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USDEUR trade ideas

Back testing Journal March 13 Trade ExecutionBack testing Journal March 13 Trade Execution Price was in a double discount on my analysis in Asia. DXY/GBP were on their 50 With Price consolidating in NTH Price consolidated in a discount expanded a bit retraced a bit creating equal highs. 1 macro fakes in a judus swing to session equal lows 2 macro Price is in the mog and I wanted Price to continue lowering to the sell stops, to which it did. Backing testing when the bias is know I have witness price bounce off the 50 and head in the direction of its bias in the range its trading. With that logic with time of day, liquidity taken, bias is bull 2:57 I entered for a long. I watched it retrace and knock me out- no loss on profits my stop loss was my entry 4 macro with the DXY clearing liquidity to the high side its bias is bear, and on its .79 session range I then thought a long was forming. I went in 3:57 Price was showing continued signs of high resistance trading with whip saw candles so I exited a minute later the 4:15 candle whipped and glad I got out-managed a couple pips and no loss. These PMI days in London are proving to be holding price is a narrow range of high resistance. First clue to stay clear NOTE due to EUR now not trading diametrically opposed to DXY there is a lot more mental capital being used and you must anchor ideas from GBP/DXY. NOTE every day you get better at entering right or wrong. NOTE every day you get better of not getting scared out just because price retraces a bit NOTE before every session you must identify what Asia has done, what stops were taken, what place in the market discount to premium from NY to Asia for where is price likely to draw to. Hindsight price should have lowered and it did rebalancing the FVG it was it before going higher. Big picture and better notes of ALL TF and all liquidity. Good Job today. You didnt break any rules!
by LeanLena
EUR/USD Drops, Awaits US PPIEUR/USD fell to around 1.0880 in Thursday’s Asian session, pressured by rising US-EU trade tensions. Market focus is on key US data, including February’s PPI and weekly jobless claims. Trump warned of retaliation against the EU’s response to his 25% steel and aluminum tariffs. The European Commission announced €26 billion ($28.4 billion) in counter-tariffs on US goods, effective April 1, with more expected mid-April. Despite trade risks, EUR/USD’s downside may be limited as concerns over Trump’s policies fueling a US recession weigh on the dollar. Inflation data came in lower than expected, easing market fears but keeping sentiment fragile. Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650. 
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 13, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims EURUSD: On Wednesday, EUR/USD traders adopted a more cautious approach, allowing Fiber to retreat by approximately a third of a cent and pushing bids back below the significant price target of 1.09000. Despite the significant recovery in EUR/USD over the past couple of weeks, buyers are regaining ground after Fiber corrected more than 5 per cent in less than a fortnight. This week's European economic data is minimal due to the prominence of trade war concerns and US inflation data. On Wednesday, the US imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, a significant escalation in President Donald Trump's efforts to wage a trade war with all of the country's allies. Meanwhile, US consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell more than expected in February, with core CPI at 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 2.8 per cent year-on-year, slightly faster than forecasts. While the figure remains above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target, it has raised hopes for a rate adjustment. CME's FedWatch tool now shows equal odds of a Fed rate cut in June compared to July. It has been almost four years since US core inflation reached 'transitory' levels. Barring a brief slowdown in Q3 2024, key inflation indicators have remained stable since June 2023, when post-Covid inflation fell to an annualised rate of 3%. Despite the lower CPI reading in February, there are indications of potential challenges for policymakers: gasoline and heating oil prices fell 3.1% and 5.1%, respectively, while natural gas prices increased by 6%. Additionally, housing price inflation increased by 4.2% compared to the previous year, while a modest 0.3% decrease in automobile prices concealed a 2.6% year-on-year rise in food price inflation. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.08600, SL 1.09300, TP 1.07700
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our sell entry at 1.0897, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.0818, aligning close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1005, above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
**EUR/USD Head & Shoulders – Strong Sell Setup!### 📉 **EUR/USD Head & Shoulders – Strong Sell Setup!** 🔥 🚀 **Trade Setup Details:** 📌 **Pattern:** 🎭 Head & Shoulders (Bearish Reversal) 📍 **Entry Point:** **1.09000** ✅ (Neckline Break Confirmation) ⛔ **Stop-Loss (SL):** **1.09500** ❌ (Above Right Shoulder for Protection) 🎯 **Target (TP):** **1.08100** 🎯 (Measured Move from Head to Neckline) 📊 **EMA 50 Confirmation:** If price is **below 50 EMA**, bearish trend continues! 🔻 ### 💰 **Risk Management (Trade Smart!)** ⚖️ **Risk per Trade:** **50 pips** (1.09500 - 1.09000) 💎 **Potential Reward:** **90 pips** (1.09000 - 1.08100) 🎯 **Risk-Reward Ratio:** **1:1.8** – Great RRR! 📈 ### 🎯 **Trade Execution Tips:** ✔️ **Wait for a Clean Break & Retest** at **1.09000** before entering! 🚀 ✔️ **Monitor EMA 50** to confirm bearish momentum 📉 ✔️ **Stick to Proper Position Sizing** – No Overleveraging! 💰 ✔️ **Exit if Price Retraces Above 1.09500** – Control Your Risk! 🚦 🔥 **This is a high-probability short setup! Stay disciplined & trade smart!** 💪💵
Short
by TradingStar090
EUR/USD Comprehensive Analysis as of March 13, 2025EUR/USD Comprehensive Analysis as of March 13, 2025 This analysis delves into the EUR/USD currency pair, utilizing technical and fundamental perspectives to formulate a forecast. Note that market conditions can change rapidly, so always conduct due diligence before entering any trades. Fundamental Overview Key Factors: Economic Reports: Eurozone Economic Indicators: Watch for recent GDP data, employment figures, and inflation rates (CPI and PPI) which can further influence the euro's strength. U.S. Economic Data: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, particularly after recent employment reports and inflation numbers. Any unexpected shifts can lead to volatility in USD. Central Bank Commentary: Both the ECB and the Fed provide insights into their monetary policy stances. Hawkish comments could strengthen their respective currencies, while dovish stances might weaken them. Global Events: Monitor geopolitical events such as fluctuations in oil prices, the status of U.S.-China relations, or tensions in the Eurozone, as these factors can influence market sentiment. Technical Analysis Multiple Timeframe Perspectives Daily Chart Analysis: Trend Direction: The pair has shown a range-bound movement recently, oscillating between levels. Watch for clear direction indicators. Key Levels: Support: 1.0800 (recent lows indicating buyers) Resistance: 1.1200 (a critical barrier acting as resistance) 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Price Action: Observing oscillations between support and resistance, analyze immediate price movements for breakouts. Technical Indicators: Look for bullish/bearish divergence between price and momentum indicators like RSI or Stochastic. 1-Hour Chart Analysis: Short-term Signals: Use indicators such as Bollinger Bands or Moving Averages to identify short-term trading opportunities. Recent Highs and Lows: Tighten your focus to develop entry points based on recent swing highs and lows. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: 1.0800: Psychological support level that has held previously. 1.0750: A minor but significant level if price declines further. Resistance Levels: 1.1200: A vital resistance level that the bulls need to overcome. 1.1250: Secondary resistance level which acts as a point of interest for bullish targets. Breakout Points Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout and close above 1.1200 with volume can trigger additional buying pressure, targeting 1.1250 and potentially 1.1300. Bearish Scenario: A decisive breach below 1.0800 may signal a shift into bear territory, targeting 1.0750 and 1.0700 for bearish traders. Detailed Trade Setup Bullish Trade Setup Entry Point: 1.09592 (triggered by bullish confirmation above resistance). Stop Loss: 1.09000 Take Profit: 1.1032,1.1132,1.1300 ). Bearish Trade Setup Entry Point: 1.0780 (once price confirms a breakdown below support). Stop Loss: 1.0810 (30 pips above entry to manage risk). Take Profit: 1.0700 (approximately 80 pips down, enabling a favorable risk/reward). Risk Management Risk/Reward Ratio: Aim for a minimum 1:2 ratio, which might include wider stops or targets depending on volatility. Position Sizing: Ensure only a small percentage (1-2%) of total capital is risked on a single trade. Use proper calculations to determine your lot size. Market Monitoring: Always stay informed with real-time updates on economic data and news that can influence currency pairs
Long
by svignesh7043
EUR/USD Short: Bearish trend continues, will be go down "*EUR/USD Short Opportunity on 30m Chart* A bearish trend continues to dominate the EUR/USD pair, with a potential short opportunity emerging on the 30m chart. The recent uptrend has shown signs of exhaustion, and selling pressure is starting to build. - *Technical Analysis:* - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, indicating a potential pullback. - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bearish crossover. - The chart is forming a lower high, indicating a potential trend reversal. It's not financial advice
Long
by Mr_jeff82
EUR/USD: The Euro Stays in Overbought TerritoryThe pair has been rising for the last five sessions, gaining approximately 1.4% , as expansionary policies in European countries have restored confidence in the euro. In contrast, the U.S. dollar continues to struggle with maintaining consistent demand due to the ongoing tariff battle led by the White House. Accelerated Movement: Since March 3rd, EUR/USD has experienced growth of over 5%, driven by strong short-term bullish momentum. Currently, the price is slowly approaching a key resistance zone, but recent price oscillations suggest that bullish momentum is fading, which could lead to short-term bearish corrections. RSI Indicator: The RSI line has started oscillating above the 70 level, which is the official overbought zone of the indicator. This suggests that the balance between buying and selling pressure has been lost, with bullish momentum fully dominating the market. The increasing speed of demand for EUR/USD may indicate a potential emergence of bearish corrections in the short term. MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram remains at its highest levels of the year, suggesting that buying pressure may be entering a phase of constant exhaustion. In the long run, this could also open the possibility of selling corrections in the upcoming sessions. Key Levels: 1.1000 – Tentative Resistance: A potential psychological barrier that the price may face in its prolonged bullish streak. Oscillations above this level could confirm sustained buying pressure and signal the beginning of stronger upward movements in the chart. 1.07944 – Near-term Support: A neutral zone where the price has shown stability in the short term. This level may be important for potential selling corrections in the next trading sessions. 1.06173 – Distant Support: A key level corresponding to the highs reached in December 2024. Bearish oscillations reaching this level could jeopardize the current strong bullish trend. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
