EURUSD NEW OUTLOOKEURUSD NEW H4 OUTLOOK
according to H4 analysis eurousd market break the resistance zone and RESISTANCE BECOME SUPPORT RBS now market at support level this is the best chance to go buy from here
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
USDEUR trade ideas
EURUSD 10/3/25As we move through the year 2025, we remain bullish on the euro against the US dollar. We're looking for price to pull back to an area of relatively high liquidity.
Currently, we have taken a short-term area, and there is potential for a lower expansion. However, we are now expanding higher from the short-term low that was taken out. We have two major highs marked as targets, and these same points could also serve as areas where price may move lower.
If we reverse at these all-time monthly highs, this should not be viewed as a bearish shift—rather, it’s an opportunity to follow price higher. The two lows we have marked, which have not yet been tapped, are high-volume lows. Keeping in mind that a reaction from these areas is more ideal forms the main basis of our outlook for the week.
Remember, don’t chase the market—let it come to you. If you have a trading plan, stick to it. If you don’t, I strongly encourage you to collect data, use a proven data-driven edge, and trade based on the insights you’ve gathered.
Always trade your plan, manage your risk, and let Orion lead your way.
Euro can rebound up from support line to 1.1000 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at this chart, we can see that a few days ago, the price entered a range, where it immediately broke through the 1.0425 support level, which aligned with the buyer zone, and then moved to the upper part of the range. After trading near this area for some time, the price dropped back to the buyer zone, reaching the support line before starting to rise again. Soon, the Euro broke the 1.0425 level once more and later exited the range, continuing its upward movement. Not long after, the price climbed to the 1.0805 support level, which coincided with a support area. It traded around this level for a while before breaking through it as well. Following that, the Euro reached the resistance line, reversed, and corrected back to the support area, where it found support again. Recently, it rebounded and started moving upward. Given this, I expect a further rebound from the support line and a breakout above the resistance line. Based on this scenario, my TP is set at 1.1000 points Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can drop to $1.0700, breaking support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to trades inside a broadening wedge, where it at once bounced up from support level to resistance line.
Then Euro some time traded in a range, and then dropped to support line of wedge, breaking $1.0420 level.
After this, Euro turned around and made strong upward movement to resistance line of a broadening wedge.
Also, it broke $1.0420 level and soon exited from broadening wedge and broke $1.0770 level too.
Next, Euro continued to move up inside rising channel, where it rose from support level to resistance line.
Possibly, price can rise a little in a channel and then bounce down to $1.0700, breaking support level and exit from channel.
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EURUSD: Reaction Post-NFP Data ReleaseEURUSD Reaction Post-NFP Data Release
On Friday, the United States reported its Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The figures were slightly lower than expectations, coming in at 151K compared to the forecast of 160K. However, they were significantly higher than the previous month's figure of 125K. Additionally, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1% from 4.0%, which hindered the USD's strength. Nevertheless, the overall performance of the U.S. data was not unfavorable.
Given that EUR/USD had already paused in our potential reversal zone, the likelihood is that it has reached its peak at 1.0890. The next anticipated movement should be a bearish correction, with targets at 1.0765, 1.0685, and possibly further down to 1.0630.
You may find more details in the chart!
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EURUSD H4 ShortRemember, successful trading relies on proper risk management and a disciplined approach. Use stop-losses to safeguard your assets and carefully plan each trade. Analysis is the key to making informed decisions. Stay updated and continue refining your strategies!
PREPARING FOR SHORT ON EUR/USDEUR/USD 1H - We want to see the exact same thing take place here on this pair. You will notice that all three pairs I have sent analysis out for correlate perfectly.
We want to see strength in the USD ultimately this week which is why we want to see this pair as well as GU trade lower, as this would tell us that the EUR and GBP are weak against the USD.
As for the USD/CHF we want to see the market trade higher again suggesting strength in the Dollar. Once we have this break of structure to the downside, we will wait for price to pullback into the Zone I have marked out.
Once price trades in, its then a case of waiting for price to break structure again fractally to the downside to confirm the end of the correction and the start of the next impulse lower. Alerts have been set!
Lingrid | EURUSD pullback After an IMPULSIVE SurgeFX:EURUSD market reached the November high area and is currently testing last week's high as well. On the weekly timeframe, the price has formed a large bullish candle, indicating an impulse leg. Typically, after such a move, prices tend to make a sharp drop. Given the presence of both the weekly and November highs above, I think the market may struggle to move higher. I expect a more oscillating phase below the resistance. On the 4H timeframe, the price has formed a higher high; however, there is a bearish divergence that supports the idea of a corrective move in the market. I expect a short-term pullback from the resistance zone. My goal is support zone around 1.07000
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Selling in EurosIf the support trend line is broken,
Confirmation for sell is issued.
Pay attention to the chart.
EURUSD road map !!!The Euro will increase two cents and reach to the top of the wedge in the coming weeks.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
EUR_USD - Germany's new infrastructure and defense spending planThe approval and implementation of Germany's new infrastructure and defense spending plan involve several key steps, both political and administrative. Here’s an outline of the necessary steps:
1. Drafting and Proposal of the Plan
The German government (typically led by the Chancellor and the Finance Ministry) drafts the detailed proposal, including budget allocations and funding mechanisms.
Consultation with economic experts, industry representatives, and relevant ministries to refine the plan.
2. Parliamentary Debate and Approval
Bundestag (Federal Parliament): The plan must be presented and debated in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament.
Constitutional Amendment: Since the plan involves adjusting Germany’s “debt brake” (Schuldenbremse), a constitutional amendment may be required. This needs a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat.
Bundesrat (Federal Council): The upper house of parliament, representing the states (Länder), must also approve any constitutional changes or financial arrangements impacting state budgets.
3. Negotiations with Political Parties
Coalition and Opposition Talks: Since the ruling coalition may not have the required two-thirds majority, negotiations with opposition parties (especially the CDU/CSU) will be necessary.
State-Level Discussions: Some aspects of infrastructure projects require coordination with state governments.
4. Legal and Financial Structuring
Establishing a legal framework for the €500 billion infrastructure fund.
Determining mechanisms for funding, such as issuing government bonds or redirecting budget surpluses.
Ensuring compliance with EU fiscal rules and regulations.
5. Market and Stakeholder Reactions
Gathering input from investors, financial institutions, and international economic organizations.
Addressing concerns about inflation, debt levels, and the potential impact on Germany’s credit rating.
6. Implementation Phase
Creation of oversight committees to monitor spending and project execution.
Allocation of funds to specific projects (transport, digital infrastructure, energy, defense).
Regular audits and progress reports to ensure transparency and accountability.
7. Adjustments and Future Legislative Revisions
Reviewing the economic impact of the plan and making adjustments if necessary.
Possible revisions based on political changes or unforeseen economic conditions.
EURUSD: testing the 1,08 resistanceThe Non-farm payroll figures were the ones that the market closely watched, posted on Friday. The NFP for February was 151K in February. The figure was slightly below the market estimate of 160K. The unemployment rate in February was 4,1%, by 1 pp higher from the previous month. The average hourly earnings increased by 0,3% for the month and 4% on a yearly basis. As for other data macro posted for the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for February was standing at 50,3, a bit below market consensus of 50,5. The US ISM Services PMI in February was standing at 53,5 which was a bit higher from forecasted 52,6.
The ECB held a meeting during the previous week, and decided to further decrease its facility rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2,5%. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in February, preliminary for the month was 0,5%, leading to 2,4% on a yearly basis. At the same time, core inflation was 2,6% y/y. All figures were in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in January was without change from the previous month, at 6,2%. The market forecast was expecting a bit higher figure, of 6,3%. The HCOB Composite PMI final in February for Germany was standing at 50,4, below market consensus of 51. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was 50,2 in February and was in line with market estimates. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in January was standing higher by 0,8% for the month and 1,8% for the year. Both figures were a bit higher from market expectations. The third estimate of EuroZone GDP growth for the Q4 was 0,2% for the quarter, bringing the GDP growth on a yearly basis to the level of 1,2%. This was better from the market estimate of 0,9%.
One of the beneficiaries of the uncertainty over new US Administration moves are EU markets. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps, for one more time, while the NFP figures in the US showed a bit of slowdown. This was more than enough for markets to favor EUR currency during the previous week, trading with the uptrend during the whole week. The currency pair started the previous week around the level of 1,038, and was strongly pushed to the upside, and highest weekly level at 1,088. This was a strong weekly move, while eurusd ended the week at 1,083. The strong resistance level at 1,08 was last time tested in November 2024. The RSI currently stands at a strongly overbought market side. The MA50 started its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between two lines, so the cross will be postponed for the future period.
