EUR/USD Breakdown Imminent – Rising Wedge at Major ResistanceOn the 1H chart, EUR/USD has developed a Rising Wedge pattern, a classical bearish reversal formation. The pair has been moving higher within a tightening structure, marked by converging trendlines—indicating weakening bullish momentum.
What makes this pattern more compelling is that it’s occurring just below a well-defined Major Resistance Zone around 1.1380–1.1400, where previous attempts to break higher have failed. This area has historically acted as a strong supply zone, increasing the probability of a reversal.
🔍 Key Technical Components:
Rising Wedge Pattern: The wedge reflects a temporary uptrend with weakening strength. Bullish candles are getting smaller, and volume appears to be fading (not shown here but typically expected in this setup).
Black Mind Curve Support: A custom support curve illustrating the underlying parabolic trend. Once this is broken, it often leads to a steeper selloff.
Change of Character (CHOCH): Around the 1.1260 level, there's a possible shift from bullish to bearish structure. If price breaks and closes below this level, it will likely confirm a momentum reversal.
Target Projection: The measured move and previous structural support suggest a drop toward 1.11479, which coincides with a prior demand zone. This also aligns with a potential liquidity sweep beneath recent lows.
🔔 Price Action Signals to Watch:
Bearish engulfing candles or strong rejections from the wedge’s upper boundary.
Breakdown below the lower wedge line and the curved support.
CHOCH confirmation – market structure shift from bullish to bearish around 1.1260.
Retest of the wedge breakout level, followed by continuation to the downside.
📌 Trading Plan (Not Financial Advice):
Entry: On break and retest of wedge support.
Stop Loss: Above the wedge high or resistance (~1.1400).
Target: 1.11479 for first take-profit level; partials can be taken at 1.1260 if needed.
📉 Bias:
Short-Term Bearish – Only upon wedge breakdown and confirmation.
🧠 Minds Section (Expanded for Traders' Perspective)
EUR/USD is approaching a critical technical juncture. We are seeing a textbook rising wedge formation into a major resistance zone, signaling exhaustion of bullish strength. While the pair has enjoyed upward momentum, price action is showing signs of slowing, and the structure is no longer sustainable.
This pattern often traps late buyers before reversing. We are closely watching the lower wedge boundary and curved support—a breakdown here will likely trigger bearish momentum, especially with the CHOCH area near 1.1260 acting as a structure-defining level.
If sellers gain control and the breakdown confirms, there’s high probability for a fall to 1.11479, targeting prior demand zones and potential liquidity pockets.
Now is the time to be cautious if long, or begin planning short setups. Wait for confirmation—no need to rush the trade.