EU | Hourly Timeframe Analysis We are still bullish until we break the hourly swing low. Until that happens, I am still looking for buys. I would like to see price come down further into this hourly order block which also holds a 30M imbalance inside of it, fill that imbalance, get a shift in price on lower time frame, and then ride price back to the swing high. There is some daily resistance not too much higher above the swing high that I marked out so we could see some sell off from that point but we will see. Trade Safe -Remzy
Long
by RemzyFX
3
Eurousd technical analysis.The image is a TradingView chart of the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe. The chart includes technical analysis elements: 1. Support Zone (Purple Box) – A horizontal purple zone at the bottom indicates a support level where price has bounced previously. 2. Downtrend Line (Blue Line) – A descending trendline is drawn, connecting lower highs, acting as resistance. 3. Projected Price Movement (Blue Arrows) – A potential bullish breakout scenario is outlined: A possible small pullback forming a "W" pattern. A breakout above the descending trendline, leading to a price increase. 4. Symbols on Chart: A lightning bolt inside a circle near the support zone (likely indicating a key level or liquidity area). A U.S.
Long
by Rickypher
1
EURUSD: Trump’s trade war crosses the Atlantic You may be sick of hearing about tariffs, but they are currently the catalyst for a huge amount of volatility in the market and a huge amount of trading opportunities. And now Trump’s trade war has crossed the Atlantic Today, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's recent increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Targeted products include Harley-Davidsons, bourbon, and jeans—key American exports that have been caught in previous trade disputes. The EU has said it remains open to negotiation but has not ruled out further action. In response, Trump vowed to retaliate, stating, “Of course I’m going to respond.” The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows the pair could fall into a larger corrective decline, given overbought RSI conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD: Overbought but 1H Channel Up is still intact.EURUSD is massively overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.384, MACD = 0.012, ADX = 38.553) but on the short term we have a Channel Up pattern that's good until broken. The 1H MA50-MA100 Zone is in firm support of this structure and every time a bearish wave like the current one bottoms inside this pattern, the price rallies by +1.15%. So as long as the 1H MA100 holds, buy (TP = 1.09800). If the 1H MA100 fails and breaks, sell and aim for the 1H MA200 (TP = 1.07500> ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
1
2025 ICT Mentorship: Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 4_Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro Greetings Traders! In this video, we dive into the fundamental concept of Premium and Discount Price Delivery—a crucial aspect of smart money trading that helps us understand how institutions approach the market with precision and efficiency. Understanding Currency Pairs Before we explore premium and discount dynamics, it's essential to grasp the basics of currency pairs. A currency pair, like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, represents the value of one currency against another. For example, EUR/USD shows how many U.S. dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one euro (the base currency). Just like any other tradable asset, currency pairs fluctuate in value due to various economic and market factors. Trading Is Part of Everyday Life Believe it or not, everyone in the world is a trader. Whether you're buying groceries at a store or negotiating for goods and services, you're participating in trading activities daily. Some people aim to purchase items at a discount, while others can afford to pay a premium—it’s simply part of life. However, banks and financial institutions take trading to another level. They don’t just trade haphazardly—they operate with extreme precision, aiming to make high-quality investments by executing trades at premium prices and targeting discount levels. This strategic approach allows them to capitalize on market inefficiencies and ensure profitable outcomes. Why Premium and Discount Matter? The concept of premium and discount price delivery is foundational for understanding how the market moves. By recognizing where the market is trading at a premium (overvalued) versus a discount (undervalued), traders can make more informed decisions and align their strategies with institutional order flow. Stay tuned as we break down how to identify these zones on a chart and how to incorporate them into your trading strategy. Make sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an update! Happy Trading, The_Architect
Education
by The_Archi-tect