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EURUSDEUR/USD Interest Rate Differential and Economic Data for May 2025: Directional Bias Interest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Cut rates by 25 basis points in March 2025, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. Dovish outlook: Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, with further easing likely if price pressures subside. Federal Reserve (Fed): Held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in May 2025, maintaining a cautious stance amid sticky inflation and trade uncertainty. Market expects delayed rate cuts until July 2025 or later. Differential: ~1.75–2.00% rate advantage for the USD, favoring dollar strength over the euro. Key May 2025 Economic Data Region Data/Event Impact on EUR/USD Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth (0.4% YoY) Mildly positive but uneven (Germany: 0.2%, France: 0.1%). US April CPI/Jobs Reports Sticky inflation (core CPI: 2.8%) supports Fed’s hold. Strong labor market (177k jobs added in April). Political EU Elections/Trade Tensions Risks from EU political turmoil (Germany/France) and U.S.-China tariffs weigh on EUR. Directional Bias Bearish EUR/USD: Rate Differential: The Fed’s hawkish hold vs. ECB easing widens the USD yield advantage, pressuring the euro. Growth Divergence: Eurozone growth (0.4% Q1) lags behind U.S. resilience, despite Germany’s exit from recession. Geopolitical Risks: EU political instability and U.S. tariff uncertainty amplify EUR downside. Conclusion: EUR/USD remains bearish in May 2025, driven by widening rate differentials, mixed Eurozone growth, and geopolitical headwinds.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
6
EURUSDEUR/USD Interest Rate Differential and Economic Data for May 2025: Directional Bias Interest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Cut rates by 25 basis points in March 2025, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. Dovish outlook: Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, with further easing likely if price pressures subside. Federal Reserve (Fed): Held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in May 2025, maintaining a cautious stance amid sticky inflation and trade uncertainty. Market expects delayed rate cuts until July 2025 or later. Differential: ~1.75–2.00% rate advantage for the USD, favoring dollar strength over the euro. Key May 2025 Economic Data Region Data/Event Impact on EUR/USD Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth (0.4% YoY) Mildly positive but uneven (Germany: 0.2%, France: 0.1%). US April CPI/Jobs Reports Sticky inflation (core CPI: 2.8%) supports Fed’s hold. Strong labor market (177k jobs added in April). Political EU Elections/Trade Tensions Risks from EU political turmoil (Germany/France) and U.S.-China tariffs weigh on EUR. Directional Bias Bearish EUR/USD: Rate Differential: The Fed’s hawkish hold vs. ECB easing widens the USD yield advantage, pressuring the euro. Growth Divergence: Eurozone growth (0.4% Q1) lags behind U.S. resilience, despite Germany’s exit from recession. Geopolitical Risks: EU political instability and U.S. tariff uncertainty amplify EUR downside. Conclusion: EUR/USD remains bearish in May 2025, driven by widening rate differentials, mixed Eurozone growth, and geopolitical headwinds.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
3
USD strength still underrated? Credit Agricole thinks soEUR/USD is struggling to hold above 1.1250 after a modest bounce from recent lows near 1.1220. On the 4-hour chart, price remains capped below the 9-period SMA, with RSI hovering near neutral at 40 and volume showing persistent selling pressure. The technical setup points to a fragile recovery that has yet to gain conviction. This comes as Credit Agricole maintains an above-consensus bullish view on the US dollar, projecting a recovery through H2 2025 and into 2026. While structural risks—such as ongoing US-China trade tensions—continue to draw market attention, the bank sees these concerns as overstated. President Trump’s latest comments could reinforce that view, suggesting an 80% tariff on Chinese goods could be a viable alternative to the 145% already in place. The upcoming trade talks in Switzerland will be key to near-term direction, but for now, the bias for USD strength appears intact—keeping downside pressure on EUR/USD.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Looking More and More Like a Top May be In PlaceEUR/USD lost a really big level this week when bears pushed through the 1.1275 Fibonacci level. This is the 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move, and that price was the swing high in 2023. More importantly for the past three weeks that level was support for EUR/USD, both before and after the failed run at the 1.1500 handle. This move has been a big part of the sell-off in the US Dollar and as we've seen more and more bottoming potential for the Greenback on the basis of three consecutive weekly gains, the opposite has been the case for EUR/USD. For this week, we had a descending triangle build around the FOMC rate decision, with lower-highs as resistance and horizontal support at the 1.1275 level. That formation filled in cleanly on Thursday with a breakdown, and price pushed directly down to the 1.1200 handle, which is a big level in its own right. That was the high on multiple occasions last year and to date, it hasn't shown much for support, until this week, at least. That price led into a bounce into the close of the week but the bearish sequencing remains in-play for next week and the door remains open for a test down towards 1.1100 or perhaps even 1.1000. Notably, the 1.0943 level is related to the same Fibonacci sequence that produced 1.1275 and 1.0943 was resistance turned support just a month ago. - js
by FOREXcom
1
I had some bad luck todayI had some bad luck today. This setup was originally meant for me, but things didn’t go as planned. A crypto exchange claimed it supports USD-based trading, and since working with brokers like Lazzam is a bit confusing and complicated for me, I got excited and deposited my $11 there. But then I realized the minimum position size was $1,250 USDT — way too much. I totally fell for it. So yeah, I couldn't take the trade, but now this setup is for you. Hope you enjoy it! Good night — although it might not be night where you are. But I'm in Iran, and well, I guess that's my second bad luck of the day. Wish I were in the U.S. instead!
