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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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USDEUR trade ideas

Possible Euro StrengthI’m monitoring for Euro strength against the US Dollar in the near to mid-term. Based on my data, the risk-to-reward ratio appears very favorable. I plan to start building a long position on the EURUSD pair if it falls below 1.07, only initiating the trade once this threshold is reached. If it doesn’t, I will refrain from entering. Given the strong current momentum, it’s possible the pair could move significantly lower, so I’ll begin with a small initial position. I scale into and out of my trades gradually, taking multiple smaller positions along the way.
Long
by Maddin278
1
EUR/USD Surges as U.S. Political Uncertainty Ahead of Key EventsDuring Monday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair is making headlines by hovering around the 1.0900 mark. With an ambitious target of 1.09780 in sight, this major currency pair is showing a notable surge at the expense of the U.S. Dollar (USD). This movement comes amid rising uncertainty as the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting later in the week. A Bearish Start for the U.S. Dollar As the new week begins, the U.S. Dollar is experiencing a bearish trend, reflected in the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Market participants are especially focused on the tight race shaping up between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, fueling a climate of uncertainty around the election outcomes. The anticipation surrounding the elections appears to have contributed to a flight from the dollar, as traders brace for potential volatility based on the implications of the election results. Technical Analysis: No Major Changes From a technical perspective, the current market behavior reflects continuity rather than change. Price levels remain largely similar to those observed in previous weeks, suggesting a moment of stabilization as traders await catalysts that could lead to clearer directional moves. Additionally, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that the positioning of traders has not changed significantly, continuing to reflect the trends seen last week. Preparing for Election Aftermath As the market gears up for the immediate aftermath of the elections, traders should be prepared for substantial fluctuations. The uncertainty regarding the election outcomes and the potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy are poised to create considerable movement across various asset classes. Depending on who emerges victorious, expectations for fiscal strategies, regulatory changes, and economic recovery plans may influence market sentiment and asset performance for weeks to come. Conclusion In conclusion, the EUR/USD's rise toward the 1.09780 target reflects broader market dynamics influenced by political uncertainty in the United States. As participants navigate this complex landscape, the interplay between election outcomes and central bank policies will be crucial to the future trajectory of the currency pair. Traders are advised to remain vigilant, as upcoming events could lead to significant volatility, reshaping market expectations and price actions in the process. Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Starts Tuesday with Optimism Amid Mixed Dollar StrengthThe EUR/USD pair opened Tuesday with a positive sentiment, trading at 1.08230 as of this writing. This follows a shaky start to the week for the US Dollar (USD), which initially showed strength but saw limited momentum as investors opted for caution, especially in the absence of major economic data or fundamental drivers early in the week. ECB’s Cautious Tone Amid Inflation Progress On Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos offered insights into the central bank’s view on inflation, noting that while there has been substantial progress in reducing inflation, it's premature to assume that the battle is over. His statements suggested that the ECB will maintain a flexible stance on monetary policy, leaving room for adjustments depending on economic developments. This cautious, yet open stance by the ECB may lend some support to the euro, as markets interpret the ECB's careful monitoring of inflation as a signal that interest rate hikes could still be in the realm of possibility. Focus on U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Data Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the JOLTS Job Openings data for September, which may influence USD sentiment. Markets are anticipating job openings to slightly decrease to 7.99 million, from 8.04 million in August. However, should the reading exceed expectations, particularly if it reaches 8.5 million or higher, it could reinforce USD strength as it would indicate continued labor market resilience—a key factor for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Conversely, a reading below 7.5 million might dampen USD appeal, as it would suggest cooling in the labor market, potentially leading the Fed to reconsider its tightening pace. Technical Overview: EUR/USD Positioned Near Demand Zone From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is showing some resilience around a demand zone, though it isn’t the strongest of support levels. The pair’s recent reaction in this area suggests some buying interest that could offer temporary support. Given this positioning, a long position might be worth considering if the upcoming JOLTS data provides a supportive backdrop by coming in below expectations, potentially weakening the USD. On the other hand, if the data surprises on the upside, EUR/USD might test lower levels, and the demand zone’s strength could be challenged. Conclusion In summary, the EUR/USD outlook today hinges significantly on the JOLTS report, with the euro finding slight support from the ECB's cautious optimism on inflation. A supportive labor report could provide