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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/USD - Bullish OutlookPEPPERSTONE:EURUSD This analysis is based on the application of Elliott Wave principles for the EUR/USD market on a weekly timeframe. 💡 Wave Identification: Corrective Cycle (ABC): After a peak marked by wave B, the market completed a 5-wave downward structure (waves 1 to 5), forming wave C, signaling a possible end of the correction. Potential Reversal Zone (2/B): The current point is a strategic level where a bullish rebound is anticipated. 📊 Projection: A bullish impulse is expected from point C. The initial target lies in the 1.1140 - 1.1217 zone, corresponding to key resistance levels and Fibonacci projections. 🧠 Conclusion: A breakout above 1.0440 could confirm a significant bullish impulse, suggesting buyers are regaining control. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Long
by Trwin
What Will Trigger the Next Big Move?The US dollar had a bit of a mixed week, ending a little lower than where it started. But don't worry, it's still showing signs of strength! The market is a bit jumpy right now, with lots of things happening around the world. We've got the US and China still figuring out their trade deal, some interesting US job numbers and everyone's waiting to see what happens with inflation. Let's break down what's going on and what it might mean for FX market this week. US and China: Still Talking, Still Uncertain The US and China are still trying to work out a trade deal, but it's not easy. Every time there's a bit of news, the market reacts. The dollar got stronger at first when the US announced new tariffs on some Chinese goods, but then it weakened again when it seemed like maybe they were getting closer to a deal. This back and forth is making the market a bit nervous, and we might see more ups and downs in the dollar and other currencies until things settle down. US Jobs: A Mixed Bag, But Still Pretty Good The latest US job numbers were a bit confusing. The unemployment rate dropped to 4%, which is great news for the dollar buyers, but the number of new jobs created wasn't as high as everyone expected. However, wages went up more than expected, which means people have more money to spend. This could lead to higher inflation, which the Fed is keeping a close eye on. This week, we'll get more information about the job market with the JOLTs report, which will give us a better idea of how healthy the job market really is. Inflation: The Big Question Mark Inflation is a big deal for the Federal Reserve (Fed), and everyone's waiting to see what happens with the CPI data this week. Inflation has been pretty close to the Fed's 2% target, but it might be starting to go up. If inflation is higher than expected, it might take even longer for FED to deliver the rate cut. This delay in easing could make the dollar stronger. On the other side, If inflation disappoints, the market could react negatively, as the dollar's recent strength is heavily reliant on the expectation of a hawkish Fed. Dollar's Next Move: Which Way Will It Go? The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar value against other currencies, ended the week a little lower. This shows how uncertain things are right now. The DXY had a good run earlier this year, but now it's taking a breather. What happens next depends a lot on the inflation data and whether the US and China can make a deal. If you look at the charts, the DXY is hanging around the 108.00 level. The DXY's ability to maintain support above the 108.00-107.50 zone will be crucial in deciding its near-term trajectory. A sustained break below this zone could signal a shift in momentum, while a hold above would keep the bullish outlook. Euro and Pound: Facing Some Challenges The euro and the pound are both having a bit of a tough time right now. The Eurozone economy is slowing down, and the European Central Bank (ECB) isn't likely to make any big changes to its policies anytime soon. This could make the euro weaker, especially against the dollar. The pound is also facing problems, with the UK economy slowing down and inflation still sticking around. This is called stagflation, and it's not a good situation. We'll get some important data about the UK economy this week, which will give us a better idea of what might happen to the pound. From a technical perspective, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are looking very bearish. The euro is getting close to the 1.0280 level, and if it breaks below, the market will likely target 1.0200 next. Meanwhile, the pound is already struggling to hold above the 1.2400 support level. A break below could send it down to 1.2250 or even 1.2100, especially if the UK economic data released this week is worse than expected. Swiss Franc: The Wild Card The Swiss franc is a bit of a wild card right now. Inflation in Switzerland is really low, which is worrying the Swiss National Bank (SNB). They've been trying to keep the franc from getting too strong, but it's not easy. They might even have to use negative interest rates, which would be a pretty big deal for the franc and other currencies. Technically, USD/CHF has been trading in a range between 0.9000 and 0.9200 since the beginning of 2025. Within this range, there's a smaller zone with resistance at 0.9130 and support at 0.9050. If the price breaks above 0.9130, we could see the dollar continue higher toward the top of the trading zone, especially since the dollar is strong right now. There's also a chance that we could see a breakout above the whole range this week if the US inflation data is higher than expected. So, make sure you're keeping an eye on the economic calendar! What to Watch This Week This week is going to be another exciting one for the markets! Traders need to keep a close eye on the US-China trade talks, the US inflation data, and the UK GDP data . And don't forget about the Swiss franc! Things could change quickly, so it's important to stay informed and be ready to react. Disclaimer: This article is just for informational purposes and shouldn't be taken as financial advice.
Short
by E8Markets
1
Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has broken out of the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0389 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.0331 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Take profit: 1.0457 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD Trend Analysis!Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Let me share my personal view on EUR/USD with you. Based on the EUR/USD chart, I expect the price to push upward toward the level of 1.03493. After reaching this level, I anticipate it to resume its downward movement. My first target for the drop is 1.01978, followed by the second target at 1.00938. However, if EUR/USD breaks above the 1.04340 level in the 1-hour timeframe, I expect further upward movement toward 1.05673. Expectation: Bullish Scenario: Break above 1.04340 targeting 1.05673. Bearish Scenario: Drop after hitting 1.03493, targeting 1.01978 and then 1.00938. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 1.03493, 1.04340, 1.05673 Support: 1.01978, 1.00938
Short
by Disco-Dave
1
EURUSD - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 12.02.25)Overall Trend & Context: The pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and we are now waiting for the lower time frames to shift in accordance with the narrative. Technical Findings: Price is at a daily level of supply (as well as refined zones down to the 15m & 5m) LTF oversold conditions. We could still see further upward movement so will wait for either a break at 1.03650 or for our OANDA:GBPUSD trade to run into profits (or both). Potential Scenarios: For now I will only be considering shorts. Risk accordingly and be safe for CPI today.
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
EURUSD 1H Death Cross waiting for the perfect Sell.The EURUSD pair completed a 1H Death Cross on today's opening, the first such formation since January 30. Given that we are currently within a Channel Down pattern similar to January's Death Cross, we expect the current formation to follow the trend of the former. After a short-term rebound above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line), the previous Channel Down declined aggressively to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This gives us a new bearish target at 1.01500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EUR/USD Correction UP#trading_idea #EURUSD 💡 💸 Euro Outlook On the 4H chart, the price is testing the resistance zone at 1.03726. MACD and Parabolic SAR suggest a potential upward movement. However, the pair remains below the 100-period moving average (MA100). 🔼If the price breaks up the resistance at 1.03726, further rise towards 1.0401 is likely. 🔽Alternatively, in case of false breakout, slide towards 1.034 support and lower is possible. 🔷 😎 Choose "👍" if you expect a price will rise and "👎" if you expect a decline.
Long
by sabiotrade