USDEUR trade ideas
EURUSD I Monthly CLS I KL -MOB I Model 1Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
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EURUSD Bullish Setup: Watching for a Break and Retest📈 Looking at EURUSD right now, we’re in a strong bullish structure 🔼 — but it’s clearly overextended 🚀
As we head into the end of the week, there’s still potential for more upside today ⬆️ — but ⚠️ be cautious, since Fridays often bring retracements as we move into the weekly close 🕒📉
🔍 I’m watching for a bullish opportunity if we get a break above the current equal highs, followed by a retest and failure to break back below 🧠📊
If that setup doesn’t materialize, we’ll simply step aside and abandon the idea 🚫
💬 Not financial advice — always trade at your own risk.
EURUSD Short, 03 JuneHTF shows clear Bearish OBs on both W and D, with doji & hammer formations hinting at buyer exhaustion. Expecting a pullback into imbalance below.
On LTF, we’ve had a clean BOS in Asia, followed by a retrace into the last 15m extreme OB – an ideal scenario for forming a new lower high in the ongoing bearish trend.
📉 Entry: 1m BOS + reaction from 15m POI
🧩 Confluence: Asia BOS, LTF structure, DXY alignment
🎯 TP: Asia Low (less than 3RR), potential to run further into HTF imbalance
🛡️ Context: All factors align – HTF bias, LTF trend, and precise entry logic.
A textbook continuation play – if we’re going to turn, this is the zone to do it.
EURUSD Elliott Wave Update: Upward Momentum ResumesThe EURUSD Elliott Wave sequence initiated from the September 2022 low reveals an incomplete bullish structure, signaling potential for further upside. A short-term rally from the May 29, 2025 low is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse. As depicted in the 1-hour chart below, wave ((i)) peaked at 1.16319. A corrective wave ((ii)) followed which concluded at 1.14435. The internal structure of wave ((ii)) formed a zigzag pattern, with wave (a) declining to 1.1486 and wave (b) rebounding to 1.1614. Wave (c) completed the correction at 1.144, finalizing wave ((ii)) in the higher degree.
The pair has resumed its ascent in wave ((iii)), exhibiting an impulsive internal subdivision. From the wave ((ii)) low, wave i advanced to 1.1544, followed by a minor dip in wave ii to 1.1451. Wave iii surged to 1.1641, with a subsequent wave iv pullback ending at 1.1587. The final leg, wave v, culminated at 1.1745, completing wave (i) in the higher degree. A corrective wave (ii) pullback, likely a three-wave zigzag, appears to have concluded at 1.1678. However, a break above the wave (i) high at 1.1745 is required to negate the possibility of a double correction lower. Given the shallow nature of the wave (ii) pullback, the risk of a deeper correction remains. However, as long as the pivotal low at 1.144 holds, dips should attract buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swings, supporting further upside momentum.
EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI📉 EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI, and Bearish Momentum Ahead
Bias: Short / Sell Setup
EUR/USD recently surged toward the 1.0750 zone sooner than expected, driven more by market optimism and speculative flows than solid fundamentals.
Now, that optimism is starting to fade as data fails to back it up.
Meanwhile, the potential U.S. tax reform proposal (Trump) and signs of renewed trade negotiations are helping shift sentiment back toward the U.S. dollar in the coming 10 days.
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🇩🇪 German CPI – Neutral Print, But Bearish Implications
Today's regional inflation figures across German states were mixed:
States like Saxony and Baden-Württemberg showed slightly rising prices
Others like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia showed declining YoY inflation
Final national CPI due later today is unlikely to beat expectations meaningfully
🎯 Summary: A Neutral CPI Print
No upside surprise → No support for EUR
No major downside → No panic either
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🧠 Why "Neutral" Data Can Still Be Bearish for EUR
The market was hoping for a strong CPI to signal that ECB may pause rate cuts
Neutral inflation = ECB may still lean dovish
EUR rose on hope — but data offered no confirmation
In financial markets, failed expectations often trigger stronger corrections than bad news.
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🔍 Technical Overview:
Price approaching strong supply zone near 1.0740 – 1.0760
RSI showing divergence on lower timeframes (H1)
Structure on M15 suggests potential for lower highs
Price stalling under resistance, with no bullish momentum follow-through
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🎯 Trade Plan:
Bias: Short
Entry Zone: 1.0730 – 1.0755
Stop Loss: Above 1.0775
Take Profit 1: 1.0630
Take Profit 2: 1.0600
Trigger: Break of M15 bearish structure or supply reaction
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📌 Markets punish over-optimism more than fear.
EUR/USD may correct lower as hopes of a strong CPI fade and macro flows tilt toward the USD.
Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy:Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy: Between Price Stability and Currency Tension
The Eurozone’s latest data points to a relatively stable and controlled macroeconomic environment, with a key milestone just reached:
📊 June inflation hit 2.0%, aligning precisely with the ECB’s long-term target.
Growth remains moderate but positive, and unemployment is stable. From a classical policy perspective, this setup would typically justify further interest rate cuts to stimulate demand and support economic expansion.
