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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR to push higher Let's start with the daily TF: We've been in a downward channel for a while now and price seem to try and break out of it to the upside now. Adding to that we also have some equal highs above that haven't been touched for a while now and you can expect that liquidity to be grabbed. Note how that level correspond exactly to the weekly R1 pivot point as well. You can expect some resistance once we reach that level. 4h: Here we can see the price delivery has been very efficient on the way up, leaving but one small imbalance We have a clear bullish hidden divergence on RSI as well and equal highs sitting just above the previous swing high. We're about to enter a previous support/resistance zone which coincide perfectly with the imbalance left yesterday during the push up which looks like the perfect long setup entry to play the continuation long. (which correspond to the 50% retracement from the previous swing low) 5min for entry: Following the HTF analysis and looking at the 5min for entry, we can see that yesterday's R1 pivot correspond to the 79% retracement from the last low before the big push up that didn't give any proper pullback since. It's also at the S/R seen on HTF Entry at that level would be ideal with a SL below S1 pivot and targeting at least the low hanging fruit at the equal highs for a first TP. As always make sure you only trade what you CAN lose and use proper stop loss to avoid any big losses. Nothing is never certain, it's just a game of stacking probability in your favor.
Long
by Nordic_Wings
EUR/USD Extends Gains – Will the Uptrend Continue?EUR/USD continues its upward movement, in line with Friday’s trend, confirming our previous predictions and strategy. The pair is trading around 1.0500, with buyers still defending the price channel. Later on Friday, the HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone will be released. If the data is positive, EUR/USD could continue its bullish momentum, aiming for the upper boundary of the parallel price channel. 💬 What are your thoughts on EUR/USD? Will the bullish trend hold?
Long
by Lana_Scalping
EURUSD Is Going Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.047. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.040 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD 17 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment No major economic news for today and market sentiment still continuing as per my Weekly Analysis 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing continuation after BOS, Waiting Swing pullback phase. 2️⃣ 🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. 🔹After the recent Swing BOS, INT structures continuing bullish and I’m expecting the 15m BOS pullback to start soon with Bearish iBOS. 🔹Current INT structures could be treated as Swing structures, but I prefer to have the 15m Swing Bullish even when we have a deep pullback. 🔹INT Structure still can hold bullish to facilitate the 4H target the Weak Swing High (Bullish BOS on 4H before pullback). 3️⃣ 🔹As it’s Monday and no much catalyst Today, I prefer longs from the INT structure demand following the bullish structures on 15m and 4H while knowing that pullback can start at any time soon where I can shift to Intraday Bearish after confirmation (Bearish iBOS).
by Amr-Sadek
4-hr EUR/USD: Could THE EUR Rally Another 200 PipsOver the past few weeks, the EUR/USD currency pair has shifted its direction and gained around 300 pips in an upward movement. This rally led to the formation of a Double Top pattern slightly above the 1.05 level. As a result, the price is currently experiencing a pullback. We anticipate that this decline could extend further downward, with the potential to test the 1.04 region. This level coincides with the key 38% Fibonacci retracement, a historically strong support zone that has influenced price action in previous instances. Given the prevailing bullish momentum, we are inclined to enter a long trade once the price reaches this support area. Our bias is reinforced by the presence of a Golden Cross, a widely recognized technical indicator that signals a buying opportunity. However, to maximize our risk-to-reward ratio, we prefer to wait for the price to retrace toward the 38% Fibonacci level before executing a buy order. Once the trade is triggered, our target will be positioned above the 1.05 resistance zone, aiming to capture the next bullish wave. This approach ensures a strategic entry while leveraging strong technical signals to optimize trade performance.
Long
by Trendsharks
EURUSD (IT WILL CROSS THE DECLINE CHANNEL?)The price has risen and stabilized above 1.0348, signaling a continuation of the upward movement toward the next resistance level at 1.0438. Upon reaching this level, the price will face the channel boundary, which serves as a critical point for further movement. A successful breakout above the channel and surpassing 1.0522 will confirm a strong bullish trend, indicating further upward momentum. However, if the price fails to break the channel and reverses, it will remain confined within the current range, consolidating until a decisive breakout occurs in either direction. Dear Traders, if you find this analysis helpful or have your own insights, drop a comment below! I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
New Update on EURUSD 1H TIME FRAMEThis chart of EUR/USD on the 1-hour timeframe highlights the following: 1. Resistance Zone (1.0460–1.0470): The price is testing a resistance level (marked with the red line). Historically, this zone has prevented further upward movement, and there is a possibility of rejection unless there’s strong bullish momentum. 2. Support Zone (1.0380–1.0400): The green box below indicates a strong support level. If the price reverses, this is likely the area it might test again. 3. Possible Breakout Scenario: The blue arrow suggests a potential breakout above the resistance level. If this occurs, the price may begin a bullish trend targeting higher levels. 4. Supertrend Indicator: The chart shows the supertrend currently in an uptrend. If the price holds above the supertrend line, the bullish bias remains intact. However, a reversal could shift it into a downtrend. My Ideas: Bullish Case: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the resistance level (with strong candle closes above 1.0470) before entering a long position. Target areas could be 1.0500 or higher. Bearish Case: If the price gets rejected at resistance, consider entering a short position targeting the support zone around 1.0400. Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders to protect against false breakouts or rapid reversals. Keep SL tight, either below the support or resistance, depending on your trade direction.
by mrsagarfx
EURUSD 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 - Weekly Analysis -EU ZEW - US FOMC/PMIThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the WeekRelated PostsLatest Weekly Analysis Market Sentiment Inflation Data Mix U.S. CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, signaling lingering inflation pressures. However, softer underlying PPI components linked to the Fed’s preferred PCE metric raised hopes for a moderation in inflation next week. Fed Policy Expectations Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, despite the Fed’s current "wait-and-see" stance. A softer PCE report next week could solidify bets on easing monetary policy, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Trump’s Tariff Strategy Markets dismissed Trump’s reciprocal tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a prelude to a trade war. Investors expect delays in implementation, reducing immediate fears of economic disruption. Geopolitical Optimism Progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swap discussions) eased global risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Reduced geopolitical tensions benefit the Eurozone economy, indirectly lifting the Euro. Central Bank Divergence The ECB may cut rates further in 2025, but improving Eurozone data and reduced trade-war risks provide short-term EUR support. The Fed’s cautious tone limits USD upside, creating a balanced tug-of-war. Short-Term Bias Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. This balance of factors suggests choppy but upward-leaning trading for EUR/USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week. 🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase. 🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure. 🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback. 🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price could pullback to the recent Daily Demand before continuing Bullish. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
UPDATE ON EUR/USD TRADEEUR/USD 15M - As you can see price is playing out well. It came to trade into the OB we had marked out earlier post fundamental news, cleared the orders and is now trading us lower. You can see that price doing that has set a new Lower High within this new bearish structure, I would like to say that the high set there will now be protected and we should see a continuation in bearish structure moving forward. This trade is running + 34 pips. (+ 3.4%) 3.4RR A big well done to all of you who managed to jump in on this trade, please make sure that you take partials throughout your position and you apply safety measures. If you have any questions with regards to the analysis or the trade itself drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
Short
by Lukegforex