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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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What to do the week America votes?The dollar and the Euro depending on the future president of the USA. The most important week, both for the United States and the rest of the world, and also for the currency markets. The choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is key for the future of the United States, as well as for the development of economies around the world. On November 5, 2024, Tuesday is the election in the USA. The election of Kamala will definitely not affect the dollar well, while the election of Trump would have a positive effect. But there is one very big BUT. In both elections, unrest is very likely to follow, which would adversely affect the United States. Thus, the "elections 2024" drama will not end with the final decision of the voters. Betting on Gold is much safer in these absolutely uncertain times. Even more so with the news that more and more millionaires are trying to leave the United States. After the employment data, this week, fundamentals will generally be left for later trading when the passions surrounding the election die down. Our advice is to choose gold instead of the dollar or euro. You can't go wrong with gold for medium to long term trading. This week, trading will start neutral in anticipation of the news surrounding the elections, but it is possible that individual players will be quite aggressive in the markets. The probability of very large trade turnovers is very high. In addition to the US election, on Tuesday you can watch the ECB's President Lagarde speech, as well as data on the ISM Services PMI (Oct). On Thursday after the election, pay attention to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, where a 25 basis point cut is expected. If everything around the election goes smoothly (although it is unlikely), then the expected lowering of interest rates in the United States will be the main driving event for the week.
by World-Signals
Analysis EUR/USDLast week, I mentioned that it would be bullish, and I hope you took advantage of the trading opportunity. On Friday, there was manipulation by the banks, which pushed the price downward. What I see is strong bearish momentum at the market close. On the lower time frames (4h/1h), we have a BOS (Break of Structure) as confirmation that there could be a continuation of the bullish momentum from last week. I will wait for Monday to develop to determine how and in what way to trade. Be patient and let’s see what the price will show us.
by andricstrahinja95
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 10/02/2024Good afternoon, Today, my focus will be on identifying long entries for a long position, as we appear to have reached a selling climax. On the 15-minute time frame, a robust demand zone is evident between 1.0300 and 1.0400. The market has made a significant move towards 1.0300, leaving indications of early buying activity from "Market Makers." A notable reversal occurred on October 1st, followed by the formation of a bullish wedge (which is typically a bearish pattern) that pushed the market below the previous low. Currently, we are beginning to form a triangle on the 15-minute chart, which serves as a critical signal for a potential market reversal, particularly since it has not managed to fill the liquidity above it. This downward movement seems designed to eliminate the remaining sellers and early buyers. Additionally, my strategy, "High Clear," has materialized, suggesting that a liquidity sweep of the recent low was anticipated. I am now monitoring the fourth leg of the triangle as it approaches the lower congestion line, preparing for a potential breakout with the fifth leg. It is important to note that if a sixth leg forms, it would indicate a continuation of the market trend. I suspect that the market is attempting to prompt traders to shift to short positions, setting the stage for one final significant rally towards 1.1300. I anticipate that the market could reach this level in the coming weeks, unless we observe the formation of a six-legged triangle. The Pip Assassin FX:EURUSD TVC:DXY XETR:DAX
Long
by ThePipAssassin
2
EUR Strong until Q1 next yearI believe we have more reason to go Strong EUR! Price has been switching to Strong EUR since 10/03/2023. We are currently forming a triangle on the daily meaning we are going to have a weekly and monthly move ahead with a lot of power! ** This is my view, what are some of yours?** For new traders: Never assume a country will be bankrupt off a single currency exchange ... Us can get weaker and still be force. The nation carries the currency not the other way!
Long
by ThePipAssassin
Strong EUR? - A EUR/USD AnalysisEUR/USD has displayed bullish characteristics over the last couple of weeks. - We have reach a high in the market @ 1.095. - This high was made after a bullish A,B,C,D pattern aka (Trend). - In bullish markets, prices tend to find support at the previous high, the previous high in this market (To me) is @ 1.085. - We currently have made a bullish pin bar rejection candle on 3/19/2024. - Currently we have untapped orders at 1.098, this is where I believe prices want to go in the next month. - Breaking the 1.098 level, could lead to a bigger move up toward 1.11. ** as always, trade smart, trade responsible, and manage the risk as much as the reward **
Long
by ThePipAssassin
2
EUR/USD Analysis 08/09/2024 1HEUR/USD in a nice consolidation on the 1H and 15min. Analysis 15min: This period is in a nice strong bullish channel, I love the price action, 6 nice tags showing signs of break out, key thing to watch is the next couple of hours. How will we react around the trendlines? We will not get to many more tags of this channel. Bullish flags are signs of a bearish trend reversal and or continuation of the current trend, at least to me.. Analysis 1H: This period is basically the same, but the price action is vastly different. A hold below 1.0920 would mean a break in market structure and that could lead to a retest of the range support on the 1H at 1.0892. However, I exact things to move up for a retest, keep in mind the market is bullish. A break above the channel. Hold. Retest. We are gone. Personal bias: Short, short term.
