EURUSD: Short Signal Explained
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.1775
Stop Loss - 1.1822
Take Profit - 1.1670
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USDEUX trade ideas
Master Your Edge: It’s Not About Just Being Right
Most traders obsess over being right on every trade. But the truth is, consistent profitability doesn’t come from perfect predictions—it comes from disciplined risk management.
Mark Douglas reminds us:
“Trading is not about being right or wrong. It’s about how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
Focus less on proving yourself right, and more on protecting your capital when you’re wrong. That’s how professionals thrive in uncertain markets.
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EUR/USD.4h chart pattern.EUR/USD 4H chart, I can see an ascending trendline with a breakout to the upside, suggesting bullish momentum. You’ve also marked a "TARGET" zone visually on the chart.
Estimated Target:
Based on standard breakout and trend continuation principles:
Current Price: Around 1.1598
Visual Target Zone (as per your chart): Near 1.1700
Potential Target Zone:
1.1700 - 1.1720 (Approximate zone for bullish continuation if breakout holds)
Notes:
✅ Strong bullish structure confirmed by higher highs and trendline support
✅ Breakout already in motion; as long as price stays above the trendline, bullish target remains valid
✅ Watch key support at 1.1535 - 1.1500; price falling below this weakens bullish outlook
Would you like Fibonacci or measured move targets calculated more precisely? Let me know!
EURUSD Major event Short Weekly ChartWe may be on the verge of a major event in the forex market.
The EUR/USD is approaching its 800-week moving average, a level that historically marks significant turning points.
A sharp reversal is likely, with an initial target at the 600-week moving average, and potentially a much deeper decline beyond that.
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Here’s the latest masterstroke based on our Thief Trading Style™—a tactical breakdown of EUR/USD primed for a bullish breakout robbery. We’re targeting the red zone 🎯—where the weak hands panic, and the real players win.
🔓 Entry Plan (Buy Setup):
🟢 "The vault is wide open!" — We’re planning bullish entries using 15m–30m timeframe swing levels.
✅ Buy Limit Orders: Plot them smartly around most recent swing lows/highs.
⚠️ Chart Alert Suggested: Eyes on the prize, don’t miss the break-in.
🛑 Risk Guard (SL Setup):
💼 Stop-Loss: Set at nearest 30-min swing low (based on your risk appetite).
Remember, it’s about preserving your loot, not just grabbing it.
🎯 Target Area:
🎯 Primary Target: 1.19000
🎯 Optional Trailing SL: Ride the wave, lock the profits as price moves.
🧲 Scalpers' Notice:
Only scalp long. Got big pockets? Jump in. Smaller bags? Swing along.
💡 Trailing stop advised—don’t let the market steal your gains.
💹 Current Market Outlook:
EUR/USD is moving bullish—supported by technical signals, macro news, COT insights, and intermarket vibes.
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(Keep updated, conditions shift fast!)
⚠️ News Risk Alert:
🚨 Stay alert during news drops—avoid fresh trades then.
Use trailing SLs to lock profits & guard against reversal raids.
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The Day Ahead Major Economic Data:
US:
ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook.
Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength.
Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check.
China:
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown.
Japan:
Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy.
Eurozone:
June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path.
Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators.
Central Bank Highlights:
ECB Sintra Forum Panel:
Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE).
Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks.
Other ECB Speakers:
Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves.
ECB Consumer Survey:
Offers insight into household inflation expectations.
Market View:
US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak.
Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance.
China’s PMI is a global growth signal.
Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook.
Overall:
Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI📉 EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI, and Bearish Momentum Ahead
Bias: Short / Sell Setup
EUR/USD recently surged toward the 1.0750 zone sooner than expected, driven more by market optimism and speculative flows than solid fundamentals.
Now, that optimism is starting to fade as data fails to back it up.
Meanwhile, the potential U.S. tax reform proposal (Trump) and signs of renewed trade negotiations are helping shift sentiment back toward the U.S. dollar in the coming 10 days.