But there’s a growing complication:
The euro has strengthened significantly in recent weeks, driven not just by economic fundamentals but also by capital inflows and a weakening U.S. dollar. A stronger euro, while often seen as a sign of investor confidence, can hurt exports, reduce competitiveness, and dampen inflation further — potentially becoming a drag on recovery.
As a result, the ECB finds itself in a policy dilemma:
Cutting rates could stimulate growth, but risk driving the euro even higher.
Slowing down or pausing rate cuts could stabilize the currency, but may stall economic momentum.
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🔁 Reflexivity at Work
This dynamic highlights George Soros' theory of reflexivity — where market perceptions shape fundamentals, and those fundamentals in turn reshape perceptions.
> “Market prices are always distorted by prevailing biases.”
— George Soros
The current rally in the euro may not reflect fundamentals alone. If the move exceeds investor expectations, it could trigger emotional reactions, abrupt capital shifts, or even corrections — despite a solid economic base.
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⚠️ Key Takeaways
June inflation at 2.0% gives ECB a clean slate to act — but with caution.
Currency appreciation can delay or distort the impact of monetary easing.
Market reflexivity may accelerate reactions beyond what data alone would justify.
Policy credibility now hinges not just on data, but on timing and communication.
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In today’s market, price and psychology move together. Stability on paper doesn't always mean stability in execution.
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello friends! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my view on EUR-USD with you.
Looking at the EUR-USD chart, I see two potential scenarios ahead:
🔹 Scenario 1 – Bearish:
If EUR-USD breaks below 1.16836 on the 15-minute time frame, I expect a downward move toward the 1.16319 to 1.15850 area.
🔹 Scenario 2 – Bullish then Bearish:
If the price rises from the current level, I expect an initial move up toward 1.17937, followed by a decline back toward the 1.16319 to 1.15850 zone.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
📌 Support: 1.16836 / 1.16319 / 1.15850
📌 Resistance: 1.17937
💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD? Let me know in the comments below.
Trade safe
EUR/USD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR/USD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 17H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.160 area.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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PO3 (Manipulation spike into Premium → Distribution)Price swept liquidity above the recent high → tapped into FVG at a premium
BOS and CHOCH are already present earlier → confirming the reversal structure
Expecting a bearish reaction from this imbalance zone
📉 EUR/USD Short Setup – June 27
🔹 Entry: 1.17380
🔹 SL: 1.17510
🔹 TP1: 1.17080 | TP2: 1.16800
🔻 PO3 bearish reaction from FVG at Premium zone + prior liquidity sweep
pls let me know your opinion am open to let from anyone and everyone, pls
EURUSD Short Projections for Big Beautiful BillI think we may hit a resistance point soon and drop to around 1.16 or lower. Based on the fundamentals of the Big Beautiful Bill. I think this will be short term and the USD may lose strength.
It will have large economic impact, I think this will happen in short term.
FX:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1765
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1807
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.1712
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Potential Correction AheadThe overarching 5-wave structure from January 9, 2025, to today is nearing completion. We are currently in Wave 5, with the subordinate Wave 3 in progress. Within this, the sub-subordinate Wave 5 is just starting. Once the overarching Wave 5 concludes, expect a multi-week correction. The correction is projected to target levels between 1.1173 and 1.075.
The Day Ahead Major Economic Data:
US:
ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook.
Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength.
Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check.
China:
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown.
Japan:
Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy.
Eurozone:
June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path.
Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators.
Central Bank Highlights:
ECB Sintra Forum Panel:
Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE).
Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks.
Other ECB Speakers:
Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves.
ECB Consumer Survey:
Offers insight into household inflation expectations.
Market View:
US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak.
Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance.
China’s PMI is a global growth signal.
Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook.
Overall:
Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
German CPI flatlines, eurozone CPI nextThe euro is up for an eighth consecutive day and has gained 2.4% during that time. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1738, up 0.36% on the day.
German inflation data on Monday pointed to a weakening German economy. The CPI report indicated that the deflationary process slowly continues. The inflation rate for June came in at 0% m/m, down from 0.1% in May and below the consensus of 0.2%. Annually, inflation dropped to 2.0% from 2.1% and below the consensus of 2.1%. The eurozone releases its CPI report on Tuesday.
Inflation has been dropping in small increments and has now fallen to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2%. The ECB cut the deposit rate to 2.0% earlier in June and meets next in July. Although eurozone inflation is largely contained, there are concerns about the impact that US tariffs and counter-tariffs by US trading partners could have on the inflation picture. The ECB is likely to maintain rates in July but could lower rates in September if disinflation continues.
The US continues to show signs that the economy is slowing down. Last week, GDP was revised downwards to -0.5% in the first quarter. This was followed by US consumer spending for May (PCE) which posted a 0.1% decline, following a 0.2% gain in April and shy of the consensus of 0.1%. This was the first contraction since January. If economic data continues to head lower, pressure will increase on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which isn't expected before the September meeting.
EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1755. Above, there is resistance at 1.1791
1.1718 and 1.1682 are the next support levels
EURUSD: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 1.17225 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 1.17114.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1774
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1792
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK