EURUSD: Bears May Regain Control of the PriceEURUSD: Bears May Regain Control of the Price
From our previous analysis, EURUSD extended the Z wave to 1.1495 due to high volatility and speculation related to Trump's comments against China and the old price theme.
However, nothing changed again. EURUSD found sellers near 1.1495 which had already rejected the price again and it seems that the downward movement may resume soon.
We do not have clear signs of a reversal yet, but as long as the price is holding and the patterns are valid, the chances are that EURUSD will fall as shown in the chart.
Bearish Targets:
1.1230 – First major support level
1.1100 – Possible second target
1.1000 – A deeper correction point
1.0900 – Strong structural support
You may find more details in the chart!
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USDEUR trade ideas
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1433, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.1386, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1457, a swing-high resistance level.
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Correction on EURUSDAfter Friday’s news, EURUSD reached 1,1368.
Make a note of the news candle and wait for a breakout.
If the retracement continues, the next key support level is 1,1317.
Important USD-related news is expected this Wednesday.
Watch for potential trend continuation setups and avoid rushing into new trades.
Despite some difficulties, EUR is still in an uptrendThe European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and said inflation was close to its medium-term target of 2%. Trump's tariff policies have loosened financial conditions, suggesting further easing is likely.
This dovish stance has put some pressure on the euro. Preliminary eurozone CPI data for May showed that inflationary pressures slowed more than expected, dragging the euro down. Germany’s manufacturing PMI for May was weaker than expected, suggesting further contraction in the manufacturing sector; France’s services PMI was better than expected, but still in contraction territory. Eurozone economic data has been mixed. European Central Bank President Lagarde said the monetary easing cycle was coming to an end, boosting market confidence in the euro over the medium term.
But caution will still be needed about the impact of Trump’s tariff policies on the global economy. While the ECB believes trade tensions have eased, the eurozone is not completely out of the woods. If future economic data remains weak, the euro could face downward pressure.
On the daily chart of OANDA:EURUSD after receiving support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level with horizontal support at 1.12038, the recovery momentum has created a significant increase. Specifically, the increase has tested the levels of 1.14744 and 1.14212, please note that in the previous publication about EUR/USD, these levels are also the nearest resistance at present.
However, in terms of the overall technical picture, EUR/USD is still in a bullish trend with a break above 1.14744 opening the door for a new bullish cycle with a short-term target of 1.15720.
Intraday, the bullish outlook for EUR/USD will be highlighted again by the following price points.
Support: 1.13788 – 1.12422
Resistance: 1.14212 – 1.14744
EURUSD InsightHello to all subscribers, and welcome!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the Boost and Subscribe buttons!
Key Points
- There was a report suggesting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to consider slowing the pace of tapering at its monetary policy meeting later this month. Currently, it is reducing bond purchases by ¥400 billion per quarter, but a plan to cut that to ¥200 billion is reportedly under discussion.
- According to the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm payrolls in May increased by 139,000, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate for May came in at 4.2%, matching forecasts.
- On June 5, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call. At the upcoming U.S.-China high-level meeting on June 9, export controls each country has implemented to block essential raw materials and technologies from reaching the other are expected to be a major topic of discussion.
This Week’s Key Economic Events
+ June 11: U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
+ June 12: U.K. April GDP, U.S. May Producer Price Index (PPI)
+ June 13: Germany May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
EURUSD Chart Analysis
The pair is rebounding from the 1.11500 level and is currently trending upward toward resistance near the recent high. A short-term rise toward the 1.16000 level looks highly likely. However, it remains uncertain whether it will break above the resistance level. We'll reassess the direction once the price reaches the previous high.
EURUSD Reversal Play Inside a Mean-Reverting Trend?EURUSD has already made its bullish push — but now it's flashing mixed signals. While the trend suggests continuation, forex's mean-reverting nature says otherwise. This low-probability idea targets a drop to the 4H range lows, then a rebound to retest the highs. Caution: we’re trading the chop here, not the trend.
Nato and EU meetings could lift EUR/USD further Despite believing the euro is currently overvalued, Bank of America prefers it to the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
Bank of America thinks the EUR could be supported leading up to the NATO and EU summits (June 24-27) especially if defense spending is confirmed. German infrastructure spending might also be expected to support the euro.
The EUR/USD holds above the 20- and 50-period EMAs at 1.1380–1.1360 and is comfortably above the 200-period EMA. The recent pull-back from 1.14930 has eased momentum slightly.
A close above 1.1420 could target 1.1470, then 1.1520. A sustained break below 1.1280 could neutralise the bullish bias.
Week of 6/8/25: EU AnalysisPrice has reached the extreme of daily bearish structure and we can see a rejection of the 4h latest push to make another high. We're following 1h internal bearish structure to at least take out the weak low, thus making 1h structure bearish and following that to the 4h extreme swing low.
Major news:
Core CPI - Wednesday
EURUSD: Weekly Overview June 9th 2025Hello Traders,
US CPI news is really important and could change the direction of the markets. But I think the Pair would keep its bullish trend for next week too.
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1406
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1433
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1358
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Overall bullish continuationI am expecting a minor pullback, because price has changed charcater on the 1hr timeframe, i expect price to pull back towards the 1.14500 area, near the liquidity zone, then a continuation downwards to mitigate a bullish order block near 1.12500 area, then continue upwards targeting 1.1500 area.
A violation is when price clearly breaks below 1.1200.
Trade wisely, this is an analysis and not a financial advise.
EURUSD 4 HOUR OUTLOOK Price mitigated 4hour supply and pullback or retraces to internal sell to buy candle and the zone has been mitigated before.
Anticipating price to break structure to the upside and pullback or...
anticipating price to buy shorts when the market opens and sell to DISCOUNT ( lower time frame- we have a change of character - internal structure
Price will break structure to the upside and continues with HTF bias
Price will clear sell side liquidity to Discount level either one of the marked demands.
I will use h1/m30 time frame for confirmation
EURUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Economic data in the eurozone was mixed.The EUR/USD trended higher in a volatile fashion this week, gaining 0.41% on a weekly basis. It briefly reached a six-week high of 1.1495 on Thursday but retreated to 1.1395 on Friday due to a stronger US dollar. Nevertheless, the euro showed overall robust performance during the week. Analysts were not surprised by the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate cut, but they remained cautious about the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy. Although the ECB believes trade tensions have eased, analysts argue that the eurozone has not fully escaped risks. If future economic data continues to be weak, the euro may face downward pressure.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
EURUSD Potential Long then ShortEUR/USD looking to trade around a key supply zone between 1.1450–1.1500. We’re watching for signs of bearish rejection to build a short bias from this area. No trade unless price confirms.
Main Setup:
If price retests upper zone (~1.1450–1.1500) and shows clear bearish price action, I’ll be looking to enter short.
Ideal signs: rejection wicks, SFPs, bearish engulfing, lower timeframe structure shift.
Break & Retest Option:
If price breaks below 1.1390, a clean bearish retest could offer a continuation short setup.
Structure break confirmation is key here.
This is a forecast, and trades will be dependent on live PA.
If we don’t get confirmation, we don’t force it. Patience is key.
DXY Outlook:
The Dollar Index looks bearish overall but is currently in a small corrective bounce. A short-term DXY pullback would support a push into EUR/USD’s supply zone — lining up nicely with our plan. If DXY flips back to bullish, that strengthens our short setup.