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🇩🇪 German CPI – Neutral Print, But Bearish Implications
Today's regional inflation figures across German states were mixed:
States like Saxony and Baden-Württemberg showed slightly rising prices
Others like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia showed declining YoY inflation
Final national CPI due later today is unlikely to beat expectations meaningfully
🎯 Summary: A Neutral CPI Print
No upside surprise → No support for EUR
No major downside → No panic either
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🧠 Why "Neutral" Data Can Still Be Bearish for EUR
The market was hoping for a strong CPI to signal that ECB may pause rate cuts
Neutral inflation = ECB may still lean dovish
EUR rose on hope — but data offered no confirmation
In financial markets, failed expectations often trigger stronger corrections than bad news.
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🔍 Technical Overview:
Price approaching strong supply zone near 1.0740 – 1.0760
RSI showing divergence on lower timeframes (H1)
Structure on M15 suggests potential for lower highs
Price stalling under resistance, with no bullish momentum follow-through
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🎯 Trade Plan:
Bias: Short
Entry Zone: 1.0730 – 1.0755
Stop Loss: Above 1.0775
Take Profit 1: 1.0630
Take Profit 2: 1.0600
Trigger: Break of M15 bearish structure or supply reaction
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📌 Markets punish over-optimism more than fear.
EUR/USD may correct lower as hopes of a strong CPI fade and macro flows tilt toward the USD.
EURUSD: focus on jobs dataThe major macro data for this week, the PCE indicator, was posted on Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, Feds favorite inflation gauge, increased by 0,1% in May, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. The core PCE was a bit higher than anticipated, at the level of 0,2% for the month and 2,7% for the year. A bit surprising figures came from Personal Income in May, which dropped by -0,4%, while the Personal Spending was down by -0,1% in May. Analysts are noting that implemented trade tariffs are slowly beginning to reflect in the personal spending of the US citizens. Also, this sort of potential development was noted by the Fed during the last two FOMC meetings.
The rest of posted macro data for the US included the Existing Home Sales in May reached 4,03M, which was an increase of 0,8% on a monthly basis. This was significantly above the market estimate of -1,3%. The Durable Goods Orders in May were higher by 16,4%, surpassing the market estimate of 8,5%. The GDP Growth Rate final for Q1was standing in a negative territory of -0,5% for the quarter, and was higher from market expectation of -0,2%. The end of the week brought University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures final for June, which was standing at 60,7 and was in line with estimates. The Inflation Expectations were a bit higher from the previous estimate, ending the June with expected 5% inflation, while the market was expecting to see 5,1%.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany was standing at the level of 49, while the same index for the Euro Zone reached 49,4. Both indicators were in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in June reached 88,4, in line with market estimates. The GfK Consumer Confidence in July was at the level of -20,3, a bit higher from estimated -19,3.
The eurusd was traded with a bullish sentiment during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1460 and continued toward the upside for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level at 1,1741 was reached in Friday's trading session. The RSI reached the clear overbought market side as of the end of the week, at the level of 71. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near.
The market favored the euro during the last two weeks. It comes as a result of insecurity when it comes to potential negative impact of implemented trade tariffs, which are slowly revealing in the US economy. The week ahead brings more jobs data, including JOLTs, NFP and unemployment rate, which will shape the investors sentiment. Some increased volatility might be ahead. The resistance level at 1,17 has been clearly tested during the previous week, and it will mark the beginning of the week ahead. The RSI is pointing to a higher probability of a short term reversal in the coming period, which might occur in the week ahead, impacted, most probably, by jobs data. In case of a reversal, the level of 1,1620 might easily be the next target. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability of a further move above the 1,17 level, however, the market might spend some time here, before a decision to make further move.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Retail Sales in May in Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary in June for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in June in Germany,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in June, JOLTs Job Openings in May, Non-farm Payrolls in June, Unemployment rate in June, Average Hourly Earnings and Spending, ISM Services PMI in June
Another RR2 Position On EURUSDThesis: EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion near the 1.1800 psychological resistance, with price rejecting the upper band of a recent range.
Entry: 🔻 Sell at 1.17883 (current price action confirms rejection)
Stop-Loss: 🔺 1.17943 – Above recent swing high and psychological resistance
Take-Profit: ✅ 1.17767 – Targeting the lower bound of the recent range and prior support
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2 – High conviction setup with tight risk and extended downside potential
New rise in EURUSDYesterday, EURUSD continued its bullish movement, reaching 1,1807.
At current levels, all open buy positions should have their risk removed (e.g. stop loss at breakeven).
New buy entries are recommended only after a pullback with a favorable risk-reward setup.
Important news is expected later this week, which may lead to misleading price moves.
Reduce your risk and stay patient!
EUR/USD 15M CHART PATTERNHere’s a structured summary of your EUR/USD sell trade setup:
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📉 Trade Type: SELL
Entry Price: 1.17875
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🎯 Take Profit Levels:
1. TP1: 1.17700
2. TP2: 1.17450
3. TP3: 1.17090
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🛑 Stop Loss:
SL: 1.18315
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🧮 Risk/Reward Overview:
Target Distance (pips) Reward:Risk (approx)
TP1 17.5 ~0.37:1
TP2 42.5 ~0.9:1
TP3 78.5 ~1.8:1
SL 44 —
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Would you like help calculating lot size, risk percentage, or backtesting this setup?
EURUSD – Bearish Pressure IntensifiesEURUSD is currently facing rejection at the GAP resistance area near 1.17350, combined with a lower high structure forming within the ascending channel. Price action shows clear signs of weakness after filling the GAP, and the aligned FVG zones below suggest a potential for deeper downside.
If the price remains capped below 1.17350, there is a high probability of a pullback toward the 1.16300 support area — which aligns with the long-term ascending trendline. A break below this level could extend the bearish move toward the deeper region near 1.14500.
Supporting Fundamentals:
Strong US Core PCE → reinforces expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
Weak EU manufacturing PMI → puts pressure on the euro.
FOMC minutes and NFP — if hawkish — could strengthen the USD and weigh further on EURUSD.
EUR/USD – Potential Bearish Reversal AheadAnalysis Overview:
EUR/USD has shown a strong bullish structure recently, but price is currently near a key resistance zone around 1.1780, which may act as a reversal point. The chart also shows an extended wave structure, signaling possible exhaustion of buying pressure.
Bearish Setup Expectations:
If the price fails to break above 1.1780 convincingly and shows bearish confirmation (e.g. a strong bearish engulfing candle or RSI divergence), we may see a reversal toward lower support levels.
Key Support Levels (Targets):
TP1: 1.14465
TP2: 1.13329
TP3: 1.12064
TP4: 1.10000
Possible Entry: Near 1.1770 – 1.1785 (on bearish confirmation)
Stop Loss: Above 1.1810 (structure invalidation)
Technical Confluences:
Potential Double Top or Rising Wedge pattern
Price at historical resistance
Overbought RSI zones may support the reversal
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📌 Note: Always wait for confirmation before entering. Use proper risk management and follow your trading plan strictly.
EUR/USD Breakout Eyes 1.18 as Bullish Momentum BuildsEUR/USD has punched through the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1744) of the July 2023–October 2023 decline, signaling strong bullish continuation. The breakout above the recent swing high near 1.1576 confirms the uptrend is gaining traction, supported by rising moving averages.
The 50-day SMA has crossed well above the 200-day SMA, maintaining a strong golden cross structure, reinforcing the bullish bias. Momentum indicators support the advance, with the RSI entering overbought territory at 73.79, and the MACD maintaining a positive spread above the signal line — a classic sign of trend strength rather than imminent reversal.
However, the overbought RSI suggests the pair could face some short-term consolidation or a shallow pullback before targeting the psychological 1.18 handle. Bulls would likely view any dip toward the breakout level (1.1576) as a potential buying opportunity.
As long as EUR/USD holds above that support, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, potentially paving the way for a full retracement toward the 1.19–1.20 zone seen last year.
-MW
$EU (EURUSD) 1H AnalysisEURUSD swept short-term sell-side liquidity and printed a strong displacement above the relative equal highs.
Price is now in premium territory and likely hunting liquidity before rebalancing.
Bias remains bearish if price fails to form higher-timeframe continuation. Ideal setup would be a short from signs of rejection toward 1.17163 FVG zone.