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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.177. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.172 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, and welcome! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - U.S. President Trump commented on the mutual tariff suspension deadline of July 9, saying, “We can do whatever we want. We could extend it, or shorten it,” leaving the door open for an extension. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that trade negotiations could be finalized by September 1, adding that agreements were nearing completion with more than 10 of the 18 major trading partners. - President Trump noted that Canada is preparing to implement a digital tax, saying, “We will halt all trade discussions with Canada and within the next seven days inform them of the tariffs they must pay to operate in the U.S.” - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May met expectations at 2.3% year-over-year, while the Core PCE Price Index slightly exceeded expectations at 2.7% year-over-year. Key Economic Events This Week + June 30: U.K. Q1 GDP + July 1: Eurozone June CPI, Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) + July 2: U.S. June ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + July 3: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. June Unemployment Rate EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair is showing a steep upward trend after breaking through a previous resistance level. Further upside potential appears to remain, with the next projected target area around the 1.18500–1.19000 range. However, there is currently a resistance zone in place, making it highly likely that a short-term dip may occur before the upward trend resumes.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Prediction for EUR/USD Sell Setup (Short from 1.1825–1.1830) Why? • Price recently broke down from an ascending channel (seen on your TradingView screenshot). • Confirmed lower high structure (bearish). • Rejection from previous resistance near 1.1830 is likely. • Fibonacci retracement shows 1.1830 aligns with key 78.6% reversal zone. • DXY (USD Index) strength supports EUR/USD downside pressure. • Clean downside liquidity resting near 1.1700 and possibly 1.1630. ⚠️ Buy Setup (Long from 1.1745–1.1750) • Confidence: ⚪ 78% • Why Lower? • Although 1.1745 is solid support, it is being retested too frequently. • Momentum is weakening. • If price stalls and fails to bounce strongly off 1.1750, it risks collapsing to 1.1700 or lower. • MACD/Volume divergence showing early bearish bias on M15/M30 timeframes. ⸻ 🧠 Verdict: • Short trade from 1.1825–1.1830 has higher probability based on current structure and momentum. • This would be a sell-the-retest opportunity of the broken ascending channel. • Hold to TP1 = 1.1745, and TP2 = 1.1700, with clean smart trail logic activated after TP1. Then wait for reversal triggers and initiate sell long setup
Short
by leancarti47
1
EURUSD – A Potentially Busy Day Ahead For TradersThis morning, EURUSD recorded a near 4 year high at 1.1807, the beneficiary of improving risk sentiment, uncertainty about the ECB’s next interest rate move, and concerns about what President Trump’s tax cut bill, that is progressing through the Senate currently, could mean for the sustainability of the US debt burden moving forward. Now, with the FX quarter end rebalancing completed yesterday, it is possible to look forward to the upcoming scheduled events for today that could influence where EURUSD moves next. First up, at 1000 BST this morning, traders receive the latest preliminary inflation (HICP) update for the Eurozone. The outcome of this release could provide further insight into whether the current market expectation for one more ECB rate cut in 2025 is possible, or if they may be on hold for the foreseeable future. Next up, starting at 1430 BST is a panel discussion attended by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chairman Powell, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda at the ECB’s Central Bank Forum in Portugal. The topic, “adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. The comments of these central bank heads on inflation, interest rates, tariffs and economic growth could be important for the direction of all the major G7 FX pairs. Then, at 1500 BST the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey is due for release. While US manufacturing activity is still expected to languish in contraction territory, below 50, traders will be focused on whether there has been any improvement in the headline print, and what the prices paid component could indicate for the direction of US inflation across the remainder of 2025. These events, when taken with real time updates from President Trump and members of this administration on his tax bill, trade deals and flexibility of the July 9th tariff deadline, sets today up as a potentially volatile period for EURUSD trading. Technical Update: Assessing the Recent Trend From a technical perspective, a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains in the EURUSD price and as the chart below shows, Tuesday has seen another new recovery high posted at 1.1807. While much will continue to depend on market sentiment and price trends, it might be argued that the posting of this new price high for the current upside move, suggests a further phase of strength is still possible. However, what are the levels traders may now be watching to gauge where the next directional price risks might lay over coming sessions? Potential Support Levels: Since posting the June 19th session low at 1.1446, EURUSD has rallied by over 3.00% (1.1446 to 1.1807) and while this doesn’t mean price weakness is necessarily on the cards, traders might become concerned a price correction is due after such a strong advance. As the chart above shows, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest price strength, currently stands at 1.1668. This can mark a potential first support focus, after the recent move higher. Closing breaks under 1.1668, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may then lead to a deeper phase of weakness towards 1.1583, which is equal to the 61.8% retracement level. Potential Resistance Levels: As a result of latest strength, EURUSD has traded to levels last seen in mid-September 2021 and to gauge the next potential resistance levels, we switch to the longer term weekly chart shown below. If further price strength still emerges from current levels, traders may now be focused on 1.1909, the August 2021 failure high, as the next possible resistance level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )————- ➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸 Bullish Wave Coming From : 1.18050 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello friends! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my view on EUR-USD with you. Looking at the EUR-USD chart, I see two potential scenarios ahead: 🔹 Scenario 1 – Bearish: If EUR-USD breaks below 1.16836 on the 15-minute time frame, I expect a downward move toward the 1.16319 to 1.15850 area. 🔹 Scenario 2 – Bullish then Bearish: If the price rises from the current level, I expect an initial move up toward 1.17937, followed by a decline back toward the 1.16319 to 1.15850 zone. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: 📌 Support: 1.16836 / 1.16319 / 1.15850 📌 Resistance: 1.17937 💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD? Let me know in the comments below. Trade safe
Short
by PouyanTradeFX
1
#AN014: Ursula von der Leyen No Confidence Motion, Market Crisis Hello, I am Andrea Russo, a Forex trader and today I want to focus on an explosive news that has hit Brussels in the last 24 hours: the motion of no confidence against the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in carrying out this analysis. The fact: Motion of No Confidence in the European Parliament On July 1st, several MEPs from both conservative right and far left groups formally presented a motion of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen, accusing her of: Non-transparent agreements with Emmanuel Macron, Opaque management of the new “Pact for Europe”, Conditioning of key appointments within the Commission and the Council and above all the violation of the democratic principle of balance of powers. Although the motion does not seem to have the numbers to pass, it represents a direct attack on the political legitimacy of the outgoing president, just when she is trying to obtain a second term. The suspicion is that this move is not so much to bring down von der Leyen, but to: Weaken her negotiating position, Force her to make political concessions and reopen the game on the strategic EU appointments 2024–2029. This internal crisis comes at the worst possible time. A crisis of internal legitimacy in this context can undermine institutional stability and slow down all the economic reforms expected by the markets. Impact on Forex 1. EUR under pressure European political risk is back in the spotlight. Even if there was no immediate shock to the euro, institutional trading rooms are already pricing in more internal instability. This translates into: Downward pressure on EUR/USD, especially if the motion receives more votes than expected (even if it does not pass). EUR/CHF at risk of retracement, as the Swiss franc is seen as a safe haven currency in the event of EU institutional crises. EUR/GBP with potential loss of strength, especially if London takes advantage of the crisis to relaunch bilateral agreements. 2. Push for safe haven currencies JPY, USD and CHF have shown anomalous movements in the last few hours: political uncertainty is pushing traders to seek safe havens. The EUR/USD futures curve also shows a slight downward revaluation. 3. Upcoming events to monitor The real threat will be if the number of votes in favor of the no-confidence motion exceeds 30–35% of Parliament → in that case, even if the motion does not pass, von der Leyen will be delegitimized. The euro, in this case, could undergo a technical correction extended up to 1.0650, especially if accompanied by weak macro data. Follow me, if you like, for other updates.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
EUR/USD - Bullish Bias with Key S/R Level | TCB StrategyEUR/USD - Bullish Bias with Key Support and Resistance Levels | TCB Strategy Trend: The overall trend is bullish, with EUR/USD respecting an ascending channel. The market remains in a clear uptrend on higher timeframes, favoring long positions unless resistance is broken. Key Levels: Support: 1.1750–1.1770 (bullish bias if price holds here). Resistance: 1.1800–1.1820 (possible short if price fails to break). Action Plan: Long Setup: Look for a bullish reversal pattern near 1.1750–1.1770 (solid support). Targets: 1.1800–1.1820. Short Setup: If the price fails to break 1.1800–1.1820 and shows a rejection, consider a countertrend short targeting 1.1750. Breakout Setup: If 1.1820 is broken with momentum, look for a retest and continuation towards 1.1850–1.1900. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Below 1.1750 for long trades, above 1.1820 for short trades. Risk/Reward: Favorable 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio based on your setup. TCB Checklist Score: 83% Trend Setup: 10/10 Countertrend Setup: 7/10 Breakout Setup: 6/10 Risk Management: 9/10 Target Setting: 8/10 External Factors: 10/10 Overall Score: 50/60 = 83% Fundamental Backing for EUR/USD Bullish Bias: ECB vs. Fed Divergence: The Fed’s hawkish policy may be nearing its peak, while the ECB continues to tighten to combat inflation, favoring the euro over the USD. As the ECB remains more aggressive than the Fed, this could keep EUR/USD supported. U.S. Economic Data: If U.S. economic data continues to underperform (e.g., weaker GDP, jobless claims, or inflation reports), it would put downward pressure on the USD, supporting a bullish EUR/USD outlook. Eurozone Economic Resilience: The Eurozone has shown solid economic growth despite global challenges, with nations like Germany and France demonstrating resilience. This strengthens the EUR against a potentially weaker USD. Geopolitical Factors: While the Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing, the EU’s resilience to the energy crisis and the gradual improvement in global risk sentiment could support the euro in the medium-term. Global Risk Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment could benefit higher-yielding assets like the euro, especially against a USD that could face weakening pressures from an economic slowdown. This setup is solid but requires further confirmation. The bullish trend supports a long bias, but be alert to potential rejections at resistance or breakouts that could push EUR/USD higher. #EURUSD #TCBStrategy #ForexTrading #Breakout #TrendFollowing #Countertrend #TradingView #ForexAnalysis #RiskManagement #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSetup #BullishBias #ForexTraders
Long
by J1000PIPSfx
EUR/USD – Consolidation and Uptrend Channel Analysis!Price is holding inside a well-defined uptrend channel on the 1-hour timeframe. The trend remains bullish as long as price respects the channel structure. Currently, we see consolidation near the upper zone, showing market indecision. A breakout above consolidation will confirm bullish continuation. If this happens, buyers can look for momentum entries to the upside. However, if price breaks down below channel support and consolidates under it, the bias will shift to bearish and open the way for deeper corrections. Target in case of breakdown: 1.1400 – strong support and liquidity area. Trading Plan: Stay bullish while price is inside the channel. Only turn bearish on a clean break and retest below the channel. Avoid trading inside the middle of consolidation to reduce false signals. Patience and confirmation are essential before taking any positions.
Short
by JosProfessionalTrader
EURUSD M15 I Bearish Fall Based on the M15 chart, the price is testing our sell entry level at1.1798, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 1.17780 an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement. The stop loss is set at 1.1821, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu