, of course, a little deeperGiven the resistance zone on the upper timeframes (weekly and daily) and the signs of a correction on the lower timeframes, we will soon have a deep correction to reach the discount areas on the upper timeframes.
Of course, the analysis needs to be updated in the future and for now we will focus on the short-term price movement.
