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USDEUR trade ideas

The surge in the euro was expected 💡Message Strategy Since the beginning of this trading week, a number of economic data released by the United States have been weak. Following the decline in the manufacturing PMI, the ISM service PMI for May released on Wednesday fell to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year. In addition, the ADP employment data was also far below expectations, with only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, which strengthened the market's concerns about the risk of a US recession, thereby dragging down the US dollar. At the same time, risk aversion and uncertainty in the United States have not improved significantly, and trade tensions, debt prospects and weak US bond yields have put pressure on the US dollar. Obviously, in the game between eurozone monetary policy and US economic data, the euro wins. 📊Technical aspects From the daily chart, the exchange rate has maintained a strong oscillation pattern since mid-April, and has generally been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The upper track of the Bollinger Bands is currently at 1.1471, and the lower track is at 1.1118. The Bollinger Bands are slightly open, indicating a rebound in volatility. The MACD indicator shows that the double lines form a golden cross, and the bar chart turns from green to red, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening; the RSI indicator remains near 57, slightly in the neutral to bullish area, and has not yet reached the overbought level. The overall technical pattern tends to fluctuate upward. If it breaks through the 1.1500 area, it will continue to rise. At present, the main idea is still to do more on the callback, and do not blindly chase the short. Long Position: 1.14450-1.14650
Long
by TheodoreSilas
1
Using The Zig-Zag Indicator To Gain Clarity On Your Price ChartIn my experience, learning how to read a price chart, specifically understanding the ebbs and flows of a trend, is the biggest hurdle that newer traders face. At least on the technical side of things. Something that helped me shorten that learning curve at the beginning of my trading career was the "Zig-Zag" indicator. Now, I didn't use it as part of a strategy or anything like that. Rather, it was a tool that helped train my eyes to read extensions and retracements in the markets both at a beginner and advanced level. If you're someone that is struggling, hopefully it can do the same for you. Please remember to support by hitting that like button and if you thought this video was helpful please share so other traders can benefit as well. Akil
Education
by Akil_Stokes
4
EURUSD – Upper Boundary Holds Firm, Watch for a PullbackEURUSD remains well-contained within its ascending channel, but price has repeatedly been rejected near the upper boundary around the 1.14790 zone. This highlights that profit-taking pressure near the previous high remains significant. The current bounce from the lower boundary is unconvincing, as the recent highs are not surpassing the previous ones. While EMA34 and EMA89 are still offering support, if price moves toward 1.14790 but fails to break through, a “minor double top” pattern may emerge—raising the risk of a short-term correction. A notable scenario would be a rejection at 1.14790, followed by a pullback toward the lower channel boundary around 1.13870. A break below this level could temporarily invalidate the short-term uptrend. At this stage, buyers should remain patient and only look to re-enter near clear support zones. Avoid chasing entries near major resistance areas.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
The Day Ahed🇺🇸 United States May Jobs Report: Expected to show 125,000 new jobs (vs. 177,000 in April); unemployment rate likely steady at 4.2%. Slower hiring may reflect effects of trade tensions. April Consumer Credit: Will reveal household borrowing trends. "Buy Now, Pay Later" usage is up, especially among younger, wealthier consumers. Consumer stress rising. 🇯🇵 Japan April Household Spending: Fell 0.1% YoY, below expectations (+1.4%). Inflation outpaced wage growth, curbing spending. Leading Economic Index: Fell 0.7%, pointing to a potential slowdown due to weak new orders and U.S. trade policy uncertainty. Coincident Index: Up 0.1% in January, but down 0.4% over six months—indicates stagnating current economic activity. 🇩🇪 Germany April Industrial Production: Rose 0.3% MoM, rebounding after a sharp March decline. Industrial and mining sectors showed improvement. Trade Balance: Data awaited. Recent uptick in orders (+0.6% in April) suggests signs of manufacturing recovery. 🇫🇷 France Trade Balance & Current Account: April data pending. In recent months, the current account deficit narrowed due to reduced goods imports. Industrial Production: Will provide further insight into economic activity. 🇪🇺 Eurozone April Retail Sales: Scheduled for release. Will indicate regional consumer spending strength. 🇨🇦 Canada May Jobs Report: Will offer a snapshot of labor market health amid economic uncertainty. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
ECB rate announcement in focusthe European Central Bank (ECB) will be in focus today at 12:15 pm GMT and is anticipated to reduce rates amid recent CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) softening by more-than-expected in May to 1.9% at the headline year-on-year (YY) level from 2.2% in April. YY core inflation – a measure that excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices – also softened to 2.3% in May from 2.7% in April. I believe the last thing the ECB wants to do is shock the markets today, so I would be very surprised if they maintained rates at current levels. The decision, however, will be far from unanimous, with divisions among the 26 members who make up the ECB’s decision-making body. Markets expect the central bank to reduce all three benchmark rates by 25 bps, which would lower the deposit facility rate to 2.00% and the refinancing rate to 2.15%. If the ECB proceeds with another rate cut, this would mark the eighth reduction since the central bank commenced its easing cycle in mid-2024. With a rate cut already baked in, I think the question top of mind among investors is what comes next. The ECB will likely want to signal a pause following today's cut, albeit a ‘dovish pause’. In the ECB’s macroeconomic projections, analysts are also expecting notable downward revisions to inflation and growth. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how they convey this via language in their rate statement and in ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. However, I find it very unlikely that forward guidance will provide a clear path, and the central bank is likely to remain in a data-dependent mode. While a dovish cut from the ECB could send the EUR/USD southbound today, I expect it to be short-lived if US employment data comes in lower than expected on Friday. Despite a temporary push lower potentially unfolding in the pair today, I remain bullish EUR/USD. As shown on the chart, the pair is shaking hands with monthly resistance from US$1.1457. Those who regularly follow my research will know that I am not enthusiastic about this level, given the inability of price to push through monthly support at US$1.1134 in May. Should follow-through buying emerge and US$1.1457 bids are consumed, I will be watching monthly resistance as far north as US$1.2028-US$1.1930. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets
EURUSD Will Collapse! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1437 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1336 Safe Stop Loss - 1.1501 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD HTF IOF continuationEURUSD is currently in the sell side of the SMR model as price swept the Previous Month High , and a classic example of SMR has taken place. Draw on liquidity is the deeply discounted H4 Unmitigated Bullish OB found at the 70.5% fib . I Believe that Price will either reach the D.O.L through NFP news release , or price will continue retracing to the POI prior to news release I believe L.O.M should be set here , followed by a continued bulls rally following HTF IOF.
Long
by jacquesnortje
What is the TACO trade in forex trading? The “TACO trade” – short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” – originated in equity markets but is equally relevant in forex. The pattern is simple: Trump signals aggressive tariffs, markets react and then reverse when the threat is walked back. One example: In May 2025, the U.S. dollar weakened sharply after Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU imports. EUR/USD rallied to 1.1440 as traders priced in slower U.S. growth. But just days later, the Trump delayed the tariffs to July, and the dollar quickly regained ground. For forex traders, the TACO trade strategy is about timing: entering on initial panic and exiting on the rollback. That said, it’s not without risk. If tariffs are actually enforced, the dollar’s decline may be more prolonged. And with markets increasingly aware of this pattern, reactions may become less predictable.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.1367 1st Support: 1.1278 1st Resistance: 1.1475 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURUSD Sell SetupEURUSD – Institutional Short Setup 🔻 Timeframe: 1H Date: June 3, 2025 Strategy: OdinVerse HP – Bank Entry Trap + Supply Stack Breakdown 🧠 Smart Money Logic 🔍 Key Zone Details 🔴 Upper Bank Sell Entry (1.14539 – 1.14337) Final liquidity sweep into major HTF supply – fakeout push before drop. 🔴 Lower Bank Sell Entry (1.14210 – 1.14127) True institutional entry zone. Price retested this zone before rejection. 🔻 Current Reaction Zone Price is rejecting the lower zone with bearish follow-through and structure shift. 🔑 Key Confluences Fakeout Above Trendline → Trap breakouts at the top of rising wedge. Double Bank Sell Zones → Clear signs of institutional order stacking. Market Structure Shift → Clean BOS (break of structure) after retest of lower zone. Mitigation Complete → Last bullish OB fully mitigated, turning supply active. Daily EQM Sweep → Targeting imbalance & unfilled FVGs below (1.1285 to 1.1200). 🎯 Targets 🎯 TP Levels Zone/Logic 1.13884 Prior demand base / FVG top 1.12854 Major imbalance completion 1.12545 – 1.1200 Liquidity grab + OB tap zone ⚔️ Execution Plan In Position? Hold – structure confirms clean sell trap. Missed Entry? Wait for M5–M15 OB retest or mitigation around 1.1415. Reversal Risk? Only invalid if 1.1454 breaks with close above. 🔥 OdinVerse Grade: A+ Setup ✔ HTF Supply Confluence ✔ Dual Bank Entry Zones ✔ Structure Shift ✔ Clean Downside Liquidity Targets
Short
by Delast2
Euro Dollar(EUR/USD), are institutional investors still bullish?The European Central Bank (ECB) unveils a new monetary policy decision this Thursday, June 5, and the consensus is for further cuts in all three ECB interest rates. The ECB's key rate (the main rate at which banks refinance with the ECB) currently stands at 2.40% and should be cut to 2.15% according to the analyst consensus, in other words, a return of the ECB's key rate to the neutral zone for the Eurozone economy (neither restrictive nor accommodative). However, institutional traders are still predominantly bullish on the euro-dollar rate, so let's take stock of the overall technical situation. 