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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD – Smart Money Trap Setup in PlayPair: EURUSD 🔹 Timeframe: 30 Min 🔹 Bias: Bearish (Short Setup Expected) 🔹 Current Price: 1.17358 --- 💡 Market Breakdown: The pair is approaching a premium zone (1.17381 – 1.17567) where smart money may induce liquidity grabs before a sharp sell-off. The structure shows a clear Break of Structure (BoS) followed by a Change of Character (Choch) confirming bearish intention. --- 📌 Key Zones: 🔵 Supply Zone: 1.17381 – 1.17567 🔺 Liquidity Sweep Zone (Fakeout Expected): 1.17400 – 1.17431 🔻 Target Zone 1: 1.17096 🔻 Target Zone 2: 1.16829 ❌ Invalidation Above: 1.1760 --- 🎯 Trade Plan: Wait for price to tap into the red supply zone (1.174xx), then look for bearish confirmation like a strong rejection or engulfing candle. Expect a fast drop after smart money traps buyers. --- 📌 Smart Money Concept Used: 🔹 Inducement → Entry → Expansion 🔹 BOS → CHoCH → Imbalance Fill --- 🧠 Remember: "Price doesn’t move randomly — it’s engineered by intent."
Short
by Greenfireforex
EUR/USD Bears Maintain Control as ECB Caution Weigh on EuroTechnical Analysis The EUR/USD 4-hour chart reflects ongoing bearish pressure after failing to sustain above the 1.17647 resistance zone, indicating sellers are currently dominating the market. The pair trades below the 20-period EMA (blue line), which is beginning to slope downwards, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Price action remains beneath the middle Bollinger Band, emphasizing seller control over the near-term price direction. Recent candlesticks show multiple rejections from the 1.17164 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), indicating strong resistance and failed attempts to push higher. The overall momentum suggests a potential continuation of the downward move unless bullish momentum returns decisively. Failure to hold the support near 1.16865 would expose the pair to deeper declines targeting the Fibonacci extension zones between 1.16650 and 1.16380 and possibly lower. Alternative Scenario: Conversely, a break and sustained close above 1.17164 (61.8% retracement) could trigger a short-term rebound, potentially challenging the 1.17647 resistance level. Fundamental Outlook ECB officials' speeches today will reinforce the cautious policy stance, maintaining rates steady amid external uncertainties. US crude oil inventory reports and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast will be key in assessing inflationary pressures and economic growth. The FOMC meeting minutes release will be critical for signaling the Fed's future monetary policy intentions, which remain a key driver for the dollar’s strength.
Short
by Errante
EURUSD is moving within the 1.16850 -1.18310 range👀 Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) dropped 0.6% on July 7 amid rising trade tensions and fading hopes for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment turned cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting 14 countries without trade deals, raising concerns over global trade disruption. Major exporters like Japan and South Korea could face 25% tariffs if deals aren’t reached, while nations aligning with BRICS risk an extra 10% duty. With a quiet economic calendar on July 8, market volatility may ease, though investors remain alert to any trade policy shifts that could spark renewed market reaction. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.16850 Resistance level is located at 1.18310
by MaxOnMarkets
What Are Bollinger Bands? How to use it.✅ What Are Bollinger Bands? Bollinger Bands are a volatility-based technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger. They consist of three lines: 1. Middle Band: 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) 2. Upper Band: Middle Band + 2 standard deviations 3. Lower Band: Middle Band - 2 standard deviations The bands expand and contract based on price volatility. 📊 What Bollinger Bands Tell You Contraction (Squeeze): Low volatility, possible breakout coming Expansion: High volatility, breakout in progress or exhausted Price Touches Band: Doesn’t mean reversal—it's a sign of strength or weakness 🎯 Mastering Strategies with Bollinger Bands 1. Bollinger Band Squeeze (Breakout Strategy) Setup: Bands are very close together (low volatility) Signal: Wait for breakout and volume spike Action: Enter in direction of breakout Tip: Combine with MACD or RSI for confirmation > 🔍 Example: If the price breaks above the upper band with strong volume after a squeeze → potential long entry. 2. Mean Reversion (Reversal Strategy) Setup: Price touches or exceeds upper/lower band Signal: Look for RSI divergence, candlestick reversal patterns Action: Fade the move back to the 20 SMA (mean reversion) Tip: Works best in ranging markets > ⚠️ Warning: Don’t short just because price touches the upper band. Look for confluence. 3. Trend Riding with Bands Setup: Price rides upper/lower band Signal: Pullbacks to the 20 SMA in a strong trend Action: Enter on bounce near SMA if the trend is strong Tip: Use higher timeframes to confirm the trend > 🟢 In an uptrend, buy near the 20 SMA when price pulls back but doesn’t break lower band. 📌 Key Tips for Mastery 1. Adjust settings for asset/timeframe (e.g., crypto might need a 10 or 14 SMA) 2. Never use Bollinger Bands alone – combine with: RSI (for overbought/oversold confirmation) MACD (trend confirmation) Volume (for breakout confirmation) 3. Use multiple timeframes – e.g., 4H for trend, 15m for entry 4. Avoid chasing band breakouts without confirmation 5. Backtest strategies with your preferred asset 🧠 Advanced Concepts Double Bottoms Outside Band: When price forms a W-bottom with the second low outside the lower band bullish reversal setup. Walking the Band: In strong trends, price can "walk" along the band don’t fade too early. Band Width: Track the width of bands to detect upcoming breakouts. ⚠️ Disclaimer This guide is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