After a strong move to the upside, where the overbought market side was clearly reached, some short reversals are probable in the coming period. For the week ahead, it could be expected that the market will continue testing the 1,08 resistance line for the potential toward the downside. On the opposite side, there is some small probability for the move toward the 1,09, the next resistance level, but some stronger moves should not be expected, based on current charts.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Balance of Trade for Germany in January, Industrial Production in January for Germany, Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in January, Inflation rate in February for Germany,
USD: JOTL`s Job Openings in January, Inflation Rate in February, Producers Price Index in February, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, USDCHF, EURAUD, US30
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
After multiple attempts to violate a key daily horizontal resistance,
EURUSD was rejected.
It looks like the underlined blue area will keep being a strong supply area.
Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from that.
2️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭
The price reached a significant daily demand cluster on Friday.
That zone concentrates huge buying volumes.
I think that the pair is going to start a correctional movement soon.
3️⃣ #EURAUD weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇦🇺
The market did not manage to break a key daily horizontal resistance level.
We see a strong bearish pressure after the market opening today.
Chances are high that the market will continue falling.
4️⃣ #US30 1 hour time frame 🇬🇧🇨🇦
I see a nice gap down opening.
With a high probability, it is going to be filled soon.
Expect an intraday bullish movement.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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Fatigue in EUR/USD: Time to Sell the Rallies?Last week, EUR/USD saw an explosive rise, breaking above my 1.06 target and even surpassing the next resistance at 1.08.
However, signs of fatigue are emerging, and there appears to be significant selling liquidity around the 1.09 level.
With the DXY currently in a support zone and potentially set for an upward reversal, I expect EUR/USD to decline and correct its 500-pip rally.
A break back below 1.08 would confirm this scenario, potentially leading to a test of the 1.06 zone.
Selling rallies near 1.09 could offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
EURUSD - Market StructureEURUSD - Market Structure , i still keep my short opinion, this is the second short trade and the last, keep in mind that price have space in the all supply area to move so is up to you where you put SL
downtendGiven the price behavior at the resistance level and the resistance trend line, it is expected that the trend will change and we will see the start of a correction.
Bearish ICT & SMC Trading Idea – EUR/USD Market Context (Bearish Smart Money Perspective)
1️⃣ Liquidity Grab & Inducement (IDM 4HR)
The market has engineered liquidity above previous highs to attract retail buyers.
Price tapped into the IDM 4HR inducement zone, where smart money may distribute orders before reversing.
2️⃣ Break of Structure (BOS 4HR/W)
A previous BOS (Break of Structure) on the 4HR/Weekly timeframe indicates bearish intent.
This confirms that the market has shifted away from a bullish trend.
3️⃣ Order Flow – Smart Money Trap
This bullish move into the IDM 4HR zone was likely a "fake pump" (liquidity grab) before a bearish reversal.
Smart money might now execute sell-side liquidity grabs, pushing price lower.
🔹 Bearish Trading Plan (Short Setup)
🔸 Entry Strategy – Smart Money Rejection
📌 Step 1: Confirm IDM 4HR Rejection
Look for a strong bearish engulfing candle on 1HR or 4HR after price enters the IDM zone.
Ensure liquidity has been grabbed above recent highs before entering short.
📌 Step 2: Market Structure Shift (MSS) on LTF
Drop to M15 or M5 and wait for a market structure shift (MSS), indicating bearish pressure.
Identify Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) or Order Blocks (OBs) in the IDM rejection zone.
📌 Step 3: Entry Confirmation & Execution
Enter on the retest of a bearish OB or FVG inside the IDM 4HR zone.
Ensure that price forms a Lower High (LH) after rejection.
🔹 Stop Loss & Take Profit Targets
✅ SL (Stop Loss): Above the IDM 4HR high to avoid stop hunts.
✅ TP1: BOS 4HR/W level (Liquidity Pool) – This is the first downside target.
✅ TP2: 1.05277 key support level – Next bearish liquidity zone.
✅ TP3 (Extended): If momentum continues, expect price to sweep deeper into a Discount Price Range for further sell-side delivery.
📉 Smart Money Execution – Key Bearish Confluences
🔸 Liquidity must be taken first! (No liquidity grab = No trade)
🔸 SMT Divergence with DXY – If DXY is strong, bearish confirmation strengthens.
🔸 Ensure entry from Premium Pricing Zone (discount zones are for buying).
🔸 Risk-Reward must be 1:3 minimum – no forced entries.
📌 Bearish Bias Confirmation – What to Watch For?
✅ Rejection from IDM 4HR with strong bearish candles.
✅ M15/M5 structure shift (MSS) confirming downside momentum.
✅ Volume spike on the sell-side + SMT divergence.
✅ Failure to reclaim IDM 4HR zone = Strong Bearish Bias!
🔥 High-Probability Bearish Setup – Execution Plan
1️⃣ Wait for a false breakout above IDM 4HR liquidity.
2️⃣ Identify a bearish engulfing rejection on the 4HR/1HR timeframe.
3️⃣ Enter short on retest of OB/FVG after MSS confirmation on M15/M5.
4️⃣ Target BOS liquidity zones for profit-taking.
EUR/USD Trend Today - Further Upward?🔔🔔🔔 EUR/USD news:
👉The EUR/USD pair began the week on a positive trajectory, trading around 1.0860 during Monday’s Asian session. This upward movement is primarily driven by growing concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy. On Sunday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that increasing uncertainty among businesses could weaken demand in the US economy, though she does not see this as a reason to adjust interest rates.
👉On Friday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000 in February, missing the forecasted 160,000. Additionally, January’s job growth was revised down to 125,000 from the initially reported 143,000. The weaker-than-expected labor market data may put pressure on the US Dollar (USD), offering support to the EUR/USD pair.
Personal opinion:
👉In the long term, the momentum for EUR/USD is still bullish. However, technically in most time frames, RSI signals that EUR/USD is entering the overbought zone and showing signs of divergence. This signals a short-term correction
Resistance zone: 1.0885 1.0936
Support zone: 1.0770 1.0720
Analysis:
👉Based on important resistance - support levels combined with standard pivot points to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy EUR/USD 1.0770 - 1.0760
❌SL: 1.0730 | ✅TP: 1.0830 – 1.0880 – 1.0930
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Russia-Ukraine-Europe: Forex Impact
Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo. Today I want to share with you a reflection on the current geopolitical situation, in particular on the war in Ukraine and its global implications. The latest developments show us an increasingly complex panorama: America seems to have taken an ambiguous position, with signals that could be interpreted as a rapprochement with Putin. This has led to an intensification of the conflict between Russia and Europe, with consequences that could redefine the global balance.
The current situation and its implications
The war in Ukraine, which has been going on for years now, has had a devastating impact not only on the military front, but also on the economic and political front. Recently, the United States' decision to limit the flow of intelligence to Ukraine has favored the Russian advance in some strategic areas. This change in approach has raised doubts about the real American position and has fueled tensions between Western allies.
Europe, for its part, is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it faces economic pressures from sanctions against Russia; on the other, it must maintain a united front to support Ukraine. However, the lack of a clear strategy could lead to internal divisions and a weakening of its global position.
In this context, the European Union recently announced an ambitious €800 billion plan for rearmament, called "ReArm Europe". This plan aims to strengthen European defense through significant investments, including €650 billion from national resources and €150 billion from loans guaranteed by the community budget.2 The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stressed that we live in an era of rearmament and that Europe must be ready to defend itself autonomously.
The impact on the Forex world
This geopolitical situation has inevitably had repercussions on the Forex market. The war in Ukraine has already caused significant volatility in global currencies, with the euro coming under pressure due to economic uncertainties in Europe. At the same time, the US dollar has shown relative strength, but recent ambiguity in US foreign policy could weaken this position.
Emerging market currencies, especially those close to the conflict, remain highly vulnerable. The Russian ruble, for example, has seen significant swings, reflecting economic sanctions and the country's internal dynamics.
What to expect going forward
Looking ahead, the forex market is likely to remain highly volatile. Investors will need to closely monitor geopolitical developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. The key will be to maintain a flexible approach and diversify portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with this global uncertainty.
In conclusion, the current situation presents an unprecedented challenge for traders and investors. However, with a well-planned strategy and careful analysis of the context, it is possible to navigate through these turbulent waters and identify investment opportunities.
Bearish on EURUSD"Last week, the EUR strengthened by more than 5% against the USD, a notable move driven by market uncertainty surrounding President Trump's proposed tariffs. This appreciation unfolded without significant corrections, reflecting sustained buying pressure in the currency pair. The 1.09 level currently stands as a critical daily resistance, which may cap further upside in the near term. My analysis suggests an impending reversal around these levels, a view reinforced by the emergence of a bearish butterfly pattern on the charts, signaling potential exhaustion of the bullish momentum.
This anticipated downturn aligns with broader market dynamics, including escalating global geopolitical tensions. Ongoing trade disputes, heightened by tariff uncertainties, continue to rattle investor confidence.
TP 1.06
TP 1.03