1) Institutional traders are still buying the euro-dollar rate (EUR/USD) Every Friday, the CFTC's Commitment Of Traders (COT) report provides access to the positioning of institutional traders (asset management traders and hedge fund traders) on EUR/USD futures contracts. Net positioning represents the difference between buy and sell positions. If the net position curve is above zero and following an upward trend, then institutional investors are buying. This is precisely the case for the EUR/USD institutional net position, with over 60% of institutional investors buying. As for the absolute net position, it is well above zero and has been trending upwards for the past three months. The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, as well as the net position of institutional traders on the EUR/USD rate in the form of the percentage of buy positions. The second chart below is a histogram revealing the institutional net position in absolute terms (yellow line), which is following an upward trend and broke through descending resistance several weeks ago. 2) In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD rate is backed by support at $1.10/$1.12, but remains covered by major resistance at $1.15. The monthly chart gives an opinion on the medium/long-term trend. A study of the monthly chart of the euro-dollar exchange rate highlights a bullish signal that has been given over the last two months. This is the bullish technical breakout of a downtrend line that joins all the most prominent peaks since the 2008 financial crisis. If this graphic signal is not invalidated by a bearish reintegration, then the trend will remain bullish for the euro-dollar rate in the medium term, with corrections still possible in the short term. This market view would therefore be invalidated in the event of a break of support at $1.10/$1.12 on the basis of a minimum weekly close. Long-term chart showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for the euro-dollar rate, highlighting the bullish technical breakout of resistance in place since the 2008 financial crisis. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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by Swissquote
EUR/USD Potential longs to the upsideEU Weekly Outlook — Bullish Pro-Trend Setup in Focus This week, my EU analysis is centered around the pro-trend movement to the upside. Price has recently broken structure and in doing so, has left behind clean demand zones on the 5H and 3H timeframes. I’ll be watching closely to see when price decides to mitigate these levels for a potential long setup. Since price is still a bit far from these zones, short-term sells may be possible, but with no strong nearby supply, I’ll be staying patient and letting price action guide me. The key is to avoid marrying any one bias and remain adaptable. Confluences for EU Buys: - Strong bullish structure on higher timeframes - Clean and unmitigated 5H and 3H demand zones - Plenty of liquidity above, including Asia highs - This is a pro-trend trade, aligning with market flow - DXY analysis supports a bullish EU outlook P.S. If price shifts and breaks structure to the downside, then we could consider short-term sell setups — but for now, I’m focused on the long opportunity forming from demand. Have a great trading week and stay sharp! 🧠💹
Long
by Hassan_fx
5
EUR/USD) breakout Analysis Read The ChaptianSMC trading point update Technical analysis for EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) on a 3-hour timeframe presents a bearish outlook. Here's a breakdown of the key ideas and elements in the analysis: --- 1. Breakdown of Rising Channel Ascending Channel: Price was moving upward within a clearly defined channel. Breakout: The price broke below the ascending channel, indicating a potential trend reversal or correction. --- 2. Resistance Zone (Yellow Box) Multiple Rejections: Red arrows mark points of rejection from the resistance area. “Breakout” Label: Indicates this area was previously a support that turned into resistance after the price dropped below it. --- 3. EMA 200 The 200 EMA is plotted and the price is trading slightly above it, but very close. A break and sustained movement below the 200 EMA would typically support a bearish trend continuation. --- 4. Bearish Projection Downward Zigzag Path: Implies an expected short-term correction followed by further decline. Target Points: First target: 1.11307 Second, more extended target: 1.10639 --- 5. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Current Value: Around 38.84, which is near the oversold region (30). Bearish Momentum: RSI is trending downwards, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum. --- 6. Fundamental Events Multiple icons at the bottom (e.g., flags, calendar) indicate upcoming economic events/news which could influence volatility and confirm or invalidate the move. Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: This analysis suggests a bearish short- to medium-term outlook for EUR/USD, especially if price confirms a break below the 200 EMA. The resistance zone (around 1.133–1.135) is now seen as a supply zone, and the targets are around 1.113 and 1.106. --- Suggestions/Considerations: Watch the 200 EMA: A solid break below it would reinforce the bearish bias. Monitor Fundamentals: U.S. and Eurozone economic news could heavily impact price action. RSI Oversold Caution: If RSI dips further, a bounce might occur before full target completion. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
14
#EURUSD: Nothing to expect from DXY| View Changed Swing Trading|Hey there! So, we were previously thinking EURUSD was going to be bearish, but things have turned around and it’s looking bullish for now. The extreme bearish pressure on USD has caused all the major USD pairs to be in a range. As the week goes on and we get the NFP data, the market will probably focus more on these economic indicators. So, it’s not surprising to see some market ranges during this time. We’ll keep a close eye on the market, as there might be some manipulation going on this week. We recommend waiting until Monday’s daily candle closes to see if the bullish trend is strong enough. Then, based on the price momentum, you can make your decisions. We hope you have a great week and safe trading! If you like our work and analysis, please consider liking, commenting, and sharing our content. Cheers, Team Setupsfx ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
28