Short
by soroushshahabi639
1
My thoughts on EUR/USDSince January 31st, EUR/USD had been in a bullish trend--a bullish channel in the 4H and 1D. I knew we were about to break out of this bullish trend. I had been anticipating a very strong reversal for a while, given we recently retested the top of another stronger Trendline. A much more reliable channel. the channel I speak of is the 3M, 1M and 1W timeframe channels, they are bearish. We once again hit the resistance of this monthly channel, while, at the same time being in a bullish trend in the 4H and 1D timeframes. So obviously I presumed the 4H bullish trend would end and reverse-which it has and did. This monthly bearish channel has been active for 14-17 years and has perfectly retested the support and resistances numerous times--making it a valid A+ setup in my book. To further this, on the 4H-1D timeframes, while we were still inside this 4H bullish channel, we saw a perfect Head and Shoulders pattern and quickly got our confirmation when it crossed the neckline. All of this indicates we will see strong selling pressure very soon. So, where are we headed exactly? Well we know that we have FVGs and strong Supports. key areas for TPs are 1.09, 1.06, and on the monthly as low as 0.82. If you guys have any questions feel free to ask. And share your thoughts and opinions on EUR/USD--thanks :) Example Short Orders SL 1.137 Limit order 1.255 TP1 1.09 TP2 1.06 TP3 1.02 TP4 0.82 (Maybe i am wrong, but if I am it will be the first time in 17 years for EUR/USD.. I like the odds) OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by SethGoforth
4
EUR/USD — Smart Money Concept (SMC) AnalysisStrategy Framework: SMC (CHOCH, POI, Supply/Demand Zones) --- Key Concepts on Chart CHOCH (Change of Character) Confirmed bullish CHOCH from higher timeframe demand zone (orange). Signals intent of bullish reversal. ✅ Strong Demand Zone (Yellow Box) H4 demand zone holds — price swept liquidity below recent swing low and respected demand. ✅ Target Supply Zones (Marked in Yellow) 1st target: 1.1450 – 1.1500 2nd target: 1.1550 (High timeframe supply) ✅ Elliott Wave Context Wave (4) completion + bullish impulse toward Wave (5) continuation possible — aligning with SMC bias. Entry Idea: > Long after confirmed CHOCH & mitigation of minor demand zone (~1.1240 – 1.1260) Target 1: > 1.1420–1.1450 Supply Zone Target 2: > 1.1500–1.1550 Higher Supply Zone Invalidation (Stop Loss): > Below major demand (
Long
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD Will Explode! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1278 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1344 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.1236 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Has the EUR/USD Uptrend Ended?After trending upward since early 2025 on a weaker dollar, EUR/USD saw a notable pullback this week. For the first time, we can technically say that the uptrend has ended. But what are the reasons? The price dropped below the 1.12640 level, which represents the most recent higher low recorded by the market, and closed the day below it, forming a new low. This signal on the daily timeframe is negative and indicates a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The 1.14931 level represents potential selling pressure, from which the price may decline after testing it, targeting the 1.12860 level. As for the 1.15734 level, it is considered an important resistance line that keeps the bearish scenario valid. However, if the price rises and records a daily close above it, this would indicate a return to the bullish trend and the failure of the bearish scenario.
by CFI
EUR/USD: Bearish Structure Intact — Lower Lows Ahead? (READ)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.136. If the price manages to stay below the 1.1414 level, we can expect further downside from this pair. The possible bearish targets are 1.128, 1.11480, and 1.10 respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
15
The Day Ahead Friday May 9 Data: China April trade balance, Q1 BoP current account balance, Japan March labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Italy March industrial production, Canada April jobs report, Norway April CPI Central banks: Fed's Williams, Waller, Kugler, Goolsbee and Barr speak, ECB's Simkus and Rehn speak, BoE's Bailey and Pill speak Earnings: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Recruit Holdings, Commerzbank, Cellnex This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation