USDEUX trade ideas
Bearish reversal off 161.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resitance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci rretracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1786
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.1828
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 1.1691
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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#EURUSD - Pivot Point is 1.174Date: 22-07-2025
#EURUSD - Current Price: 1.175
Pivot Point: 1.174 Support: 1.162 Resistance: 1.185
Upside Targets:
Target 1: 1.190
Target 2: 1.195
Target 3: 1.203
Target 4: 1.211
Downside Targets:
Target 1: 1.157
Target 2: 1.152
Target 3: 1.144
Target 4: 1.136
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EURUSD - Short Term Setup Could Trigger MAJOR ReversalThis bounce is likely to be a connective wave into another wave down.
In the video I break down a classic algo driven liquidity sweep just above the 0.786 retracement.
This signals potential reversal.
Stop loss placement depends on how aggressive you want to be with margin.
Tighter risk gives more upside potential with defined exposure.
Invalidation of potential retracement failure swing @ $1.18.
If this unfolds on a higher timeframe, it could develop into a heavy-hitting move.
I'm layering shorts through this area, as discussed in the video.
Trade executed on Pepperstone CFD 👍.
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
EUR/USD | Bullish Momentum Builds – Next Targets Ahead! (READ)By analyzing the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, as per the previous analysis, the price first made a strong move in two steps, successfully hitting the 1.15580 target. Upon reaching this key level, it reacted positively with increased demand and is now trading around 1.16520. Given the current trend, I expect further bullish movement soon, with the next potential targets at 1.16720, 1.17230, and 1.17500.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EURUSD NEW IDEASee the chart above, were on decling its momentum, I believe more trap longs this move.
SEE it in 2 days how things works. targets see charts.
I don't really explain to gain more tractions on how trading works.
I am here to understand the movement. Don't complicate too much, If you're a swing trader, take it a leap and have patience. stick to your own proper stoploss.
Trade it or leave it.
Goodluck folks.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1693
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1619
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1806
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD - Parallel channel in play!The following chart offers a closer look at the current structure of the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe. Price action has been respecting a well-defined bearish parallel channel, which has provided clear boundaries for both resistance and support. Based on the ongoing reaction to these levels, we outline both bullish and bearish scenarios that could unfold in the coming sessions.
Bearish Parallel Channel
Since June 30, EUR/USD has been consistently moving within a downward-sloping bearish parallel channel. Each attempt to break above the upper boundary of the channel has been rejected, while the lower boundary continues to act as dynamic support. This sustained rejection from the upper trendline confirms the strength of the bearish momentum currently at play. The pair remains structurally weak unless a clean breakout to the upside occurs, accompanied by strong bullish confirmation.
Bullish Scenario
A potential bullish reversal could materialize if EUR/USD manages to hold above the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located between 1.1620 and 1.1600. This zone may provide the necessary support for the bulls to step in. If the price maintains strength within or just above this FVG and buyers begin to show dominance, a rebound toward the upper boundary of the channel could occur. A successful breakout above the channel could then trigger a stronger rally, possibly targeting the 1.1750–1.1800 region, marking a clear shift in short-term momentum.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, if the pair fails to hold the 4-hour FVG between 1.1620 and 1.1600 and closes a strong bearish 4-hour candle below this zone, the market may be setting up for further downside. This would suggest a rejection of the FVG as resistance and open the path for a drop toward the lower end of the channel. Interestingly, this area also aligns with a previously established larger 4-hour FVG. A move into this deeper FVG could present a more favorable zone for a longer-term bullish reversal, as it offers a stronger liquidity pool and potential demand area.
Final Thoughts
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture. Price is hovering near a key support zone within a bearish channel that has defined its movement for several weeks. Whether bulls can hold this support and break above the channel, or bears take control and push it lower toward the broader 4-hour FVG, will determine the next major directional move. Traders should closely monitor price action around the 1.1620–1.1600 level for clues on the likely breakout direction.
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Bullish momentum to extend?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 127.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 1.1746
1st Support: 1.1659
1st Resistance: 1.1907
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD | 4H Chart | New York Session Sellers in Play 📉 EURUSD | 4H Chart | New York Session Sellers in Play 🇺🇸
🟥 Red Zone Rejection – clarity
As the New York session unfolds, sellers are stepping in at a premium supply zone — classic reaction near 1.1763–1.1812.
🔻 Current Structure:
Rising wedge formation tapped into prior supply zone
Price kissed the upper wedge and reacted — sellers triggering from the red zone
NY session = high liquidity = aggressive positioning by institutions
🎯 Potential Bearish Targets:
1️⃣ 1.1712 – Minor structure support
2️⃣ 1.1670 – Trendline + liquidity sweep
3️⃣ 1.1582 – Major bullish invalidation (optional swing target)
🧠 Smart Money Note:
This is where liquidity is grabbed before reversal
Risk-to-reward favors downside short-term as long as price stays below 1.1812
📌 Bias: Tactical Short
🎯 Reaction + Rejection = Execution
🎩
EURUSD analysis - 1H FVG and OB setupsOn the 1H timeframe, price is moving strongly towards the 1H supply zone (around 1.1780), and it is likely to reach this area first before pulling back.
During the pullback, the blue FVG and green OB zones below are key areas for potential long entries:
🔹 FVG 1H around 1.1660
🔹 OB 1H around 1.1620
🔹 OB 1H around 1.1580
📌 Plan:
1️⃣ If the price reaches the upper supply zone, we will look for short scalps with confirmation on the lower timeframe (5M/3M).
2️⃣ After the pullback to lower zones, we will look for long opportunities with PA confirmation.
🎯 Long targets after pullback: 1.1700 – 1.1720, potentially 1.1750.
❌ No entry without confirmation.
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Update –Classic Wave 5 Breakout OpportunityThis chart of the EUR/USD pair shows a well-structured Elliott Wave impulse pattern unfolding on the 4-hour timeframe. The price action is currently progressing in the final Wave (5) of the impulse cycle, which typically represents the last bullish leg before a larger correction begins.
Wave (1): The initial move up from the bottom (early May), showing a clean 5-wave internal structure.
Wave (2): A healthy retracement after Wave 1, forming a base for further upside.
Wave (3): The strongest and steepest rally, as expected in Elliott theory. It broke past previous highs and extended sharply.
Wave (4): A corrective phase that formed a falling wedge pattern — typically a bullish continuation pattern.
Wave (5): Currently in progress. The wedge has broken to the upside, confirming the potential start of Wave 5.
Target 1 (T1): 1.18306
Target 2 (T2): 1.19012
Stop Loss (SL): 1.16600
After a strong uptrend, the market went sideways in a wedge pattern (a typical wave 4 behavior). It has now broken out, signaling the start of the final wave 5 move. This is often a strong and sharp push. Since the breakout is clean and the Elliott wave count aligns well, this creates a favorable long opportunity
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1660
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1593
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1813
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short Term Market Reversal IncomingRetail’s still buying breakouts, but the music just stopped.
This was the rally they weren’t supposed to catch.
Now it’s time to flip the script and bleed it back to origin.
Trading is a very difficult profession. Most people fail, but it's also not impossible. If you don't trade you're a loser.
It's a zero-sum game. 0 1
Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competing entities, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other.
It's all just digits on a screen and if they want your money they'll take your money, so you gotta respect your risk management if you don't want to lose everything or you'll have to break the matrix by seeing into the future,
Once you get to see the future. THERE IS NO TURNING BACK.
If you're reading this I hope you're having a great year. This year is all about endings and new beginnings. So stay locked in.
WAGMI
Oh yeah don't forget I gave you guys FX_IDC:EURUSD at 1.03 and FX_IDC:XAGUSD at $22
Nerds
EUR/USD About to Trap the Bears? Final Push Before the Drop! EUR/USD is showing a solid short-term bullish structure, with a move initiated from the demand base around 1.1560, fueling a strong rally toward the current level near 1.1770. Price is now approaching a significant supply zone between 1.1790 and 1.1875, previously responsible for the last major bearish swing. This area also aligns with projected Fibonacci levels (25%-100%), reinforcing its relevance as a possible inflection point.
This movement suggests there’s still room for price to push higher, likely completing the final leg of this bullish cycle before a more convincing short setup develops. At this stage, Fibonacci levels are not acting as firm supports, but rather as hypothetical pullback projections: once price enters the 1.1800–1.1875 area, it will be key to monitor for signs of exhaustion. A rejection here may initiate a bearish retracement toward 1.1670–1.1650, in line with the 62–70.5% fib levels.
Retail sentiment remains highly contrarian: 76% of traders are short, positioning themselves too early against the trend. This imbalance adds fuel for a potential continuation higher, as the market may seek to "squeeze" these premature shorts. Additionally, the COT report confirms growing institutional interest in the euro, with non-commercials increasing their net longs, while USD net long exposure continues to shrink.
Seasonality adds further confluence: late July is historically bullish for EUR/USD, suggesting one final leg up could materialize before a typically weaker August.
✅ Trading Outlook
EUR/USD is technically aligned for a final push toward the 1.1800–1.1875 premium zone, where a potential short opportunity may arise. The rally is currently driven by overextended retail shorts and supportive institutional flows. Only after price interacts with the upper supply zone should reversal signs be evaluated, with correction targets around 1.1670–1.1650. The ideal play: wait for confirmation of bearish intent in August, when seasonal weakness typically kicks in.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1812
1st Support: 1.1608
1st Resistance: 1.1903
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD Bearish Ahead as US Resilience Meets Eurozone FragilityEURUSD has shifted into bearish territory, pressured by growing divergence between a resilient US economy and a struggling Eurozone. The pair recently rejected the 1.1700 zone, forming multiple bearish structures on the 4H chart. With sticky US inflation, Trump’s renewed tariff agenda, and a dovish ECB, EUR/USD appears poised for a deeper move toward 1.1527 and possibly 1.1445 in the coming sessions. This setup is both technically and fundamentally aligned, but key event risk remains.
🔸 Technical Structure (4H)
Clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1710 zone.
Bearish pennants and wedge patterns confirm continuation lower.
Downside targets:
🔹 First: 1.1637
🔹 Second: 1.1527
🔹 Final: 1.1445
Risk zone: Above 1.1785 (invalidates short bias if broken cleanly).
🧭 Key Fundamentals
🇺🇸 Dollar Strength: Sticky inflation, stable labor market, and geopolitical risk all favor USD demand.
🇪🇺 Euro Weakness: ECB dovish tone persists amid weak data, soft PMIs, and stagnating growth.
Yield Spread: US-Euro real yield spread supports further EUR/USD downside.
Tariff Pressure: Trump’s 50% tariff plan and tensions with the EU weigh on EUR.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
A surprise dovish pivot from the Fed.
Weak US CPI or disappointing retail sales.
Major risk-on flows that trigger broad USD weakness.
New EU fiscal stimulus or Germany/France recovery surprises.
📆 Key Events Ahead
🇺🇸 US Core CPI – A hot print supports USD strength.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales & Powell testimony – Watch tone on rate cuts.
🇪🇺 German ZEW Sentiment, Eurozone HICP inflation – Weak readings would further drag EUR.
🔄 Leader or Lagger?
EUR/USD is a lagger to GBP/USD, often following UK-driven USD moves.
Acts as a leader for EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF – weakness here cascades across EUR crosses.
Tracks broad USD sentiment – dovish Fed pricing boosts EURUSD, while rate hike fears drag it.
✅ Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EUR/USD is bearish below 1.1700 as economic divergence, sticky US inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions favor the dollar. ECB policy remains soft, offering little support to the euro. Key risk lies in a dovish Fed pivot or softer US data. Watch US CPI and Powell for clues. This pair is likely to lag GBP/USD moves, but will lead EUR crosses lower if the downside momentum continues.