USD strength, but a weaker-than-expected report may favor euro bulls, positioning EUR/USD for further upside near current demand levels. With this dynamic, traders might consider waiting for the JOLTS data before committing to positions, using it as a potential trigger for directionality in this volatile environment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD targeting 1.0500 after the 1W MA100 rejection.Late August (Aug 26, see chart below) saw us emphasizing the critical role of the Lower Highs trend-line, being the top of a multi-year Falling Wedge pattern that started at the peak of the 2008 Housing Crisis, and its important on the long-term trend, with a break-out being bullish while a rejection being bearish: The price was eventually rejected exactly at the top and at the same time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which did the July 2023 rejection. That rejection initiated a correction back to the Symmetrical Support Zone of 2015. As a result, we expect EURUSD to gradually descend towards that Zone and by mid 2025, hit 1.0500. Notice also that the 1W RSI also got very close to its 15-year Resistance Zone. This has triggered in the past more brutal sell-offs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EURUSD_106 2024.11.04 11:20:06 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for EURUSD_106 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.08451 SL: 1.09107 Entry Price: 1.09025 Analysis for EURUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to attempt a decline and test the support area near 1.0715. * The correction phase is ongoing, and any upward movement is unlikely to be strong without supportive news for the euro. * The US presidential election on November 5 may introduce volatility, but the US dollar is expected to remain strong. **Expected price movement:** Down (testing support near 1.0715) **Long-term (medium-term outlook):** * The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its medium-term decline. * The moving averages indicate a bullish trend, but this is subject to the ongoing correction and market volatility. * A potential growth target above 1.1185 is anticipated after the upward rebound. **Expected price movement:** Up (after the initial decline, with a potential growth target above 1.1185) Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as market conditions evolve. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided data, here is my analysis of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (November 4-8, 2024)** * Expected price movement: Down, followed by a potential upward rebound * Reasoning: The pair is currently in a correction phase after a month-long decline, and analysts expect an attempt to develop a decline, testing the support area near 1.0715. However, a potential upward rebound and growth towards the area below 1.1185 is also expected. * Technical analysis supports this view, as the pair has broken through the area between the signal lines downwards, suggesting pressure from buyers of the European currency. **Long-term (remainder of 2024)** * Expected price movement: Up, with moderate growth and minor corrections * Reasoning: Many analysts, including LongForecast, expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to appreciate throughout the remainder of 2024, reaching fresh yearly highs. While some forecasts, like those from WalletInvestor, suggest a slight decline, the overall sentiment is bullish. * The European Central Bank's potential interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions are influencing factors, but the market has already priced in the entire cycle of monetary policy easing in the U.S. **Note**: The US presidential election on November 5 is expected to introduce volatility, which may impact the pair's movement in the short term. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is in a correction phase after a month-long decline, and there are grounds for the euro to rise. * However, the correction is unlikely to be strong without continuous supportive news for the euro. * The key level to watch is 1.0845-1.0851; if the pair remains below this area, it could indicate a continuation of the decline. * Given the upcoming U.S. presidential election, significant volatility is expected in the market. **Expected short-term movement:** Neutral to slightly bearish (price may stay the same or go down) **Long-term (next few months to a year):** * Analysts expect the EUR/USD pair to potentially continue its medium-term decline. * The market has already priced in the expected monetary policy easing in the U.S., which may support the dollar's strength. * Forecasts suggest that the EUR/USD could trade at 1.07 by the end of this quarter and at 1.05 in 12 months. **Expected long-term movement:** Bearish (price expected to go down) Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movement. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by orbborisson
Positive Economic Data and ECB's Interest Rate OutlookThe strength of the Euro (EUR) is supported by positive economic data from the Eurozone, reducing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) making significant interest rate cuts in December. Eurostat reported that the region's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, prompting traders to adjust their expectations regarding interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting. Additionally, inflation pressure increased by 2% in October, further reinforcing the likelihood that the ECB will maintain interest rates. EUR/USD is fluctuating around the resistance level of 1.0896 during the European trading session on Monday. With support at 1.0778, the upward momentum of this currency pair is solidified, and it is likely to test the resistance level of 1.0896 again. Moreover, this upward trend may continue and break through that resistance, especially as the EMA 34 and 89 have reversed to an uptrend. What do you think about the outlook for this currency pair? Let me know!
by Alisa_Rokosz
eurusd wants to fill the Gap or not yet? Claro, aquí tienes la traducción al inglés: I see that the price has reached a significant weekly resistance and has left a bullish gap that should be filled. This leads me to think that there might be a manipulation of the Asian session highs before the price finds the momentum needed to move down and fill the gap. Overall, I find it more likely that these Asian highs won’t be manipulated. Additionally, I believe the EUR/USD could be looking for one last low before truly shifting its structure. However, the most notable confluence at the moment is the gap that still needs to be filled.
Short
by ag1904997
EURUSD 7 Dimension Sell Trade Idea Top-Down View (H4 Analysis): The H4 timeframe shows that the price has recently formed a Change of Character (CHoCH) and appears to be making a retracement. Despite this pullback, it hasn’t mitigated the higher-timeframe Points of Interest (POI), particularly the unmitigated Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). Observing H1, we see considerable volatility and uncertainty, possibly indicating attempts to shake out weak-handed traders before a deeper corrective move toward the H1 internal extreme POI for mitigation. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis 🟢Time Frame: H4 🟢Swing Structure: Bullish with CHoCH: The swing structure is bullish on the H4, with a recent CHoCH indicating a potential shift. An inducement has been observed, and price has just entered the discounted zone, which aligns with the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. POI and Liquidity Levels: The area of interest includes the 61% & 88% Fibonacci level, liquidity sweeps, and support at the demand zone. Waiting for price to reach this zone and observing its reaction will be critical. Pattern: 🟢 Chart Patterns: Double Bottom: Forming as a potential reversal pattern at the discounted zone. 🟢 Candle Patterns: Long Wick & Momentum Candles: Recent candles show long wicks and momentum on the downside, indicating that bears are still in control of the current session, albeit with limited momentum strength for long-term sustainability. Volume: Moderate volume suggests that while sellers are currently dominant, the bearish momentum may not hold for an extended period, reinforcing the expectation of a retracement. Momentum (RSI): 🟢 Range Shift: Momentum has shifted from bearish to sideways with multiple bullish divergences, suggesting a loss of bearish strength and a potential for reversal or retracement. Volatility (Bollinger Bands): 🟢 Middle Band Breach: The price has dropped below the middle band, indicating a slight bearish bias. Expansion Cool-Down: Following a period of expansion, price appears to be consolidating and "cooling down" before the next directional move. 🟢Strength (ROC and Consolidation): Consolidation Phase: ROC reflects consolidation, supporting the idea that the bearish momentum may pause or weaken, aligning with the expectation of a retracement or sideways movement. 🟢Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ Probability: 65% This setup has a moderate confidence level for a short-term sell entry, considering the confluence of factors on both the H4 and refined lower time frames. 🟢Trade Setup: Entry Details: Entry Time Frame: 15-Minute (15M) Entry TF Structure: Bearish (for counter-trend entry in a corrective move) Point of Interest (POI): Extreme Fair Value Gap (FVG) Trade Execution: 💡 Decision: Sell Limit 🚀 Entry: 1.8747 ✋ Stop Loss: 1.0888 🎯 Take Profit: 1.07927 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 6.94 RR 🕛 Expected Duration: 1 Day SUMMARY: This H4-based top-down analysis with entry refinement on the 15M timeframe provides a short-term sell opportunity within a bullish higher timeframe structure. Price action, volume, and momentum indicators suggest a potential bearish pullback toward the 15M POI, aligning with the 61% Fibonacci level and significant liquidity areas. The setup targets a short-term retracement with a high reward-to-risk ratio, with the expectation that price may retrace to mitigate lower timeframe liquidity levels before resuming the bullish trend.
Short
by Optimum369