by Peter_Wade
Short for the next swing low.Is EURO bull run gonna end? ECB vs Fed Policy Paths Federal Reserve officials are divided but generally more cautious about cutting rates soon. In mid-June the Fed held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% and forecast only two 25bp cuts in 2025 Chair Powell warned of “meaningful” inflation coming from U.S. tariffs implying cuts may be delayed. Indeed, Fed Governor Bowman recently said she would support a rate cut “as soon as” the July meeting if inflation remains contained highlighting internal debate. In contrast, the ECB has already started lowering rates. After its June 5 decision to cut 25bp to 2.0%, Goldman Sachs analysts see two more ECB cuts (bringing deposit rates toward ~1.5% by year-end) As one strategist noted, “market pricing now shows a big gap between ECB and Fed rate cut expectations…Fed remains hamstrung by inflation,” keeping U.S. yields relatively high a stickier Fed (fewer cuts) versus a more dovish ECB (more cuts) would favor USD strength and EUR weakness. Geopolitical and Eurozone Risks Europe’s two largest economies face looming elections and weak coalitions. Fitch Solutions notes “Germany is set to hold early elections in February 2025” complicated by far-right gains, while France “is currently being governed by a weak coalition” with rising debt risks Such instability can undermine confidence in the euro. Slow growth: Eurozone growth is sluggish. After a 0.2% contraction in Germany, Fitch warns that “Germany and Italy weighing on aggregate growth forecasts” in 2025 Anemic output makes the euro vulnerable, especially if the U.S. economy outperforms. Labor market tightening: Euro-area unemployment is low (~6.3%), but conditions are “unjustifiably tight” given the weak economy Any economic slowdown could quickly raise Eurozone joblessness, pressuring the euro. Trade/tariff risks: A return to U.S. protectionism (e.g. renewed tariffs) could hit European exporters. Trump presidency could strain EU–US relations and dent demand for Eurozone exports Even talk of fresh tariffs tends to boost the safe-haven dollar over the euro.
Short
by Profit_zone
EURO - After movement up, price will drop to support lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it some time traded below the support area and soon bounced up. Price broke $1.1455 level and rose to the resistance line of the channel, after which it turned around and made correction movement. Next, price some time traded near $1.1455 level and then bounced and continued to move up inside the channel. In a short time Euro rose to $1.1700 level, which coincided with a support area, and some time trades between this level. Then the price broke this level and continued to move up, until it almost reached the resistance line of the channel and started to fall. Now, I think the Euro can rise a little and then continue to fall to $1.1610 support line of the channel, breaking $1.1700 level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by WalterMoon
14
EU| - Bullish Structure Intact | Watching for SSL Sweep and RunPair: EURUSD Bias: Bullish Timeframes: 4H, 2H, LTFs • 4H structure is clean and bullish — momentum’s been steady, and the market looks ready to ride higher going into next week. • 2H gives clarity — I’m watching for a sweep of SSL into OB to set the stage for LTF confirmation. • Entry process remains the same: wait for CHoCH, followed by sweep inside the OB zone. 🔹 Entry: After CHoCH + sweep inside OB (LTF process repeated) 🔹 Entry Zone: After confirmation within OB 🔹 Target: Structure highs — letting price unfold with the trend Mindset: Patience pays the most. Wait for the market to come to you, not the other way around. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1765 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1807 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.1712 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support that is slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 1.1768 1st Support: 1.1700 1st Resistance: 1.1816 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
EURUSD - Macro Trend Shift Soon?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈From a macro perspective, EURUSD has been bearish trading within the falling red channel. Medium-term, EURUSD has been in a correction phase trading within the rising channel in orange. Moreover, the green zone is a massive monthly resistance. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red and orange trendlines and resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
13
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18466.Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement continues. The five-wave impulse is not over yet, and I see that the price is now in the upward wave “3” of the higher order and in the upward wave “3” of the lower order. Therefore, I expect a small correction to the 1.16165 area, after which I expect the price to reach at least the 1.18466 resistance area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
17
Euro will make correction to support line of channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. In this chart, we can see how the price entered to triangle, where it at once bounced from the support line and rose to the 1.1100 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. Soon, price broke this level, after a small correction, and continued to move up to the 1.1575 current support level, which coincided with the support area. This area also coincided with the resistance line of the triangle, and the Euro rebounded from this line and started to decline. In a short time, it declined to the buyer zone, where it turned around and started to move up. Soon, Euro exited from triangle and continued to rise inside an upward channel, where it made a correction first and then continued to grow. Later, EUR rose to 1.1575 current support level, one more time and even almost broke it, but failed and corrected. But soon, it finally broke this level and rose to the resistance line of the channel, where at the moment it continues to trade near. In my mind, Euro will rebound from this line and go to the correction until to support line of the channel, breaking the support level. For this case, my TP is located near this line - at the 1.1490 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by LegionQ8
10
Bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1742 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1698 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1814 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
EUR/USD Weekly – Two Long Setups Hello guys! It is my perspective on eurusd! Before we even reach the major resistance zone around 1.2050–1.2100, I’ve highlighted two long-term opportunities that may unfold as the price continues to climb. ✔ First Long Position: It looks like a more conservative entry. The price is already above it. You can set a pending position! It was likely aiming to catch the momentum as the price broke above the previous structure. TP is near the descending trendline, around 1.2050–1.2100. a smart place to exit before major resistance hits. ✔ Second Long Position: Positioned slightly lower. probably in case of a pullback or retest into the broken zone. This one offers better risk-reward, but requires patience and a cleaner retracement. Both longs are short-to mid-term swing ideas, aiming to ride the bullish leg into the bigger trendline rejection zone, where I’d personally be more cautious or even look for reversal setups.
Long
by melikatrader94
6
EUR/USD: A Perfect Storm for BullsThis is a high-conviction long setup based on a powerful combination of macroeconomic divergence and a confirmed multi-year technical breakout. The Non-Farm Payrolls report has now been released, and the resulting price dip has created what I believe is an ideal entry opportunity to align with the dominant bullish trend. The Fundamental Why 📰 NFP Aftermath: Yesterday's NFP report was a mixed bag that ultimately reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts. The headline number beat expectations, causing an initial USD rally and a dip in EUR/USD. However, the underlying details like wage growth were soft. Crucially, the market continues to price in a 96% probability of a Fed rate cut by September, a figure that was unchanged by the data. The core driver of USD weakness—a dovish Fed—remains firmly intact. Resilient EUR 🇪🇺: In contrast, the ECB has signaled it is at or near the end of its easing cycle. Economic data from core Eurozone countries is stabilizing, providing the Euro with relative strength. Risk-On Sentiment 💹: The broader market remains in a "risk-on" mood, which is typically negative for the safe-haven USD. Gold is soaring and equities are near all-time highs, confirming the anti-dollar flow. The Technical Picture 📊 The Secular Breakout 🚀: The most significant event is the breakout of a decade-long downtrend resistance line. This is a major structural shift. The pair has also achieved a monthly and quarterly close above the critical 1.1500 handle, turning a historic resistance level into a new support floor. The Impulsive Uptrend 🌊: On the 4-hour chart, the price is in a clear ascending channel. The post-NFP dip represents a healthy correction within this uptrend, bringing price back toward key support. Key Levels 🔑: Support Zone: The dip has brought price directly into the key support confluence between 1.1700 and 1.1760, making this an ideal area to enter long. Resistance Zone: Major resistance still sits at 1.1900, making it a prudent take-profit target. Strategy & Risk Management 🧠 The stronger-than-expected NFP headline has provided the exact pullback this strategy was designed for. The dip presents a prime opportunity to buy into the dominant uptrend at a more favorable price. Instead of chasing the market, we are now positioned to enter on a technically sound correction. Good luck, and trade safe! Trade Parameters ✅ Pair: EUR/USD Direction: Long / Buy 🟢 Entry Type: Limit Order Entry Price: 1.1745 Stop-Loss: 1.1685 (60 pips) 🔴 Take-Profit: 1.1895 (150 pips) 🎯 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.5 : 1
Long
by MaxellAguiran
1