Short
by ThePipAssassin
1
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 09/18/2024My life's work as a trader is not be like the 99%, I want to be like the 1%. The market is showing stability, with a 4-hour period range highlighted by the Red Range Lines. This is a positive indication, as the recent drop did not occur on high volume by the Market Makers. Market Makers intervened at 1.11376 (1.11400) before the news hinted at a price decrease. Despite this, they refrained from further pushing the price down. The market swiftly hit the range low of the 4H on low volume. Retail investors flooded the markets with sell orders, resulting in an influx of EUROs to the Market Makers, who now possess a substantial supply of EUROs. I expect 1.10729 (1.107) to act as a support/demand area for the EUROS where "Market Makers" are looking to buy at wholesale value. Following a High, Low, HH pattern, buyers are sought at the HL level with a clear reason behind it. The market makers anticipated a surge in the EURO due to news, leading them to sell aggressively. Considering the unfavorable news for the dollar on 9/18/2024, the dollar's strength is expected to be limited. This can be seen as the market makers strategically shaking the Olive tree!
Long
by ThePipAssassin
1
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 9/22/2024Good day, Today, we're diving into EUR/US once again, and let me tell you, last week's strategy hit the nail on the head. This week, the 4-hour chart is indicating a potential "Selling Climax." A glance at the daily reveals several bearish pin bars. The 4-hour has tightened from a broad range into a narrow internal range, which I refer to as "Market Submission." Prices have stalled, and traders are showing signs of fatigue. The market has consistently failed to break above 1.11679 (1.117), creating a solid evening star pattern. The 1H timeframe is indicating a potential reversal as it navigates through multiple strong lows within a fixed range. While selling pressure is apparent, it hasn't yet managed to drive prices down to the internal low of 1.11174 (1.1120). I'm anticipating that this period will break that low following a retest of 1.11788 (1.118), as we find ourselves in the territory of a "Doji," or what I refer to as "Indecision Bars." Appreciate your efforts, stay sharp in your trades, and show kindness to all on their trading path! Best, The Pip Assassin! OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY
Short
by ThePipAssassin
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 9/24/2024Good evening, Today served as a solid confirmation that we might be experiencing a buying climax. Several indicators have pointed to this: 1. We are observing a bearish pin-bar that is accompanied by significant trading volume. 2. Additionally, there is an evening star pattern present, featuring a prominent long-legged doji at its center. 3. Two weeks ago, we broke through a low, and now retail sentiment is beginning to shift towards long positions. It's common for retail traders, myself included in the past, to chase the highs and make purchases at elevated levels. I believe the first key level market makers are going to push for is 1.088. Best, The Pip Assassin! TVC:DXY XETR:DAX
Short
by ThePipAssassin
3
EURUSD: Fed`s decision weekThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge in the US, the PCE Price Index, was standing at 0,2% in September, bringing the index to 2,1% on a yearly basis. Figures were in line with market expectations. The Personal Income was higher by 0,3% in September while Personal Spending was increased by 0,5% a bit higher from market estimate of 0,4%. The Non-farm payrolls again surprised markets with data for October reaching only 12K. This was a significant drop from 223K posted for the previous month and significantly lower from 180K forecasted by market. Unemployment rate in October was unchanged at 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings were higher by 0,4% in October, leading to an yearly increase of 4%. As for other macro data published for the US, the GDP Growth rate in Q3 showed an acceleration of the US economy of 2.8% for the quarter, which was a bit lower from market forecast of 3%. The US House Price Index was higher by 0,3% in August, bringing the total increase of housing prices to 4,2% on a yearly basis. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October reached the level of 46,5, which was a bit lower from market consensus of 47,6. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in November was -18,3 which was a bit better from consensus of -20,5. Unemployment rate in Germany in October was higher by 0,1%, ending the month at 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate flash for Q3 was better than expected at the level of 0,2% for the quarter, while market expectations were standing at -0,1%. At the same time, GDP Growth rate on a yearly basis is still standing at the negative territory of -0,2%. The GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone in Q3 was at the level of 0,4%, and 0,9% on a yearly basis. Inflation rate in Germany, preliminary for October, was standing at 2% for the year, and 0,4% for the month, which was a bit higher from market expectations of 1,8% and 0,2%. At the same time, the inflation rate in the Euro Zone for the same period was standing at 2,0% for the year and 0,3% for the month. Core inflation remained elevated at the level of 2,7% y/y. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone remained flat in September at the level of 6,3%. The currency pair was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, considering mixed macro data which was posted during the week. First half of the week, eurusd spent on a move from 1,08 support line and moved toward the highest weekly level at 1,09, a short term resistance line. Still, Friday's NFP was a huge surprise for markets, when the eurusd reverted back, ending the week at the level of 1,0834. The RSI reached its maximum weekly level at 45, indicating that the market is still not ready to cross the 50 line and start its move toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continues with its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between lines, but also an indication that the cross might occur within a few weeks. The week ahead has the potential to be one of the most stressful trading weeks of the year. First, US Presidential elections are due on November 5th, which would certainly make markets react in line with an election outcome. Two days later, on November 7th, the Fed will decide on the further course of interest rates. Fed moves always imply higher market reactions, which implies that the week ahead might be one with higher market moves to one or both sides. Current charts are clearly showing that the market is uncertain which side to trade. On one side, there is some probability that the level of the 1,08 support line could be tested for one more time. There is also an indication for the resistance line at 1,10. Still, this level could be reached within a week or two, not necessarily in the week ahead. For the following week the much probable level could be 1,09, eventually 1,095. However, as previously noted, any surprises during the week, might trigger high volatility, so trading precaution is highly recommended. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, HCOB Services PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, Balance of Trade for Germany in September, Industrial Production in Germany for September, USD: ISM Services PMI for October, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference after the FOMC meeting, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
by XBTFX
EUR/USD Analysis: Potential Bearish Continuation SetupIn this analysis, we’re looking at a potential bearish setup for the EUR/USD on the 15-minute timeframe. Here’s a closer look at the key elements of the chart and the rationale behind this bearish outlook. 1. Trendline Break Signals Bearish Shift The chart reveals an upward trendline that had been supporting price action over recent sessions. However, this trendline was decisively broken to the downside, suggesting that the previous bullish momentum may be fading. This trendline break is often an early sign of a shift in sentiment, indicating that sellers could be gaining control. 2. Identifying Supply Zones for a Potential Reversal Two supply zones have been identified on the chart, where we expect potential selling pressure if the price retraces to these levels. These zones represent areas where sellers could step in and push the price lower if the retracement brings the pair back to these resistance areas. Watching price action as it approaches these zones will be crucial. 3. Waiting for Bearish Confirmation Patterns To strengthen this bearish setup, we’re looking for specific candlestick patterns within the supply zones, namely an Evening Star or a Bearish Engulfing pattern. Both patterns indicate strong selling momentum and would act as confirmation that sellers are indeed stepping in. A sharp move downward from one of these patterns would provide an ideal entry signal for a short trade. 4. Projected Bearish Continuation If bearish patterns form within the highlighted supply zones, there’s a good probability of a continuation to the downside. The projected path, indicated by the downward arrow on the chart, suggests a move toward the lower support zone, near the 1.07915 level. This level serves as a key area of interest where price could find temporary support, making it a logical target for short positions. 5. Key Levels to Watch Currently, the price is hovering around the 1.08336 mark. If bearish patterns materialize and sellers continue to dominate, we could see a move towards the 1.07915 level. However, should price break above the supply zones without showing bearish patterns, it would invalidate this setup, and we’d reassess the outlook. Conclusion In summary, this analysis outlines a bearish scenario for EUR/USD based on a trendline break, potential supply zones, and confirmation through bearish candlestick patterns. Waiting for confirmation within these supply zones is essential to avoid premature entries. If these signals align, the 1.07915 area presents an attractive target for a potential downside move.
Short
by Wasbeer_121
EUR/USDFull Analysis of the EUR/USD Pair 1. Ascending Price Channel on the Daily Time Frame An ascending price channel is visible on the daily time frame, indicating a strong positive trend in the market. This pattern reflects upward momentum and enhances the likelihood of the trend continuing. 📈 2. Strong Demand Areas Strong demand areas have been identified on the chart, representing potential buying zones. If the price bounces from these areas, we may witness significant buying pressure that supports the upward movement. 💪 3. Appearance of a Harmonic Pattern The presence of a harmonic pattern suggests good opportunities for upward movement, reinforcing confidence in the bullish trend. 🌟 4. Overbought Conditions in RSI and MACD The overbought conditions in the RSI and MACD indicate a potential reversal. If the RSI is close to the 30 level (oversold) and the MACD shows divergence, this may be a strong signal to look for buying opportunities. 📊 Summary Based on the analysis mentioned, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities at the specified support levels. ✨ Be sure to set clear stop-loss points and manage risk carefully to protect your capital. 🚀💰
Long
by ShakerTrading
EURUSD 3/11/24This week, our bias on the Euro has shifted from short to long. This change is based on observing a shift in the higher time frame structure, as institutions appear to be showing interest in buying. Whether this move will be short-term or long-term remains to be seen. We’ll watch the price action in the first sessions of the week to get a clearer idea. Please note, this analysis follows the same principles and bias approach as always. Currently, there are no unmitigated demand areas on the 4-hour chart, and only a short-term supply area has formed. The area of demand we’ve highlighted is present only on the 1-hour chart, making it more of a smaller time frame reference than a higher one. We’ve marked key liquidity levels, which will serve as our reference points for potential upward movement this week. If the price interacts with the 1-hour demand area, we’ll aim for the high at the top of the current range. While I’m ultimately looking for a longer-term upward move, a pullback beforehand is possible. Stick to your plan and manage your risk.
by rosshayes
Charts for next week.US Dollar retreated after posting solid gains in recent weeks. Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 12,000 in October, falling short of market expectations. Markets remain almost fully pricing in a 25 bps cut by the Fed next week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, rebounded intraday despite the weak jobs data as annual wage inflation rose to 4%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. In the meantime, markets remain almost fully expecting a 25 basis-point-cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. On the data front, ISM PMIs also came in mixed from September. The DXY continues to trade sideways near 104.00. Despite persistent inflation, weak job growth data raises expectations of a less hawkish Fed stance, which might start to weaken the USD.
by EZIO-FX